It's a Good Year For QB's Because There Are a Lot, Not Because They Are Great

[BadLandsMeanie]

Hi everyone I just stole this from another fansite because it helped me understand this draft a bit better than I did.

 

Look at the NFL.com draft grades for this year versus other years. And I know the rankings can be inaccurate but they are some sort of gage.

 

My purpose in posting this is to share what I learned. I learned that they have been calling this a great draft for QBs because there are a bunch of 6's.

So lots to pick from is great. But at least from this chart the only one you would expect a team to trade their whole draft for is Sam Darnold.

And Goff and Wentz you can see, again at least from this chart, seemed to be more of a sure thing going in than most of the guys in the draft class.

 

So when they say next years looks like a lousy year for QB's . I wonder if they mean it is a lousy year like when it had EJ and Geno Smith, neither one of whom is fit to be a starter.

 

Or is it a lousy year because there are not 5 grade 6's? What say you?

 

 

Draft Year	Name	GRADE	Status	POS	HT	WT	School	Where drafted	Team
2018	DARNOLD, SAM*	7.0	--	QB	6'3"	220	USC
2015	Winston, Jameis	6.7	Starter	QB	6'4"	231	Florida St.	Pick 1, Round 1 (1)	Buccaneers
2016	Goff, Jared	6.5	Starter	QB	6'4"	215	California	Pick 1, Round 1 (1)	Rams
2016	Wentz, Carson	6.5	Starter	QB	6'5"	237	North Dakota St.	Pick 2, Round 1 (2)	Eagles
2017	Trubisky, Mitchell	6.3	Starter	QB	6'2"	222	North Carolina	Pick 2, Round 1 (2)	Bears
2015	Mariota, Marcus	6.2	Starter	QB	6'4"	222	Oregon	Pick 2, Round 1 (2)	Titans
2014	Bortles, Blake	6.2	Starter	QB	6'5"	232	Central Florida	Pick 3, Round 1 (3)	Jaguars
2014	Manziel, Johnny	6.1	OUT	QB	6'0"	207	Texas A&M	Pick 22, Round 1 (22)	Browns
2016	Lynch, Paxton	6.1	Backup	QB	6'7"	244	Memphis	Pick 26, Round 1 (26)	Broncos
2014	Bridgewater, Teddy	6.1	Starter	QB	6'2"	214	Louisville	Pick 32, Round 1 (32)	Vikings
2014	Carr, Derek	6.1	Starter	QB	6'2"	214	Fresno St.	Pick 4, Round 2 (36)	Raiders
2018	ROSEN, JOSH*	6.1	--	QB	6'4"	226	UCLA
2018	MAYFIELD, BAKER	6.0	--	QB	6'1"	215	Oklahoma
2018	ALLEN, JOSH	6.0	--	QB	6'5"	233	Wyoming
2017	Watson, Deshaun	5.9	Starter	QB	6'2"	221	Clemson	Pick 12, Round 1 (12)	Texans
2018	JACKSON, LAMAR*	5.9	--	QB	6'3"	200	Louisville
2017	Mahomes, Patrick	5.8	Starter	QB	6'2"	225	Texas Tech	Pick 10, Round 1 (10)	Chiefs
2016	Cook, Connor	5.8	Backup	QB	6'4"	217	Michigan St.	Pick 2, Round 4 (100)	Raiders
2014	Garoppolo, Jimmy	5.8	Starter	QB	6'2"	226	Eastern Illinois	Pick 30, Round 2 (62)	Patriots
2017	Kizer, DeShone	5.7	Backup	QB	6'4"	233	Notre Dame	Pick 20, Round 2 (52)	Browns
2014	McCarron, AJ	5.7	Backup	QB	6'3"	220	Alabama	Pick 24, Round 5 (164)	Bengals
2017	Peterman, Nathan	5.7	Backup	QB	6'2"	226	Pittsburgh	Pick 28, Round 5 (171)	Bills
2018	RUDOLPH, MASON	5.6	--	QB	6'5"	235	Oklahoma St.
2016	Hackenberg, Christian	5.5	Backup	QB	6'4"	223	Penn St.	Pick 20, Round 2 (51)	Jets
2016	Brissett, Jacoby	5.5	Backup	QB	6'4"	231	N.C. State	Pick 29, Round 3 (91)	Patriots
2016	Prescott, Dak	5.4	Starter	QB	6'2"	226	Mississippi St.	Pick 37, Round 4 (135)	Cowboys
2015	Petty, Bryce	5.4	Backup	QB	6'3"	230	Baylor	Pick 4, Round 4 (103)	Jets
2015	Grayson, Garrett	5.3	Backup	QB	6'2"	213	Colorado St.	Pick 11, Round 3 (75)	Saints
2015	Hundley, Brett	5.3	Backup	QB	6'3"	226	UCLA	Pick 11, Round 5 (147)	Packer

 

 

 

[Fetou]

I'm inclined to agree that there isnt a consensus pick that you are hearing is better than Goff/Wentz. Meanwhile the cost of moving up is far above what it was for Wentz due to the Jets trade. It's a terrible year to be looking to move into the top 5.

[zonabb]

Been on the supply and demand argument forever about QBs. The very limited supply of quality QBs dictates that demand is always high. That demand then gets operationalized by over-drafting low quality QBs. If anyone thinks there are 5 legit starting, playoffs caliber QBs in this draft, you're insane. What amazes me, is the irrational thinking that goes into drafting questionable QBs in round 1 all the time by GMs. It's demanding owners, job security (damned if you, damned if you don't), and fan bases like this one that convince GMs they have to draft one. 

 

I'll say there's one guy, Darnold, every team is probably comfortable with because he has a good chance to succeed. 

 

It's the Peter Principle.... people get promoted, and this case drafted, based on how well they perform in their current job (college QB), which in no way predicts how well they'll do in the new one. Every promotion is a filter and everyone, all of us, reach our level of incompetence. In this draft, many of these QBs will once again prove the Peter Principle.

[SoTier]

As far as I can tell, it's quantity over quality when it comes to the draft.  That's for any position.  If there's only 1 or 2 QBs or WRs or DTs who are graded as first rounders, then all the draft mavens label it a "lousy" draft for that position even if those 1 or 2 guys are the best prospects at their positions in the last decade.  If there's 4 or 5 QBs given first round grades, it's a "great" draft for QBs even if none of them are all that great individually. 

 

[Jay_Fixit]

Oh I know.

 

People here are overvaluing the QB’s this year because the Bills need one.

 

[Buddo]

The problem with that idea, is in knowing who is doing the evaluations. The concept being both correct and interesting, yet without knowing where anyone is getting the grades from, it's pretty difficult to make the sort of conclusions you are implying. While I realize you are saying that the grades are coming from NFL.com, my interest is as much in who is doing /giving those grades, as anything else.

Just as an example, there's a lot of places where Rosen would be the top QB, and not Darnold, yet the grade given for Darnold, is way ahead of Rosen.

Iirc, Mayock has said that although he had 1st round grades on a bunch of the guys this year, he had none of them rated as highly as he rated Wentz, although that was early in his evaluation process.

 

To a point, I think the assumption that it is a good year for QBs is correct, as I think there are more guys being given a genuine 1st round grade, as opposed to being bumped up to 1st round 'status' through need. I would also say that apparently, and without looking at it in any depth, that the general feeling on the QB class in 2019, is that it is EJ and Geno bad, sadly.

 

So if you want to grab a QB, you have way better chances of them being a success this year, than next.

[LeGOATski]

That chart clearly shows this is a great year for QBs....regardless if it's right or wrong.

[SoTier]

4 minutes ago, zonabb said:

Been on the supply and demand argument forever about QBs. The very limited supply of quality QBs dictates that demand is always high. That demand then gets operationalized by over-drafting low quality QBs. If anyone thinks there are 5 legit starting, playoffs caliber QBs in this draft, you're insane. What amazes me, is the irrational thinking that goes into drafting questionable QBs in round 1 all the time by GMs. It's demanding owners, job security (damned if you, damned if you don't), and fan bases like this one that convince GMs they have to draft one. 

 

I'll say there's one guy, Darnold, every team is probably comfortable with because he has a good chance to succeed. 

 

It's the Peter Principle.... people get promoted, and this case drafted, based on how well they perform in their current job (college QB), which in no way predicts how well they'll do in the new one. Every promotion is a filter and everyone, all of us, reach our level of incompetence. In this draft, many of these QBs will once again prove the Peter Principle.

 

Exactly this.  I don't like any of the QBs in this draft enough to want the Bills to move up from 12 for him for what it will now cost to do it.

[Hebert19]

Agree totally.  Save all 6 picks on first 3 and take best an available at 12 or 22.  It's really a no brainer to me. 

[B Fan in LA]

 

Count me in with the crowd that does not want to trade up any further.

I'd be happy with Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph

 

[PIZ]

3 minutes ago, B Fan in LA said:

 

Count me in with the crowd that does not want to trade up any further.

I'd be happy with Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph

 

 

I like this idea as well.  Love to keep all those picks.

[apuszczalowski]

Put it this way, would everyone be so comfortable and willing to give up both 1sts, 2nds, and 3rds in order to get Winston, Marriota, Trubisky, or Bortles?

Theres as good of a chance that the top guys this year end up being one of those guys and not the next Manning, Manning, Rothlesburger, or Brees.....

Giving away all those picks could put the Bills in the same position as the chargers having Rivers and nothing else, leading to some one and done playoff appearances and nothing more, even though having a Franchise QB means long term franchise success......

[PromoTheRobot]

You know what? Between February and April there is a bumper crop of franchise QBs every year.

[BillsFan4]

This is how I feel as well.

 

The strength of this QB draft class is in its depth. There are at least 4-5, and maybe up to 6, potential 1st round QBs this year. 

 

I dont know know if I see the point in trading the farm for the 4th QB off the board, or even the 3rd... is the 3rd or 4th QB off the board this year 3 or 4 starting caliber players better than the 4th or 5th QB off the board (which is what it might cost to trade up - 3 or 4 prime picks)? 

 

 

It really only makes sense to me if you are trading to pick #2 and guaranteeing yourself one of the top 2 QBs. Even then it's a crap shoot. 

 

I guess it all all depends on how the Bills have these QBs rated. If there is a huge gap between their #1 or #2 QB and their #3/4 QB, then yeah maybe it makes sense to sell the farm for #2 overall. If the gap between their #2 and #3/4/5 QB is relatively small, it makes more sense to take their #4 QB and surround him with 3,4,5 potentially very good draft prospects. 

[GunnerBill]

So I have been grading college players since 2014. My top 10 QB grades in order since then are as below:

 

1. Marcus Mariota

2. Jameis Winston

3. Josh Rosen

4. Deshuan Watson

5. Carson Wentz

6. Jared Goff

7. Sam Darnold

8. Baker Mayfield

9. Blake Bortles

10. Mitch Trubisky

 

3 of my top 10 are in this draft. 

[Real McClappy]

TY OP,

Still trying to figure out why Darnold is rated so high. Don't get me wrong I like him and all. I just can't get why he grades out better than Baker or Rosen.

Edited March 18, 2018 by Real McCoy

[BadLandsMeanie]

31 minutes ago, Real McCoy said:

TY OP,

Still trying to figure out why Darnold is rated so high. Don't get me wrong I like him and all. I just can't get why he grades out better than Baker or Rosen.

I don't get it either.

 

I haven't seen the games. But what I read is that he has a goofy throwing motion. And my friend who I defer to on college QB ratings thinks he is another USC bust in the making.

 

But he must have something going for him otherwise they wouldn't top out his grade like that. Maybe it is because he is so young to be as good as he is or something?

 

 

39 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

So I have been grading college players since 2014. My top 10 QB grades in order since then are as below:

 

1. Marcus Mariota

2. Jameis Winston

3. Josh Rosen

4. Deshuan Watson

5. Carson Wentz

6. Jared Goff

7. Sam Darnold

8. Baker Mayfield

9. Blake Bortles

10. Mitch Trubisky

 

3 of my top 10 are in this draft. 

Oh. Well then I hope you get one of your guys. I can see why you would be antsy if that is how you see things.

[Sky Diver]

Take a flier on the best 2nd tier QB and build around McCarron.

[Bobby Hooks]

8 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Oh I know.

 

People here are overvaluing the QB’s this year because the Bills need one.

 

Does that mean food and water is overvalued because we need that?

11 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

Take a flier on the best 2nd tier QB and build around McCarron.

Terrible idea. We have the ammo to get a good one this year. 

 

If Mccarron beats the odds and works out you have even more trade ammo the next year. If not, you have a legit blue chipper sitting behind him.

Edited March 18, 2018 by Bobby Hooks

[Ittakestime]

This is very good. It goes along with what I have been saying all along. If you can't get Darnold, don't bother moving into top 6. See who falls and make the move into 7-11 if you have too jump a team that is trying to move up.