It's a Good Year For QB's Because There Are a Lot, Not Because They Are Great

[akm0404]

Build around the guy who carried Andy Dalton's pads for him. Adds up. 

 

And I like mccarron. 

[apuszczalowski]

1 hour ago, Bobby Hooks said:

Does that mean food and water is overvalued because we need that?

Terrible idea. We have the ammo to get a good one this year. 

 

If Mccarron beats the odds and works out you have even more trade ammo the next year. If not, you have a legit blue chipper sitting behind him.

But is the best guy in this draft a Manning or Mariota/Winston? And do you feel giving up the first 3 rounds of this year's draft is worth Mariota/Winston?

 

What some are saying is that the key to this year's draft is that there are many good QBs available, but no great ones. Is it worth the cost to move up to get just a good QB, which is what they may have actually signed already in McCarron. Theres no guarantee generational franchise cant miss QB this year like Manning or Luck. All of them have faults or concerns.

 

Just because the Bills need a franchise QB, it doesn't mean you have to be stupid and give away a boat load of picks to get someone who might never be that player. Theres more then one way to win, it might be smarter to build the rest of the team up right now while continuing to look for the right QB that won't involve giving up so much.

[Bobby Hooks]

8 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said:

But is the best guy in this draft a Manning or Mariota/Winston? And do you feel giving up the first 3 rounds of this year's draft is worth Mariota/Winston?

 

What some are saying is that the key to this year's draft is that there are many good QBs available, but no great ones. Is it worth the cost to move up to get just a good QB, which is what they may have actually signed already in McCarron. Theres no guarantee generational franchise cant miss QB this year like Manning or Luck. All of them have faults or concerns.

 

Just because the Bills need a franchise QB, it doesn't mean you have to be stupid and give away a boat load of picks to get someone who might never be that player. Theres more then one way to win, it might be smarter to build the rest of the team up right now while continuing to look for the right QB that won't involve giving up so much.

You’ll never have this much ammo again. At least not in a number of years. 

 

It was accrued knowing exacty what is was going to be used on. It would be dumb not to take your shot now while you have it. 

 

Good qb draft, you won’t have this type of ammo again in a long time. 

 

If not now, when? 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Hi everyone I just stole this from another fansite because it helped me understand this draft a bit better than I did.

 

Look at the NFL.com draft grades for this year versus other years. And I know the rankings can be inaccurate but they are some sort of gage.

 

My purpose in posting this is to share what I learned. I learned that they have been calling this a great draft for QBs because there are a bunch of 6's.

So lots to pick from is great. But at least from this chart the only one you would expect a team to trade their whole draft for is Sam Darnold.

And Goff and Wentz you can see, again at least from this chart, seemed to be more of a sure thing going in than most of the guys in the draft class.

 

So when they say next years looks like a lousy year for QB's . I wonder if they mean it is a lousy year like when it had EJ and Geno Smith, neither one of whom is fit to be a starter.

 

Or is it a lousy year because there are not 5 grade 6's? What say you?

 

 

Draft Year	Name	GRADE	Status	POS	HT	WT	School	Where drafted	Team
2018	DARNOLD, SAM*	7.0	--	QB	6'3"	220	USC
2015	Winston, Jameis	6.7	Starter	QB	6'4"	231	Florida St.	Pick 1, Round 1 (1)	Buccaneers
2016	Goff, Jared	6.5	Starter	QB	6'4"	215	California	Pick 1, Round 1 (1)	Rams
2016	Wentz, Carson	6.5	Starter	QB	6'5"	237	North Dakota St.	Pick 2, Round 1 (2)	Eagles
2017	Trubisky, Mitchell	6.3	Starter	QB	6'2"	222	North Carolina	Pick 2, Round 1 (2)	Bears
2015	Mariota, Marcus	6.2	Starter	QB	6'4"	222	Oregon	Pick 2, Round 1 (2)	Titans
2014	Bortles, Blake	6.2	Starter	QB	6'5"	232	Central Florida	Pick 3, Round 1 (3)	Jaguars
2014	Manziel, Johnny	6.1	OUT	QB	6'0"	207	Texas A&M	Pick 22, Round 1 (22)	Browns
2016	Lynch, Paxton	6.1	Backup	QB	6'7"	244	Memphis	Pick 26, Round 1 (26)	Broncos
2014	Bridgewater, Teddy	6.1	Starter	QB	6'2"	214	Louisville	Pick 32, Round 1 (32)	Vikings
2014	Carr, Derek	6.1	Starter	QB	6'2"	214	Fresno St.	Pick 4, Round 2 (36)	Raiders
2018	ROSEN, JOSH*	6.1	--	QB	6'4"	226	UCLA
2018	MAYFIELD, BAKER	6.0	--	QB	6'1"	215	Oklahoma
2018	ALLEN, JOSH	6.0	--	QB	6'5"	233	Wyoming
2017	Watson, Deshaun	5.9	Starter	QB	6'2"	221	Clemson	Pick 12, Round 1 (12)	Texans
2018	JACKSON, LAMAR*	5.9	--	QB	6'3"	200	Louisville
2017	Mahomes, Patrick	5.8	Starter	QB	6'2"	225	Texas Tech	Pick 10, Round 1 (10)	Chiefs
2016	Cook, Connor	5.8	Backup	QB	6'4"	217	Michigan St.	Pick 2, Round 4 (100)	Raiders
2014	Garoppolo, Jimmy	5.8	Starter	QB	6'2"	226	Eastern Illinois	Pick 30, Round 2 (62)	Patriots

 

Nice find Meanie (might consider a link, or giving credit?  If someone used my work on another site, I’d appreciate)

 

I’m assuming the draft grades are off nfl.com, which is Lance Zierlein’s scouting.  He’s quite accurate much of the time, but he’s human, he can be off both high and low in his grades

For example, he does not like Rosen - says his arm strength is questionable, which I think is baloney - and makes several accurate comments which typically reflect passion for the game of football, like playing “hero ball” and other traits resulting from trying too hard to win - right before questioning his passion for the game of football.

 

Anyway, I don’t know that I’d take it as gospel that all this year’s guys besides Darnold grade that low because Zierlein says so or Darnold is far and away the best because Zierlein says so.  What I do believe is that some teams aren’t enchanted by this years crop — thus Cousins, Keenum, etc — and I think it’s quite possible that Beane and Co, as they delve further in, may be reaching the conclusion that there’s no one they feel passionate enough about to spend the kind of draft capital they would have to put out.  They may well decided to go for someone they feel we can draft where we stand.

 

It would really bother me if that’s the case because I would see it as the same ‘OL same ‘OL Bills approach of underinvestment in QB we’ve seen for years.  But I would have to give McBeane the benefit of the doubt until next year if so, it’s not fair to blame them for 16 years shortcomings.

[BadLandsMeanie]

OK but if I get in trouble for advertising another site, or if the author hunts me down and berates me, that is on you and I hope you can live with yourself.

 

Somebody called TJO posted it here 

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/3/15/17128138/past-5-years-of-qb-draft-grade-analytics

 

That chart is his or hers and they did a great job with it because at least for me this info wasn't quick to find on NFL.com. The interpretation was mine.

[RocCityRoller]

3 hours ago, Bobby Hooks said:

Does that mean food and water is overvalued because we need that?

Terrible idea. We have the ammo to get a good one this year. 

 

If Mccarron beats the odds and works out you have even more trade ammo the next year. If not, you have a legit blue chipper sitting behind him.

 

No we don't, and no we didn't. Indy was very clear in stating they did not want to move out of the top ten. Buffalo had no top ten pick. Not enough ammo.

 

The Jet's did make a bold move and and sold the farm. Funny thing is now Cleveland has to draft the QB they want at #1 now. The Giants could still draft Eli's heir apparent, leaving the Jets with the 3rd QB and having not much else this year. Do you want the Bills to trade it all for potentially the #4 QB?

 

If the Giants go QB, and the Jets have to pick a QB now, Cleveland can get Barkley to pair with their new QB of the future. Why would they trade that away?

The Giants can get Eli's heir, or a stud to help Eli make one more push and ring #3. Why would they trade that away?

 

Only if Cleveland pulls a Cleveland and doesn't draft a QB, even after the Jets have telegraphed their move, and the Giants draft Eli help to make one more run does trading for the Cleveland #4 make sense. That is quite a few 'Iffs'.

 

You need a partner who wants what you can offer, and the draft to fall properly.

 

I'm all for having a deal in place with Cleveland for #4 ahead of the draft, but waiting to pull the trigger until the draft unfolds. If not let the draft work itself out and see who falls to #12. If QBS go 1,2,3 a franchise Defender or O-lineman is going to fall to 12 If not a top 4-5 QB will probably fall, and the Bills could still add a DT like Payne or LB like Vander Esch at 22, or the Bills could then take a QB at 12 and move up from 22 to get the defender/ O-lineman they want.

 

Patience grasshopper

 

Nothing would make me happier than Browns taking Darnold, Giants taking Rosen and the Jets left with Allen/Mayfield/Jackson at #3 after blowing their draft capital this year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 19, 2018 by RocCityRoller

[Bobby Hooks]

15 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

No we don't, and no we didn't. Indy was very clear in stating they did not want to move out of the top ten. Buffalo had no top ten pick. Not enough ammo.

 

The Jet's did, make a bold move and and sold the farm. Funny thing is now Cleveland has to draft the QB they want at #1 now. The Giants could still draft Eli's heir apparent, leaving the Jets with the 3rd QB and having not much else this year. Do you want the Bills to trade it all for potentially the #4 QB?

 

If the Giants go QB, and the Jets have to pick a QB now, Cleveland can get Barkley to pair with their new QB of the future. Why would they trade that away?

The Giants can get Eli's heir, or a stud to help Eli make one more push and ring #3. Why would they trade that away?

 

Only if Cleveland pulls a Cleveland and doesn't draft a QB, even after the Jets have telegraphed their move, and the Giants draft Eli help to make one more run does trading for the Cleveland #4 make sense. That is quite a few 'Iffs'.

 

You need a partner who wants what you can offer, and the draft to fall properly.

 

I'm all for having a deal in place with Cleveland for #4 ahead of the draft, but waiting to pull the trigger until the draft unfolds. If not let the draft work itself out and see who falls to #12. If QBS go 1,2,3 a franchise Defender or O-lineman is going to fall to 12 If not a top 4-5 QB will probably fall, and the Bills could still add a DT like Payne or LB like Vander Esch at 22, or the Bills could then take a QB at 12 and move up from 22 to get the defender/ O-lineman they want.

 

Patience grasshopper

 

Nothing would make me happier than Browns taking Darnold, Giants taking Rosen and the Jets left with Allen/Mayfield/Jackson at #3 after blowing their draft capital this year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The whole premise of your post is assuming I thought we could have gotten Indy’s pick. 

 

Since thats not the case, and I myself said they weren’t interested in moving back to 12 I’m really not sure what you’re trying to tell me here. 

 

I agree 4 is where we should make our move if the draft falls the way I hope it will. And we certainly have enough ammo to do it.

 

Nothing would make you happier than Darnold, and Rosen being taken at 1,2, leaving Mayfield to the Jets? 

 

Thats where you lose me. That’s the worst situation possible, grasshopper. 

 

Now if they drafted Allen, I’d do back flips and hope the Bills make that move doing whatever they have to. 

Edited March 19, 2018 by Bobby Hooks

[TPS]

2 hours ago, Ittakestime said:

This is very good. It goes along with what I have been saying all along. If you can't get Darnold, don't bother moving into top 6. See who falls and make the move into 7-11 if you have too jump a team that is trying to move up. 

I like this strategy too, and Pick 56 would more than do the trick to get 7.

[Real McClappy]

Looking at the chart again Peterman was actually a pretty good deal for were we drafted him.

 

Go figure he's right behind AJ

[RocCityRoller]

9 minutes ago, Bobby Hooks said:

The whole premise of your post is assuming I thought we could have gotten Indy’s pick. 

 

Since thats not the case, and I myself said they weren’t interested in moving back to 12 I’m really not sure what you’re trying to tell me here. 

 

I agree 4 is where we should make our move if the draft falls the way I hope it will. And we certainly have enough ammo to do it.

 

Nothing would make you happier than Darnold, and Rosen being taken at 1,2, leaving Mayfield to the Jets? 

 

Thats where you lose me. That’s the worst situation possible. 

 

Fair enough, I didn't see any mention of what pick in your post, and also the scenarios that could play out, or for what QB.

 

I am good with a wait and see approach now, with a few contingencies built in.

 

Another poster made a thoughtful post about the situation. If QBs go 4 in the top 10, and the highest BPA come off the board, then trade back from 12 for a later #1 and #2. Use the late 1st rounder to go after Foles, keep #22 and the third #2. Make moves/picks as warranted. Foles, 1st round LB, and three 2s to address OL, DL, WR would be pretty hot. The Jets move sucks, but Buffalo as a lot of capital to make things happen.

 

 

Edited March 19, 2018 by RocCityRoller

[Bobby Hooks]

1 minute ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

Fair enough, I didn't see any mention of what pick in your post, and also the scenarios that could play out, or for what QB.

 

I am good with a wait and see approach now, with a few contingencies built in.

 

Another poster made a thoughtful post about the situation. If QBs go 4 in the top 10, and the highest BPA come off the board, then trade back from 12 for a later #1 and #2. Use the late 1st rounder to go after Foles, keep #22 and the third #2. Make moves picks as warranted. Foles, 1st round LB, and three 2s to address OL, DL, WR would be pretty hot. The Jets move sucks, but Buffalo as a lot of capital to make things happen.

 

 

Yeah, I’m open to something along those lines. If you proposed that to me before the Jets trade I would have tried to bite you. 

 

I was all all hyped on moving ahead of everyone and nabbing our guy. Media was helping the cause, which is probably why the Jets felt the need to move so fast. 

 

The trade was a bitter pill. No way around it. All we can really do now is wait and hopefully have some contingencies in place like you said. 

 

 

 

 

[KCNC]

9 hours ago, B Fan in LA said:

 

Count me in with the crowd that does not want to trade up any further.

I'd be happy with Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph

 

 

Same here.

[Ittakestime]

34 minutes ago, TPS said:

I like this strategy too, and Pick 56 would more than do the trick to get 7.

 

May just need to get above Miami which would take the 65th pick. Would be huge at filling needs. 

[TPS]

15 minutes ago, Ittakestime said:

 

May just need to get above Miami which would take the 65th pick. Would be huge at filling needs. 

But you don't want to let someone else jump to 7 first. 

[RocCityRoller]

1 hour ago, Bobby Hooks said:

Yeah, I’m open to something along those lines. If you proposed that to me before the Jets trade I would have tried to bite you. 

 

I was all all hyped on moving ahead of everyone and nabbing our guy. Media was helping the cause, which is probably why the Jets felt the need to move so fast. 

 

The trade was a bitter pill. No way around it. All we can really do now is wait and hopefully have some contingencies in place like you said. 

 

just looking at the facts now. It's still a good situation. Did a recent mock on difficult setting w/o trades and ended up with:

12: R1P12

EDGE HAROLD LANDRY

BOSTON COLLEGE

22: R1P22

LB RASHAAN EVANS

ALABAMA

53: R2P21

DL DARON PAYNE

ALABAMA

56: R2P24

C JAMES DANIELS

IOWA

65: R3P1

QB MIKE WHITE

WESTERN KENTUCKY

96: R3P32

WR D.J. CHARK

LSU

121: R4P21

OT GERON CHRISTIAN

LOUISVILLE

166: R5P29

RB KALEN BALLAGE

ARIZONA STATE

187: R6P13

CB BRANDON FACYSON

VIRGINIA TECH

 

Got the top Edge rusher (6.1 grade), top 3 LB, top 3 DL, top C, best QB prospect after Rudolph, #4 WR with 4.3 speed and 6'3" size, a swing tackle, a 6'1 227 back with 4.46 speed (KR/PR and 3rd option at RB), and a 6'2 cb with 4.53 speed

 

Build the team, with 100 million next year you can buy a QB if McCarron, White, Peterman can't do it

Edited March 19, 2018 by RocCityRoller

[Ol Dirty B]

5 hours ago, Sky Diver said:

Take a flier on the best 2nd tier QB and build around McCarron.

 

That's a horrible idea, and I'm going to chalk it up to your avy as to why you...

 

a} Like McCarron

b) Don't know what good QB play looks like, because it's not coming from the Bills or Alabama

c) Undervalue QB play because your college team is in contention to win it every year with mediocre to below average QB play because they field great players on both sides of the ball all around that guy. We've done that here, no thanks. I want who they think is the best QB prospect. Not some other version of half assing it at the position. 

Edited March 19, 2018 by Ol Dirty B

[BigBuff423]

21 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Hi everyone I just stole this from another fansite because it helped me understand this draft a bit better than I did.

 

Look at the NFL.com draft grades for this year versus other years. And I know the rankings can be inaccurate but they are some sort of gage.

 

My purpose in posting this is to share what I learned. I learned that they have been calling this a great draft for QBs because there are a bunch of 6's.

So lots to pick from is great. But at least from this chart the only one you would expect a team to trade their whole draft for is Sam Darnold.

And Goff and Wentz you can see, again at least from this chart, seemed to be more of a sure thing going in than most of the guys in the draft class.

 

So when they say next years looks like a lousy year for QB's . I wonder if they mean it is a lousy year like when it had EJ and Geno Smith, neither one of whom is fit to be a starter.

 

Or is it a lousy year because there are not 5 grade 6's? What say you?

 

 

Draft Year	Name	GRADE	Status	POS	HT	WT	School	Where drafted	Team
2018	DARNOLD, SAM*	7.0	--	QB	6'3"	220	USC
2015	Winston, Jameis	6.7	Starter	QB	6'4"	231	Florida St.	Pick 1, Round 1 (1)	Buccaneers
2016	Goff, Jared	6.5	Starter	QB	6'4"	215	California	Pick 1, Round 1 (1)	Rams
2016	Wentz, Carson	6.5	Starter	QB	6'5"	237	North Dakota St.	Pick 2, Round 1 (2)	Eagles
2017	Trubisky, Mitchell	6.3	Starter	QB	6'2"	222	North Carolina	Pick 2, Round 1 (2)	Bears
2015	Mariota, Marcus	6.2	Starter	QB	6'4"	222	Oregon	Pick 2, Round 1 (2)	Titans
2014	Bortles, Blake	6.2	Starter	QB	6'5"	232	Central Florida	Pick 3, Round 1 (3)	Jaguars
2014	Manziel, Johnny	6.1	OUT	QB	6'0"	207	Texas A&M	Pick 22, Round 1 (22)	Browns
2016	Lynch, Paxton	6.1	Backup	QB	6'7"	244	Memphis	Pick 26, Round 1 (26)	Broncos
2014	Bridgewater, Teddy	6.1	Starter	QB	6'2"	214	Louisville	Pick 32, Round 1 (32)	Vikings
2014	Carr, Derek	6.1	Starter	QB	6'2"	214	Fresno St.	Pick 4, Round 2 (36)	Raiders
2018	ROSEN, JOSH*	6.1	--	QB	6'4"	226	UCLA
2018	MAYFIELD, BAKER	6.0	--	QB	6'1"	215	Oklahoma
2018	ALLEN, JOSH	6.0	--	QB	6'5"	233	Wyoming
2017	Watson, Deshaun	5.9	Starter	QB	6'2"	221	Clemson	Pick 12, Round 1 (12)	Texans
2018	JACKSON, LAMAR*	5.9	--	QB	6'3"	200	Louisville
2017	Mahomes, Patrick	5.8	Starter	QB	6'2"	225	Texas Tech	Pick 10, Round 1 (10)	Chiefs
2016	Cook, Connor	5.8	Backup	QB	6'4"	217	Michigan St.	Pick 2, Round 4 (100)	Raiders
2014	Garoppolo, Jimmy	5.8	Starter	QB	6'2"	226	Eastern Illinois	Pick 30, Round 2 (62)	Patriots
2017	Kizer, DeShone	5.7	Backup	QB	6'4"	233	Notre Dame	Pick 20, Round 2 (52)	Browns
2014	McCarron, AJ	5.7	Backup	QB	6'3"	220	Alabama	Pick 24, Round 5 (164)	Bengals
2017	Peterman, Nathan	5.7	Backup	QB	6'2"	226	Pittsburgh	Pick 28, Round 5 (171)	Bills
2018	RUDOLPH, MASON	5.6	--	QB	6'5"	235	Oklahoma St.
2016	Hackenberg, Christian	5.5	Backup	QB	6'4"	223	Penn St.	Pick 20, Round 2 (51)	Jets
2016	Brissett, Jacoby	5.5	Backup	QB	6'4"	231	N.C. State	Pick 29, Round 3 (91)	Patriots
2016	Prescott, Dak	5.4	Starter	QB	6'2"	226	Mississippi St.	Pick 37, Round 4 (135)	Cowboys
2015	Petty, Bryce	5.4	Backup	QB	6'3"	230	Baylor	Pick 4, Round 4 (103)	Jets
2015	Grayson, Garrett	5.3	Backup	QB	6'2"	213	Colorado St.	Pick 11, Round 3 (75)	Saints
2015	Hundley, Brett	5.3	Backup	QB	6'3"	226	UCLA	Pick 11, Round 5 (147)	Packer

 

 

 

 

Thank you for this...it is important to keep some perspective as we, as fans, can get all worked-up to go get "our guy...no matter the cost!". But the NFL is a league driven by numbers, performance, and calculated risks....and to that end, I really like how Beane seems to approach the situation. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

21 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Exactly this.  I don't like any of the QBs in this draft enough to want the Bills to move up from 12 for him for what it will now cost to do it.

And that is what I agree with. While I wouldn't mind a slight jump (6-10) if one of the "top" guys slips I'd say any of them have a chance to both succeed or fail at the NFL level. No sense moving a ton of picks in a draft that has good players at positions we need. If that means AJ McCarron is the starter next year...so be it. It's still an improvement over Taylor IMO.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

If Cleveland takes a QB I see the Giants getting their card in for Barkley faster than any team ever has. Judging by the pro scouts I'm guessing Darnold will be off the board at 1 or 2 depending on what Cleveland does. I have no idea who the Jets might be targeting at QB.

5 minutes ago, No Place To Hyde said:

And that is what I agree with. While I wouldn't mind a slight jump (6-10) if one of the "top" guys slips I'd say any of them have a chance to both succeed or fail at the NFL level. No sense moving a ton of picks in a draft that has good players at positions we need. If that means AJ McCarron is the starter next year...so be it. It's still an improvement over Taylor IMO.

I agree, if a guy they like slips to 6 - 10 range then I would trade a few picks to get him.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

If you don't think this year is a great QB class there will never be a class where you're intrigued. Wish we could fast forward to Stidham/Eason/Lock next year and see how everyone regrets not taking a QB this year.