[Vague Title]You don't know squat

[oldmanfan]

9 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

I don't agree with OP. There are fans here that

spend the better part of their day studying players and situations that involve the Bills,

lots of em. Moving to 3 would not have been "meaningless" that's a silly thing to say.

 

Your point is lost on me, I think you are being trolled by posters calling for Beane's head so they can generate reactions such as this. 

 

The only advantage modern day scouts and GMs have over fans is being able to meet these guys and interview them face to face. Everything else is out there if you look deep enough. 

I appreciate your comments.  There may be a few people here that played or coached at say a collegiate level.  I would value such input.  But the vast majority are armchair wannabe experts, would you not agree?

 

The interview process is a major advantage the professionals have.  And they simply have a ton more data, film or otherwise, plus a lot more experience that all do here.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Anyone arguing their beliefs are more than speculation are ridiculous. 

 

That being said, everyone is here because we love the bills, like discussing them and speculation is the entertainment this time of year. 

 

I'm sure there are many knowledgeable posters on the board. In fact, many have proven their worth. But it is clear we are really all just guessing because you are right, that we don't know the inside of any organization. 

 

But don't be a grump and piss on everyone's parade. 

Edited March 18, 2018 by EmotionallyUnstable

[CommonCents]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, as I said, a few nuts and fruitcakes will take nearly any position. I'm sure there are a few people. 

 

But no, getting to 3 absolutely would not have been meaningless. Same as the Jets just put us in an extremely difficult position, we'd have done the same if we'd been the ones moving up.

 

Say the Browns go Darnold and the Giants Rosen or Mayfield. Would it have been useless to move to #3 early if as you suggest they think those are the three guys they want? Now say the Jets pick the third of those three. Still useless?

 

This hurt us. Now it could still turn out OK, if say the Bills want Rosen or Mayfield and the Giants go RB and the Jets pick Allen. But if that's how it's going, the Giants are likely to get a major offer. What do we do if the Browns go Darnold and we call the Giants and they say, "Yeah, Arizona just offered us their next three 1sts and a 2nd this year. Can you beat that?" Or if they say, "Listen, the Jets just offered us the #3 pick so we can get the guy we want anyway, as well as their 1st next year. You'll have to pretty much do a Pacman Jones at a strip club deal here and make it rain to beat that offer. Whatcha got?"

 

This hurts. It restricts our options and puts the Giants in the catbird seat, probably making it even more expensive to get there if that's where we need to go.

Well said.

 

It's also worth mentioning that each QB in this draft plays the position entirely different than the others. That makes it very hard for me to believe that they don't have a strong preference on one of them.

[Tyrod's friend]

1 minute ago, Commonsense said:

Would it be equally as arrogant to say any machine and multi-million dollar set up that leads you to draft Reggie Raglands over the Deion Jones of the world needs to be scrapped!

 

Look at the hits and misses of GMs then look and listen to what fans who know football say. I will bet top dollar the hits/misses aren't far off from eachother.

 

Analytics lol

On any individual roll of the dice you can be right or wrong, but the complete odds are taken by the long view. Point of fact, NFL GMs are better now than they ever were. Beyond that, they are using valuation analytics, algorithms and probabilities that you couldn't fathom. 

And even still, looking back, the NFL gets it right. The most value is provided in order by the 1st, then 2nd and then 3rd round.

You could get one right, sure. Welcome to the world squirrel.

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, as I said, a few nuts and fruitcakes will take nearly any position. I'm sure there are a few people. 

 

But no, getting to 3 absolutely would not have been meaningless. Same as the Jets just put us in an extremely difficult position, we'd have done the same if we'd been the ones moving up.

 

Say the Browns go Darnold and the Giants Rosen or Mayfield. Would it have been useless to move to #3 early if as you suggest they think those are the three guys they want? Now say the Jets pick the third of those three. Still useless?

 

This hurt us. Now it could still turn out OK, if say the Bills want Rosen or Mayfield and the Giants go RB and the Jets pick Allen. But if that's how it's going, the Giants are likely to get a major offer. What do we do if the Browns go Darnold and we call the Giants and they say, "Yeah, Arizona just offered us their next three 1sts and a 2nd this year. Can you beat that?" Or if they say, "Listen, the Jets just offered us the #3 pick so we can get the guy we want anyway, as well as their 1st next year. You'll have to pretty much do a Pacman Jones at a strip club deal here and make it rain to beat that offer. Whatcha got?"

 

This hurts. It restricts our options and puts the Giants in the catbird seat, probably making it even more expensive to get there if that's where we need to go.

Good points.  To me it still comes down to whether the see a guy as THE guy.  If so they'll move above the Jets and pay the price.  The price of 2 would be more than 3 but guarantees getting your guy.  The Jets have no such guarantee unless they're happy with 3 guys.

4 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Anyone arguing their beliefs are more than speculation are ridiculous. 

 

That being said, everyone is here because we love the bills, like discussing them and speculation is the entertainment this time of year. 

 

I'm sure there are many knowledgeable posters on the board. In fact, many have proven their worth. But it is clear we are really all just guessing because you are right, that we don't know the inside of any organization. 

 

But don't be a grump and piss on everyone's parade. 

It's just that, as you say in your first sentence, it is ridiculous

[4merper4mer]

1 hour ago, terrytate said:

 

Most elite qb's throw for 4,000 yards.  There were 8 last year and  there would have been more had wentz, keenum and a few others started all year.  

 

My definition of a franchise qb is the definition of what has been the standard for the past 10 years.  60 percent completion percentage, 2.5 int percentage, Under 10 fumbles,  Can lead 2 minute game winning drives, and have playoff success.  Those type of guys win you super bowls, enough with the steady eddies. 

Which QB in this year's draft meets that definition?

[atlbillsfan1975]

Man o man, this has been the most fun offseason in years. I have used the line ‘this is the Bills fan favorite time of the year ‘ countless times. The thing is I really believe we have the rights guys for the job. They will make some mistakes , we all do. They will get things right. I know how much different I feel having Beane and McDermott as opposed to Nix and Gailey. 

Either way this team is headed in a direction I can understand and get behind.

 

[CommonCents]

10 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

On any individual roll of the dice you can be right or wrong, but the complete odds are taken by the long view. Point of fact, NFL GMs are better now than they ever were. Beyond that, they are using valuation analytics, algorithms and probabilities that you couldn't fathom. 

And even still, looking back, the NFL gets it right. The most value is provided in order by the 1st, then 2nd and then 3rd round.

You could get one right, sure. Welcome to the world squirrel.

I'm not a guy that studies each player coming out and handing out grades so save the welcoming for someone that deserves it. Guys here and all over the Internet spend countless hours forming their own grades and you won't have a hard time finding an amatuer that competes with the NFL GMs for hits/misses.

 

That's all that matters is picking the right guy, I don't care how you came to the conclusion or if you pressed the calculate button on a million different formulas. Discounting anyone's opinions just because they aren't working for an NFL team is sloppy. 

 

The NFL gets it right, you're a Bills fan right? The best QB in the division at any point in Tom Brady's career was Chad freaking Pennington, save me the all knowing GM baloney.

 

Ineptitude comes to mind but even that seems to simple of a word when trying to describe what a bumbling bag of dicks this division has been outside of NE. That's why the reactions are so harsh when something like yesterday happens. 

 

Edited March 18, 2018 by Commonsense

[Tyrod's friend]

4 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

I'm not a guy that studies each player coming out and handing out grades so save the welcoming for someone that deserves it. Guys here and all over the Internet spend countless hours forming their own grades and you won't have a hard time finding an amatuer that competes with the NFL GMs for hits/misses.

 

That's all that matters is picking the right guy, I don't care how you came to the conclusion or if you pressed the calculate button on a million different formulas. Discounting anyone's opinions just because they aren't working for an NFL team is sloppy. 

 

The NFL gets it right, you're a Bills fan right? The best QB in the division at any point in Tom Brady's career was Chad freaking Pennington, save me the all knowing GM baloney.

 

 

Again, the numbers tell. 

The most value in the draft come from the 1st, then 2nd, then 3rd round.

Internet analysts, at best, are held to whether or not they got their picks aligned with the NFL - not whether or not they accurately got abilities right. Most often their failures are simply ignored. And using an Internet analyst to make your decisions leaves you like the kid cheating off the student that is going to get at best a C anyways. 

Hey, whatever. Have a great Sunday.

Edited March 18, 2018 by Tyrod's friend

[nikuman]

2 hours ago, terrytate said:

 

You are correct i have no source.  It is purely speculation on my part based off of logic, common sense, and history.   

of course not.  we will get a ton of good players, just not that young potential franchise qb. 

 

Because in the history of the NFL all of the "young potential franchise" QBs have been drafted within the first three picks?

[Needle]

Fans "really like" about 100 different guys pre-draft. Look through the threads and you will see posters talking up everyone. I am guilty of the same kind of excitement. Fans have the fortunate position of not having to choose just one or two of the 100.

 

So when a pick doesn't work out, many fans point to the guy they "really liked" and say I could have done a better job. The reality is they aren't experts and can't do the job of a GM from their home computer. 

 

Furthermore, no one here knows anything about the specific talks the Bills have had with other teams. The OP is 100 percent correct in saying that posters are talking with absolute certainty about things they have zero proof of. It's out of frustration sure but still not credible.

 

Edited March 18, 2018 by Needle

[terrytate]

44 minutes ago, nikuman said:

 

Because in the history of the NFL all of the "young potential franchise" QBs have been drafted within the first three picks?

 

Would you say you have better odds getting a star qb in the Top 5 picks or the rest of the picks in the nfl?

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-ranking-all-32-nfl-quarterbacks-entering-week-6

 

13 of the starting 32 qb's in the league are top 5 picks.   

 

it doesn't take a genius to figure out that the nfl draft is about odds.  Getting a top 5 pick gives you the best odds to find a superbowl caliber qb

[Bills Pimpin']

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, as I said, a few nuts and fruitcakes will take nearly any position. I'm sure there are a few people. 

 

But no, getting to 3 absolutely would not have been meaningless. Same as the Jets just put us in an extremely difficult position, we'd have done the same if we'd been the ones moving up.

 

Say the Browns go Darnold and the Giants Rosen or Mayfield. Would it have been useless to move to #3 early if as you suggest they think those are the three guys they want? Now say the Jets pick the third of those three. Still useless?

 

This hurt us. Now it could still turn out OK, if say the Bills want Rosen or Mayfield and the Giants go RB and the Jets pick Allen. But if that's how it's going, the Giants are likely to get a major offer. What do we do if the Browns go Darnold and we call the Giants and they say, "Yeah, Arizona just offered us their next three 1sts and a 2nd this year. Can you beat that?" Or if they say, "Listen, the Jets just offered us the #3 pick so we can get the guy we want anyway, as well as their 1st next year. You'll have to pretty much do a Pacman Jones at a strip club deal here and make it rain to beat that offer. Whatcha got?"

 

This hurts. It restricts our options and puts the Giants in the catbird seat, probably making it even more expensive to get there if that's where we need to go.

I'm not sure Beane thinks that way. From what he has said, and I have no reason not to believe him, he is pretty strict about the value of players and draft picks. IMO he has a value of moving to #2 and the Jets being at 3 doesn't change that value and no way he is going to get in a bidding war with the Jets for the 3rd pick in the draft when 1 and 2 are decided. We can play the "what if the Browns go Darnold and the Giants go Barkley" before the draft, but Beane won't and it's irresponsible for him to do so. Now if that scenario actually did happen and Beane wanted Rosen?.... Then he might up the ante but it will be based on his value of Rosen not the #3 pick. 

And I think that is the point of the thread. We don't know. And more importantly neither do the Jets and the Bills. There was not enough information for the Jets to make that expensive move for a question mark.

[terrytate]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

Which QB in this year's draft meets that definition?

there are 4 guys who will go with the first 4 picks in the draft who have the best odds in this draft to meet those expectations. 

[thebandit27]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

I can promise you they think they know more than they do

 

No offense intended here:

 

You are incorrect, and history shows it

 

We have folks on this board that have not only worked in the business, but for this team specifically 

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

No offense intended here:

 

You are incorrect, and history shows it

 

We have folks on this board that have not only worked in the business, but for this team specifically 

I indicated above there may be a few that have worked or coached at a higher level.  The vast majority have not yet some think they know it all 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

11 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

No offense intended here:

 

You are incorrect, and history shows it

 

We have folks on this board that have not only worked in the business, but for this team specifically 

Are they currently working there?

 

the lid was slapped shut when McDermott took over.  

 

Very very little was “leaked”.  

Of the 3 people I know of, only Doc has had relevant “rumors” come to fruition. 

 

You being one what have you broken?   

 

Im not being rude here I just haven’t seen it.   But then I only read a  portion of the threads.  

 

Edited March 18, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan

[34-78-83]

3 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

I am familiar with this type of post. It's just another "attack the fans"  post. It isn't that original.

 

Please allow me to, in the most respectful manner, remind you to whom you are posting:

We are the most diehard fans you can imagine! We are still here after decades of losing and front office stupidity. I am not going to list all of the idiotic moves by the Bills front office, but let me hold up the 2006 draft as a cookie cutter example of inept, bush league stupidity. And I dare say that this front office also had all the tools of which you speak. Am I correct so far?

 

The truth is that I feel good about our current coach and GM. They appear to be solid football people and have made some pretty good decisions thus far. That said, you are here telling dedicated fans how little we know which is your right I suppose. But do remember that a 12 year old kid with a few draft magazines and internet access could have done a better job drafting players than Whaley, Rex, or some of the other inferior football people we had running this team. There are many fans on this board who made great draft predictions, only to watch the Bills take Leodis McKelvin at #11 and lose game after game, for years. Some of the posters here (not me) are football experts. Do stick around and see.

 

Anyway, that is the past. Most Bills Fans are still scarred in some way and skeptical but maybe things will change. It does look OK so far imo.

 

GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

He's still 100% right though (even though you've correctly categorized his type of post). And his point should have the effect of ringing true to legions of message board posters when they read it. It should be something that at least sticks in the back of their heads as they (we) play out their male version of a soap opera pretending they know better or that the Bills should be able to know and even control the actions of other NFL teams.

[Big Turk]

5 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

You as in the collective you.  Including me and everyone here.  This entire past day has been filled with posts claiming absolute knowledge over what they could have done, should have done and will do.

 

And none of us know squat.  Because we do not know what value the Bills have on the QBs in this draft.  And none of us have anywhere near the access to the data the Bills have on these guys.  Few of us have watched them live, we don't have the volumes of tape they have, we have not had access to their coaches, other players to see about them.  We haven't stood at a white board or in a film room and quizzed them about reads, progressions, etc.  None of us have any of that kind of data.

 

Know what else?  We don't have phone lines connected to every other team's front office.  So we have no idea what offers are flying around.  For all we know there's a deal right now with the Giants or Browns.  Or not.  Or with someone else.  Yet people here insist we cannot move up now and that we lost any chance at a QB.  Which is simply wrong.  Because we don't know.

 

i love the Tom Clancy books.  One of Jack Ryan's favorite phrases is : don't know means don't know.  We don't know. Beane does know.  He knows he has to decide if any of the four is a guy he has to have, or if he's OK with any of the top 6 guys.  He knows or will know if the draft capital he has acquired will allow him to get a guy he wants or if he has to sweeten the deal.  He knows if there's a MLB or DT that at 12 could solidify his D for years.  He knows because it's his job to know.

 

Does that mean a guaranteed certainty in his decision?  Of course not.  But he's in a helluva lot better position than we are to make the call.  When we woke up this morning everyone thought Beane was smart for getting a bunch of picks for this draft, for getting some decent FAs, clearing cap, etc.  And 24 hours later he's a bum because he didn't make a trade that might only get him the third QB in his board.

 

He knows.  We don't know squat.  It's fun to debate opinions, but in the end we don't know squat.

 

Exactly this...too many people playing their Madden simulations thinking its realistic when the AI is terrible

[NewEra]

5 hours ago, terrytate said:

No offense but this post screams "taking solace in willful ignorance".  

 

This is just a message board for entertainment purposes, but this is stance you have taken is problematic for me.  1. You are giving people hope where there is no hope. 2. It is this type of fan mentality which allows for incompetence to happen year after year.  3. You are trying to portrait a rosy picture  after the jets trade, and that is a facade of authenticity. 

 

I truly hate being this negative and certainly try to avoid that type of negativity in every day life, but I can't  let you mislead people.  Beane has done a phenomenal job, aquiring picks, shedding cap space, making the most of the assets he has.  However to think that all of this was done with not a qb in mind is wrong.  It is not  a coincidence in one of the most loaded qb drafts ever we have the 2nd most draft capital of any team.  We loaded up to get a top guy and failed. Simple as that.

 

Is it all of a sudden May 1st and the draft isn’t over?  Oh, wait.  It’s still MARCH.  

This is what you said regarding each point

1-  there is no hope.  BWAAAAHAHAHAHA!  There is NO HOPE?  Not much to even discuss here.  There is very much hope.

 

2-  The fans are the reason that our team has sucked for so long.  ?

 

3-  there is no hope.  See 1.

 

 

You have no idea who we are trading up for. No one has any clue of how we rate each of the QBs.  Sitting at 21, we had little chance at selecting one of the top 5 QBs (Lamar Jackson MAY have fallen to 21: but if he’s a guy that they like, can you really just sit at 21 and hope he falls?).  Now, we will be able to draft one of them.  If we want Darnold or Rosen, the price to move up has likely increased, but we still have the ammo to do so.  

 

There are 3 blue chippers outside of the QBs.  Barkley, Chubb and Nelson (many say Minkah is in there as well, making it 4 blue chippers)  Of the teams picking in the top 6, each and every one of them are in need of each and everyone of those players (although I don’t think the Giants will be selecting Chubb).  Say all 3 are taken in the top 6: that leaves one of the top 4 QBs at pick 7. The Browns won’t be selecting two QBs. 

 

 

in summary:  You don’t know anything.  You think you do, but in reality, you have no clue,  the draft is still over a month away.  There is no deadline to trade up in the draft until it’s over.  You have no idea how our FO has these QBs rated.  You have no idea if Beane was on the horn with the colts and they told him that they didn’t want to trade out of the top 6 so they could secure one of those Blue chippers previously mentioned. None of them will fall to 12 (unless they do something stupid between now and the draft).  Baker and Allen may slip to 7+, where they can be traded up for without giving up the house,  Jackson will likely fall to 12.  We are in a great postion to draft a QB.  You have no idea.

4 hours ago, terrytate said:

There will always be people who want Beane fired, its the low hanging fruit.  he has done a great job   imo , i am just frustrated with the circumstances of the matter.  We desperately need a franchise qb , and there is no reasonable way of getting one anytime soon.

There is no reasonable way of getting a QB now?  Oh man.  Lunacy