[Vague Title]You don't know squat

[Bill from NYC]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

You as in the collective you.  Including me and everyone here.  This entire past day has been filled with posts claiming absolute knowledge over what they could have done, should have done and will do.

 

And none of us know squat.  Because we do not know what value the Bills have on the QBs in this draft.  And none of us have anywhere near the access to the data the Bills have on these guys.  Few of us have watched them live, we don't have the volumes of tape they have, we have not had access to their coaches, other players to see about them.  We haven't stood at a white board or in a film room and quizzed them about reads, progressions, etc.  None of us have any of that kind of data.

 

Know what else?  We don't have phone lines connected to every other team's front office.  So we have no idea what offers are flying around.  For all we know there's a deal right now with the Giants or Browns.  Or not.  Or with someone else.  Yet people here insist we cannot move up now and that we lost any chance at a QB.  Which is simply wrong.  Because we don't know.

 

i love the Tom Clancy books.  One of Jack Ryan's favorite phrases is : don't know means don't know.  We don't know. Beane does know.  He knows he has to decide if any of the four is a guy he has to have, or if he's OK with any of the top 6 guys.  He knows or will know if the draft capital he has acquired will allow him to get a guy he wants or if he has to sweeten the deal.  He knows if there's a MLB or DT that at 12 could solidify his D for years.  He knows because it's his job to know.

 

Does that mean a guaranteed certainty in his decision?  Of course not.  But he's in a helluva lot better position than we are to make the call.  When we woke up this morning everyone thought Beane was smart for getting a bunch of picks for this draft, for getting some decent FAs, clearing cap, etc.  And 24 hours later he's a bum because he didn't make a trade that might only get him the third QB in his board.

 

He knows.  We don't know squat.  It's fun to debate opinions, but in the end we don't know squat.

I am familiar with this type of post. It's just another "attack the fans"  post. It isn't that original.

 

Please allow me to, in the most respectful manner, remind you to whom you are posting:

We are the most diehard fans you can imagine! We are still here after decades of losing and front office stupidity. I am not going to list all of the idiotic moves by the Bills front office, but let me hold up the 2006 draft as a cookie cutter example of inept, bush league stupidity. And I dare say that this front office also had all the tools of which you speak. Am I correct so far?

 

The truth is that I feel good about our current coach and GM. They appear to be solid football people and have made some pretty good decisions thus far. That said, you are here telling dedicated fans how little we know which is your right I suppose. But do remember that a 12 year old kid with a few draft magazines and internet access could have done a better job drafting players than Whaley, Rex, or some of the other inferior football people we had running this team. There are many fans on this board who made great draft predictions, only to watch the Bills take Leodis McKelvin at #11 and lose game after game, for years. Some of the posters here (not me) are football experts. Do stick around and see.

 

Anyway, that is the past. Most Bills Fans are still scarred in some way and skeptical but maybe things will change. It does look OK so far imo.

 

GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

[Green Lightning]

45 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

A lot of the frustration over the Jets moving up has more to do with almost two decades of being unable to land a franchise QB that's resulted in a never ending cycle of mediocrity.  Sometimes people need to vent.

This. If we use history as a guideline, fans feel we're heading to yet another era of a quarterback abyss. After such a flash of competence we've seen from the FO, this Jets move is a bitter pill that many will need to process and to vent. It's like George Patton said, a good soldier bitches.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

 We don't know squat.  It's fun to debate opinions, but in the end we don't know squat.

 

 

That's correct. We don't know squat. Squat means nothing. We don't know nothing. Correct.

 

It's certainly true that we don't know everything. Beane doesn't either, of course. Nor does anyone, unless you're a religious person and believe in an all-knowing God.

 

Beane does know more than us. But we know plenty enough to make educated guesses.

 

 

2 hours ago, sherpa said:

He also knows what the Colts wanted for their #3 pick, and decided it wasn't worth the cost, unless someone thinks the Colts didn't leverage us against the Jets.

 

 

 

I've thought about that, and it's possible either way. Certainly if given a chance, they would have leveraged us.

 

But some offers come with "look, it's a yes or no offer. You have to give us an answer now. If you want to leverage the offer we won't even give it to you. Say no and the offer's off the table" ground rules.

 

I haven't a clue, but it's certainly possible that they didn't get a chance to bounce it off us.

Edited March 18, 2018 by Thurman#1

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That's correct. We don't know squat. Squat means nothing. We don't know nothing. Correct.

 

It's certainly true that we don't know everything. Beane doesn't either, of course. Nor does anyone, unless you're a religious person and believe in an all-knowing God.

 

Beane does know more than us. But we know plenty enough to make educated guesses.

Guesses.  Nothing more.  Nothing less.  But some here think their opinions aren't guesses.  They think for example there is no way to get a franchise QB this year because if one trade made yesterday.  And that is ridiculous.

 

10 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

I am familiar with this type of post. It's just another "attack the fans"  post. It isn't that original.

 

Please allow me to, in the most respectful manner, remind you to whom you are posting:

We are the most diehard fans you can imagine! We are still here after decades of losing and front office stupidity. I am not going to list all of the idiotic moves by the Bills front office, but let me hold up the 2006 draft as a cookie cutter example of inept, bush league stupidity. And I dare say that this front office also had all the tools of which you speak. Am I correct so far?

 

The truth is that I feel good about our current coach and GM. They appear to be solid football people and have made some pretty good decisions thus far. That said, you are here telling dedicated fans how little we know which is your right I suppose. But do remember that a 12 year old kid with a few draft magazines and internet access could have done a better job drafting players than Whaley, Rex, or some of the other inferior football people we had running this team. There are many fans on this board who made great draft predictions, only to watch the Bills take Leodis McKelvin at #11 and lose game after game, for years. Some of the posters here (not me) are football experts. Do stick around and see.

 

Anyway, that is the past. Most Bills Fans are still scarred in some way and skeptical but maybe things will change. It does look OK so far imo.

 

GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

I would estimate there are very few people on this board that have been a fan of this team longer than me.  You would have to have been sitting at the Rockpile in 1960 to have been a fan for as long.  I appreciate the frustration as much if not more so than many here.  But I will say again:  don't know means don't know.  Beane has a lot of cards he can play or not play.  It comes down to their evaluation they make on these guys.

 

All I know is yesterday at this time the general feeling was he's doing a good job, and now some people want him fired because of a trade that we have no idea how it will affect anything.  It is just ridiculous.

 

You want to criticize do so once we know what happens.

[Thurman#1]

3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Guesses.  Nothing more.  Nothing less.  But some here think their opinions aren't guesses.  They think for example there is no way to get a franchise QB this year because if one trade made yesterday.  And that is ridiculous.

 

 

No more ridiculous than any other educated guess. 

 

And that isn't a blue-sky guess. It's a fairly reasonable one.

 

Myself, I wouldn't go that far. It's not impossible. But it just became much much much more unlikely. This was bad news for the Bills.

 

Where are all the people who want him fired? A few nuts and fruitcakes, I would guess, but basically nobody. But yeah, this hurt bad.

Edited March 18, 2018 by Thurman#1

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No more ridiculous than any other educated guess. 

 

And that isn't a blue-sky guess. It's a fairly reasonable one.

 

Myself, I wouldn't go that far. It's not impossible. But it just became much much much more unlikely. This was bad news for the Bills.

I think they will move up to get one guy only if they think it is a guy they have to have.  To go to 3 would be meaningless except as a bargaining chip to get to 1. Only 1 guarantees anything.  If  I'm Beane and I think there is a guy like that it would be dumb to spend all my capital to get to 3 right now.  I wait till draft day and move then so no one can jump ahead of me.

 

My guess is they may have several guys they think would be OK and not one they  think is a can't miss type guy.  So they will watch and move anywhere between 4-11 to get a guy or get him at 12

7 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No more ridiculous than any other educated guess. 

 

And that isn't a blue-sky guess. It's a fairly reasonable one.

 

Myself, I wouldn't go that far. It's not impossible. But it just became much much much more unlikely. This was bad news for the Bills.

 

Where are all the people who want him fired? A few nuts and fruitcakes, I would guess, but basically nobody. But yeah, this hurt bad.

Look through the site.  There are aseveral folks saying just that

[thebandit27]

I can promise that there's folks on this board that know a lot more than you think 

[oldmanfan]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I can promise that there's folks on this board that know a lot more than you think 

I can promise you they think they know more than they do

[maryland-bills-fan]

Sorry folks, you should have asked me first.  God speaks directly into my ear.  The Jests just screwed themselves for the next 4 years.  They will have a possible good QB on a team that is a depleted roster.  He will running for his life, throwing to inferior receivers, playing catch-up and be unable to develop as a NFL QB.  All that wasted potential.  The Jest pick at #6 because their present team is bad. It will not get to average with losing 3 second round picks.  They just wasted $15 million on TWO "should-have-been-good" quarterbacks and now they will be grooming another of the same sort.  They would have picked before us before at #6 anyway.

Edited March 18, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan

[thurst44]

1 hour ago, terrytate said:

 

You are correct i have no source.  It is purely speculation on my part based off of logic, common sense, and history.   

of course not.  we will get a ton of good players, just not that young potential franchise qb. 

Do you honestly know who will be and won't be a "franchise qb"? If you look at the top five QBs, practically no one has the same order even when just predicting. We've been going back and forth on Josh Allen, who is clearly moving up draft boards, and may be the reason the Jets moved up--and if he turns out to be what many of us (including me) think he is, and the Bills did want him, they might be saving us from ourselves. Look at the most comparable draft in 1983. The (arguably) best QB went off the board at 27, the second best was the top pick, and the third best was ours (and he's an afterthought in the 30 For 30 about that draft) and we had the 12 pick that year ... and took a tight end, and got our "franchise qb" at 14. I'll posit that worked out pretty well for us. And what team took Ken O'Brien when Dan Marino was on the board? The last time the Jets took a QB in the draft, I bust out laughing (which is unfortunate as Hackenberg comes across as an extremely likable individual), and that seems valid since here we are two years later, the Jets have just signed two established QBs, and we are still expecting them to draft a QB, so goodbye Hackenberg and Petty. That's also "common sense and history"

 

We might end up not being able to trade and wind up with Lamar Jackson, and he could turn out to be better than many experts think. He certainly put up impressive numbers with his arm, incredible numbers with his feet, and is no slouch in the intangibles. Theoretically, there could be a run on the top four QBs, and it could drop someone like Vita Vea or Roquan Smith or Quentin Nelson to us and Jackson might still be there at 22 and we would still have four Day 2 picks in what's considered a great draft. 

 

The Jets move up might convince the Browns they have to take a QB, they take Darnold, the Giants take Barkley (I'm in Jersey a few miles from MetLife and Giants fans and experts do NOT think Giants are going QB, but again who really knows), the Jets are enamored with Allen, and the Browns, who we've already traded with this off-season, decide to get a couple more picks from us, and voila, Rosen is a Bill.

 

Let's not forget the craziest, but not impossible, or even all that unlikely, scenario--that the Jets don't even want a QB. Yes, conventional wisdom (and maybe basic wisdom) dictates you trade up for a QB. However, the Jets are NOTORIOUS on draft day for, to put it generously, not being predictable. ESPN even put together this montage of groaners a few years ago, and while they have had some good picks, they have also added to the "highlight" reel.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZxNeFLuY98 (and, no, they are not drafting that Peter Pan dude)

 

It's not ignorance to say "we don't know" when we genuinely don't know. And draft history tells us we truly do not know.

 

Edited March 18, 2018 by thurst44

[CommonCents]

I don't agree with OP. There are fans here that

spend the better part of their day studying players and situations that involve the Bills,

lots of em. Moving to 3 would not have been "meaningless" that's a silly thing to say.

 

Your point is lost on me, I think you are being trolled by posters calling for Beane's head so they can generate reactions such as this. 

 

The only advantage modern day scouts and GMs have over fans is being able to meet these guys and interview them face to face. Everything else is out there if you look deep enough. 

[Tyrod's friend]

1 hour ago, terrytate said:

 

  we will get a ton of good players, just not that young potential franchise qb. 

You don't even know THAT much. The Jets could draft Josh Allen. The Giants are widely thought to be happy with Webb; Browns can only take 1 QB and they need defense. Denver signed Keenum to a 2 year deal. If necessary, we are the only team left that can outbid someone if that was is seen as needed. 

So we can move to 7th, take the QB that fits OUR team. Our HC and GM came from a place where the QB was a mobile, strong armed guy that threatened the opposition. They had a great linebacker. 

You don't know. Is it probable? Maybe, but maybe the only guy they really liked all along was a 4.35 40 QB. Maybe they valued Roquan Smith over all the QBs in the draft. Maybe they see a way to get both those guys and end the trauma. 

And in every post, I'm going to say this: There are 8,000,000 NYers that do not have a high opinion of the Jets FO. What makes you think they did the right thing this time? Because believe me, as a former NYer, I can go right down the line and tell you how stupid they are. 

[BuffaloRush]

2 hours ago, Fetou said:

I'm generally inclined to agree. With a few exceptions:

 

1) I know Brian Orakpo is better than Aaron Maybin. I've always known, since I was born

2) I know Donte Whitner isn't worth the 8th pick overall

3) I know fan picks as a rule have been better than the player we've ended up with in 1st round for the last ~15 years.

 

Hopefully we now have a FO who has the ability to compete with drunk Bills fans.

 

Careful there @Fetou, I analyzed the draft where Whitney was taken.  Many fans here tried to tell me he was a good pick 

[thurst44]

2 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Sorry folks, you should have asked me first.  God speaks directly into my ear.  The Jests just screwed themselves for the next 4 years.  They will have a possible good QB on a team that is a depleted roster.  He will running for his life, throwing to inferior receivers, playing catch-up and be unable to develop as a NFL QB.  All that wasted potential.  The Jest pick at #6 because their present team is bad. It will not get to average with losing 3 second round picks.  They just wasted $15 million on TWO "should-have-been-good" quarterbacks and now they will be grooming another of the same sort.

And we forgot the silliest reason why this is a bad move for the Jets. The Jets have had their best recent picks when they are slotted at 6 (Adams, Leonard Smith)

[Tyrod's friend]

1 minute ago, Commonsense said:

I don't agree with OP. There are fans here that

spend the better part of their day studying players and situations that involve the Bills,

lots of em. Moving to 3 would not have been "meaningless" that's a silly thing to say.

 

Your point is lost on me, I think you are being trolled by posters calling for Beane's head so they can generate reactions such as this. 

 

The only advantage modern day scouts and GMs have over fans is being able to meet these guys and interview them face to face. Everything else is out there if you look deep enough. 

No, no it isn't. You don't have true game tape. You see what the TV camera angle provides you. On a passing play, you have no idea where the safeties are or what they are doing. In most cases, you don't know the underlying defense or the purpose of the offense in a particular play before the snap. You might think you do, but you don't. You don't have access to the analytics that they do, the computers that grind out probabilities. 

It is the height of arrogance to suggest even for a minute that you can do part time, what a professional scout does full time with the power of a multi-million dollar organization can do full time. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

The OP is correct.   

 

How many rediculous threads in how the JETS screwed us or how laughable Beane should be fired.  

 

We are all just a bunch of fans with wishes and dreams.   

 

If we really were experts we’d have jobs in front offices.  

[Beast]

2 hours ago, sherpa said:

He also knows what the Colts wanted for their #3 pick, and decided it wasn't worth the cost, unless someone thinks the Colts didn't leverage us against the Jets.

 

 

Sure, and I get Beane’s thinking. He has been without a franchise QB for 1 year.

 

We fans have been without one for 22.

 

I get where he is coming from but I get where I’m coming from more.

 

It was all about getting that this off season. Anyone that says different is a fool.

 

Hopefully he still will.

Edited March 18, 2018 by Binghamton Beast

[JMF2006]

If its any comfort the Jets traded up for Sanchez and they also drafted Geno Smith(although not in the 1st).

 

So take solace in the thought they will probably draft Allen or Jackson and smile knowing they will both be average or below average.

[CommonCents]

Just now, Tyrod's friend said:

No, no it isn't. You don't have true game tape. You see what the TV camera angle provides you. On a passing play, you have no idea where the safeties are or what they are doing. In most cases, you don't know the underlying defense or the purpose of the offense in a particular play before the snap. You might think you do, but you don't. You don't have access to the analytics that they do, the computers that grind out probabilities. 

It is the height of arrogance to suggest even for a minute that you can do part time, what a professional scout does full time with the power of a multi-million dollar organization can do full time. 

Would it be equally as arrogant to say any machine and multi-million dollar set up that leads you to draft Reggie Raglands over the Deion Jones of the world needs to be scrapped!

 

Look at the hits and misses of GMs then look and listen to what fans who know football say. I will bet top dollar the hits/misses aren't far off from eachother.

 

Analytics lol

[Thurman#1]

10 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I think they will move up to get one guy only if they think it is a guy they have to have.  To go to 3 would be meaningless except as a bargaining chip to get to 1. Only 1 guarantees anything.  If  I'm Beane and I think there is a guy like that it would be dumb to spend all my capital to get to 3 right now.  I wait till draft day and move then so no one can jump ahead of me.

 

My guess is they may have several guys they think would be OK and not one they  think is a can't miss type guy.  So they will watch and move anywhere between 4-11 to get a guy or get him at 12

Look through the site.  There are aseveral folks saying just that

 

 

Yeah, as I said, a few nuts and fruitcakes will take nearly any position. I'm sure there are a few people. 

 

But no, getting to 3 absolutely would not have been meaningless. Same as the Jets just put us in an extremely difficult position, we'd have done the same if we'd been the ones moving up.

 

Say the Browns go Darnold and the Giants Rosen or Mayfield. Would it have been useless to move to #3 early if as you suggest they think those are the three guys they want? Now say the Jets pick the third of those three. Still useless?

 

This hurt us. Now it could still turn out OK, if say the Bills want Rosen or Mayfield and the Giants go RB and the Jets pick Allen. But if that's how it's going, the Giants are likely to get a major offer. What do we do if the Browns go Darnold and we call the Giants and they say, "Yeah, Arizona just offered us their next three 1sts and a 2nd this year. Can you beat that?" Or if they say, "Listen, the Jets just offered us the #3 pick so we can get the guy we want anyway, as well as their 1st next year. You'll have to pretty much do a Pacman Jones at a strip club deal here and make it rain to beat that offer. Whatcha got?"

 

This hurts. It restricts our options and puts the Giants in the catbird seat, probably making it even more expensive to get there if that's where we need to go.