Previously the "Convince me Allen won't suck" thread, now the... "you're welcome" thread

[JohnC]

21 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

I think there is a difference between scouting position players and scouting QB's. I'm not convinced the Bills have anyone that knows how to scout QB's. I'd love to be proven wrong but who on their staff is a QB guru? It's not OC Dabol, he has coached some of the worst QB's in league history. It's not Beane who admittedly had nothing to do with the drafting of Cam Newton. It's nobody that was here last year when they took Peterman or in 2013 when they took EJ. I'm not sure they know what a good QB looks like

I'm sure they know what a bad qb looks like. That's why it is a priority for them to find a qb in this draft. 

[Wily Dog]

23 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I'm sure they know what a bad qb looks like. That's why it is a priority for them to find a qb in this draft. 

Gotcha !

[metzelaars_lives]

1 hour ago, DougFlutie7 said:

He’s gonna be a bust. I saw him play in person and he was absolutely terrible. Don’t give me the WR were not getting open crap. They were WIDE open and Allen just kept missing them. I wouldn’t draft Josh Allen in the 7th round. Beane is the first GM I have believed in, in about 20 years. There’s no way he’s picking Allen. If he does I will lose all hope and Beane will have ust pinched his ticket out of town. 

What game did you go to?  I’ve seen him play in person four times and he was good to great in all four.

[17 Josh Allen]

1 hour ago, DougFlutie7 said:

He’s gonna be a bust. I saw him play in person and he was absolutely terrible. Don’t give me the WR were not getting open crap. They were WIDE open and Allen just kept missing them. I wouldn’t draft Josh Allen in the 7th round. Beane is the first GM I have believed in, in about 20 years. There’s no way he’s picking Allen. If he does I will lose all hope and Beane will have ust pinched his ticket out of town. 

You could not be more wrong. This guy is the real deal and if I had to bet Allen and Rudolph and Mayfield will end up being the best QB’s in this draft class. Allen has hall of fame talent. Just wait and see. I also believe that Allen is the Bills targeted QB they want. 

[kota]

He won't.

[HappyDays]

 

This should make everyone feel better

[LeGOATski]

Trade back to 16 and take Josh Allen, just like they did with EJ.

 

Sounds good. 

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

This should make everyone feel better

You are working yourself into an unnecessary state of agitation with the thought of Josh Allen being drafted by the Bills. This regime is far more rigorous than the Nix regime was when evaluating and drafting players. When the Bills traded down last year to get another qb it was with the intention of using it as an asset to select a qb in the next more qb rich draft (this year). Without a doubt they have since their arrival emphasized the importance getting this qb decision right. 

 

My point is that if this organization decides to draft Allen then it will be with a lot of effort, thought and examination that went into that crucial decision. If they believed that Allen was naturally inaccurate or that his mechanical flaws weren't fixable I doubt that they would select him. 

 

I want to warn you that Leroi is back on site. He has been pardoned. You need to know that a rumor has been circulating and getting louder that his first prediction based on an anonymous source is that the Bills are going to move up and draft Josh Allen. Please don't blame the messenger. 

[LeGOATski]

3 minutes ago, JohnC said:

You are working yourself into an unnecessary state of agitation with the thought of Josh Allen being drafted by the Bills. This regime is far more rigorous than the Nix regime was when evaluating and drafting players. When the Bills traded down last year to get another qb it was with the intention of using it as an asset to select a qb in the next more qb rich draft (this year). Without a doubt they have since their arrival emphasized the importance getting this qb decision right. 

 

My point is that if this organization decides to draft Allen then it will be with a lot of effort, thought and examination that went into that crucial decision. If they believed that Allen was naturally inaccurate or that his mechanical flaws weren't fixable I doubt that they would select him. 

 

I want to warn you that Leroi is back on site. He has been pardoned. You need to know that a rumor has been circulating and getting louder that his first prediction based on an anonymous source is that the Bills are going to move up and draft Josh Allen. Please don't blame the messenger. 

I convinced myself that EJ could become a good QB. I can do it again, goddammit.

[JohnC]

Just now, LeGOATski said:

I convinced myself that EJ could become a good QB. I can do it again, goddammit.

EJ was a third or fourth round talent drafted in the first round. If Allen is drafted I would support the selection. 

[LeGOATski]

Just now, JohnC said:

EJ was a third or fourth round talent drafted in the first round. If Allen is drafted I would support the selection. 

Others said he was a first round talent. Others say Josh Allen is a third round talent. This is all speculation, John. Informed speculation that goes both ways because QB prospects are so hard to judge. 

 

We just have to be honest with ourselves. We don't have to simply trust the think tank at OBD. Even with all the time and energy they put into this decision, they could still get it wrong. 

 

When it's game time we'll see what happens.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

4 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

Trade back to 16 and take Josh Allen, just like they did with EJ.

 

Sounds good. 

The definition of insanity!

[Doc Brown]

 

Here's a decent breakdown of his strengths and weaknesses.  This guy has him as a late 2nd round prospect.

[Thrivefourfive]

Allen is destined to be the most talented QB in the league.

 

He’ll suck if he throws an uncatchable ball...because he’s throw it too hard. Have you ever seen a case where a QB is unsuccessful in the NFL because his arm is too strong? Me neither.

 

I’m not talking about accuracy issues, just velocity. 

 

It’s not going to happen. His receivers will adjust and learn to get their hands up quicker...ifhe keeps hitting them in the chest and helmet. 

 

Defensive backs will never adjust to his arm

strength. 

 

Allen will be worth the farm.

[Thurman#1]

On 4/15/2018 at 3:02 AM, Tyrod's friend said:

So, with that, I am done going over this idea with you.

Hope you do not lose power today!

and ... with a sense of humor ...

 

 

We do indeed have a failure to communicate. Sorry, but your point was extremely unclear to me, even after I went back and read all of your last four posts on the subject. I don't think anyone can understand what your main point is.

 

A while back you said this, "I'll say that Matt [Stafford] is the one guy that did improve his % in the pros ... after he was in Detroit for 8 years." And now when I point out that Favre's first season of play in the NFL was at a much higher completion percentage than his college stats apparently I missed the point about senior improvement. OK, what then is the point? Because Favre's senior improvement was less than one percent. So .....?

 

If you can explain it in two or three sentences, I'd maybe be interested in talking about it. But so far you're doing just the opposite, picking one thing here, one thing there and ending up with no coherent point.

 

Fair enough if you don't want to clarify, but if so don't expect people to engage or be interested. You've noticed it's only me replying for a few days now, right?

Edited April 16, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

On 4/15/2018 at 4:00 AM, kdiggz said:

I think there is a difference between scouting position players and scouting QB's. I'm not convinced the Bills have anyone that knows how to scout QB's. I'd love to be proven wrong but who on their staff is a QB guru? It's not OC Dabol, he has coached some of the worst QB's in league history. It's not Beane who admittedly had nothing to do with the drafting of Cam Newton. It's nobody that was here last year when they took Peterman or in 2013 when they took EJ. I'm not sure they know what a good QB looks like

 

 

Coaching some of the worst QBs in league history doesn't mean you're a bad coach. Sometimes good coaches coach bad players and what results is an improved but still bad player. Is there anyone Daboll has coached who was bad under Daboll but good under someone else?

 

As for scouting QBs, Beane and McDermott were there when the Panthers chose Newton. I wouldn't be thrilled with Newton but he's sure better than we have had in a very long time. He had one year where he was league MVP. He's been a lot worse since then but picking him was a good decision at that time. And we don't know yet whether or not Peterman was a good decision. Way too early to make that call. We sure know he wasn't ready last year but that's all we know for sure.

 

 

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

 

Here's a decent breakdown of his strengths and weaknesses.  This guy has him as a late 2nd round prospect.

 

Yeah, that guy has him as a 2nd round prospect based on the fact that he will have to sit for a year or two. Any team that grades guys down that much for having to sit will and should avoid him as a first round option. But if you're willing to sit him and think his long-term chances are really good, he'd look like a 1st rounder to you. The need to sit him should absolutely be a factor in whether your team is willing to pick him early.

Edited April 16, 2018 by Thurman#1

[JaCrispy]

I’m trying to convince myself that Allen is better than he looks just in case the Bills draft him... I just don’t want the Bills being the butt of all jokes on draft night...and it would certainly be nice for a change to actually enjoy the Bills picking their franchise QB for a change...I always seem to cringe whenever they draft a guy.

[Domdab99]

On 3/22/2018 at 2:59 AM, Elite Poster said:

If Josh Allen were 2-3 inches shorter and about .2-.3 slower with his 40, and female, he would probably not be drafted. 

 

 

 

fyp

[Tyrod's friend]

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

. You've noticed it's only me replying for a few days now, right?

Yeah, not concerned about that part. My point is kind of boring and not particularly engaging, and it might not get a response from others. Besides I'm too f'in verbose.

Side note: I realize there is a sort of underlying goal here of acquiring broad respect here. Basically what I see from posters is that respect is only gained when others agree with you. If others agree with you, you probably are echoing the same groupthink that occurs in the broader world and not expanding discussion. (Note: I don't think I'm special, but I have always loved the Patton line - if everyone is thinking the same thing, somebody isn't thinking.)

***

 

But since you sort of asked for a response ...

May I point out that finding "one-offs" is absurdity. Nothing is absolutely universal and of course you'll find singular exceptions. That hardly makes what I am saying untrue.
 

Basic hypothesis by average fan: QBs have seen their completion percentage improve when they get to the pros. Therefore, they have become more accurate.

Here's the bullet points:

• Sequential growth (comp %) only happens at the collegiate level. Jared Goff would be an example of collegiate growth; Matt Stafford, too.
• Once a QB reaches the pros, there is veritably no track record of sequential growth in accuracy. When it occurs, it happens years after they've been in the league.
• It strikes me that the improvement then is the result of the many variables involved, not inherent to QB ability.
• One time improvement is NOT growth, it is an output of changes in the many other variables that make up for completion percentage. Not the least of these are surrounding talent or limiting the required output of the QB (scheme/responsibility). In point of fact, players that show a one season spurt only to recede underlies the fact that no QB can do this.. 
• Obviously, more track record is better than less.
• Failure to grow at the final/senior reason should likely be a huge, huge red flag.
• Much of this is the result of not only re-wiring muscle memory but the complexity of trying to do that while increasing the speed with which the QB needs to process information. 

Why is this relevant/important to me:

• There is incredible noise regarding how Josh Allen or other QBs can improve their accuracy in the pros. Thinking his accuracy will improve is a non starter to me. 
• The importance of muscle memory cannot be understated here. I expect that studying the predictive nature of 1200-1600 college passes would be pretty enlightening but that is way beyond my scope.
• Can a QB improve in other ways? Perhaps. I haven't looked at this, but if they can I would focus on only the things a QB can impact by personal choices - sacks taken, interceptions thrown, and passes completed. YPC, YPA, TD % ... these are almost always scheme/teammate impacted variables. But expecting a QB to improve their accuracy seems clear to me. 
  
  Singular assumption:

• Accuracy is to be determined by completion percentage. This is the basis for conversation around Allen.

It doesn't say anything that we don't already know on some levels. Wild college QBs would need more infrastructure to be successful. Someone that improves sequentially in college is most likely to be successful in the pros. More college experience > less. Adds zero to the conversation. OTOH and to be fair to myself, there are plenty of people here that say Josh Allen can become more accurate. That's simply bull$hit. He's not going to do something that Russell f'n Wilson couldn't do.

It's not about completing more or less than 60% of your passes. It's about improvement, it's about doing it over time, it's about creating the proper muscle memory when you get to the pros because the time won't be there to make changes that will make you more accurate. The whole thing elevated my concern about waiting to take Mike White or Luke Falk in a later round. It suggested to me that Lamar Jackson might be better than what I gave him credit.

Cheers.

EDIT: From Sean Payton, today: "The pressure to get a quarterback is so great in this league, I get that. But we can’t create ’em."
 

Edited April 16, 2018 by Tyrod's friend

[rodneykm]

Sorry, I can't help you with either him or Darnold.