The Jets Just Made a Mistake

[TheElectricCompany]

I'm really struggling to see the Giants move.

I know we love our value charts, but the Jets had to give up 600 extra points to move to #3. 

Colts likely know that there will be a QB blitz early, with 3 possible off the board before they pick, so an elite player at other positions should be available.  Can you say the same by moving from #2 to #12? 

With the Giants reasonably considering QB, I just don't see any "fair" deals happening, they'll bury us. 

Edited March 18, 2018 by TheElectricCompany

[Bangarang]

21 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

First of all, Gettleman is not going to "bend over" Beane and the Bills. Gettleman was Beane's mentor for years. They're very close. Not to mention Gettleman started his scouting career with the Buffalo Bills in the late 80's. So it's personal for Gettleman, fwiw. 

 

But not only is it personal, bending over another NFL team in a trade is simply bad for business. Otherwise, good luck ever making a deal with that team ever again.

 

Gettleman’s job is to make the Giants into the best team possible. He has all the leverage here and I’m sure he’ll take advantage of it. And the value chart has its time and place but I think when teams are trying to move up to the top of the draft for a QB then it’s not as simple as adding up the pick values and getting them as close as possible.

Edited March 18, 2018 by Bangarang

[JMF2006]

21 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Which again, would be dumb and grounds for inevitable firing.

 

It would be two years in a row this regime passed on QBs and they just traded their starter. 

 

They traded the second string RB that just happens to take snaps where the QB lines up   (and they got the last pick of the second round)

1 minute ago, Bangarang said:

 

Gettleman’s job is to make the Giants into the best team possible. He has all the leverage here and I’m sure he’ll take advantage of it.

 

Beane also has the option of saying no.

[Bangarang]

 

1 minute ago, JMF2006 said:

Beane also has the option of saying no.

 

Well obviously

[Wayne Arnold]

9 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Gettleman’s job is to make the Giants into the best team possible. He has all the leverage here and I’m sure he’ll take advantage of it. And the value chart has its time and place but I think when teams are trying to move up to the top of the draft for a QB then it’s not as simple as adding up the pick values and getting them as close as possible.

 

Did you read the rest of my post? The Giants only have 5 draft picks. You don't think they'd want to add three more picks to the first three rounds by only dropping five spots?

[BuffaloMatt]

21 hours ago, BUFFALOBART said:

Assuming that the Bills improve their W/L record next year, a coveted QB pick would likely not be available to them in '19. The time to go all in, is NOW

OK. Play GM. What's your move?

[Bangarang]

8 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Did you read the rest of my post? The Giants only have 5 draft picks. You don't think they'd want to add three more picks to the first three rounds by only dropping five spots?

 

I’m sure the Giants would like to add more picks. Did you not read my post and how I feel about the value chart?

Edited March 18, 2018 by Bangarang

[TheElectricCompany]

9 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Did you read the rest of my post? The Giants only have 5 draft picks. You don't think they'd want to add three more picks to the first three rounds by only dropping five spots?

If you added up all the picks in the chart, I would bet it is quite a bit more expensive to go from 12 -> 7 -> 2 through 2 different teams, than going from 12 -> 2 with only one team. 

 

Edited March 18, 2018 by TheElectricCompany

[Wayne Arnold]

1 minute ago, TheElectricCompany said:

If you added up all the picks in the chart, I would bet it is quite a bit more expensive to go from 12 -> 7 -> 2 through 2 different teams, than going from 12 -> 2 with only one team. 

 

I don't think so. Offering the Giants the #7 pick would be much more appealing than having to go all the way back to #12.

 

6 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

I’m sure the Giants would like to add more picks. Did you not read my post and how I feel about the value chart?

 

Is there a different chart we should be referring to?

[TheElectricCompany]

4 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

I don't think so. Offering the Giants the #7 pick would be much more appealing than having to go all the way back to #12.

 

Of course it would, but we have to get there first, and do the Bucs even want to move? 

It looks like it would take 1300 points to move from 12 to 2. The Jets had to pay ~600 extra to move from 6 to 3. 

Let's put a little on top of that and say it takes ~2000+ to go from 12 to 2.

You add two teams into the mix, trying to go from 12 to 7 to 2, and I bet its more like ~2300+. 

Edited March 18, 2018 by TheElectricCompany

[Bangarang]

10 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

Is there a different chart we should be referring to?

 

Did you miss the part where I said given the scenario I don’t think it’s as simple as looking up numbers on a chart?

[TheBeane]

I don't think this trade matters much. Let us remember the last time the Jets traded up in the first round for a QB. The results??

 

Butt fumble...

[Wayne Arnold]

Just now, TheElectricCompany said:

Of course it would, but we have to get there first, and do the Bucs even want to move? 

It looks like it would take 1300 points to move from 12 to 2. The Jets had to pay ~600 extra to move from 6 to 3. 

I would bet that we would have to give up ~2000+ to from 12 to 2, and more like ~2300+ if we went the 12 to 7 to 2 route with two teams. 

 

I chose the Bucs because they're another team that doesn't need a quarterback. I would think adding an extra second by dropping five spots would be very appealing. If they don't want to then there's also the Colts (6) or Bears (8) or even the 49ers (9). None of those teams are looking for a quarterback early.

[TheElectricCompany]

5 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

I chose the Bucs because they're another team that doesn't need a quarterback. I would think adding an extra second by dropping five spots would be very appealing. If they don't want to then there's also the Colts (6) or Bears (8) or even the 49ers (9). None of those teams are looking for a quarterback early.

I'd be surprised if there was anymore movement until the draft. 

If anything, the Jets move to 3, signaling a QB, makes those spots even more appealing. It's a greater chance at an elite prospect sliding down the board.

In March, you are not going to get those teams to slide back to 12 for a 2nd round pick. They have all the leverage right now and can demand a premium.

Come draft day, when all their targets are gone and they have some flexibility? Maybe you can get away with a deal closer to the value chart, but not now. 

 

Edited March 18, 2018 by TheElectricCompany

[Wayne Arnold]

3 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Did you miss the part where I said given the scenario I don’t think it’s as simple as looking up numbers on a chart?

 

I saw that but didn't find it relevant. What's the point of throwing out all reference points in a discussion about draft trades? If the trade value chart is irrelevant in this given scenario then what else is there?

 

If Gettleman refuses to be reasonable then there won't be a trade. It's that simple.

[Bangarang]

2 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

I saw that but didn't find it relevant. What's the point of throwing out all reference points in a discussion about draft trades? If the trade value chart is irrelevant in this given scenario then what else is there?

 

If Gettleman refuses to be reasonable then there won't be a trade. It's that simple.

 

Now you’re just putting words in my mouth because I never said it was irrelevant.

[Wayne Arnold]

6 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

I'd be surprised if there was anymore movement until the draft. 

If anything, the Jets move to 3, signaling a QB, makes those spots even more appealing. It's a greater chance at an elite prospect sliding down the board.

In March, you are not going to get those teams to slide back to 12 for a 2nd round pick. They have all the leverage right now and can demand a premium.

Come draft day, when all their targets are gone and they have some flexibility? Maybe you can get away with a deal closer to the value chart, but not now. 

 

Well yeah, if this trade ever happens I don't expect it to occur for at least another 3+ weeks. Because I honestly don't think Beane and his staff have their draft order set yet. Which means they don't know if they even want to move up to #2. 

[YoloinOhio]

 

[KingRex]

17 minutes ago, BUFFALOBART said:

I would make a run for the #1, or #2 pick. The cost may be horrific if the picks are available at all, but if we have focused on who we think 'the guy' is with certainty, I say pull the trigger, and pay whatever price.

Even with the recent great FA moves, the Bills still have enough holes that must be filled to nkeep this a playoff worthy TEAM that the likely price for trading draft and potential current roster resources to move to the top of the draft board would be to not only condem the Bills to a horrible record in '18, likely make it essential to fill position player gaps bin '19, but even worse if the newly drafted "franchise" QB either gets hurt (behind a likely porous OL that needs a starting C, and another starter or usable swing guy) or turns out to be Ryan Leaf rather than Peyton Manning, trading up looks like it brings the price of killing this TEAM.

 

I much prefer the Pitts method building the TEAM first and then draft a Big Ben to win it all than the very risky move of pay any price to move up now and hope drafting a franchise QB this year does not turn out to be either another of many dogs drafted early or an Andrew Luck injury victim.

[Thurman#1]

On 3/18/2018 at 1:56 AM, jrober38 said:

 

Naw, there's no shot that happens.

 

What I'm saying is what's going to happen.

 

Everything they've done so far makes sense. 

 

Tyrod is the steady hand at QB, with Josh Gordon stretching the field (what Tyrod does best) and Landry working the slot. Njoku can stretch the seem at the TE spot. Barkley gives their run game instant credibility. Allen is the guy they love (has been reported on and off for a while now), and having Tyrod allows them to red shirt him for a year and then insert him into a supremely talented offense in 2019. 

 

Wait and see. 

 

 

Yeah, you're saying what's going to happen with nothing but opinion to back it up, and even being stupid enough to use the word "guarantee" on something you have absolutely no power over.

 

I got it. And it was, is and will be stupid to confuse opinion with fact as you are doing here.

Edited March 19, 2018 by Thurman#1