Convince Me: Why Jackson or Rudolph Should be the Pick at 12 (if no trade up occurs)

[Mojo44]

6 hours ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

Interested in hearing your arguments as to why you feel that Beane should take either Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph at 12, in the event that the Browns and Giants are unwilling to trade out of their spots.

 I’ll respond to the OP with a counter challenge: 

 

 Convince me that the Bills should use up all of their impressive draft capital for one of the top for quarterbacks when there is no compelling reason whatsoever that they are sure things. We are not talking about Manning or  Luck here. So many posters on this site think one of the four are sure thing Hall of Famer’s. Not even close! The team is in such a great position right now to both get their quarterback and fill up many needs with top level players. ......So convince me that they should blow all of their draft picks  on one of these four very risky propositions.

[Buffalo Bills Detective]

11 minutes ago, Mojo44 said:

 I’ll respond to the OP with a counter challenge: 

 

 Convince me that the Bills should use up all of their impressive draft capital for one of the top for quarterbacks when there is no compelling reason whatsoever that they are sure things. We are not talking about Manning or  Luck here. So many posters on this site think one of the four are sure thing Hall of Famer’s. Not even close! The team is in such a great position right now to both get their quarterback and fill up many needs with top level players. ......So convince me that they should blow all of their draft picks  on one of these four very risky propositions.

 

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, DFT said:

Improved stats don’t always equal improved mechanics.  It sometimes means that the coach is doing a good job building around their QB and masking difficiencies, as is (in my opinion) the case with Jackson.   

I'm sick and tired of hearing about "mechanics"!!! Philip Rivers have quirky mechanics. Bernie Koser had quirk mechanics. Kyle Boller had some of the best mechanics. Ryan Leaf was the 2nd QB taken after Peyton Manning because he had the "prototypical" measurements. First and foremost, do you have the will to win. Are you a "football player". Secondly, it's what's between the ears. Can you decipher an opponents defense. Do you know where to go with the football. Finally, CAN YOU MAKE PLAYS!! Jackson, like Deshaun Watson/Baker Mayfield, has been able to do this against some of the toughest competition in NCAA. Watson/Mayfield had better talent helping them. Sometimes it's okay to meddle with a person's "mechanics", sometimes it's not. Larry Bird, Reggie Miller, Jamaal Wilkes had some of the worst mechanics when shooting a basketball yet they're perceived as some of the greatest shooters ever. Can improved mechanics help Lamar, maybe but I need him to be the dynamic playmaker that helped his not so talented (as far as NFL caliber) teams win games. I've seen him do it at Louisville, why can't people envision him doing this with some real talent around him??

21 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

 

Funny how people are praising Jared Goff when many thought he was going to be a BUST.

[Buffalo Bills Detective]

1 minute ago, the skycap said:

I'm sick and tired of hearing about "mechanics"!!! Philip Rivers have quirky mechanics. Bernie Koser had quirk mechanics. Kyle Boller had some of the best mechanics. Ryan Leaf was the 2nd QB taken after Peyton Manning because he had the "prototypical" measurements. First and foremost, do you have the will to win. Are you a "football player". Secondly, it's what's between the ears. Can you decipher an opponents defense. Do you know where to go with the football. Finally, CAN YOU MAKE PLAYS!! Jackson, like Deshaun Watson/Baker Mayfield, has been able to do this against some of the toughest competition in NCAA. Watson/Mayfield had better talent helping them. Sometimes it's okay to meddle with a person's "mechanics", sometimes it's not. Larry Bird, Reggie Miller, Jamaal Wilkes had some of the worst mechanics when shooting a basketball yet they're perceived as some of the greatest shooters ever. Can improved mechanics help Lamar, maybe but I need him to be the dynamic playmaker that helped his not so talented (as far as NFL caliber) teams win games. I've seen him do it at Louisville, why can't people envision him doing this with some real talent around him??

Tough competition like: Duke, Wake Forest, Boston College, Syracuse, Kent State, Murray State?

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

36 minutes ago, Mojo44 said:

 I’ll respond to the OP with a counter challenge: 

 

 Convince me that the Bills should use up all of their impressive draft capital for one of the top for quarterbacks when there is no compelling reason whatsoever that they are sure things. We are not talking about Manning or  Luck here. So many posters on this site think one of the four are sure thing Hall of Famer’s. Not even close! The team is in such a great position right now to both get their quarterback and fill up many needs with top level players. ......So convince me that they should blow all of their draft picks  on one of these four very risky propositions.

I've yet to see anyone say that there are sure HOFers in the draft at QB.

 

I have seen many elite QBs taken at the top of the draft and a higher success rate at finding an elite QB as discussed ad nauseum on this site.

 

I am seeing a lot of hyperbole, BS and complete risk aversion by some.

 

Reminder : "The Settle Strategy" has no guarantees either and a far lower success rate.

 

 

[Solomon Grundy]

9 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

Tough competition like: Duke, Wake Forest, Boston College, Syracuse, Kent State, Murray State?

You're no Columbo!! How about Fl. State, NC State, Clemson(with Watson)!!

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

LOL

 

Who the hell cares about where a guy is projected. Matt Barkley was supposed to be a top 10 pick. He went in the 4th round.  Bryce Petty was supposed to be a 2nd round pick; he went in the 4th round. Where arm chair GMs project a guy to go is about as useless a piece of info as their is. All that matters is where a guy actually gets picked on draft day. 

 

I bring those things up because their pros and cons as prospects are essentially the same.

 

They all had good size.

They all had outstanding college production. 

They all had limited mobility. 

They all had mediocre arms.

They all had limited experience reading the field.

 

Aside from Dalton who was pretty average, all of the guys you named had one elite thing going for them, whether it be accuracy, arm strength or mobility; they all had at least one trait that was well above average if not elite. 

 

Rudolph doesn't have elite accuracy (his deep ball is very good, short and intermediate throws are less consistent).

He doesn't have elite mobility.

He doesn't have elite arm strength. 

 

He's just a guy. You might love him but I see a guy who is going to be nothing more than a backup in the NFL. He was a good college QB who played in a super QB friendly system surrounded by really good NFL talent. Maybe he'll be really good, but I'm not betting on it. I don't see any difference between him and the majority of NFL prospects who never amount to anything. 

Spoken by an arm chair QB judging other armchair QBs.  Classic

[DCOrange]

17 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

Tough competition like: Duke, Wake Forest, Boston College, Syracuse, Kent State, Murray State?

 

I think Baker Mayfield is the only QB that faced more top 30 defenses than Lamar and the average defensive rank of Lamar’s opponents was higher than any of the other top QB prospects. 

[Mojo44]

43 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

 

 Those are some nice photos but it’s not convincing at all in terms of my argument. Posting those photos in no way shape or form proves that one of the “Top four” quarterbacks we’re going to play that well. Your photos don’t prove anything at all! Sorry, nice try but it’s a miss. However I do respect your opinion. And I will say this. If the bills trade up and get one of those quarterbacks and he ends up being great I will be very pleased and I will admit that I was wrong for rendering this opinion. Until then, that’s how I feel. Too risky to blow all of that draft capital  on one of these guys. 

 

 And just to add to my point, remember that we already have a quarterback on the roster who may be that guy. And the bills may believe this. I realize and except that this is all opinion however there is one thing that I will guarantee you: 

 

The bills did not bring on AJ to be a “bridge” quarterback. That is absolutely nonsense! He does not fit that description. In my opinion compared to the quarterbacks in the draft he is our best shot. It’s limited but it leastThe bills did not bring on AJ to be a “bridge” quarterback. That is absolutely nonsense! He does not fit that description. In my opinion compared to the quarterbacks in the draft he is our best shot. It’s limited but at least he has some NFL Pedegree. A true “bridge“ quarterback would be someone like  McNown  Who knew he was just here for year to groom our new quarterback. That’s not why the bills brought in AJ. That’s not why AJ came here. Watch out for him. 

[2003Contenders]

6 hours ago, RPbillsfan said:

In watching lots of film and both of their games last year I prefer Jackson over Rudolph.

 

Mason Rudolph - Big, good but not great arm, has excellent QB instincts, not much of a running threat but Delivery is relatively compact, excellent accuracy.  Seems as though he has above average leadership skills.  Concern that he played primarily in a simplified spread in a weak defensive conference and two NFL caliber receivers gave him a lot of easy uncontested completions.  Will be serviceable in the NFL, but I don't think can rise above an average roster and make it a playoff team.  I see a lot of Kirk Cousins in him as his ceiling.  Worth taking at pick 22

 

Lamar Jackson - Good height at 6'3", needs to add weight and strength in a pro environment.  Excellent arm, decent touch, not sure about him making all the NFL throws as he did not run an offense that used the deep outs at Louisville.  Mobility is huge plus.  Well schooled in playing under center, film shows he also has the unique movement inside the pocket, can shift his feet, stay in good throwing position and readjust to a new target and release.  Ceiling is a Randall Cunningham with more in-pocket discipline.  Needs one year in NFL weight room to add weight and strength.  Worth taking at pick 12.

 

Reasonable thoughts, I think. I certainly prefer the top 4 guys and hope the Bills are able to land one of them, but assuming that a trade up is not feasible...

 

The thing I like about Rudolph is that he throws the ball with anticipation really well. He has an average NFL arm but appears to have good instincts and is a natural QB (as opposed to someone like EJ who had all the physical talent you could ever want but never seemed comfortable playing QB). The hyperbole in the thread comparing Rudolph to Tom Brady is silly, but in a way I do get the comparison from a physical stand-point. Coming into the league Brady had mediocre arm strength and was a poor athlete. However, his accuracy, competitive fire, and strive for perfection is what has made him what he is. A guy like Rudolph can succeed in the NFL if he truly eats, breathes and sleeps football. Rudolph figures to be what the Bills were expecting (hoping) Peterman's upside could be. As you mentioned, Cousins likely represents that upside.

 

I keep going back and forth about Jackson. I like that he is a special athlete and played in Petrino's NFL offense at Louisville. He is a better passer than some observers give him credit for being. I am not overly worried that he likes to run with the ball, given his natural speed an elusiveness. However, I am worried that he has a lanky frame. I suppose proper conditioning could enable him to physically get bigger -- especially his legs. Still, there is a good chance that he could suffer the same fate as RG3, given the similar physique and reckless running style. 

[1billsfan]

With Rudolph, I honestly don't see the reasons he's any better of an NFL QB than either McCarron or Peterman.

 

With Jackson, you have a QB with (IMO) the floor of Tyrod Taylor, and the ceiling of Vick/Watson/Cunningham. Jackson's the clear choice for the Bills between those two QBs.

 

 

[H2o]

7 hours ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

Interested in hearing your arguments as to why you feel that Beane should take either Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph at 12, in the event that the Browns and Giants are unwilling to trade out of their spots.

I got nothing  

[Wayne Arnold]

34 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

Tough competition like: Duke, Wake Forest, Boston College, Syracuse, Kent State, Murray State?

 

The ACC is year-in and year-out one of the most NFL-talented conferences in the nation. So, yes.

[GreggTX]

8 hours ago, Doc said:

They shouldn't.  Either trade up for who you want or wait until another draft to draft a QB.

Take a flyer on Mike White in the 3rd and if we tank, we get our guy in 2019.

[Boatdrinks]

1 minute ago, GreggTX said:

Take a flyer on Mike White in the 3rd and if we tank, we get our guy in 2019.

I believe the topic was to convince the OP why Jackson / Rudolph should be the Bills choice at 12 if no trade up occurs. 

[Domdab99]

While 12 would be high for Jackson, if they really like him, I'd be fine with it.

 

Rudolph will not be a starter in the NFL. I've been watching film on him, and he has nothing. His ball tend to float, his arm strength is negligible, and he has zero pocket presence - never knows where he is in relation to the rushers. I don't know if he won't run or if he can't run - either way, he's not going to leave the pocket very often.