Jets just traded with Colts for #3 pick in first round

[3rdand12]

1 minute ago, billsherd said:

I think with this trade Jets just messed up the whole Beane Plan.

that is why you never lock in something as GM. You need to me hugely aware of as many possibilities as possible : )
Nothing bad has happened.

 This is freaking fun as heck Folks.

[Tyrod's friend]

3 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

And, who is that, exactly?  There is no "top guy".  They all have serious flaws.

 

 

I don't know if you're an idiot or not, but you are definitely attempting to rewrite history to fit your own agenda.

 

 

Too bad that you and your friend don't remember that accepting "leftovers" in 2004 rather than chasing after a first round pretender would have yielded Matt Schaub. 

 

You both are hysterical babies ... and ignorant of what went down in 2004.

• 2004 had a bonafide consensus #1 pick in Elli Manning.  Nobody else was even close, and that included all positions not just QBs. Consensus #1 picks hit at a much higher rate than do all over picks, including the guys taken at #2 or #3.   In 2018, there isn't even a consensus on the best QB.   That suggests that maybe all of them are pretenders or, more than likely, one will actually make a decent NFL starter and the rest will bust.
• Phillip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger were both elite prospects significantly better than any of the QB prospects in 2018.  That's the major difference between 2004 and 2018: the quality of the prospects.  Losman was easily a better prospect than Jackson or Rudolph, and at least as good as Allen.  Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield are only marginally better prospects than Losman, and nowhere near as good as the top three from 2004.
• JP Losman would likely have been a second rounder in 2004 if the Bills hadn't traded up to grab him in the first round when Pittsburgh took Roethlisberger at #13.  It was a move predicated on placating the fans who had worked themselves into a QB frenzy.  If Donahoe had waited until the second round and taken Losman, or if he was gone, taken the "leftover" who turned out to be Matt Schaub, who was a decent starter (at least as good as a Dalton or Flacco or Tannehill if not better), the Bills would have had a shot at Aaron Rodgers in the 2005 draft.
• 2018 really resembles 2011 or 2012 more than it resembles 2004 when there were lots of QB prospects taken in the first round (4 in each draft) but only 3 had real success (Newton, Luck, Tannehill), although both of those drafts featured consensus #1 picks who, like Manning, were clearly much better prospects than the over-hyped pretenders whom teams wasted first rounders on (and Washington wasted a lot more than just that).  Aside from the #1 consensus picks, the real quality in both 2011 and 2012 largely came from the "leftovers" or developmental guys who were drafted after the first round: Andy Dalton and Tyrod Taylor in 2011 and Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, and Nick Foles in 2012.  Oh, yeah, and a real "leftover" among "leftovers", undrafted FA Case Keenum also came out of 2012.
• The Bills have been carefully building up a cache of draft picks that they could use to move up to get a QB prospect if one they like is available, but they don't seem likely to waste those picks drafting a QB that they don't really believe in just to draft a first round QB.  That seemed to be the message from Beane's press conference.  Making personnel moves primarily to pander to the fan base rather than to build a winning football team doesn't seem to be part of the Beane-McDermott regime's DNA, which is a sea change from the way the Bills operated in 2004.

In reality, what you two are suggesting --- trading whatever it takes to move to the top of the draft board to taking a QB, any QB with a lot of positive hype from the media draft mavens -- is EXACTLY what the Bills did in 2004 that got them Losman.  I'm sorry that the Bills picked TJ Graham over Russell Wilson in 2012, but I'm sure not sorry that the Bills passed on Matt Leinart, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, and Brandon Weeden.  Too bad they didn't do the same with Losman.  

 

PREACH IT.

[Success]

3 minutes ago, billsherd said:

I think with this trade Jets just messed up the whole Beane Plan.

He didn’t have one plan.  No good GM does.

[Boatdrinks]

15 minutes ago, Phils n Bills said:

This is a tough one. The stars finally aligned for us after 20 years. We have the draft wealth to move in a qb heavy draft. Move up to 12, ready to make another leap and we get beat to the punch with the 3rd pick. Let’s hope we’re still aiming higher.

The stars never aligned, though. The Bills  don't have the draft wealth to move up to where they need to be. At least not yet , or they'd be sitting in the 3 spot right now. You can have picks upon picks, but if the team you are trading with doesn't want your pick because they can't get their target player, you're stuck. The Bills traded out of draft certainty last year: they had the pick at 10 to take Watson or Mahomes. If fans want to blame someone, they can blame McDermott for this. Beane wasn't here yet. They took a gamble and thus far it hasn't led to the pick they need. 

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Compounding the issue for the Bills is McD wanting to pass on QB last year..........and the perception that he made a trade with a connection in KC rather than the team with lesser prospects for the coming season and ended up with the 22nd pick instead of the 4th pick.      They are lucky they got a good player in Tre White otherwise they'd be getting crucified Browns-style for it. 

Hah , you beat me to it. This is all a result of last years pass on Watson/ Mahomes. 

[Doc Brown]

Thanks Schefter.  Mine as well tweet about the Music City Miracle while you're at it.

 

 

[Chuck Wagon]

10 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Compounding the issue for the Bills is McD wanting to pass on QB last year..........and the perception that he made a trade with a connection in KC rather than the team with lesser prospects for the coming season and ended up with the 22nd pick instead of the 4th pick.      They are lucky they got a good player in Tre White otherwise they'd be getting crucified Browns-style for it. 

 

 

KC & Houston were both playoff teams, Houston falling to the #4 pick can't really be predicted.  I also believe there were stories the Texans didn't inquire about trading up with us, they were ok waiting to see if one of Watson or Mahomes fell further, but once Mahomes went they worked the phones hard.

 

However, I do agree with your larger point.  The trade down was done to gather ammo for this year, the Sammy / Tyrod / Cordy / Darby trades, all more ammo for this year.  If Mahomes comes out firing the ball all over the field and makes Sammy look like a WR #1, Watson gets back to his pre-injury level and whatever rookie the Jets have at QB lights it up and we are left being sold McCarron / Mason Rudolph / Nathan Peterman, all the trust the process and drought breaking goodwill is going to dry up very very fast.

[xRUSHx]

17 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

Clearly the Colts didn't want to move too far down the board.  Glenn clearly wasn't in our long term plans.  In moving from 21 to 12 we basically got 2nd round pick value of out him.  Moving to 12 was a necessary move to continue discussions on a trade up.  Even if we can't move up and 4 or 5 QBs are off the board. Moving up to 12 will net the ~7-8th best position player in the draft, a guy who was likely gone well before 21.

So what without a franchise worthy QB it really is just another crap shoot for another staff building around nothing but a backup QB. Late rounders in Peterman and another from this draft will do nothing but become backups at best. 

 

Maybin 2.0 anyone at 12 or how about we take another WR early, no guarantees any position will make it big in the NFL. Same old OBD cycle of not holding the QB position in a high enough regard, here we go again with another teams backup QB as the main focus.

Look out for the Jests with Rosen they will easily become the top of the East very quickly.

Edited March 17, 2018 by xRUSHx

[akm0404]

14 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

I'll put money that 2 QBs that everyone says are "Top 10 locks" will in fact be selcted outside the Top 10...happens every year...draft pundits ideas usually dont align with NFL teams ideas.

 

Wait, are you offering a wager that two or fewer quarterbacks will be selected in the top 10?

 

I am willing to wager up to 500$ on this, pending selection of suitable escrow.

[Boatdrinks]

5 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

KC & Houston were both playoff teams, Houston falling to the #4 pick can't really be predicted.  I also believe there were stories the Texans didn't inquire about trading up with us, they were ok waiting to see if one of Watson or Mahomes fell further, but once Mahomes went they worked the phones hard.

 

However, I do agree with your larger point.  The trade down was done to gather ammo for this year, the Sammy / Tyrod / Cordy / Darby trades, all more ammo for this year.  If Mahomes comes out firing the ball all over the field and makes Sammy look like a WR #1, Watson gets back to his pre-injury level and whatever rookie the Jets have at QB lights it up and we are left being sold McCarron / Mason Rudolph / Nathan Peterman, all the trust the process and drought breaking goodwill is going to dry up very very fast.

I think the point is that the Bills passed up an opportunity to draft their QB last year, for a chance they might be able to draft one this year. So far, it's snake eyes. 

[Chuck Wagon]

10 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

I think the point is that the Bills passed up an opportunity to draft their QB last year, for a chance they might be able to draft one this year. So far, it's snake eyes. 

 

 

That's what I said.

[3rdand12]

7 minutes ago, xRUSHx said:

So what without a franchise worthy QB it really is just another crap shoot for another staff building around nothing but a backup QB. Maybin, EJ or how about we take another WR early for our QB not good enough to beet out the starter from the team he came from. Same old OBD cycle of not holding the QB position in a high enough regard, here we go again with another teams backup QB as the main focus.

Look out for the Jests with Rosen they will easily become the top of the East very quickly.

have they Ever developed a QB. Ever ? Pennington ?

no worries

[Wily Dog]

15 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

LOL.  True.  Same old Bills.

 

The Sky Is Falling ,The Sky is Falling . You have to trust McBeane. I'd say that, they have done a pretty good job without our help, lately. No sense running around like chicken little.

[NickelCity]

Gotta go up to 2, and there's no reason to wait anymore. All there is to it. 

[Reed83HOF]

15 minutes ago, Success said:

He didn’t have one plan.  No good GM does.

how do we know he is a good GM yet? Because of 2 trades?

[jumpgo692003]

17 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

 

I'll start with NFL tracker. Their scoring has correctly led to the first QB taken pretty frequently, and I think their first two have always gone 1-2.

They score Darnold 7.1, but all of the remaining QBs between 6 an 6.1. (By the way, the drop between Darnold and the next guy is the largest in the last five years. And the drop between all other players available, and the second best QB is ridiculous.)

Ok, ok, I can hear it now. Nobody likes NFL Tracker, and Chris Trappasso is an idiot. How about Mayock? He's fairly indecisive about choices - tends to like a lot of them. Rudolph is clearly not in the mix but the others are close. I've listened to every Waldman review of all the QBs - he's not really decisive, although he likes Rosen a lot. It's clear he can't stand Allen, but then again he gives a LOT, I mean ALOT of love to Jackson whom almost no one else considers in the mix.

That's what I've read, seen and heard. I know there are plenty of people that do a lot more research here than me. But I don't think I'm far off in saying there's no clear cut, blemish-less QB. 
 

if you believe that then you should be vocal about standing pat or trading down because Jackson will likely be available.

[3rdand12]

2 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

I think the point is that the Bills passed up an opportunity to draft their QB last year, for a chance they might be able to draft one this year. So far, it's snake eyes. 

I felt that was the plan all along as well.

 

 Plans change as the Nfl is fluid to some degree. Coaching changes etc.

I have no doubt that if Bills have found the future QB and are sure, they will mortgage the this draft and part of the future. They know what they need to do. we don't

Go AJ !!

[Success]

Just now, Reed83HOF said:

how do we know he is a good GM yet? Because of 2 trades?

We don’t know for sure, but I love what I’ve seen so far.  That hasn’t changed because we couldn’t trade with the colts.

[3rdand12]

2 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

how do we know he is a good GM yet? Because of 2 trades?

Theoretical my man

[YoloinOhio]

39 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

3 2nd round picks is a LOT to give up in order to move 3 spots.

 

What the heck would it have cost for the Bills to go from 12 to either 2 or 3?

 

Edited March 17, 2018 by YoloinOhio

[Real McClappy]

4 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

have they Ever developed a QB. Ever ? Pennington ?

no worries

Having McCown and QB X (Darnold or Rosen) is a friggin amazing starting point to reverse that.