House Money: Why Beane will trade up & you should be fine with it

[Scorp83]

8 hours ago, K-9 said:

Anything BUT house money. Those were OUR assets we gave up in order to acquire that additional draft capital; our investment in time and money on the players traded. No house money involved.

Very good point! I didn't think of it that way. We definitely gave up pur assets... yea... again great point!

[Boca BIlls]

10 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Having “house money” does not justify taking imprudent risks.  Say I won a thousand $ on a $2 scratch off.  That doesn’t mean that I should spend that thousand on more scratch offs.

Wtf... A QB is $5000 a week for life type of scratch off.

[njbuff]

10 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Then it had better not happen. That would be highway robbery.

 

I don't know man.

 

If a team knows you are trading up for a QB......... you are overpaying.

 

Example........ remember when the Dolphins went from 12 to 3 to get Jordan. It only cost the Carp their second round pick that year.

 

Wel'll see how this plays out.

[Boca BIlls]

1 minute ago, njbuff said:

 

I don't know man.

 

If a team knows you are trading up for a QB......... you are overpaying.

 

Example........ remember when the Dolphins went from 12 to 3 to get Jordan. It only cost the Carp their second round pick that year.

 

Wel'll see how this plays out.

Uh ohh here we go with the "Overpay" bull **** agan.

[ALF]

To move up to #2  might  offer #12  ,  #22  ,   2019  #1   and a player if necessary. Maybe 2019 , 2nd rd also

 

The Bills need the remainder of 2018 picks  for needed players now. 

 

With all the cap space in 2019 from dead cap leaving , will have plenty of cap space for free agency to cover loss of 2019 #1.

 

Giants will have big time offers after Jets moved to #3. This could be the most important draft ever.

Edited March 20, 2018 by ALF

[Sky Diver]

10 hours ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

I completely recognize that.  The reward is worth the risk.

 

The possibility also exists we keep all 5 picks and we draft 5 disappointments.  Any draft pick is a risk.

 

5 top picks that are all disappointments? That is highly unlikely. 

[Fadingpain]

10 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Having “house money” does not justify taking imprudent risks.  Say I won a thousand $ on a $2 scratch off.  That doesn’t mean that I should spend that thousand on more scratch offs.

If you are suggesting trading up to get a franchise QB for the first time since Jim Kelly in a quality QB rich draft is an "imprudent risk" you are out of your f-ing mind.

 

No offense.

 

 

[OldTimer1960]

4 hours ago, Boca BIlls said:

Wtf... A QB is $5000 a week for life type of scratch off.

A GREAT QB is that.  Blake Bortles and Jameis Winston or worse are FAR more likely than Brees, Brady or Rodgers (none of whom were actually drafted d at the very top of round 1).

 

Would people trade 3 1sts plus more for Jameis Winston?  Actually, how many current QBs would you really trade that much for?  I think Rodgers, Brady and Brees, maybe 1 or 2 more.

 

 

Edited March 20, 2018 by OldTimer1960

[wppete]

I think this should do it:

 

#12 (2018)

#22 (2018)

2nd round pick (2018)

2nd round pick (2019)

3rd round pick (2018)

 

Draft Darnorld or Rosen at #2

Edited March 20, 2018 by wppete

[Jauronimo]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Did you inherit your car from someone else?

 

Was it a car you just kinda had thrust upon you?

 

Was it a car that you really weren't all that excited about at all?

 

Do you have a spare car?

 

 

If you answered "yes" to all of the above, then go right ahead, although again, the lotto ticket analogy is a poor one. Instead, sell the car on Craigslist for whatever cash you can get and utilize that money for a down payment for a new car that will be a massive upgrade on that other car you really didn't invest in at all but also didn't really want

Did we inherit Cordy Glenn? Did we inherit picks 21 and 22?  Were these players and picks thrust upon us?  Do we have spare or excess talent at the offensive tackle position? 

[HappyDays]

12 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

How is it house money when we gave up assets to acquire those picks?

 

Because the assets we gave up actually had zero value to us.

 

We gave up pick 10 last year to get pick 22 this year. But Tre White would have been a great pick even at 10. So we got a player worth 10th overall AND an additional 1st rounder. We gave up zero value to get pick 22.

 

Sammy was never going to re-sign here. After 2017 he had zero value to us. We got a 2nd rounder for zero value.

 

Glenn was gone no matter what. After drafting Dawkins and his injury he had zero value to us.

 

So I would say picks 22, 56, and 12 are house money. But we'll need to give up more than that to get pick 2.

[reddogblitz]

16 hours ago, swnybillsfan said:

even if he is not a hall of famer or an all pro, he could be a top ten qb. and a top ten qb would be a wonderful thing to have. i just don't want to watch any more games where it looks like we are not even playing the same sport as the rest of the league. here's to hoping! 

 

Yet we were better at it than 20 other teams.

[Domdab99]

What makes you think the Giants are going to agree to a trade? 

[RPbillsfan]

16 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

I think the compensation is close. But we'll need to throw in a 2 next year. And I think it's going to have to be two separate trades. 12, 53, 65 to Indy for #6.

 

Then 6, 22, and a 2nd in '19 to NYG for #2.

What the Jets stupidly paid in current and future draft choices does not set the market. The difference between 12 Point value and 6 point value is 400 points.  I would give 12, 53 and our 5th to move to 6.  Not one thing more.

 

Worst case is Darnold, Rosen and Allen go 1,2,3.  Cleveland may trade out to Arizona at 4.  If they take Jackson, I stay at 12 and draft best player available and keep all of my picks.

 

i don't want Baker Mayfield as I see him with a much higher bust potential as a fit in Buffalo.

 

id rather take my LB at 12 and WR at 22, then if necessary trade one 2nd and one 3rd to move up and get Mason Rudolph.

[transplantbillsfan]

7 hours ago, Real McCoy said:

OK, that's fine and I agree with that 100% as well. For the record I want nothing to do with Josh Allen.

Did they really need to jump up to #2 using so much draft stock to do it though when 4 of these guys grade out almost the same?  

 

Best case for me, draft our QB somewhere between 12 and 7 and use 22 on a stud LB'er. 

 

I'd love to only have to trade up to 7. And if 4 QBs grade out almost the same... okay then.

 

Daniel Jeremiah recently compared his top 10 prospects in the 2016-2018 drafts and he basically says the difference between Darnold, Wentzville, Goff, and Rosen is negligible and he puts Mayfield and Allen ahead of Watson and Trubisky.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000922045/article/top-10-qb-prospects-of-past-3-nfl-draft-classes-darnold-no-1

 

So ya know what... if that's the case I'm still targeting Darnold, Rosen and Mayfield over Allen, but I'll eventually get excited about Allen's physical potential even if he doesn't have the college production the way Wentz or Big Ben or Flacco did at smaller schools against lesser competition even though that's what I think we should expect.

 

The problem is that even if we have those 4 guys graded out about the same, there's a good chance you're going to have to trade up to get one of them anyway because all 4 could be gone in the top 10.

[transplantbillsfan]

7 hours ago, ALF said:

To move up to #2  might  offer #12  ,  #22  ,   2019  #1   and a player if necessary. Maybe 2019 , 2nd rd also

 

The Bills need the remainder of 2018 picks  for needed players now. 

 

With all the cap space in 2019 from dead cap leaving , will have plenty of cap space for free agency to cover loss of 2019 #1.

 

Giants will have big time offers after Jets moved to #3. This could be the most important draft ever.

 

You're seriously underpaying if you think that's how we get to #2.

 

I just think that won't get it done.

3 hours ago, wppete said:

I think this should do it:

 

#12 (2018)

#22 (2018)

2nd round pick (2018)

2nd round pick (2019)

3rd round pick (2018)

 

Draft Darnorld or Rosen at #2

 

Yeah I think that's about right. Might need to throw in a 4th rounder this year, though.

3 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

A GREAT QB is that.  Blake Bortles and Jameis Winston or worse are FAR more likely than Brees, Brady or Rodgers (none of whom were actually drafted d at the very top of round 1).

 

Would people trade 3 1sts plus more for Jameis Winston?  Actually, how many current QBs would you really trade that much for?  I think Rodgers, Brady and Brees, maybe 1 or 2 more.

 

A GM should do his HW and draft a QB in the top of the draft assuming, based on your scouting, that he's going to be a future HOFer. You don't refuse to go after that QB simply because the historical odds are he won't.

 

 

Edited March 20, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[RochesterRob]

7 hours ago, Boca BIlls said:

Wtf... A QB is $5000 a week for life type of scratch off.

  Yeah, and how often does anybody hit on that?  Might as well drop a buck on lotto and at least work the dollar menu at McDonald's.  Be money ahead.

[swnybillsfan]

4 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Yet we were better at it than 20 other teams.

indeed we were. we got a bunch of the lucky bounces and bad calls in our favor last year. the rest of the afc was down. we have a great running back. and tyrod taylor, while having his flaws, also has some strengths to his game. i also thought that the team as a whole really bought into what mcdermott was selling. but we also had some horrific offensive performances. and the qb was benched for a rookie that was completely exploited when thrown to the wolves, all because the offense was completely inept at times. i am ready to have fun watching this offense play football. 

[Irv]

22 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

The draft capital we'll give up is house money, even if it's all the way up to the Giants' #2 pick.

 

(Obviously all of this is merely opinion  ... I apologize for adding one more thread to a seemingly inundated and frustrated board)

 

 

Our #12 pick was the result of swapping 1sts and trading away a player who may have played well for this team in years past but almost never saw the field (did he ever?) in 2017, our first playoff year in 17 years as a rookie filled in capably for the year and will only get better.

 

Our #22 pick was from KC last year in our trade down in the 1st where we acquired a guy in Tre White who probably should have been in the pro bowl conversation if not the pro bowl itself.

 

One of our 2nd rounders was acquired trading away a talented but oft-injured WR who then wasn't even resigned by the same team who traded for him. And based on Sammy's new salary with KC, he wouldn't be with the Bills even if McDermott exercised his 5th year rookie option.

 

One of our 3rd rounders... the 1st one in the 3rd round, was acquired by trading away a QB that there was absolutely no long term plan on and filled in his slot with a QB who is at least capable of competing for the starting QB job at less than 1/3rd the cost of the guy we just traded away.

 

 

We take those 4 picks, all "house money," and trade them all to the Giants for the #2 pick to grab Rosen/Darnold/Mayfield (please GOD not Allen!!!) and Beane still has all of Buffalo's original picks with a pick in all the remaining rounds other than the 7th.

 

 

And before you say that cost isn't realistic, if you take a look at the Jimmy Johnson draft chart, I think you'll find different:

 

#12 = 1200 points 

#22 = 780 points 

#53 = 370 points 

#65 = 265 points 

 

Grand total = 2615 points 

 

#2 pick = 2600 points

 

So we're giving away picks Beane has been shrewdly acquiring, not picks we were already going to naturally possess. Now, perhaps it's going to take one more pick like a 2nd rounders next year to sweeten the pot a little, but maybe not. 

 

And that's in trading up to #2, which I believe is the highest we're going. Imagine if we wait until draft day and see a guy we want fall to #4 with the Browns or #6 with the Colts... it'll cost less and we'll still get our QB.

 

I'm a little baffled that some are complaining about the idea of giving up draft picks, even if it ensures McBeane can get "their guy." 

 

I view this as the most important draft we've seen since maybe 1983 because we know with almost 100% certainty that the intent is to draft the guy who's going to be our QB for the next 10-15+ years.

 

We can do that in a very strong QB draft class... and we can do it with house money

 

Either it was you or some other dude who stole your idea called Shope and Bulldog today.  Great points.  I think the Giants will draft a QB. I don't know why a lot of folks assume they will stick with almost 40 year old Eli much longer.  

Edited March 20, 2018 by Irv

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

Did we inherit Cordy Glenn? Did we inherit picks 21 and 22?  Were these players and picks thrust upon us?  Do we have spare or excess talent at the offensive tackle position? 

 

Who's this "us" and "we" you're referring to as though we take part in what we should keep and not keep?

 

No, we didn't inherit Cordy Glenn, McDermott and Beane did.

 

And did they use him AT ALL last year? 

 

Can you, miss something you never really used?

 

Last year Dawkins and Mills we're our tackles and McDermott never ever knew an offense that consisted of Cordy Glenn as LT.

 

And we didn't inherit the 21st and 22nd pick, McDermott and Beane earned them when they traded down in the draft last year.

1 hour ago, Irv said:

 

Either it was you or some other dude who stole your idea called Shope and Bulldog today.  Great points.  I think the Giants will draft a QB. I don't know why a lot of folks assume they will stick with almost 40 year old Eli much longer.  

 

Someone else referenced Schopp in this thread... no, I definitely didn't call in I've never listened to him. I live 6,000 miles away from Buffalo.

 

Maybe he's a TBD member