How much it will actually cost to get to #2

[HappyDays]

8 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

I think this "New Chart" has a lot of holes in it.

This chart says that Denver (#5) can move up to #1 pick for only adding their 2nd round # 40 pick?

 

Yeah this makes me question the whole thing. I think when QBs are involved the price goes up. The Giants also could factor in that we're trying to jump the Jets to get a QB ahead of them. I still think an RGIII-like haul would be needed to make it happen but I don't know for sure.

[SouthNYfan]

21 minutes ago, Max Fischer said:

 

Nope. I just don't see a QB worth that haul (except perhaps Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman and John Elway) 

 

???

 

Of all the QBs in history, you picked him to throw on that trip?

[Dr. Who]

10 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

That’s not how it works though. Teams use this as a guide and also use the market. The Giants will want roughly the 34% premium that the Jets got. The Bills can get it done fairly easily. They Giants will bite or they won’t but there aren’t many other teams that can put together that package. 

I think this is a credible argument.  The hypothetical you put together ought to be enough if the Giants are interested in moving #2.

[1billsfan]

47 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I've seen people throw around predictions for how much we have to give up to get to #2. I think everyone is lowballing the actual amount, so I calculated what we should expect based on what the Jets gave up to go from 6 to 3.

 

I'm using this chart:

 

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=Buf

 

And I give 2019 picks the value of the 16th pick 1 round earlier in 2018 (i.e. a 2019 1st is equal to the 16th pick in this year's 2nd round).

 

So the Jets usually would have needed 2200 points to get to pick 3. Using this chart what they actually gave up was 2730 points. That's a 24% increase in value.

 

Let's assume the Giants want the same premium, because why wouldn't they? They normally would ask for 2600 points. A 24% increase puts that at 3220 so that's what we need to get to #2.

 

Here's what gets us to 3220: both 1sts this year, both 2nds this year, pick 96 in the 3rd, and next year's 1st.

 

If that's what they asked for, would you take it?

 

You only do that if your team is built already. The Bills are just starting the rebuild.

 

Go on fan speak and do a 3 round draft with all their picks. Then do one with only picking Josh Rosen and the #96 pick.

 

Then ask yourself if you're ok with that trade, while also knowing you don't have the 2019 first round pick.

 

 

Edited March 20, 2018 by 1billsfan

[Domdab99]

I love that you guys all seem to just expect the Giants to accept an offer to trade down. For all we know, with Eli getting old and Web as their backup, the Giants are going to be happy to sit at #2 and draft a QB. Hell, they may just sit at 2 so they can pick Barkley. 

[elltrain22]

37 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

12 / 22 / 53 / 56 / 65 / 2019 2nd / 2020 2nd

 

for

 

2 / 101 / 2019 4th / 2020 4th

 

That's my best offer.  That's an unprecedented haul.  If the Giants turn that down, you gave it your best shot.

 

I'd do it. Very well thought out!! 

 

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, Domdab99 said:

I love that you guys all seem to just expect the Giants to accept an offer to trade down. For all we know, with Eli getting old and Web as their backup, the Giants are going to be happy to sit at #2 and draft a QB. Hell, they may just sit at 2 so they can pick Barkley. 

Certainly possible and not something that the Bills can control. If they don’t want to trade they won’t trade. There is an offer though that they will take (10 firsts?). The point is somewhere along the way they will agree. It is just a matter of whether or not the Bills think that price is one that they aren’t willing to pay. 

[ColoradoBills]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yeah this makes me question the whole thing. I think when QBs are involved the price goes up. The Giants also could factor in that we're trying to jump the Jets to get a QB ahead of them. I still think an RGIII-like haul would be needed to make it happen but I don't know for sure.

 

Look at last year with the Trubisky trade.

CHI (Pick #3=89.55) trade with SF (Pick #2=93.83) results in a difference of 4.28.

4.28 is Pick #117 a 4th round pick.

 

CHI gave up (Pick#67 3rd round=12.99) + (Pick#111 4th round=4.92) + (2018 3rd Round ((I will use mid 3rd round-1 round))=4.81).

That is a total of 22.72 but the chart says it's only 4.28.

This new chart says that CHI overpaid by 500%?

 

I will say I sure hope NYG are using this new chart!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[nero1]

I do not believe that you can project a franchise QB out of college. Every QB has his limitations coming out and the most critical is the condition of the team he goes to. Is the team ready. If not the qb will be a bust. Let's keep our picks and build a powerhouse. If we give away the top 5 picks this year I don't care who the QB is, he will not succeed. Just my HO.

[Domdab99]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Certainly possible and not something that the Bills can control. If they don’t want to trade they won’t trade. There is an offer though that they will take (10 firsts?). The point is somewhere along the way they will agree. It is just a matter of whether or not the Bills think that price is one that they aren’t willing to pay. 

 

Of course. I do not think one of the top 4 QBs is worth what it will take the Bills to move up; not when you've got Jackson potentially sitting there at 12. Or, maybe they move up a few spots to get ahead of Miami. If not, I'd love to for the Bills to go after a top LB and a WR in the first round and maybe pick up a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round. 

 

The more I think about, the more I'd rather the Bills stay put - UNLESS - they really fall in love with one of the top guys and trade up to 1 or 2 for him. Any other spot doesn't make sense, for what it'll cost. Go all-in or stay put. Don't do something Billsy and trade up to 7 just to pick the 4th best QB. 

 

Now, if they stay put until draft day and someone they covet starts dropping...THEN I can see a move up, too. 

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, Domdab99 said:

 

Of course. I do not think one of the top 4 QBs is worth what it will take the Bills to move up; not when you've got Jackson potentially sitting there at 12. Or, maybe they move up a few spots to get ahead of Miami. If not, I'd love to for the Bills to go after a top LB and a WR in the first round and maybe pick up a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round. 

 

The more I think about, the more I'd rather the Bills stay put - UNLESS - they really fall in love with one of the top guys and trade up to 1 or 2 for him. Any other spot doesn't make sense, for what it'll cost. Go all-in or stay put. Don't do something Billsy and trade up to 7 just to pick the 4th best QB. 

 

Now, if they stay put until draft day and someone they covet starts dropping...THEN I can see a move up, too. 

I think that all of those possibilities are on the table. It will depend on the grades that the Bills have on these guys. How close do they have them? If they have 4 guys close and one is there at 7 they will probably jump. If they have Jackson close to them or only like 1 guy that will change things too. 

[BADOLBILZ]

47 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Isn’t that the old Jimmy Johnson chart? That’s pretty antiquated. The Rich Hill Chart is more indicative of what is going on now:

 

 

 

Sniglets!

[HappyDays]

7 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Look at last year with the Trubisky trade.

CHI (Pick #3=89.55) trade with SF (Pick #2=93.83) results in a difference of 4.28.

4.28 is Pick #117 a 4th round pick.

 

CHI gave up (Pick#67 3rd round=12.99) + (Pick#111 4th round=4.92) + (2018 3rd Round ((I will use mid 3rd round-1 round))=4.81).

That is a total of 22.72 but the chart says it's only 4.28.

This new chart says that CHI overpaid by 500%?

 

I will say I sure hope NYG are using this new chart!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Thanks for this. And by the draft chart I used that trade makes more sense. SF gave up 389 points when the chart says they should give up 400. So maybe when QBs are involved the old draft chart still works.

Edited March 20, 2018 by HappyDays

[BuffaloHokie13]

To all those asking about the values in the chart Kirby shared, there is a premium beyond the standard values for certain tiers. Rich Hill explains this in some of his other work. Basically if you want to get into the top 3 you can expect to give ~130% of the value of that pick. If you want top 5 it's ~112%, if you want top 10 it's ~105%. After the top 10-12 it should be roughly even trades. The premiums vary, though, depending on a given classes strengths. It isn't surprising that this year's premium is high since the QBs are one of the strengths of the class.

 

So, for example, if we wanted to get to #2 in an average year we would need to achieve a value of 121.98 (93.83 x 1.3). That could be achieved with #12 (60.6), #22 (44.08), #56 (17.1), and our 6th to push us over the top.

 

Now the Jets this year traded #6(77.84), #37(28.13), #49(20.54), and a Future 2nd (9.76) for a total of 136.27. That's 152% value on the #3 overall pick. That's whats driving our supposed offer for the Giants' #2 pick.

#12(60.6), #22(44.08), #53(18.5), #65(13.57), and a Future 2nd (9.76) totals out to 146.51. That's 156% value on the #2 overall pick.

[Augie]

What would you give for a peak at the Bills draft board? Where is Rex when you need him? Let him give your wife/GF a foot rub and you might get a glimpse....

[BuffaloHokie13]

7 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

Look at last year with the Trubisky trade.

CHI (Pick #3=89.55) trade with SF (Pick #2=93.83) results in a difference of 4.28.

4.28 is Pick #117 a 4th round pick.

 

CHI gave up (Pick#67 3rd round=12.99) + (Pick#111 4th round=4.92) + (2018 3rd Round ((I will use mid 3rd round-1 round))=4.81).

That is a total of 22.72 but the chart says it's only 4.28.

This new chart says that CHI overpaid by 500%?

 

I will say I sure hope NYG are using this new chart!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The Bears gave up #3 (89.55), #67(12.99), #111(4.92), and a future 3rd (4.81) for a total of 112.27

The 49ers gave up #2 (93.83)

 

That's ~120% value, which is well within reason for the team moving up in a trade in the top 3.

[Saxum]

36 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

That’s not how it works though. Teams use this as a guide and also use the market. The Giants will want roughly the 34% premium that the Jets got. The Bills can get it done fairly easily. They Giants will bite or they won’t but there aren’t many other teams that can put together that package. 

 

That IS how it works.  Maybe the Giants will not get someone to trade but if they insist on Bush size barrel of picks your only choice is to give them up or not be able to trade with them. 

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, Limeaid said:

 

That IS how it works.  Maybe the Giants will not get someone to trade but if they insist on Bush size barrel of picks your only choice is to give them up or not be able to trade with them. 

Yes, but the conversation started with the charts. They use the same general parameters. These charts were created to judge value. That is the same reason that coaches have 2 point conversion charts. You can technically go whenever you want but there are a general set of rules that team’s subscribe to. It’s the same way with trades. If the Giants say “we won’t trade unless it is 10 first round picks” they will be picking 2. If they have an interest in dealing that pick the chart will be used by both sides. They will get a premium (as Hokie explained) but there will be a point that they will have no demand. 

[Senth]

I hope the Browns and Giants keep their picks.

 

Reading the scenarios being given by most here are just too much.

 

12 or 22 will garner the QB required ....... too many worriers here.

 

JUST RELAX!!

 

 

[jkirchofer]

28 minutes ago, 1billsfan said:

 

You only do that if your team is built already. The Bills are just starting the rebuild.

 

Go on fan speak and do a 3 round draft with all their picks. Then do one with only picking Josh Rosen and the #96 pick.

 

Then ask yourself if you're ok with that trade, while also knowing you don't have the 2019 first round pick.

 

 

What rebuild? This team made the playoffs despite the roster overhaul and the mediocre QB play. Now add the decent free agent signings and a franchise QB from the draft and you can take this team deep. Playing it safe was status quo until this current regime. Playoff windows on average are only 3-4 years, so take the risk, get the kid that is going to lead you for the next decade plus, and build through free agency next year.