Previously the "Convince me Allen won't suck" thread, now the... "you're welcome" thread

JoeF · April 12, 2018

7 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

i had to go back to this thread today with all of these rumors swirling. everyone just breathe. at the very least he's going to be better than anything we have had in a long time, although that's not a high bar to reach

Here would be my case for Josh Allen. And let me say up front from a pure passer and reading defenses perspective -- I like Josh Rosen the best of the top four.

I admittedly haven't watched a lot of film, but what I have watched his mechanics were bad and they are all over the place. Sometimes throwing from his toes, sometimes feet just plain pointed in the wrong direction, sometimes off his back foot. Sometimes this happens under pressure, but sometimes his mechanics slip while not under pressure. The thing is, the ball still comes out with fire and it's a quick release. Mechanics you can correct. Footwork you can correct. A strong arm you can't create.

So the real questions with me are...

1) Can the mechanics be corrected? He had good mechanics from the 15 or so throws from his pro day (out of 60) that I saw on-line. There were only 3 inaccurate throws against air. You might say "anyone can do that" but of the 15 throws or so I saw the mechanics were consistent. Maybe muscle memory has set in. Contrast this to Cardale Jones pro day three years ago and mechanics were still bad. My worry here is the Bills really don't have a QB technician on staff. Maybe bringing in Ken Dorsey -- who is currently Assistant Athletic Director at FIU or contracting with Jordan Palmer will help.

2) Jordan Palmer, his mentor, uses a term called "throw guys open". In the pros there are tight windows but if receivers and QBs know each other well -- a throw can create separation. It could be a back shoulder or a sudden quick move right or left to gain a separation. Its a subtle change to a route that the QB has to see then gun. Allen more than anyone in this draft has the arm to throw guys open. Its less anticipation then it is "See and Gun". The issue I see here is the Bills o-line as currently situated will not allow a lot of this.

So not my favorite..but as you said--better than what we have had.

jrober38 · April 12, 2018

8 minutes ago, JoeF said:

Here would be my case for Josh Allen. And let me say up front from a pure passer and reading defenses perspective -- I like Josh Rosen the best of the top four.

I admittedly haven't watched a lot of film, but what I have watched his mechanics were bad and they are all over the place. Sometimes throwing from his toes, sometimes feet just plain pointed in the wrong direction, sometimes off his back foot. Sometimes this happens under pressure, but sometimes his mechanics slip while not under pressure. The thing is, the ball still comes out with fire and it's a quick release. Mechanics you can correct. Footwork you can correct. A strong arm you can't create.

So the real questions with me are...

1) Can the mechanics be corrected? He had good mechanics from the 15 or so throws from his pro day (out of 60) that I saw on-line. There were only 3 inaccurate throws against air. You might say "anyone can do that" but of the 15 throws or so I saw the mechanics were consistent. Maybe muscle memory has set in. Contrast this to Cardale Jones pro day three years ago and mechanics were still bad. My worry here is the Bills really don't have a QB technician on staff. Maybe bringing in Ken Dorsey -- who is currently Assistant Athletic Director at FIU or contracting with Jordan Palmer will help.

2) Jordan Palmer, his mentor, uses a term called "throw guys open". In the pros there are tight windows but if receivers and QBs know each other well -- a throw can create separation. It could be a back shoulder or a sudden quick move right or left to gain a separation. Its a subtle change to a route that the QB has to see then gun. Allen more than anyone in this draft has the arm to throw guys open. Its less anticipation then it is "See and Gun". The issue I see here is the Bills o-line as currently situated will not allow a lot of this.

So not my favorite..but as you said--better than what we have had.

Mechanics and footwork can be refined. They can't be taught from ground zero. Time after time guys with accuracy issues revert back to their old ways once there are defenders on the field. Accuracy is the hardest thing to fix in a prospect. It can be refined and improved my a small degree, but rarely do inaccurate QBs become highly accurate.

#2 doesn't make any sense. How can a QB coach be saying his anticipation has improved when he hasn't played a single snap against a real defense? Pretty much every big, strong armed QB looks good throwing against air. The issues return when there are real defenders on the field trying to stop them.

Josh Allen might become a good NFL QB. I think the odds of that happening are really low though (less than 10%).

K D · April 12, 2018

2 minutes ago, JoeF said:

Here would be my case for Josh Allen. And let me say up front from a pure passer and reading defenses perspective -- I like Josh Rosen the best of the top four.

I admittedly haven't watched a lot of film, but what I have watched his mechanics were bad and they are all over the place. Sometimes throwing from his toes, sometimes feet just plain pointed in the wrong direction, sometimes off his back foot. Sometimes this happens under pressure, but sometimes his mechanics slip while not under pressure. The thing is, the ball still comes out with fire and it's a quick release. Mechanics you can correct. Footwork you can correct. A strong arm you can't create.

So the real questions with me are...

1) Can the mechanics be corrected? He had good mechanics from the 15 or so throws from his pro day (out of 60) that I saw on-line. There were only 3 inaccurate throws against air. You might say "anyone can do that" but of the 15 throws or so I saw the mechanics were consistent. Maybe muscle memory has set in. Contrast this to Cardale Jones pro day three years ago and mechanics were still bad. My worry here is the Bills really don't have a QB technician on staff. Maybe bringing in Ken Dorsey -- who is currently Assistant Athletic Director at FIU or contracting with Jordan Palmer will help.

2) Jordan Palmer, his mentor, uses a term called "throw guys open". In the pros there are tight windows but if receivers and QBs know each other well -- a throw can create separation. It could be a back shoulder or a sudden quick move right or left to gain a separation. Its a subtle change to a route that the QB has to see then gun. Allen more than anyone in this draft has the arm to throw guys open. Its less anticipation then it is "See and Gun". The issue I see here is the Bills o-line as currently situated will not allow a lot of this.

So not my favorite..but as you said--better than what we have had.

I agree with this. He has poor footwork at times and gets skittish in the pocket if there is any pressure. He wants to start running and then he wants to sling the ball across his body. What Josh Rosen said in an interview was so amazingly accurate: a QB needs to be "monotonously consistent." Every throw needs to look the same, from your mechanics, your feet, your arm position. That's what the greats practice. You basically have to be a robot.

I also agree that I don't think we have anyone on staff to be a QB guru. We also don't have a veteran QB that can work with the young man. AJ McCarron will be a good backup but he doesn't have the experience or intelligence like someone like Fitz or McCown have. We don't have the right structure in place to develop a QB and this is a huge concern of mine.

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

Mechanics and footwork can be refined. They can't be taught from ground zero. Time after time guys with accuracy issues revert back to their old ways once there are defenders on the field. Accuracy is the hardest thing to fix in a prospect. It can be refined and improved my a small degree, but rarely do inaccurate QBs become highly accurate.

This is very true. You can try and teach good mechanics but once there is a 300 lb lineman running at you it is easy to fall back into your old habits. It's fight or flight and your body is just trying to survive. You can slightly tweak things but to completely change someone's mechanics is a fool's task

Thurman#1 · April 12, 2018

On 3/24/2018 at 1:12 PM, Tyrod's friend said:

Sorry - no I didn't. I am NOT talking about college stats; that's an absurd argument and not one I was making.

Professional numbers. If you weren't in such a rush to try to prove me wrong you wouldn't be trotting out what Russell Wilson did at Wisconsin.

Look, the whole point of where I am going is that people here and across football are saying that Josh Allen will magically improve his stats when he gets to the professional ranks, that he needs to work with somebody and he'll do this magic leap in his completion percentage. I have proven this over and again, USING YOUR EXAMPLES, that this simply DOES NOT HAPPEN.

Did Allen's receivers drop the ball? Let's turn it around. Did Allen throw catchable balls? Have you ever tried to catch a 65 MPH ball bear handed? There's a reason rocket arms have bad completion percentages. Joe Montana. Chad Pennington. Tom Brady. None of these guys have a rocket but they throw a catchable ball.

You know who does have a rocket? Matt Stafford, and for most of his career he had Megatron as his target. After he maintained the starting gig in Detroit in '11 and for the next four years he completed 60% of his passes. Oddly enough, the same 60% he completed when he was at Georgia (and for those that don't remember, it was the most talented offensive teams in the history of football. Massaquo, AJ Green, Knowshon Moreno. You've heard of his LT - Cordy Glenn).

I'll say that Matt is the one guy that did improve his % in the pros ... after he was in Detroit for 8 years.

SO please, don't tell me I'm purposely dense when you didn't take the time to read what I was saying.

Stafford for one, as you pointed out.

Tyrod, for another, completed 57.1% in college.

Brady completed 61.9% in college, whereas since 2007 he's been well above that.

Matt Ryan completed 59.9% in college.

Brees 61.1% to 66.9%.

It happens.

You say that you have proved that it doesn't happen, and I disagree with that. While you did a lot of interesting research there and wrote a fine post (kudos), what you really showed is that often when it happens it's not so difficult to justify it. You can say, "well, it was the scheme switch," or "that only happened later in his career," or whatever. But those are justifications.

I think you are also artificially narrowing the parameters by demanding that the whole improvement show up in the new guy's rookie year. Sometimes it won't, but it does show up and make him productive.

Edited April 12, 2018 by Thurman#1

BuffaloBillsGospel · April 12, 2018

On 3/22/2018 at 4:00 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

Seriously.

I know that people here really believe in him... why?

Plenty of past NFL players have been drafted for physical potential (Ryan Leaf, RG3, Jamarcus Russell, Blaine Gabbert, Blake Bortles, etc) and have simply flamed out.

I've never seen a college QB so devoid of college production being propped up this much based off of what I can only believe to be purely physical potential.

It's head scratching and infuriating because this guy looks like a project 2nd or 3rd round QB at best, to me.

What are people focused on? Throws he can make??? Haven't we had enough of these project QBs that are "balls of clay" for us to mold?

There's something I'm missing.

What is it?

I know there isn't a single QB in the NFL HOF with his forgettable production from a second-rate college football program like Wyoming. Is he supposedly going to break that trend?

What the hell... someone explain this to me so I can get behind him sooner rather than later if we draft him...

hopefully, we don't.

There is no telling who will suck and who will excel in the NFL as a QB, I think we should just be excited that the Bills are finally talking about QB's.

ExWNYer · April 12, 2018

On 3/22/2018 at 4:00 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

Seriously.

I know that people here really believe in him... why?

Plenty of past NFL players have been drafted for physical potential (Ryan Leaf, RG3, Jamarcus Russell, Blaine Gabbert, Blake Bortles, etc) and have simply flamed out.

I've never seen a college QB so devoid of college production being propped up this much based off of what I can only believe to be purely physical potential.

It's head scratching and infuriating because this guy looks like a project 2nd or 3rd round QB at best, to me.

What are people focused on? Throws he can make??? Haven't we had enough of these project QBs that are "balls of clay" for us to mold?

There's something I'm missing.

What is it?

I know there isn't a single QB in the NFL HOF with his forgettable production from a second-rate college football program like Wyoming. Is he supposedly going to break that trend?

What the hell... someone explain this to me so I can get behind him sooner rather than later if we draft him...

hopefully, we don't.

I don't think that anyone will convince you that he won't suck if you believe that he will. So many people are so firmly entrenched on their opinions on these QBs, good & bad, that no amount of video, stats, or politicking will change anything. If they take him & you still aren't convinced, I hope you can learn how to deal with it. No matter who we like or dislike, one thing is certain...they're taking THEIR guy. GO BILLS!!!

Tyrod's friend · April 14, 2018

On 4/12/2018 at 10:06 AM, Thurman#1 said:

Stafford for one, as you pointed out.

Tyrod, for another, completed 57.1% in college.

Brady completed 61.9% in college, whereas since 2007 he's been well above that.

Matt Ryan completed 59.9% in college.

Brees 61.1% to 66.9%.

It happens.

You say that you have proved that it doesn't happen, and I disagree with that. While you did a lot of interesting research there and wrote a fine post (kudos), what you really showed is that often when it happens it's not so difficult to justify it. You can say, "well, it was the scheme switch," or "that only happened later in his career," or whatever. But those are justifications.

I think you are also artificially narrowing the parameters by demanding that the whole improvement show up in the new guy's rookie year. Sometimes it won't, but it does show up and make him productive.

Thank you and as always, welcoming a civil discourse. Apologies, this is going to be a long response and other than Thurman#1, feel free to pass on my bull$hit.

It really is a work in progress, so I've refined what my thoughts are here. Again, fans are saying completion percentage can improve/cannot improve/accuracy is the most important thing. I am making no assertions about INT%, YPC, YPA, QBR.

First, a leap into the first year is certainly not only possible but even likely. Let's call it survivor bias; the rookie QB that continues to complete 54%-56% of his passes in his first training camp is unlikely to be remembered. Obviously Baker Mayfield can decline his completion percentage quite a bit from 70% and still keep a starting job.
I do like the parameters limited.
Tyrod ... doesn't he fit my parameters like dead on? He doesn't assert himself sufficiently for four or five years. Then he puts up a 64, 62, 63 per cent completion percentages; his total Buffalo experience is 63%. We could talk endlessly about his third year, the loss of WRs and the OC change but let's not get stuck in the weeds. Again, almost a poster boy for what I am trying to say - his senior year in the ACC he improved considerably.

Second, there is a reason for saying things happen later in a career ... that's not justification. It strikes me as a natural flow from muscle memory.

The one thing you hear about in every camp, every year is the revelation of the speed of the game at the pro level. Let's call this a fundamental analysis as opposed to a statistical analysis.To think that a QB will process that, in addition to everything else they face and then on top of that alter their muscle memory strikes me as absurd.
To revert to a statistical analysis, when you use a resource like Pro Football Reference, there is almost literally no standard deviation in years 1-4. That has to mean something. They might talk about the game "slowing down" (and that might be reflected in things like QBR), but completion percentage buttressed my point: there are synapses that are a decade in production. You don't change them quickly.
Within this paradigm then there is the occasional second year leap. But (I think, I do not know) it almost inevitably turns out to be unsustainable. Doesn't that also say something to the casual football fan? It very much strikes me as the exception that proves the rule.
Caveat: I don't have full access to some of the statistical webpages that show a pro QBs ball placement. So I am admitting I am not accounting for some statistical variances.
To the opposite side, I think that college QBs that improve - especially in their senior/last year - are showing the converse of this idea (again, TT was significantly better in his senior year). They have natural ability and they are asserting it over others. Russell Wilson is my favorite example of this. He changes conferences and utterly dominates the Big Ten. Goes to the Pros, wins a Super Bowl championship almost immediately. But outside of his fourth year in the pros, his completion percentage has been 63% with literally no deviation at all.
On the whole this gives me pause over my own favorite player in the draft. How will Baker Mayfield react when he can't impose his will on the game, when he doesn't improve? In my mind Tom Brady highlights a limited list of players capable of continually evolving. Will failing to improve destroy Mayfield's renowned self-confidence? On some level Leaf's questions are warranted.

It isn't a silver bullet obviously and I would have had considerable concern over Matt Ryan - even though he sort of hits my parameters. He's clearly an example that was a complete player when he came out of college and it strikes me that he was already asserting himself over the game to the extent he could have at his program at Boston College. I would have been wrong; but on the other hand, can you honestly say that Matt Ryan improved his completion percentage over his first four years? No way.

Part of this gets down to this: is completion percentage even a relevant stat? That's a different question.

I'm not often humble, and I'll admit that it isn't earth shattering. Some of this stuff is derivative; some of it is applying stuff we know in a different way (improving seniors/extensive history). I do think it is relevant. I think it leads me to be more interested in Lamar Jackson and Mason Rudolph than I would be. It makes me question delaying taking a QB because my solution is Mike White or Luke Falk.

The difference in my take is this: if we take one of those last two, or Josh Allen, I think Bills fans will be utterly right to have a quick trigger on them if they aren't completing at least 59% of their passes by November. We will have made a mistake. That completion percentage is not getting better in the next four years and you have yourself a lemon.

Cheers,
Alex

jrober38 · April 14, 2018

On 4/12/2018 at 9:22 AM, kdiggz said:

i had to go back to this thread today with all of these rumors swirling. everyone just breathe. at the very least he's going to be better than anything we have had in a long time, although that's not a high bar to reach

This isn't true.

Josh Allen's floor is as low as EJ Manuel's.

Tyrod's friend · April 14, 2018

3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

This isn't true.

Josh Allen's floor is as low as EJ Manuel's.

I think you are being optimistic. Josh Allen's floor is Ryan Leaf - but he's probably the only guy in this draft that could be better than Brett Favre.

Edited April 14, 2018 by Tyrod's friend

K D · April 14, 2018

3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

This isn't true.

Josh Allen's floor is as low as EJ Manuel's.

you might be right. now i'm scared. big, mobile, strong arm, big hands, perfect for the Buffalo cold weather. also a project that some people project to be a 3rd rounder. yep, he is EJ Manuel

jrober38 · April 14, 2018

Just now, kdiggz said:

you might be right. now i'm scared. big, mobile, strong arm, big hands, perfect for the Buffalo cold weather. also a project that some people project to be a 3rd rounder. yep, he is EJ Manuel

I think he's Jake Locker/Kyle Boller with less mobility.

LEBills · April 14, 2018

17 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

I think he's Jake Locker/Kyle Boller with less mobility.

I don’t get those comparisons. He is closer to Locker than Boller because Locker also had that baseball overstriding thing when he threw (before he retired early, Locker looked like he was turning a corner). He is way better than Boller ever was in college (check the stats), don’t see the similarities except for their stature.

I think his best comparison is a less experienced Jay Cutler. Dragged a bad team through its conference with a huge arm and good athleticism. Less than 60% career completion percentage.

If Cutler wasn’t such a prick he may have been a really great QB too.

Edited April 14, 2018 by LEBills

jrober38 · April 14, 2018

20 minutes ago, LEBills said:

I don’t get those comparisons. He is closer to Locker than Boller because Locker also had that baseball overstriding thing when he threw (before he retired early, Locker looked like he was turning a corner). He is way better than Boller ever was in college (check the stats), don’t see the similarities except for their stature.

I think his best comparison is a less experienced Jay Cutler. Dragged a bad team through its conference with a huge arm and good athleticism. Less than 60% career completion percentage.

If Cutler wasn’t such a prick he may have been a really great QB too.

Locker wasn't turning the corner though. His final year he was 58% completions, 6.8 YPA and a QB Rating of 70 which by modern NFL standards his horrendous.

I guess Cutler makes some sense. I don't think he ever had the accuracy problems Allen has. Cutler played on the worst team in the SEC against top defenses every year. Allen played in the Mountain West against horrible competition.

I think that's an apples to oranges comparison. One guy played with bad players against bad players. The other played with bad players against the best players in college football.

Edited April 14, 2018 by jrober38

K D · April 14, 2018

what gives me hope is the 2nd half of the Senior Bowl and the wow factor of the combine and pro day. no other QB makes you go wow when they throw. it's impressive to see. his footwork looks improved since working with Jordan Palmer. it makes me think he is coachable and maybe he just hasn't had good coaching yet. all of these other guys have been going to the Elite 11 and Manning passing camps since they were teenagers. Allen was busy digging irrigation ditches on his farm. could he be a diamond in the rough? it's so unlikely that it makes me nervous but the only thing we can do is hope and pray the Bills have someone on the staff that knows how to put a QB through their paces to see what they are really all about

Thurman#1 · April 14, 2018

1 hour ago, Tyrod's friend said:

Thank you and as always, welcoming a civil discourse. Apologies, this is going to be a long response and other than Thurman#1, feel free to pass on my bull$hit.

It really is a work in progress, so I've refined what my thoughts are here. Again, fans are saying completion percentage can improve/cannot improve/accuracy is the most important thing. I am making no assertions about INT%, YPC, YPA, QBR.

First, a leap into the first year is certainly not only possible but even likely. Let's call it survivor bias; the rookie QB that continues to complete 54%-56% of his passes in his first training camp is unlikely to be remembered. Obviously Baker Mayfield can decline his completion percentage quite a bit from 70% and still keep a starting job.

I do like the parameters limited.

Tyrod ... doesn't he fit my parameters like dead on? He doesn't assert himself sufficiently for four or five years. Then he puts up a 64, 62, 63 per cent completion percentages; his total Buffalo experience is 63%. We could talk endlessly about his third year, the loss of WRs and the OC change but let's not get stuck in the weeds. Again, almost a poster boy for what I am trying to say - his senior year in the ACC he improved considerably.

Second, there is a reason for saying things happen later in a career ... that's not justification. It strikes me as a natural flow from muscle memory.

The one thing you hear about in every camp, every year is the revelation of the speed of the game at the pro level. Let's call this a fundamental analysis as opposed to a statistical analysis.To think that a QB will process that, in addition to everything else they face and then on top of that alter their muscle memory strikes me as absurd.

To revert to a statistical analysis, when you use a resource like Pro Football Reference, there is almost literally no standard deviation in years 1-4. That has to mean something. They might talk about the game "slowing down" (and that might be reflected in things like QBR), but completion percentage buttressed my point: there are synapses that are a decade in production. You don't change them quickly.

Within this paradigm then there is the occasional second year leap. But (I think, I do not know) it almost inevitably turns out to be unsustainable. Doesn't that also say something to the casual football fan? It very much strikes me as the exception that proves the rule.

Caveat: I don't have full access to some of the statistical webpages that show a pro QBs ball placement. So I am admitting I am not accounting for some statistical variances.

To the opposite side, I think that college QBs that improve - especially in their senior/last year - are showing the converse of this idea (again, TT was significantly better in his senior year). They have natural ability and they are asserting it over others. Russell Wilson is my favorite example of this. He changes conferences and utterly dominates the Big Ten. Goes to the Pros, wins a Super Bowl championship almost immediately. But outside of his fourth year in the pros, his completion percentage has been 63% with literally no deviation at all.

On the whole this gives me pause over my own favorite player in the draft. How will Baker Mayfield react when he can't impose his will on the game, when he doesn't improve? In my mind Tom Brady highlights a limited list of players capable of continually evolving. Will failing to improve destroy Mayfield's renowned self-confidence? On some level Leaf's questions are warranted.

It isn't a silver bullet obviously and I would have had considerable concern over Matt Ryan - even though he sort of hits my parameters. He's clearly an example that was a complete player when he came out of college and it strikes me that he was already asserting himself over the game to the extent he could have at his program at Boston College. I would have been wrong; but on the other hand, can you honestly say that Matt Ryan improved his completion percentage over his first four years? No way.

Part of this gets down to this: is completion percentage even a relevant stat? That's a different question.

I'm not often humble, and I'll admit that it isn't earth shattering. Some of this stuff is derivative; some of it is applying stuff we know in a different way (improving seniors/extensive history). I do think it is relevant. I think it leads me to be more interested in Lamar Jackson and Mason Rudolph than I would be. It makes me question delaying taking a QB because my solution is Mike White or Luke Falk.

The difference in my take is this: if we take one of those last two, or Josh Allen, I think Bills fans will be utterly right to have a quick trigger on them if they aren't completing at least 59% of their passes by November. We will have made a mistake. That completion percentage is not getting better in the next four years and you have yourself a lemon.

Cheers,
Alex

Brett Favre

1987 Southern Mississippi 40.7%

1988 Southern Mississippi 55.8%

1989 Southern Mississippi 54.1%

1990 Southern Mississippi 54.5%

1991 Atlanta zero passes thrown

1992 Green Bay 64.1%

Again, sometimes it happens.

And also, particularly if we take Allen but maybe so with any of the top four draft guys, we might easily have him spend a year on the bench. Worked pretty well with Favre, in retrospect, though he spent much of that Atlanta year with his head under a keg, supposedly. Still may have learned a lot, though.

Carson Palmer

59% in college, weirdly he has stats in 5 years at USC, 1998 - 2002. His second year he hit 73.6% but only threw 53 passes, so IMO statistically insignificant. The last 3 years he threw 54.9%, 58.6% and 63.2. Then his first year in the NFL was 60.9% but his 2nd was 67.8%, his career best.

At this point I'm not sure what your point is, exactly, although I do get that you're talking only about completion percentage and that you clearly understand the limits of talking only about that. All cool to that point, but beyond that I've lost track of what your point is as you refine your thoughts.

My point is real simple. No parameters or any of that stuff. Guys sometimes improve in completion percentage from college to the pros. Some immediately. Some later. But improvement happens sometimes. And of course, sometimes it doesn't. That's certainly part of the picture too.

Tyrod's friend · April 14, 2018

11 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Brett Favre

1987 Southern Mississippi 40.7%

1988 Southern Mississippi 55.8%

1989 Southern Mississippi 54.1%

1990 Southern Mississippi 54.5%

1991 Atlanta zero passes thrown

1992 Green Bay 64.1%

Again, sometimes it happens.

And also, particularly if we take Allen but maybe so with any of the top four draft guys, we might easily have him spend a year on the bench. Worked pretty well with Favre, in retrospect, though he spent much of that Atlanta year with his head under a keg, supposedly. Still may have learned a lot, though.

Carson Palmer

59% in college, weirdly he has stats in 5 years at USC, 1998 - 2002. His second year he hit 73.6% but only threw 53 passes, so IMO statistically insignificant. The last 3 years he threw 54.9%, 58.6% and 63.2. Then his first year in the NFL was 60.9% but his 2nd was 67.8%, his career best.

Sorry, but are specifically trying to not hear me say that senior improvement is a key metric here? And again, beyond that I SPECIFICALLY stated that a player can have a sophomore bump, but that bump is NOT SUSTAINED and an indication that players DO NOT IMPROVE THEIR ACCURACY AT THE PROFESSIONAL LEVEL. You LITERALLY could not have taken better example of my points if you had let me make choose the example myself.

It is like you are trying not to hear me. ~ Tyrod's Friend

So, with that, I am done going over this idea with you.

Hope you do not lose power today!

and ... with a sense of humor ...

Edited April 14, 2018 by Tyrod's friend

D. L. Hot-Flamethrower · April 14, 2018

1 hour ago, kdiggz said:

what gives me hope is the 2nd half of the Senior Bowl and the wow factor of the combine and pro day. no other QB makes you go wow when they throw. it's impressive to see. his footwork looks improved since working with Jordan Palmer. it makes me think he is coachable and maybe he just hasn't had good coaching yet. all of these other guys have been going to the Elite 11 and Manning passing camps since they were teenagers. Allen was busy digging irrigation ditches on his farm. could he be a diamond in the rough? it's so unlikely that it makes me nervous but the only thing we can do is hope and pray the Bills have someone on the staff that knows how to put a QB through their paces to see what they are really all about

Please no, not you too!

K D · April 14, 2018

7 minutes ago, horned dogs said:

Please no, not you too!

I'm trying to talk myself into it. I'm having a hard time. This is the best I can come up with. I want Rosen but I do believe they are scared to invest in someone with his injury history and they would want someone more mobile. I would believe it if someone said Darnold and Allen were their top guys. Makes me scared, been watching a lot of film on both trying to figure out why. It's giving me migraines

D. L. Hot-Flamethrower · April 14, 2018

20 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

I'm trying to talk myself into it. I'm having a hard time. This is the best I can come up with. I want Rosen but I do believe they are scared to invest in someone with his injury history and they would want someone more mobile. I would believe it if someone said Darnold and Allen were their top guys. Makes me scared, been watching a lot of film on both trying to figure out why. It's giving me migraines

Rosen or Darnold and take no prisoners. I can't imagine this fan base if they ever took Allen after a tradeup and passed on those 2 guys.

K D · April 14, 2018

5 minutes ago, DougFlutie7 said:

He’s gonna be a bust. I saw him play in person and he was absolutely terrible. Don’t give me the WR were not getting open crap. They were WIDE open and Allen just kept missing them. I wouldn’t draft Josh Allen in the 7th round. Beane is the first GM I have believed in, in about 20 years. There’s no way he’s picking Allen. If he does I will lose all hope and Beane will have ust pinched his ticket out of town.

I think there is a difference between scouting position players and scouting QB's. I'm not convinced the Bills have anyone that knows how to scout QB's. I'd love to be proven wrong but who on their staff is a QB guru? It's not OC Dabol, he has coached some of the worst QB's in league history. It's not Beane who admittedly had nothing to do with the drafting of Cam Newton. It's nobody that was here last year when they took Peterman or in 2013 when they took EJ. I'm not sure they know what a good QB looks like

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Previously the "Convince me Allen won't suck" thread, now the... "you're welcome" thread

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