House Money: Why Beane will trade up & you should be fine with it

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, #34fan said:

 

  Puh -leaze... Jeremiah's been all over the place with his wacky rankings. Check out this top 10 ranking from a couple years back!

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000647484/article/top-10-quarterback-draft-prospects-since-2011

 

Sure, I might find myself on an Island... But unlike you,  I won't find myself at a casino using my personal credit cards as "house money".  

 

Really not understanding the spirit of that term here, are you?

[#34fan]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Really not understanding the spirit of that term here, are you?

 

Full disclosure... I gamble.

 

I'd feel more like the  picks were "house" funds if we were set at ILB, DT, OT, WR, and TE... Since there are holes at these positions, it seems we're actually

 

"down" a bit... IMO, whatever was scraped together can't all be dumped on a hand of blackjack, a spin of roulette, or in our case, a horse we got a tip on.

 

We need to be wise... Move around... Little here.. Little there... Hit the blackjack table,  then the OTB,  red on roulette. -diversify, and build up slowly.

 

I've spent 10 hours on a casino floor, and quadrupled my money... I've also busted out in under 10 minutes because I was desperate to come up BIG.

 

I have no doubt that there'll be a time in the near future when we WILL be up, and playing with house funds... That time, IMWO, is not now.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 27, 2018 by #34fan

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, #34fan said:

 

Full disclosure... I gamble.

 

I'd feel more like the  picks were "house" funds if we were set at ILB, DT, OT, WR, and TE... Since there are holes at these positions, it seems we're actually

 

"down" a bit... IMO, whatever was scraped together can't all be dumped on a hand of blackjack, a spin of roulette, or in our case, a horse we got a tip on.

 

We need to be wise... Move around... Little here.. Little there... Hit the blackjack table,  then the OTB,  red on roulette. -diversify, and build up slowly.

 

I've spent 10 hours on a casino floor, and quadrupled my money... I've also busted out in under 10 minutes because I was desperate to come up BIG.

 

I have no doubt that there'll be a time in the near future when we WILL be up, and playing with house funds... That time, IMWO, is not now.

 

Having fun?

 

I don't gamble, so I don't care that you could easily nitpick the analogy as a whole and argue that it's not actual "house money..." 

 

We made the playoffs last year with essentially the same roster we're going to have next season already. Some might argue we're better at several positions.

 

We'll find our other positions if we need them: MLB, C, WR, etc...

 

Time to seriously and sternly address the most important position in sports.

 

Come up with an analogy that connects with a GM and HC who had one 1st round pick last year, traded down to acquire a 2nd 1st rounder this year while also drafting a stud in the 1st round, trading a WR they inherited who would have been gone after one year anyway for a 2nd rounder, trading an LT who literally they never even saw in meaningful regularseason action for a move up 9 spots in the 1st round, and trading a QB they also inherited and clearly wanted to upgrade on for the 1st pick in the 3rd round.

 

They acquired a second 1st rounder this year by trading down and still getting a guy who based on his production would have been worthy of the 10th pick in the draft. Then they also added a 2nd rounder, the 1st pick in the 3rd round and moved up 9 spots in the 1st round by trading guys who almost certainly wouldn't even be on this team right now otherwise and may have been let go for nothing or much less. 2 of those guys McBeane never even benefited from and the other was at the position they were clearly trying to upgrade on.

 

1 1st, one 2nd, one 3rd we have as a result of one shrewd maneuver and getting something in return for 3 players Beane and McDermott inherited and had no long term plans with... 2 of whom they never reaped any on-field benefits from anyway and 1 who a year ago at the draft it was clearly set in motion to draft his replacement... yeah, I'm calling it House Money

Edited March 27, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[billsredneck1]

On 3/19/2018 at 7:57 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

The draft capital we'll give up is house money, even if it's all the way up to the Giants' #2 pick.

 

(Obviously all of this is merely opinion  ... I apologize for adding one more thread to a seemingly inundated and frustrated board)

 

 

Our #12 pick was the result of swapping 1sts and trading away a player who may have played well for this team in years past but almost never saw the field (did he ever?) in 2017, our first playoff year in 17 years as a rookie filled in capably for the year and will only get better.

 

Our #22 pick was from KC last year in our trade down in the 1st where we acquired a guy in Tre White who probably should have been in the pro bowl conversation if not the pro bowl itself.

 

One of our 2nd rounders was acquired trading away a talented but oft-injured WR who then wasn't even resigned by the same team who traded for him. And based on Sammy's new salary with KC, he wouldn't be with the Bills even if McDermott exercised his 5th year rookie option.

 

One of our 3rd rounders... the 1st one in the 3rd round, was acquired by trading away a QB that there was absolutely no long term plan on and filled in his slot with a QB who is at least capable of competing for the starting QB job at less than 1/3rd the cost of the guy we just traded away.

 

 

We take those 4 picks, all "house money," and trade them all to the Giants for the #2 pick to grab Rosen/Darnold/Mayfield (please GOD not Allen!!!) and Beane still has all of Buffalo's original picks with a pick in all the remaining rounds other than the 7th.

 

 

And before you say that cost isn't realistic, if you take a look at the Jimmy Johnson draft chart, I think you'll find different:

 

#12 = 1200 points 

#22 = 780 points 

#53 = 370 points 

#65 = 265 points 

 

Grand total = 2615 points 

 

#2 pick = 2600 points

 

So we're giving away picks Beane has been shrewdly acquiring, not picks we were already going to naturally possess. Now, perhaps it's going to take one more pick like a 2nd rounders next year to sweeten the pot a little, but maybe not. 

 

And that's in trading up to #2, which I believe is the highest we're going. Imagine if we wait until draft day and see a guy we want fall to #4 with the Browns or #6 with the Colts... it'll cost less and we'll still get our QB.

 

I'm a little baffled that some are complaining about the idea of giving up draft picks, even if it ensures McBeane can get "their guy." 

 

I view this as the most important draft we've seen since maybe 1983 because we know with almost 100% certainty that the intent is to draft the guy who's going to be our QB for the next 10-15+ years.

 

We can do that in a very strong QB draft class... and we can do it with house money

i haven't read all the posts yet but like john murphy, i don't like the term house money. those picks were for assets the we bought and paid for. they weren't just handed to us. i think there's a cut off point to what beane will give up.

 

  i also think there's a good chance cleveland keeps their no.4.  if we do trade to 6, i could deal with that, but wouldn't be happy about having to give up the other 1st to do it.

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, billsredneck1 said:

i haven't read all the posts yet but like john murphy, i don't like the term house money. those picks were for assets the we bought and paid for. they weren't just handed to us. i think there's a cut off point to what beane will give up.

 

  i also think there's a good chance cleveland keeps their no.4.  if we do trade to 6, i could deal with that, but wouldn't be happy about having to give up the other 1st to do it.

 

I think we acquired that other 1st last year intending to use it this year as draft capital to trade up and get a QB McBeane really love this year because McDermott didn't really love anyone last year.

[gobills1212]

6 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I think we acquired that other 1st last year intending to use it this year as draft capital to trade up and get a QB McBeane really love this year because McDermott didn't really love anyone last year.

A very common thought, and hopefully correct regardless of choice

[greeneblitz]

If they believe their guyis a lock to be a franchise QB they should be willing to trade ever single pick this year, nothing else matters, no other position counts.

Edited March 27, 2018 by greeneblitz

[#34fan]

11 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Having fun?

 

I don't gamble, so I don't care that you could easily nitpick the analogy as a whole and argue that it's not actual "house money..." 

 

yeah, I'm calling it House Money

 

Sure... Don't let a thing like having zero clue what you're talking about shut you down... TBH, that's not as puzzling as the white-hot man-crush you have on

 

Daniel Jeremiah... A man who's wacky grading scale has Carson Wentz four spots lower than RGIII, and Bortles coming in behind Johnny Manziel... It clearly

 

has no basis in NFL reality.. Yet,  here you are wanting to bet everything on a prospect Jeremiah ranks higher than someone who's proved he can post double

 

digit wins in an NFL season!  It's Crazy-talk!  Just like your basis for this entire misnomered thread...   

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 27, 2018 by #34fan

[apuszczalowski]

2 hours ago, greeneblitz said:

If they believe their guyis a lock to be a franchise QB they should be willing to trade ever single pick this year, nothing else matters, no other position counts.

Yup, just ask the Colts how that's working out.....

 

If their line is busy you could also contact the Lions too.

[transplantbillsfan]

8 minutes ago, #34fan said:

 

Sure... Don't let a thing like having zero clue what you're talking about shut you down... TBH, that's not as puzzling as the white-hot man-crush you have on

 

Daniel Jeremiah... A man who's wacky grading scale has Carson Wentz four spots lower than RGIII, and Bortles coming in behind Johnny Manziel... It clearly

 

has no basis in NFL reality.. Yet,  here you are wanting to bet everything on a prospect Jeremiah ranks higher than someone who's proved he can post double

 

digit wins in an NFL season!  It's Crazy-talk!  Just like your basis for this entire misnomered thread...   

 

 

No, I don't have zero clue.

 

I have what would probably be considered the average clue of the layman.

 

I don't have the clue of a gambling addict, though.

 

The thread was, I think, pretty straightforward about why we can feel comfortable about Beane giving away those 4 picks to move up for a QB and why those 4 picks he'd quickly give away if they were all it took to get up to #2.

 

You want to get hung up on the term itself because it doesn't exactly match your definition, complain about it with the guys at your meeting later today.

4 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said:

Yup, just ask the Colts how that's working out.....

 

If their line is busy you could also contact the Lions too.

 

Terrible examples.  Really terrible analogies, actually.

 

Neither the Colts or the Lions traded up to draft Luck or Stafford at #1.  They were just terrible enough teams to earn the #1 pick.  And then their GMs were terrible and didn't draft the supporting casts well.

 

[GunnerBill]

Okay just listened to Beane's presser from yesterday. Conclusions?

 

- The Bills are trading up to #2 so long as Cleveland doesn't take their guy #1 overall;

- It won't happen until draft night;

- The Bills and Giants have an agreed price and it includes the Bills 2019 #1;

- This is NOT a 2 move trade. It is a 1 jump #12 to #2. 

- Beane would be a terrible poker player. 

 

I said after the first post season presser he gave at the Senior Bowl "no way the Bills are staying at #21 and #22". I say again today that unless Cleveland takes their guy (I think Rosen and Allen are the two possibles for 'their guy') the Bills are going to go up to #2. I don't think Beane is that hard to read. He gives a lot of his intentions away without meaning to. 

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Okay just listened to Beane's presser from yesterday. Conclusions?

 

- The Bills are trading up to #2 so long as Cleveland doesn't take their guy #1 overall;

- It won't happen until draft night;

- The Bills and Giants have an agreed price and it includes the Bills 2019 #1;

- This is NOT a 2 move trade. It is a 1 jump #12 to #2. 

- Beane would be a terrible poker player. 

 

I said after the first post season presser he gave at the Senior Bowl "no way the Bills are staying at #21 and #22". I say again today that unless Cleveland takes their guy (I think Rosen and Allen are the two possibles for 'their guy') the Bills are going to go up to #2. I don't think Beane is that hard to read. He gives a lot of his intentions away without meaning to. 

Well, if it's Rosen, he'll be there.  Allen is a maybe.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

Okay just listened to Beane's presser from yesterday. Conclusions?

 

- The Bills are trading up to #2 so long as Cleveland doesn't take their guy #1 overall;

- It won't happen until draft night;

- The Bills and Giants have an agreed price and it includes the Bills 2019 #1;

- This is NOT a 2 move trade. It is a 1 jump #12 to #2. 

- Beane would be a terrible poker player. 

 

I said after the first post season presser he gave at the Senior Bowl "no way the Bills are staying at #21 and #22". I say again today that unless Cleveland takes their guy (I think Rosen and Allen are the two possibles for 'their guy') the Bills are going to go up to #2. I don't think Beane is that hard to read. He gives a lot of his intentions away without meaning to. 

Don't get me wrong I would like this. But are the Giants not taking a QB (when Manning is 37?) and dropping to #12 in spite of Gettleman never having traded down before?

 

I hope you're right but right now I'm thinking:

1-2-3 Allen, Darnold, Rosen in some order

4 Barkley to Cle

5 Mayfield or Chubb

6 Indy Chubb if Den takes Mayfield

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Well, if it's Rosen, he'll be there.  Allen is a maybe.

 

Agree. I think Allen will but am not 100%. 

2 minutes ago, horned dogs said:

Don't get me wrong I would like this. But are the Giants not taking a QB (when Manning is 37?) and dropping to #12 in spite of Gettleman never having traded down before?

 

I hope you're right but right now I'm thinking:

1-2-3 Allen, Darnold, Rosen in some order

4 Barkley to Cle

5 Mayfield or Chubb

6 Indy Chubb if Den takes Mayfield

 

If the Giants draft a Quarterback at #2 you can call me wrong. I have been adament all offseason that they will not and I still say that. I would if I were their GM but I think they still believe in Eli and are loading up for a run with him. 

 

Edit: I think the top 6 looks like:

 

1. CLE - Darnold

2. BUF - Rosen

3. NYJ - Allen

4. CLE - Barkley

5. DEN - Nelson

6. IND - Chubb

Edited March 27, 2018 by GunnerBill

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree. I think Allen will but am not 100%. 

 

If the Giants draft a Quarterback at #2 you can call me wrong. I have been adament all offseason that they will not and I still say that. I would if I were their GM but I think they still believe in Eli and are loading up for a run with him. 

OK You don't believe Darnold will be picked by Giants at 2. 

Do you think Bills like Rosen better than Darnold?

 

[Bing Bong]

i don't care what happens as long as we get our stud MLB and the QB the staff wants. Anything else out of the draft is a cherry on top.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, horned dogs said:

OK You don't believe Darnold will be picked by Giants at 2. 

Do you think Bills like Rosen better than Darnold?

 

 

I don't think the Bills like Darnold. He strikes me as way too gunslinger for McDermott. He is the one QB of the top 6 here who has never seen a throw he doesn't like and attempts throws he shouldn't. 

 

I have put my predicted top 6 in my post above. 

[Bing Bong]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree. I think Allen will but am not 100%. 

 

If the Giants draft a Quarterback at #2 you can call me wrong. I have been adament all offseason that they will not and I still say that. I would if I were their GM but I think they still believe in Eli and are loading up for a run with him. 

 

Edit: I think the top 6 looks like:

 

1. CLE - Darnold

2. BUF - Rosen

3. NYJ - Allen

4. CLE - Barkley

5. DEN - Nelson

6. IND - Chubb

that's be a great draft pick for Indy

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think the Bills like Darnold. He strikes me as way too gunslinger for McDermott. He is the one QB of the top 6 here who has never seen a throw he doesn't like and attempts throws he shouldn't. 

 

I have put my predicted top 6 in my post above. 

Is Allen a bit of a gunslinger?

[Bing Bong]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think the Bills like Darnold. He strikes me as way too gunslinger for McDermott. He is the one QB of the top 6 here who has never seen a throw he doesn't like and attempts throws he shouldn't. 

 

I have put my predicted top 6 in my post above. 

isn't that the definition of "throwing a reciever open" we've been clamoring for? Hate that term, just sounds like a bad throw the WR (which we don't have outside KB) has to make a play on.

 

I want the Bills to get whatever QB they want. They know much much more than we do, I'll defer to them. If we don't want to build our WR corps sounds like Rosen is the better fit.