Grade the moves!

[GunnerBill]

I haven't been around the board much this week, free agency frustratingly always coincides with the Cheltenham Horse Racing Festival.... so I have been in the beautiful Cotswolds in the South West of England most of the week winning a few hundred pounds.  But now the Festival is over and I am back and given that the initial rush of free agency has been and gone I thought it was worth ranking the big moves from the past couple of weeks at One Bills Drive.  So here goes - my assessment of each of the big moves ranked and rated from 1 (awful) to 10 (fantastic move):

 

Bills sign Vontae Davis, CB - I think this is a solid move.  The Bills defensive backs were a strength of the team last year and while I don't think Vontae Davis is still the top 10/12 corner he once was he can still play and actually gives you a bit more flex than EJ Gaines who was purely a zone guy.  Davis can still play some man too.  I expect the Bills to take a corner in the middle rounds of the draft to groom behind him but Davis gives you a plug and play vet starter - 7/10

 

Bills sign Chris Ivory, RB - Running back depth behind Shady was a real issue last year and Chris Ivory is an experienced starter who can be that change of pace back and style wise is similar to the one cut and go role that Mike Gillislee played so well behind Shady in 2016.  That said he is almost 30 and the Bills eventually need to prioritise getting younger at the position. I suspect this coupled with the lower profile re-signings of Cadet and Taiwan Jones means that running back is unlikely to be addressed in the 2018 NFL Draft - 5/10

 

Bills trade Tyrod Taylor, QB, to the Cleveland Browns for a 3rd round pick in the 2018 draft - This was a move I long talked about as making complete sense for all parties. Cleveland had nobody who you could legitimately throw out there to start an NFL game in their QB room, the Bills had a guy they need to make a clean break from and Tyrod's contract was eminently tradeable to a team with cap room (and the Browns have lots of it).  The question mark was always compensation.  I floated a 4th round pick as the ceiling for Tyrod's trade value.... but to get the 1st pick of the 3rd round makes this an absolute slam dunk of a deal - 10/10

 

Bills trade Cordy Glenn, OT, to the Cincinnati Bengals to move from #21 to #12 in the 2018 draft - I liked Cordy Glenn a lot.  I think he is, when heathy, a slam dunk top 10 left tackle in the NFL and those are hard to find.  That said his health issues with the foot have lingered for nearly 2 years now and the Bills in the meantime found a young starter who after some early shaky moments played pretty well in the left tackle slot as a rookie.  They also clearly desired to be in striking distance of the top 5 for a draft day trade up to land their Quarterback of the future. This move looks decent on paper now despite losing a player of Cordy's obvious class, but if it helps the Bills finally answer the Quarterback question then in 5 years time you could be looking back at this as a move that helped build a new era of success - 8/10

 

Bills sign Star Lotulelei, DT - Star Lotulelei is a talented defensive tackle. He isn't a flashy interior pass rusher or a guy that is going to blow up plays in the backfield but he is extremely effective at doing the dirty work in the middle and allowing his linebackers to run free and make plays. That said while he knows the scheme and has the obvious Carolina ties he isn't very "process" to me in that there have been question marks about his desire and passion to give 100% on every snap. Defensive tackle was the 2nd most glaring spot after QB that needed addressing this offseason though, and Lotulelei is an upgrade on a relatively reasonable contract - 7/10

 

Bills re-sign Kyle Williams, DT - Let's start with this - I love Kyle Williams.  He has been a tremendous Buffalo Bill and nobody deserved to be part of a team that ended the drought more than he did.  However, he is simply not the force he used to be. Kyle Williams was never a particularly effective run stopper, he was in his prime an interior penetrator and pocket disrupter and he is a process guy who plays every play like it is his last.  I also get that he is a huge locker room presence and leader in a room that just lost another of those in Eric Wood. But to my mind $6m is simply too much money for a guy I want to begin using much more situationally even when I factor in the leadership.  $4m was my ceiling I don't love this allocation of resources - 5/10.

 

Bills sign Rafael Bush, S - While the Bills starting safeties were outstanding last season the depth behind them was concerning.  Bush is not a superstar but he is a decent player with starting experience who should be able to fit the system and has played at both safety spots in the league. He needs good corner play outside him because without it he gets a little exposed as a deep centre fielder but at a cheap price this an upgrade on Colt Anderson and co - 6/10.

 

Bills sign Trent Murphy, DE - I liked Trent Murphy a lot coming out of college and while I lost sight of him slightly in the league purely on the numbers he looked to have had a breakout season in 2016 before injury struck. His PED history is a little concerning too for a team that preaches character and process but he is an upgrade to a pass rush that desperately needed a shot in the arm. The contract appears to be reasonable value too so as long as he is healthy and stays out of trouble this could be a good pickup - 7/10.

 

Bills sign AJ McCarron, QB - AJ McCarron is not the perfect vet placeholder in that his starting experience in the NFL boils down to all of 4 games but the process the Bills played in not rushing into the market for a guy to fill that 'bridge' role was perfect. If you divorce McCarron himself entirely from the process this might only be a 5 or 6 out of 10 because to me he is ultimately a back up level Quarterback, but when you consider the value of the contract and the way the Bills went about executing their plan you have to bump them up a point or two - 7/10. 

 

 

Those are my thoughts - let's hear yours!

Edited March 16, 2018 by GunnerBill

[Go-Bills]

gotta say Gunner that was a whole lot of typing! however i agree with your grades.

[ghostwriter]

AJ McCarron 10/10: I don't think he will be an all-star, but the price to risk to reward ratio is very appealing. He signed for next to nothing, he has upside as a starter, he also makes us less desperate going into the draft. This is my favorite move of the off-season, once again there is no way at all this is a bad signing, no risk in this at all.

 

Tyrod trade 8/10: A 3rd for him was genius on Beane's part, but it was a risky move. Had McCarron signed elsewhere, we would only have Nathan Peterman on our roster and that would make us very vulnerable going into the draft, but I'm glad it worked out.

 

Star Lotulelei 7/10: Fills a tremendous need for us and he is getting paid half of what Marcell Dareus was. Good signing, paid great money to a good player, but that's how free agency works, isn't it?

[K D]

Everything McBeane does is a 10/10 because it's part of the process

[Dr. Who]

There is good rb depth in this draft.  Don't understand the fixation with thirty year old running backs.  I was kind of hoping Rashaad Penny would fall far enough for us to nab him.

Overall, I like the moves.  You can't fill all the holes in one off-season.  Seems to me RT, LB, WR should be prioritized after QB is addressed.