BuffaloRush Posted March 20, 2018 Author Posted March 20, 2018 3 hours ago, GunnerBill said: Someone traded us an elite running back for him..... Sorry but that doesn’t make him a great 2nd round pick
GunnerBill Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 (edited) 4 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: Sorry but that doesn’t make him a great 2nd round pick I didn't say it did but your point was at no point after his first 6 games could we have got that value back for him. I think we did... two seasons into his career and after a bad injury to boot. Edited March 20, 2018 by GunnerBill
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 13 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said: Still not sure how you think Brad Butler was a hit? And Kiko Alonso was most definitely a hit. Of course he was. In ROY discussion and exchanged directly for the Bills best player still on the roster. You are right and it’s not even close 1
BuffaloRush Posted March 20, 2018 Author Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, GunnerBill said: I didn't say it did but your point was at no point after his first 6 games could we habe got that value back for him. I think we did... two seasons into his career and after a bad injury to boot. Ok I don’t quite agree. I do think that his ACL injury was a huge factor so bad luck might have come into play.
Jay_Fixit Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: Of course he was. In ROY discussion and exchanged directly for the Bills best player still on the roster. You are right and it’s not even close Yeah, I know. 1
BuffaloRush Posted March 20, 2018 Author Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: Of course he was. In ROY discussion and exchanged directly for the Bills best player still on the roster. You are right and it’s not even close No I don’t agree. 1 good season does not constitute a successful draft pick - certainly not a 2nd draft pick. Also watch Kiko’s rookie season. He had a very strong 6 games but his play tailed off after that - especially against the run. He was considered defensive ROY during the first few weeks. The talk quieted down by the end of the year. 1 hour ago, dave mcbride said: Kiko Alonso was actually really good this year for the Dolphins (despite being a thug). Cornelius Bennett wasn't drafted by Polian, but for all intents and purposes he was a Bills draft pick. Yep but this only takes into account draft picks and by trades. Also if Kiko is so good, why is Miami seriously considering drafting Roquon Smith to take his spot.
kota Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 He was bad. WE have had how many coaching changes, scheme changes, and GM's since then?
shrader Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 I'm sure it's been mentioned before, but the whole approach here of grading them by the percentage of hits is seriously flawed. If a guy hits on only the first round selection one year, you're giving that the same exact grade as someone who hits on only the 7th round pick in another year. I'd be curious to see how they'd rate out if you tried to come up with some sort of weighting based on the round of the pick. 2011 and 2012 would definitely get a bit of a boost from that. It might also clear up some of the log jam you're getting with every single GM right around the same percentage.
dave mcbride Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 19 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: No I don’t agree. 1 good season does not constitute a successful draft pick - certainly not a 2nd draft pick. Also watch Kiko’s rookie season. He had a very strong 6 games but his play tailed off after that - especially against the run. He was considered defensive ROY during the first few weeks. The talk quieted down by the end of the year. Yep but this only takes into account draft picks and by trades. Also if Kiko is so good, why is Miami seriously considering drafting Roquon Smith to take his spot. Because Smith appears to be a generational talent - arguably the best LB prospect in a decade. Good teams don't draft for need!
baskingridgebillsfan Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 kiko and spiller are hits anyway you look at it . are they great players ? no but they are solid nfl players and Cj is the draft he came from is solid. ron brooks also stayed in the league for longer than the league average. and how is Goodwin not a hit. third round pick still on the league and just received a nice extension Arthur moat and chris gragg are also hits for the round they are drafted in to still be in the league is a win. very bias reporting 15 hours ago, BuffaloRush said: OK after a few week... it's finally back. As the draft approaches, I'm taking a look at the past General Managers in Buffalo and who was the most successful with the draft based on hits and misses. While this is very subjective, I am defining a "hit" as any player that reasonably performed at or above his draft status. As an example, a player like Paul Pozlusny becoming a solid starting LB as a 2nd round pick. A "miss" is the opposite - a player who performed under or well under their draft status. If you draft a player in the first round and they are a marginal starter, I am defining that as a miss. Also, if a player doesn't have a great career for the Bills, but then has a better career on another team that is not a miss in my opinion. We are dealing strictly on what the draft selections brought to the table for the Bills - not another team. I do realize that this evaluation will certainly stir up some disagreement. However, this is the way that I choose to evaluate and rate player and it will be subjective. Now let's move onto to the next GM Buddy Nix. First, I have decided to give Buddy credit for the 2013 Draft, though some would lead you to believe it was Whaley who took over. Since Nix was GM, he will get the credit or blame. Before you do that - check out my previous evaluations: 1. Russ Brandon: 28% 2. Marv Levy: 25% 3. Bill Polian: 23% Buddy Nix took over the team which has a very poor structure and was largely considered a tire fire. Still many fans, including yours truly, thought Buddy was a terrible hire. Just another employee promoted from within because Ralph didn't trust someone from the outside to make decisions. His first hire as head coach, Chan Gailey, was equally as uninspiring - though I think if Chan would have chosen a better DC, things could have been different. Now how was Buddy in the Draft: Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ 2010 1 C.J. Spiller 9 RB 2017 0 1 3 34 90 712 3451 12 198 1484 9 Clemson 2010 2 Torell Troup 41 DT 2012 0 0 0 3 21 Central Florida 2010 3 Alex Carrington 72 DE 2015 0 0 0 7 59 4.0 Arkansas St. 2010 4 Marcus Easley 107 WR 2015 0 0 0 1 42 3 71 1 1 Connecticut 2010 5 Ed Wang 140 T 2010 0 0 0 0 6 Virginia Tech 2010 6 Arthur Moats 178 LB 2017 0 0 3 21 121 16.5 James Madison 2010 6 Danny Batten 192 DE 2011 0 0 0 2 16 0.5 South Dakota St. 2010 7 Levi Brown 209 QB 2010 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 24 0 1 Troy 2010 7 Kyle Calloway 216 T 0 0 0 Iowa 2010 Draft - I am sorry but this was a terrible terrible draft. Buddy gets a fat 0. 0 Hits, All misses. This is rare but he batted .000 - which really is hard to do. I am sure someone will try to argue for Arthur Moats or Marcus Easley, but no these were NOT hits. Seriously, this was such a terrible draft we should have seen Buddy's bad drafting coming. Taking CJ Spiller and Torell Troup in rounds 1 and 2 should have been a fireable offense. Spiller did have his moments with the Bills, but the bottom line is he was a Top 10 premium pick and he never realized his potential. This was a bad pick for a team that had Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch at RB. Hits 0 Misses 9 0% Success Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ 2011 1 Marcell Dareus 3 DT 2017 1 2 5 49 100 36.0 Alabama 2011 2 Aaron Williams 34 DB 2016 0 0 2 18 59 7 Texas 2011 3 Kelvin Sheppard 68 LB 2017 0 0 4 26 100 2 3.0 LSU 2011 4 Da'Norris Searcy 100 DB 2017 0 0 2 24 107 8 4.5 North Carolina 2011 4 Chris Hairston 122 T 2017 0 0 1 19 74 Clemson 2011 5 Johnny White 133 RB 2012 0 0 0 0 19 20 72 0 1 -3 0 North Carolina 2011 6 Chris White 169 LB 2014 0 0 0 4 51 Mississippi St. 2011 7 Justin Rogers 206 DB 2015 0 0 0 4 43 3 Richmond 2011 7 Michael Jasper 245 DT 0 0 0 2011 - Give Buddy credit. Unlike 2010, he made some very solid and safe picks and drafted well in Rounds 1 and 2. Hits: Marcel Dareus - He was drafted very high but when motivated, Marcel was one of the best DT's in the NFL. He played very well during his few years with the Bills....then Whaley signed him to a huge deal and he became another dude. He's still a pretty good player, though not the same cat who dominated in 2013-2014. Aaron Williams - It took him a few years, but Williams was a competent safety and the field general for the Bills. Injuries cut his career short but for a 2nd round pick, Williams delivered on his draft status. Da'Norris Searcy - He was never a star at safety but he started for about 1 1/2 seasons and played pretty well. Overall for a 4th round pick, it's a HIT. 3 Hits/6 Misses 33% Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ 2012 1 Stephon Gilmore 10 DB 2017 0 1 6 29 81 16 South Carolina 2012 2 Cordy Glenn 41 G 2017 0 0 5 34 78 Georgia 2012 3 T.J. Graham 69 WR 2015 0 0 1 7 47 5 19 0 61 794 4 North Carolina St. 2012 4 Nigel Bradham 105 LB 2017 0 0 5 33 88 2 6.5 Florida St. 2012 4 Ron Brooks 124 DB 2016 0 0 0 6 52 LSU 2012 5 Zebrie Sanders 144 OL 2012 0 0 0 0 Florida St. 2012 5 Tank Carder 147 LB 2016 0 0 0 5 78 TCU 2012 6 Mark Asper 178 G 2014 0 0 0 0 7 Oregon 2012 7 John Potter 251 K 2013 0 0 0 0 9 West. Michigan 2012 3 Hits/9 Misses 33% Success Almost identical to 2011. Solid picks in Round 1 and 2, 1 good pick in the 4th round, and a punch of crap. Gilmore started slowly but had several quality years with the Bills. Many fans (including me) might argue he never was a good as the billing some give him. He is not a lockdown corner. But there's no denying he's a very very good CB. Cordy in the second round was probably Nix's best selection. When healthy, you can make the case for Cordy being one of the too 10 tackles in the NFL. Bradham is a very good LB. Not a star or a Pro Bowl LB, but he can definitely contribute and become an important part of the defense. The rest of the draft was terrible. TJ Graham at #3 was a pick many thought was poor and it sure did turn out that way. Still solid drafting at the top of the round saved Buddy here. Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ 2013 1 EJ Manuel 16 QB 2017 0 0 1 10 30 343 590 3767 20 16 96 339 4 Florida St. 2013 2 Robert Woods 41 WR 2017 0 0 5 26 69 6 34 0 259 3232 17 USC 2013 2 Kiko Alonso 46 LB 2017 0 0 3 25 58 7 3.0 Oregon 2013 3 Marquise Goodwin 78 WR 2017 0 0 2 14 55 10 65 0 105 1742 8 Texas 2013 4 Duke Williams 105 DB 2016 0 0 0 8 58 1 1.0 Nevada 2013 5 Jonathan Meeks 143 DB 2016 0 0 0 2 38 Clemson 2013 6 Dustin Hopkins 177 K 2017 0 0 3 7 39 Florida St. 2013 7 Chris Gragg 222 TE 2015 0 0 0 1 32 24 251 2 Arkansas 2013 Buddy left the Bills with a crap parting gift the likes we haven't seen since John Butler's 2000 draft. 1 Hit/7 Misses 14% Success I am sure many people will debate 2013 and that's fine. One thing you can't debate is EJ Manuel. It was a reach for a 3rd round QB who might have been available two rounds later. This selection set the team back for 2 seasons. It wasn't until Tyrod Taylor actually helped bail the team out of QB purgatory (slightly). Roberts Woods is a tough call. He had a breakout season but remember - this is only his performance on the Bills. Overall, I'd say he was a solid WR for the Bills and that his performance was close to a 2nd round selection to warrant a hit. Goodwin also had a breakout year in 2017 but he couldn't stay healthy as a member of the Bills. His performance does not justify a 3rd round pick. Kiko Alonso is a player I am sure some will argue for being hit. He was certainly a fast LB who has a HUGE 6 games of his rookie year but his performance began to slip as the year went on. Overall I just don't think his play lived up to his 2nd round selection and no you say "well he was traded for Lesean McCoy so that makes him a Hit." Nope. OVERALL 7 Hits/28 Misses 25% Success Hey, Buddy had his moments at the top of the draft for a few season, but overall he missed out on too many great players. Rather than being remembered for solid picks like Gilmore or Cordy Glenn, I think fans will attach him to Torrel Troupe and EJ Manuel. Buddy was probably a very good scout but I think this list shows that scouting is where he should have stayed. So here are the standings so far: 1. Russ Brandon: 28% 2. Marv Levy: 25% 3. Buddy Nix: 25% 4. Bill Polian: 23% sorry but your conclusion are incorrect and unfair. 1
BuffaloRush Posted March 20, 2018 Author Posted March 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, baskingridgebillsfan said: kiko and spiller are hits anyway you look at it . are they great players ? no but they are solid nfl players and Cj is the draft he came from is solid. ron brooks also stayed in the league for longer than the league average. and how is Goodwin not a hit. third round pick still on the league and just received a nice extension Arthur moat and chris gragg are also hits for the round they are drafted in to still be in the league is a win. very bias reporting sorry but your conclusion are incorrect and unfair. Thats ok. It’s not a perfect system but there isn’t a perfect situation out there. Determining what constitutes as “successful” draft pic is arbitrary. What hurts Polian is the fact that he had way more picks than most other GM’s due to 12 round drafts. His number is somewhat decieveing but it is what it is 19 minutes ago, shrader said: I'm sure it's been mentioned before, but the whole approach here of grading them by the percentage of hits is seriously flawed. If a guy hits on only the first round selection one year, you're giving that the same exact grade as someone who hits on only the 7th round pick in another year. I'd be curious to see how they'd rate out if you tried to come up with some sort of weighting based on the round of the pick. 2011 and 2012 would definitely get a bit of a boost from that. It might also clear up some of the log jam you're getting with every single GM right around the same percentage. Thats actually a very good idea but it hard to quantify.
GunnerBill Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said: Ok I don’t quite agree. I do think that his ACL injury was a huge factor so bad luck might have come into play. You don't agree that we got at least equal to a 2nd round pick when we traded him for Shady?
shrader Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 41 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: Thats ok. It’s not a perfect system but there isn’t a perfect situation out there. Determining what constitutes as “successful” draft pic is arbitrary. What hurts Polian is the fact that he had way more picks than most other GM’s due to 12 round drafts. His number is somewhat decieveing but it is what it is Thats actually a very good idea but it hard to quantify. I'd just reverse the scoring, 1 point for a 7th round hit and 7 points for a first round hit. Add them all up and then divide by the total number of possible points for that draft year. That way, you also account for having more or less picks in any given year. It's not all that scientific, but it's something. 1
dpberr Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 I never liked the CJ Spiller pick at #8. Textbook case of a great athlete masquerading as a competent football player. I think prioritizing athletes over football players was a problem Nix and Whaley both had with their drafts. 1
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 15 hours ago, BuffaloRush said: Yeah the 12 round drafts definitely do hurt Polian. Still I stand by my rankings. If I cut Polian off at Round 7, he’d lose some of the good picks her made late in the draft Moats is really close. Might need to reconsider A sixth rounder that played in 120 games is a miss ?
rodneykm Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 Oh man I remember how people on the "other message board" were so high on Michael Jasper back in the day.....lol
Lurker Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said: Also watch Kiko’s rookie season. He had a very strong 6 games but his play tailed off after that - especially against the run. He was considered defensive ROY during the first few weeks. The talk quieted down by the end of the year. Doh.... http://www.buffalobills.com/news/article-1/Kiko-Alonso-named-PFWA-Defensive-Rookie-of-the-Year/8424f08d-e0ad-44a1-92ba-330046ca3a91 http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1945065-nfl-rookie-of-the-year-2013-14-results-offensive-defensive-winners-and-recap NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Voting Player Position No. of votes Sheldon Richardson, New York Jets DE 23 Kiko Alonso, Buffalo Bills LB 19 Kenny Vaccaro, New Orleans Saints S 4 Tyrann Mathieu, Arizona Cardinals S 2 Star Lotulelei, Carolina Panthers DT 2 Edited March 20, 2018 by Lurker
BuffaloRush Posted March 20, 2018 Author Posted March 20, 2018 (edited) 44 minutes ago, shrader said: I'd just reverse the scoring, 1 point for a 7th round hit and 7 points for a first round hit. Add them all up and then divide by the total number of possible points for that draft year. That way, you also account for having more or less picks in any given year. It's not all that scientific, but it's something. That makes sense. But shouldn’t a hit in the seventh round be worth more points than a hit in the first round? Percentage wise a large number of first round talents have a much greater success rate than in the later rounds. If you can find a hit at the bottom of the draft, it shows some good decision making IMO 12 minutes ago, Lurker said: Doh.... http://www.buffalobills.com/news/article-1/Kiko-Alonso-named-PFWA-Defensive-Rookie-of-the-Year/8424f08d-e0ad-44a1-92ba-330046ca3a91 Are we going to pull out secondary and honors now? Regardless, 1 productive season does not make him a hit in my book. 24 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: A sixth rounder that played in 120 games is a miss ? He’s certainly close. But in the grand scheme of things he had mininmal impact on the team. Also he didn’t play 120 games on the Bills. The evaluation takes into account their time on the Bills only. Games played is not a good indicator of success. Based on your rationale Todd Collins was a hit in the 2nd round. Edited March 20, 2018 by BuffaloRush
Lurker Posted March 20, 2018 Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: Are we going to pull out secondary and honors now? Regardless, 1 productive season does not make him a hit in my book. Off to the ignore bin for you... 1
BuffaloRush Posted March 20, 2018 Author Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, Lurker said: Off to the ignore bin for you... I would expect nothing less.... I guess one year of production constitutes a good pick?
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