K-9 Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 1 hour ago, thebandit27 said: That entire future scenario is predicated on the idea that drafting a QB this year precludes you from doing so again next year--and it doesn't. Not getting it right in a trade-up is no more likely to set the team back than the scenario where you stay at 12 and 22, draft non-QBs, play out the 2018 season with below-average QB play winning 7-9 games, and end up picking 18-20 again next season. Then what? You have a chance to go get your guy right now; we don't know when we'll have the chance again. People need to better understand that even if we pay the price quoted in this thread, we STILL have picks in every round which makes it look like a traditional draft, anyway. And in a purportedly deep draft, this is the BEST opportunity to spend the capital on a QB while STILL being able to add pieces in the draft. No brainer from where I sit. Imo, the ONLY thing hindering a move up to 2 would be if McBean have ONE prospect CLEARLY ranked above all others and the rest are so closely rated and he knows a good prospect would fall. It's a question of their commitment to the prospect they have targeted. I can't see this deal being a hindrance to trying to go up and get him.
TheFunPolice Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Nihilarian said: That list was all about the starting QB's for last year (2017) and not about past QB's. I haven't researched it but I'm pretty sure you don't NEED a top-five pick at QB to win the super bowl. Okay, I'll research it! 26 of 47 super bowl winning QB's were taken in the first round. Six first-round overall picks have won one or more SB's, Bradshaw 4, Aikman 3, Plunkett 2, Elway 2, Manning 2, Manning 2. The thing is, that none of this year's QB's are in the same grade as any of those six overall picks. Darnold grades as a 7.0. Rosen grades as a 6.1. Both Mayfield and Allen a 6.0. Jackson a 5.9. Elway like Andrew Luck was considered a once in a decade blue-chip prospect with both a solid 10. NFL.com Grading Scale GRADE TITLE 9.00-10 Once-in-lifetime player 8.00-9.00 Perennial All-Pro 7.50-7.99 Future All-Pro 7.00-7.49 Pro Bowl to All-Pro ability 6.50-6.99 Good NFL starter with Pro Bowl potential 6.00-6.49 Chance to become good NFL starter 5.70-5.99 Could become early NFL starter 5.30-5.69 Backup or eventual starter 5.15-5.29 Developmental prospect or special teams potential 5.01-5.14 Back end of the roster 5.00 50/50 chance of making the roster I get what you're saying but I also wonder where Brady would have graded out... Or Brees... Or Rogers, given his slide on draft day. It's all an inexact science, and putting these types of numbers on them is totally subjective. 1
Chuck Wagon Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, #34fan said: The top QB's in this draft have significant deficiencies. Some may fall. Based on that, we should Keep both first rounders, AND both seconds. Those picks may prove in the long run to be better than the kid you trade up for. In the last 5 years, 2 third round QB's from arguably the most highly-touted first round QB bonanza ever, have won superbowls. This team has CLEARLY been set back by trades for players that were supposed to be the answer. (EJ, Sammy,) Another bust sets us back even longer. Get it now? We GOT extra players in the trade for EJ. Look, no one is saying we are trading up for a sure thing. But to stick your head in the sand and pretend the odds aren't significantly higher to find a true franchise QB at the top of the draft, or to cite clear outliers about the ability to find QBs later, or to even pretend we are trading away sure impact players for a sure bust at QB is just utterly ridiculous.
Dr. Who Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, K-9 said: People need to better understand that even if we pay the price quoted in this thread, we STILL have picks in every round which makes it look like a traditional draft, anyway. And in a purportedly deep draft, this is the BEST opportunity to spend the capital on a QB while STILL being able to add pieces in the draft. No brainer from where I sit. Imo, the ONLY thing hindering a move up to 2 would be if McBean have ONE prospect CLEARLY ranked above all others and the rest are so closely rated and he knows a good prospect would fall. It's a question of their commitment to the prospect they have targeted. I can't see this deal being a hindrance to trying to go up and get him. I agree with your general point. I don't think this is a particularly deep draft from my reading, but that actually means you should concentrate your resources early in the draft. Regardless, if we don't take a shot at franchise qb this draft, I don't think we ever will.
#34fan Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Yep, literally what you said: A decade is ten years... The "better part" of anything (more than half) is always less than the whole. -You may have been a mathlete in another life. But not this one.
Nihilarian Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, TheFunPolice said: I get what you're saying but I also wonder where Brady would have graded out... Or Brees... Or Rogers, given his slide on draft day. It's all an inexact science, and putting these types of numbers on them is totally subjective. It's not when you have an Elway or a Luck that is actually worth giving up 3 first rounders for, or 5, 6 very early picks for. but to give up that many early picks for players who simply don't grade that high. It's foolish! If any of this years QB's graded out higher I'd be "all in"! They don't! They... all ...have... warts!
Chuck Wagon Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 9 minutes ago, Nihilarian said: It's not when you have an Elway or a Luck that is actually worth giving up 3 first rounders for, or 5, 6 very early picks for. but to give up that many early picks for players who simply don't grade that high. It's foolish! If any of this years QB's graded out higher I'd be "all in"! They don't! They... all ...have... warts! THOSE TYPES OF QB PROSPECTS ARE NEVER EVER TRADED!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1
K-9 Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Dr. Who said: I agree with your general point. I don't think this is a particularly deep draft from my reading, but that actually means you should concentrate your resources early in the draft. Regardless, if we don't take a shot at franchise qb this draft, I don't think we ever will. Any time you have 70 rated potential starters at the top, it's a deep draft, at least on paper, which is all any of these prospects are. That said, there will be players in that 70 who bust, players on nobody's radar will become All Pros, and some will be exactly what's projected.
Wayne Cubed Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, #34fan said: A decade is ten years... The "better part" of anything (more than half) is always less than the whole. -You may have been a mathlete in another life. But not this one. Oh wow, let me rephrase. You said giving up draft assists could set back this team 9.99 years... How’d I do?
Dr. Who Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Nihilarian said: It's not when you have an Elway or a Luck that is actually worth giving up 3 first rounders for, or 5, 6 very early picks for. but to give up that many early picks for players who simply don't grade that high. It's foolish! If any of this years QB's graded out higher I'd be "all in"! They don't! They... all ...have... warts! If you're waiting for Elway or Luck to justify trading significant resources for a chance at franchise qb, you will wait a long time. Not only are they rare, whoever is bad enough to merit the first pick is surely not going to trade away the pick unless forced as the Colts were with regards to Elway. The top fellas in this draft have enough good qualities to be considered potential franchise guys and that's enough. Edited March 20, 2018 by Dr. Who
Nihilarian Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Chuck Wagon said: THOSE TYPES OF QB PROSPECTS ARE NEVER EVER TRADED!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THIS YEARS QBs DON"T EVEN COME CLOSE!!!!!!!!!!! a grade of 7.0 is a far cry from a 10.0. and Darnold is barely a 7.0
TheFunPolice Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Nihilarian said: It's not when you have an Elway or a Luck that is actually worth giving up 3 first rounders for, or 5, 6 very early picks for. but to give up that many early picks for players who simply don't grade that high. It's foolish! If any of this years QB's graded out higher I'd be "all in"! They don't! They... all ...have... warts! If there WAS another Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning, the team sitting at #1 is not trading for ANY price. Would you? Imagine: you're the Bills of 2018, and somehow you are sitting there with the #1 overall pick. A guy that pretty much everyone is saying is the next Elway/Manning type prospect is sitting right there, ready to draft. Are you trading that once in a lifetime type QB for 3 1st rounders? NO WAY! Look at the Bills recent top 5 picks... Dareus, Big Mike, Sammy... Would you rather have all 3 of them at the same time or Peyton Manning in his rookie season, with 18 years of HOF play to look forward to? I wouldn't trade a pick like that for ANYTHING. You could offer me you entire draft for 2 seasons and I'd rather get my QB and go win for a generation. But a guy also doesn't have to be a generational, HOF type talent to be a great QB for your team. Edited March 20, 2018 by TheFunPolice
Chuck Wagon Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, K-9 said: Any time you have 70 rated potential starters at the top, it's a deep draft, at least on paper, which is all any of these prospects are. That said, there will be players in that 70 who bust, players on nobody's radar will become All Pros, and some will be exactly what's projected. Exactly. Just looking at averages, of those 5 picks, you are likely looking at 1 pro bowler, 1 guy who is borderline pro bowler / sure starter, 1 starter, 2 busts. That's simply the law of averages of the normal players taken between 12 - 65. If you trust Beane's ability to beat the average, why would you not trust his ability to pick the right QB?
#34fan Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said: Oh wow, let me rephrase. You said giving up draft assists could set back this team 9.99 years... How’d I do? OK... So by your own silly estimation, that's what I meant.
RochesterRob Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: If you think that Smith, Palmer, Vick or Newton is a clear bust we just aren’t going to agree. Did they deliver a title to the team that drafted them? Again, I would point out that under the current CBA there is no way to keep a player 10-15 years if he is of the mindset he wants to leave. Unfortunately, the Bills have seen a fair amount of that in their existence. Edited March 20, 2018 by RochesterRob
Wayne Cubed Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, #34fan said: OK... So by your own silly estimation, that's what I meant. Don't say “better part” of a decade when you mean 5 years then and you won’t end up looking silly. Even if you did mean 5 years the Watkins trade of draft assests set the Bills so far back, they ended a 17 year playoff drought 3 years later. ??<——— I can do this game too
TheFunPolice Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, RochesterRob said: Did they deliver a title to the team that drafted them? Again, I would point out that under the current CBA there is no way to keep a player 10-15 years if he is off the mindset he wants to leave. Unfortunately, the Bills have seen a fair amount of that in their existence. Football is too much of a team sport to guarantee anything (look at how the Packers have almost totally wasted Rogers career) but all of those guys had their teams in the discussion multiple times. All you can ask for is a shot to make a few runs and hope to have a healthy team when crunch time comes. 1
Chuck Wagon Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 15 minutes ago, Nihilarian said: THIS YEARS QBs DON"T EVEN COME CLOSE!!!!!!!!!!! a grade of 7.0 is a far cry from a 10.0. and Darnold is barely a 7.0 So never draft a QB high unless he's a once in a lifetime prospect, otherwise just take QBs in round 6 because of Tom Brady. Thanks for your valuable contributions to the community here.
HappyDays Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: If you think that Smith, Palmer, Vick or Newton is a clear bust we just aren’t going to agree. If you sell the farm for a QB and they don't win a Super Bowl or clearly establish themselves as a top 10 QB for several years I would consider that move a bust. If we already had the #1 or #2 pick I would be all for picking a QB. I'm cool with picking one at 12, or trading up a few spots. I am not willing to pay the same premium the Jets paid to get to #1 or #2 when recent history shows that is a losing proposition.
cudi Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 I'd be patient. I'd just keep the picks and take whats there at 12. There's the opportunity to get a bunch of promising players in these high rounds rather than a promising QB that's probably not going to work out for us anyways. But hey if the deal gets done and whoever we get works out that's great too.
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