Rumor: Trade up discussion with Giants

[#34fan]

29 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

No, no it can't.

 

It's one draft class--if you get it wrong, you go after another QB next offseason.

 

I swear, some folks think that if you wait long enough a franchise QB just drops into your lap.  It's been 20 years since Kelly retired; it would've happened by now if that approach worked.

 

2018 1st Rd (#12 overall)
2018 1st Rd (#22 overall)
2018 2nd Rd (#53 overall)
2018 3rd Rd (#65)
2019 2nd Rd

 

It absolutely can! -Forget about the fact that you have no idea what kind of talent you're giving up this draft, (and next)

 

You may move up to draft something worse than a bad QB... -A mediocre QB... The kind of QB that can't get it done, but shows just enough year after year to

 

keep bringing him back.  Before you know it, three years are down the drain... The regime that made that mistake is now gone, now another half-assed regime

 

is  desperate again, so they make another dumb trade for what they believe might be "The Guy", and the process starts all over again... Mortgaging the future

 

isn't a remedy... I don't  think it's a bad idea to bite the bullet so your team can make real strides.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 20, 2018 by #34fan

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, #34fan said:

 

2018 1st Rd (#12 overall)
2018 1st Rd (#22 overall)
2018 2nd Rd (#53 overall)
2018 3rd Rd (#65)
2019 2nd Rd

 

It absolutely can! -Forget about the fact that you have no idea what kind of talent you're giving up this draft, (and next)

 

You may move up to draft something worse than a bad QB... -A mediocre QB... The kind of QB that can't get it done, but shows just enough year after year to

 

keep bringing him back.  Before you know it, three years are down the drain... The regime that made that mistake is now gone, now another half-assed regime

 

is  desperate again, so they make another dumb trade for what they believe might be "The Guy", and the process starts all over again... Mortgaging the future

 

isn't a remedy... I don't  think it's a bad idea to bite the bullet so your team can make real strides.

 

 

 

 

 

That entire future scenario is predicated on the idea that drafting a QB this year precludes you from doing so again next year--and it doesn't.

 

Not getting it right in a trade-up is no more likely to set the team back than the scenario where you stay at 12 and 22, draft non-QBs, play out the 2018 season with below-average QB play winning 7-9 games, and end up picking 18-20 again next season.  Then what?

 

You have a chance to go get your guy right now; we don't know when we'll have the chance again.

[dave mcbride]

34 minutes ago, K-9 said:

It is NO difference in the expenditure of their draft capital. No matter how you slice it, the Bills used their first pick in the '98 draft on Rob Johnson, the #9 pick overall, etc. 

 

Too me, what's quibbling over split hairs is the '83 draft where folks like to point out how we took Hunter instead of Kelly at 12 vs. 14, respectively. I get it, but there just isn't that much difference. 

There is a significant difference depending on the prism you're looking through: have the Bills ever decided that they had enough confidence in their evaluation skills to draft a qb from college -- the players that are actually drafted! --  with either a) their first slotted pick  or b) via a tradeup?  That's the prism I look through. 

Your point about Kelly is a fair one. That said, it would have been sadly funny if the Lions had surprised the Bills and taken Kelly instead of James Jones at 13. The Bills were confident they wouldn't, but that logic seems pretty shaky in retrospect given that their qbs at the time were Gary Danielson and Eric Hipple. I'm guessing Lions fans rue that draft a lot.

[Radar]

I'll rain on the parade. No way are we going to move up to #2. Giants will not trade that pick. I can't see a scenario where the Browns trade either #1 or #4 to us but still could see movement between the #1-4 teams. If we take a quarterback in first round unless one of the top four prospects drops unexpectedly below #6 say probably we're left with someone like Jackson and the way it's looking he could be gone by the time we pick and can't see moving up to get him. 

[Jamie Mueller]

6 hours ago, TheTruthHurts said:

Not just my opinion. Most feel that way. 

 

Still an opinion... history has taught us that Darnold (or any of them) could be good or bad... or just OK... no one really knows for sure.  If you did, then making the trade would be easy.

[#34fan]

28 minutes ago, arcane said:

 while we sit on our thumbs spinning in circles making sure we have our Matt Milanos and Karlos Williams's. 

 

Passing on two first-rounders could get you exactly this... -In '18, this team is a GREAT position draftwise... I honestly don't see tons of difference between the

 

2nd tier QB's and the 1sts in this draft... KEEP THE DAMN PICKS...-Fill needs with young talent, instead of waiting for free agency every year.

Edited March 20, 2018 by #34fan

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

Let's say McCoy is the trade breaker for Giants would you do it without risking next year 1st round pick? Even with some picks like both of our firsts. A second as well. Or whatever

[Canadian Bills Fan]

Just now, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

Let's say McCoy is the trade breaker for Giants would you do it without risking next year 1st round pick? Even with some picks like both of our firsts. A second as well. Or whatever

 

 

No

[Chuck Wagon]

10 minutes ago, #34fan said:

 

2018 1st Rd (#12 overall)
2018 1st Rd (#22 overall)
2018 2nd Rd (#53 overall)
2018 3rd Rd (#65)
2019 2nd Rd

 

It absolutely can! -Forget about the fact that you have no idea what kind of talent you're giving up this draft, (and next)

 

You may move up to draft something worse than a bad QB... -A mediocre QB... The kind of QB that can't get it done, but shows just enough year after year to keep bringing

 

him back.  Before you know it, three years are down the drain... The regime that made that mistake is now gone, now another half-assed regime is  desperate again, so they make

 

another dumb trade for what they believe might be "The Guy", and the process starts all over again... Mortgaging the future isn't a remedy... I don't  think it's a bad idea to bite the

 

bullet so your team can make real strides.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's been 35 years since this franchise took the caliber of player the guys at the top of this draft represents.  I really don't understand why some people have determined whoever QB gets picked is a bust. 

 

Yes, Ryan Leaf was a bust, 20 years ago.  Jamarcus Russell was a bust 10 years ago.  Sam Bradford and RG3 got hurt, people get hurt playing football.  But Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Wentz, Goff, outside of injuries QBs who are evaluated at the top of the draft aren't a coin flip in terms of succeeding, its ~75% odds you've got a franchise level guy who is the best QB to play the position since Kelly.  There's a reason people are going back 20 years to find examples of what goes wrong, they are picking up outliers and trying to paint a picture it's a complete coin flip.

[Wayne Cubed]

7 minutes ago, #34fan said:

 

2018 1st Rd (#12 overall)
2018 1st Rd (#22 overall)
2018 2nd Rd (#53 overall)
2018 3rd Rd (#65)
2019 2nd Rd

 

It absolutely can! -Forget about the fact that you have no idea what kind of talent you're giving up this draft, (and next)

 

You may move up to draft something worse than a bad QB... -A mediocre QB... The kind of QB that can't get it done, but shows just enough year after year to

 

keep bringing him back.  Before you know it, three years are down the drain... The regime that made that mistake is now gone, now another half-assed regime

 

is  desperate again, so they make another dumb trade for what they believe might be "The Guy", and the process starts all over again... Mortgaging the future

 

isn't a remedy... I don't  think it's a bad idea to bite the bullet so your team can make real strides.

 

 

 

 

 

Man that Sammy Watkins trade really set the franchise back 10 years didn't it? Or did they just end the drought 3 years later? I can't remember.

 

I love your plan, just keep hoping a QB lands in their lap, brilliant. And "bite the bullet" got the Bills Dareus and Mike Williams, you need to bit the bullet and have it a year where there is a QB to take.

[Franco_92]

9 minutes ago, #34fan said:

 

2018 1st Rd (#12 overall)
2018 1st Rd (#22 overall)
2018 2nd Rd (#53 overall)
2018 3rd Rd (#65)
2019 2nd Rd

 

It absolutely can! -Forget about the fact that you have no idea what kind of talent you're giving up this draft, (and next)

 

You may move up to draft something worse than a bad QB... -A mediocre QB... The kind of QB that can't get it done, but shows just enough year after year to

 

keep bringing him back.  Before you know it, three years are down the drain... The regime that made that mistake is now gone, now another half-assed regime

 

is  desperate again, so they make another dumb trade for what they believe might be "The Guy", and the process starts all over again... Mortgaging the future

 

isn't a remedy... I don't  think it's a bad idea to bite the bullet so your team can make real strides.

 

 

giving up all of that stuff still lets us make a 1st, 2nd, 3rd,4th,5th, 6th round pick this year, plus everything but a second next year. How often can we realistically take a qb high and still be able to say that? 

It's time. 

[BADOLBILZ]

28 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Two full decades before my time, but wasn't Lucas a signee in the inaugural AFL "free agent" (for lack of a better term) chase?

 

I could be wrong...

 

 

Yes.

 

The 1960 group is not universally recognized as an official draft class.

 

 

[Misterbluesky]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

Let's say McCoy is the trade breaker for Giants would you do it without risking next year 1st round pick? Even with some picks like both of our firsts. A second as well. Or whatever

Throw in Hughes and Richie to..and White?

[Chuck Wagon]

12 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

Let's say McCoy is the trade breaker for Giants would you do it without risking next year 1st round pick? Even with some picks like both of our firsts. A second as well. Or whatever

 

 

I'm not going to let a 30 year old RB prevent me from getting a 21 year old QB.

[Buffalo Bills Detective]

2 minutes ago, #34fan said:

 

Passing on two first-rounders could get you exactly this... -In '18, this team is a GREAT position draftwise... I honestly don't see tons of difference between the

 

2nd tier QB's and the 1sts in this draft... KEEP THE DAMN PICKS...-Fill needs with young talent, instead of waiting for free agency every year.

So, rather than have a highly regarded QB prospect like Rosen or Darnold, you'd rather settle for Lamar "One Read and Run" Jackson, Mike White of Western Kentucky, Kyle Lauletta of Richmond, Luke "Another Mike Leach System QB" Falk or Mason "Another OK State System QB" Rudolph?

Pathetic.

[#34fan]

Just now, Wayne Cubed said:

 

Man that Sammy Watkins trade really set the franchise back 10 years didn't it? Or did they just end the drought 3 years later? I can't remember.

 

 

 Yah... Sammy ended the drought. ROTFL!

[Nineforty]

1 minute ago, Canadian Bills Fan said:

 

 

No

Ridiculous

 

3 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

Let's say McCoy is the trade breaker for Giants would you do it without risking next year 1st round pick? Even with some picks like both of our firsts. A second as well. Or whatever

Yes.

[gobills1212]

36 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

The Washington Redskins are calling to say Hi. Something about not having a good draft position for years, and only getting freaking lucky a 4th round pick ... um .. FELL INTO THEIR LAPS.

So... max we are talking no 1st rd guy next year. We'd still have one this year... and then have one again in 2020. The skins gave away 2 yrs out. Totally different senerio.  Apples to oranges

[Franco_92]

4 minutes ago, #34fan said:

 

Passing on two first-rounders could get you exactly this... -In '18, this team is a GREAT position draftwise... I honestly don't see tons of difference between the

 

2nd tier QB's and the 1sts in this draft... KEEP THE DAMN PICKS...-Fill needs with young talent, instead of waiting for free agency every year.

You might not see the difference but it's there. Allen, Jackson, Rudolph etc are trash and we have as good a chance as any other year of getting a franchise qb up top. Continuing to do what you say will go a long way towards guaranteeing mediocrity until we suck so bad we dont have to trade up, which didn't happen ONCE during our !@#$ing century long playoff drought. 

!@#$ that plan. !@#$ that thinking. Get your franchise qb.

[K-9]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

There is a significant difference depending on the prism you're looking through: have the Bills ever decided that they had enough confidence in their evaluation skills to draft a qb from college -- the players that are actually drafted! --  with either a) their first slotted pick  or b) via a tradeup?  That's the prism I look through. 

Your point about Kelly is a fair one. That said, it would have been sadly funny if the Lions had surprised the Bills and taken Kelly instead of James Jones at 13. The Bills were confident they wouldn't, but that logic seems pretty shaky in retrospect given that their qbs at the time were Gary Danielson and Eric Hipple. I'm guessing Lions fans rue that draft a lot.

I am looking at ONLY through the prism of draft capital invested which, as I've pointed out, represent several of their top selections in various drafts. 

 

I understand the point about evaluation of college prospects at the position, but I would posit that it was that precise evaluation that led them to go the veteran route vs. the prospect route at the time, especially in '98 when they had no chance at the top of the draft. 2003 was extremely bare as well. 

 

That said, I think '04 is an example of what you allude to here; Donahoe wanted Roethlisberger badly and should have pulled the trigger on the trade with the Texans to get him. If McBean are that convinced of somebody in this draft, they need to pull the trigger. Anything less than that and they are being hypocritical about their process.