Wsam4031 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 hours ago, Yav said: What happens if you fade away all those picks and AJ beats out the rookie and is the franchise QB with the rookie being another pretender? Everyone will complain and want blood. on the flip side what happens if that rookie becomes the next manning or Brady,, we win superbowls and rule the afc for years to come? Nobody blinks at the 5 picks we gave up for him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BananaB Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 If they do it the guy they pick better pan out... I think it’s too high for any of the QBs in this draft though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 11 minutes ago, HappyDays said: I don't know. Does anyone? What if instead of using a bunch of picks for one guy, we drafted 3 QBs with 3 of those picks? Would that have a higher success rate than going all in on one guy for even more picks? Again, I don't know. But the idea that there is exactly one sound strategy for getting your franchise QB is wrong. I won't hate it if we make a big trade up but I definitely won't cry that the Bills aren't trying if they sit and let the draft come to them. I don’t have the data in front of me but it exists. I am (very) confident that the success ratio of a top 3 QB is greater than drafting 3 guys. Top 3 guys are roughly 50%. You’d have to take the likelihood at every other place and add them together (or a pick in the 20’s may be 20%, a pick in the 50’s 5% and a pick at 120 3%). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyrod's friend Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, GG said: How did Rams & Eagles fare in their recent moves to secure QBs at the top of the draft? Maybe we want to give it a year or two to figure out?Robert Griffin Passing Statistics for Career Games 2014 to 2016 Games Passing Passing Year Tm G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD Average 14 14 266 424 3202 18 8 34 246 Per 16 Games 16 16 304 485 3659 21 10 39 281 2012-2013 WAS 28 28 12-16-0 532 849 62.7 6403 36 4.2 17 2 88 7.5 7.5 12.0 228.7 91.5 68 491 6.45 6.40 7.4 Robert Griffin Passing Statistics for Career Games 2014 to 2016 Games Passing Passing Year Tm G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD Average 7 6 117 180 1290 3 4 28 182 Per 16 Games 16 14 267 413 2949 7 10 63 417 2014-2016 WAS,CLE 14 12 3-9-0 234 361 64.8 2580 6 1.7 9 2.5 69 7.1 6.4 11.0 184.3 81.0 55 365 5.32 4.64 13.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderingsquid Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 It's simple. Either you are pro franchise QB (trade up) or anti franchise QB (stay at 12). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#34fan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 (edited) 26 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Pretty sure you just proved Wayne's point. The team gave up a relative bounty to move up and draft Watkins--a move that ended up not working out as they planned--and yet they ended the 17-year playoff drought a mere 3 seasons later. Giving up a bounty didn't set the team back a decade then; why would it now? Pretty sure I did just the opposite! Watkins wasn't a part of that playoff JOKE... -He was gone when the bills failed to control their own destiny, and rode Andy Dalton's arm to an embarrassing post- season loss... I look at it this way... Marcus Mariota was probably the best QB prospect I'd seen since Russell Willson... If we KEEP the pick we give CLE, and perhaps package it with something else in '15, there's a chance we end up with Mariota instead of Ron Darby, -Who's also no longer here... The REAL problem is this team isn't any better at scouting than the punters on this board. Edited March 20, 2018 by #34fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nihilarian Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Yes, waiting and taking whatever QB is left later in the draft has worked out extremely well for the team these last 30 drafts. #1 Tom Brady was a 6th round pick.- WON 6 SBs #2 Aaron Rodgers was a late 1st, 22nd overall. WON SB #3 Ben Rothlisberger was a mid-round pick, 11th overall. WON 2 SBs #4 Drew Brees was a second-round pick, 32nd overall. WON SB #5 Carson Wentz, first round, 2nd overall pick in 2016. #6 Russell Wilson was a 3rd pick, 75th overall. WON 2 SB #7 Cam Newton, 1st overall. went to an SB #8 Matthew Stafford, 1st overall. playoffs #9 Andrew Luck, 1st overall. playoffs #10 Phillip Rivers, 1st round 4th overall. Playoffs #11Jimmy Garappolo, 2nd round, 62nd overall. #12 Kirk Cousins, 4th round, 102nd overall. #13 Jamis Winston, 1st overall. #14 Dak Prescott, 4th round, 135th overall. Playoffs. #15 Marcus Mariota, 1st round, 2nd pick overall. Playoffs #16 Derek Carr, 2nd round, #36 overall.Playoffs. #17 Alex Smith, 1st round, 1st overall. playoffs #18 Deshaun Watson, 1st round, 12th overall. #19 Jared Goff, 1st round, 1st overall. #20 Andy Dalton, 2nd round, 35th overall. playoffs. #21 Tyrod Taylor, 6th round,180th overall. playoffs. #22 Ryan Tannehill, 1st round, 8th overall. #23 Joe Flacco, 1st round, 18th overall. WON SB #24 Eli Manning, 1st round, 1st overall. WON 2 SB #25 Mitch Turbisky, 1st round, 2nd overall. #26 Sam Bradford, 1st round, 1st overall. #27 Case Keenum -UNDRAFTED #28 Jay Cutler, 1st round, 11th overall. #29 Carson Palmer, 1st round, 1st overall. Playoffs #30 Deshone Kizer, 2nd round, 52nd overall. #31 Trevor Siemian, 7th round, 250th overall. #32 Blake Bortles, 1st round, 3rd overall. Playoffs #33 Nick Foles, 3rd round, 88th overall. WON SB Think I got this pretty close. Looking over all those QBs who have been picked in the top 5 only Eli Manning has won 2 super bowls. Almost half that have been picked very early and made the playoffs. Six QB's have won super bowls have been picked later than the top 5, three are first round picks. I think the point here is not the fact that Buffalo hasn't spent the picks to find that franchise QB because they did try with first-round pick JP Losman, or third-round pick Trent Edwards. I think it's more of a testimony of their scouting/talent evaluation incompetence since the Jim Kelly days. You don't NEED to draft a QB with the first or second overall pick. You just NEED to know what the hell you are doing when you evaluate them. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, #34fan said: Pretty sure I did just the opposite! Watkins wasn't a part of that playoff JOKE... -He was gone when the bills failed to control their own destiny, and rode Andy Dalton's arm to an embarrassing post- season loss... I look at it this way... Marcus Mariota was probably the best QB prospect I'd seen since Russell Willson... If we KEEP the pick we give CLE, and perhaps package it with something else in '15, there's a chance we end up with Mariota instead of Ron Darby, -Who's also no longer here... The REAL problem is this team isn't any better at scouting than the punters on this board. Nope. You completely missed Wayne's point and are now making outrageous claims. At what point was this team in position to land Mariota instead of Darby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RochesterRob Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, BillsFan2313 said: So basically you want 2014 and 2015 all over again? Cool. Give me a QB, and then I will load up after. 2015 was Rex part 1 so that had more of a bearing than our player talent pool. We hopefully have our coach so let's not Seneca-Niagara him into the unemployment line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Nihilarian said: You don't NEED to draft a QB with the first or second overall pick. You just NEED to know what the hell you are doing when you evaluate them. I'll reference my earlier post so as not to be obnoxious by repeating myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yav Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, Wsam4031 said: on the flip side what happens if that rookie becomes the next manning or Brady,, we win superbowls and rule the afc for years to come? Nobody blinks at the 5 picks we gave up for him Oh I agree, but I think it's more likely that neither QB works out. IMO the percentage is against you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyrod's friend Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 16 minutes ago, GG said: How did Rams & Eagles fare in their recent moves to secure QBs at the top of the draft? Follow up point: One year after the draft, Goff might have been considered a mistake. But he was fortunate and his team surrounded him with great talent at LT, 2 WR and one of the best offensive minds around right now. Are you thinking our team is going to follow that path after we move up to #1 or #2 to get Rosen/Darnold? Hmmm. I wonder how. Two years after the draft, Carson Wentz injured his leg. He is recuperating, but a good part of his value lies in his ability to run/be mobile and attack the defense in multiple ways. He's aggressive and I think he's going to have a lengthy injury record. You might not want to take any victory lap on him either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 IncarceratedBob huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyC81 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 hours ago, JXCOL3 said: The best part about this if it does happen is that we could potentially box out the jets from the QB they wanted. Which would make this trade that much better And then the Jets can make Cleveland a big offer to move to #1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 24 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Pretty sure you just proved Wayne's point. The team gave up a relative bounty to move up and draft Watkins--a move that ended up not working out as they planned--and yet they ended the 17-year playoff drought a mere 3 seasons later. Giving up a bounty didn't set the team back a decade then; why would it now? It wasn't just the bounty for Watkins...........they made the playoffs with just Shaq(on IR) and White to show for the previous 17 years worth of their first rounders since Donahoe passed on Drew Brees in favor of Nate Clements. But man........getting Clements, Schobel, Travis Henry and Jonas Jennings in the first 4 picks was a GREAT haul. An on paper-hole-filling-draft-niks dream in Dwight Adams final year in charge of college scouting for the Bills. That would be something like a Denzel Ward, Marcus Davenport, Sony Michel and Tyrell Crosby haul....with no busts...... in rounds 1-3 this year. But....anyway........that group stopped impacting the Bills about a decade ago..........Drew Brees keeps playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roundybout Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said: Follow up point: One year after the draft, Goff might have been considered a mistake. But he was fortunate and his team surrounded him with great talent at LT, 2 WR and one of the best offensive minds around right now. Are you thinking our team is going to follow that path after we move up to #1 or #2 to get Rosen/Darnold? Hmmm. I wonder how. Two years after the draft, Carson Wentz injured his leg. He is recuperating, but a good part of his value lies in his ability to run/be mobile and attack the defense in multiple ways. He's aggressive and I think he's going to have a lengthy injury record. You might not want to take any victory lap on him either. Buddy Nix approves of your message. Eventually you'll strike gold with Levi Brown. If you're willing to sit through decades of futility. It absolutely blows my mind that Bills fans had a front row seat to 4 general managers over 15 years completely blowing off the QB position with predictable results, and the remedy for the situation is more of the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 56 minutes ago, Jamie Mueller said: Still an opinion... history has taught us that Darnold (or any of them) could be good or bad... or just OK... no one really knows for sure. If you did, then making the trade would be easy. That's not the point though. To say anyone but Darnold makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 So Chris Trapasso just stated on WGR that he believes Josh Allen or Sam Darnold will be the #1 overall pick. These are the whispers and the talks he's been hearing from league personnel.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALF Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, LittleJoeCartwright said: And then the Jets can make Cleveland a big offer to move to #1 I would think John Dorsey wants his QB at #1 and #4 can trade down unless Barkley is still there. Browns and Giants have it made this draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts