Over 29 years of fanhood Posted March 18, 2018 Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, xRUSHx said: I don't see why. He is a big pocket QB. Grabbing at 12 is a little reach considering how many say later 1st round 2nd but with QB a little reach is at least something. Waiting around to get what is left at 22 could be nothing at all considering how teams want QBs and how the Bills always wait too long for one and always miss out trying for prime value. IMO they have to reach or nothing but a late round Peterman once again. They will pick him at 12 if they think he’s the right guy. I’m good with it.
xRUSHx Posted March 18, 2018 Posted March 18, 2018 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Bangarang said: Rudolph at 12 is a desperate reach. Go check out Rudolph man he is by no means a desperate reach, considering other drafts IMO he is a steal at 12. Edited March 18, 2018 by xRUSHx 1 1
Mr. WEO Posted March 18, 2018 Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: Worst team had the same damn qb as the first man. Foles won the ring and every playoff game it took to get there. as I said elsewhere these two teams have made the collective world lose their minds on this top 5 QB thing. Worst year ever to trade up So you're saying that Wentz was a wasted pick in the top 5 because they won a SB without him? Also, you data showed that the top 5 pick group was in the SB 24% of the time--more than any group. And the round 4-7 QBs rarely played in the SB.
Bangarang Posted March 18, 2018 Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, xRUSHx said: Go check out Rudolph man he is by no means a reach, considering other drafts IMO he is a steal at 12. Ive checked him out. He’d be a horrendous reach at 12.
terrytate Posted March 18, 2018 Posted March 18, 2018 24 minutes ago, RPbillsfan said: The majority of posters seem to want to employ a strategy of trading most of our picks for the right to draft "a franchise QB". The Jets just made a move that almost ensures additional years of losing football with a young QB playing short handed with a weak roster and all the expectations in the world. No offensive weapons to use, poor offensive line, holes all over the front 7 on defense. The Bills are now in a position to do the opposite, draft to fill the roster with young cost-controlled players to add to the talent base they have. Six picks in the first 96. Chance to get QB, LB, CB, DT, OL and WR. Why would you choose the pathway the Jets are taking which pretty much ensures competition with the Dolphins for last place in the AFC East. Love to read your thoughts on this. I am going to let you in on a little secret. I found a way to improve the offensive line, the wr's, the te, the rb's, and The DEFENSE. Guess how. Getting a stud qb, that is how. 1
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted March 18, 2018 Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloBill said: Both teams turned around quickly. And as for Holmes playing since early December, the question really becomes is the player, system or coaching more important? The Eagles situation (along with the Vikings) suggest that players are often too much overemphasized and systems and coaches are lacking. Another excellent point about finds no the right guy versus drafting the top rated guy. I belive the front office reboot had everything to do with both teams success.
N.Y. Orangeman Posted March 18, 2018 Posted March 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: So based on the likely statistical significance of the populations and likely confinence intervals I’m not interested in doing the math but it’s not far, you are nearly just as likely to to start a late round qb in the Super Bowl as a top 5 guy. 3 Wow...that is a fascinating spin. 2
CuddyDark Posted March 18, 2018 Posted March 18, 2018 I still believe 2 of the top 4 QBs will be available outside the top ten because there are nine elite none QB players and only 2 teams who must draft QBs. Unless a team trades in front of us I would stay put until the draft. If they want Allen he'll probably make 12.
formerlyofCtown Posted March 18, 2018 Posted March 18, 2018 If we don't get the right guy this year and fill our roster. We have the option to trade our entire draft to move up if we use these picks wisely. If we don't get our guy we need to aquire a few more picks for next year.
What a Tuel Posted March 18, 2018 Posted March 18, 2018 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: So based on the likely statistical significance of the populations and likely confinence intervals I’m not interested in doing the math but it’s not far, you are nearly just as likely to to start a late round qb in the Super Bowl as a top 5 guy. No, because the haystack for later round QBs is much larger than the haystack of 1st rounders. Higher chance to hit. Edited March 18, 2018 by What a Tuel
Wayne Arnold Posted March 18, 2018 Posted March 18, 2018 Watch Mike White be the best quarterback to come out of this draft. That would be funny. Especially if we stay put at 12 and 22 and keep our extra 2nd and 3rd. 1
terrytate Posted March 18, 2018 Posted March 18, 2018 19 minutes ago, N.Y. Orangeman said: This really isn't that difficult... I would love to combine all the draft threads and trade threads and just put an end to them with this post. 1
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted March 18, 2018 Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said: So you're saying that Wentz was a wasted pick in the top 5 because they won a SB without him? Also, you data showed that the top 5 pick group was in the SB 24% of the time--more than any group. And the round 4-7 QBs rarely played in the SB. Meant late first round v top 5. 24 v 17 on samples of just over 30. Confidence intervals would overlap at that sample size, meaning statistically equivalent. My read on the eagles is chip is a bad nfl coach who built a talented ROSTER. Good coaches took advantage of the set up to the fullest. But Foles won the ring, not Wentz.
Domdab99 Posted March 18, 2018 Posted March 18, 2018 13 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: So based on the likely statistical significance of the populations and likely confinence intervals I’m not interested in doing the math but it’s not far, you are nearly just as likely to to start a late round qb in the Super Bowl as a top 5 guy. You're really bad at interpreting data 11 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: Worst team had the same damn qb as the first man. Foles won the ring and every playoff game it took to get there. as I said elsewhere these two teams have made the collective world lose their minds on this top 5 QB thing. Worst year ever to trade up Really? The worst year? Wort than last year? Next year? 9 minutes ago, xRUSHx said: Go check out Rudolph man he is by no means a desperate reach, considering other drafts IMO he is a steal at 12. Are you Mason' Rudolph's hype man? He's a 3rd rounder at best. 2
xRUSHx Posted March 18, 2018 Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, CuddyDark said: I still believe 2 of the top 4 QBs will be available outside the top ten because there are nine elite none QB players and only 2 teams who must draft QBs. Unless a team trades in front of us I would stay put until the draft. If they want Allen he'll probably make 12. You can't teach accuracy, I think Allen is another JP mistake, his agent has been working hard to sell him early but IMO he will need to sit at least a year or 2 and could still end up a Cutler throw away in being a good QB in the NFL.
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted March 18, 2018 Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, What a Tuel said: No, because the haystack for later round QBs is much larger than the haystack of 1st rounders. Higher chance to hit. Math says otherwise. But again my point here is the cost to move into the top five is tremendous. Maybe the best analysis is to overlay the odds of starting a Super Bowl qb (which I consider the goal) for all the pick you have to surrender to increase your probability to 24%?
BigBuff423 Posted March 18, 2018 Posted March 18, 2018 To me, what makes this Draft class so unique is that there truly could be 5 or 6 amazing QBs who all bring their individual ability to lead a franchise. To make this point, some of the best QBs in the NFL do it all very differently: 1. Darnold - Rivers 2. Rosen - Eli 3. Mayfield - Brees 4. Rudolph - Tannehill 5. Jackson - a better version of Vick 6. Allen - Big Ben (if accuracy can improve) 7. Mike White - Cousins And that’s not accounting for guys like Luke Falk or Kyle Lauletta. Remember guys like Jimmy G, Cousins, Russ Wilson, Derek Carr were all taken in 2nd Round or later. What this means to me is that this is not Winston / Mariotta where you basically have 2 guys, head and shoulders above the rest. You’ve got a great QB class that is wide and deep....which IMO means you use that to your advantage.
CuddyDark Posted March 18, 2018 Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, xRUSHx said: You can't teach accuracy, I think Allen is another JP mistake, his agent has been working hard to sell him early but IMO he will need to sit at least a year or 2 and could still end up a Cutler throw away in being a good QB in the NFL. Aside from Mayfield and Jackson every QB in this draft should probably sit a year or 2.
terrytate Posted March 18, 2018 Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: Math says otherwise. But again my point here is the cost to move into the top five is tremendous. Maybe the best analysis is to overlay the odds of starting a Super Bowl qb (which I consider the goal) for all the pick you have to surrender to increase your probability to 24%? Teams that have traded picks to get their qb in the top 5. 1. Wentz. worked out 2. Goff worked out 3. Eli worked out If all those teams can give up picks to get a qb and be competitive so can we.
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted March 18, 2018 Posted March 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, Domdab99 said: You're really bad at interpreting data Please educate me: top versus rest of first round super bowl start %.... what is the Confidence interval on the data set? Di you understand the interaction between sample size? Ill sit sit back and await my recalibration.
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