You can only get a good QB in the top 3

[maryland-bills-fan]

John Elway	QB	Stanford	1round	1(1st pick)	Indianapolis
Todd Blackledge	QB	Penn State	1round	7(7th pick)	Kansas City
Jim Kelly	QB	Miami	1round	14(14th pick)	Buffalo
Tony Eason	QB	Illinois	1round	15(15th pick)	New England
Ken O'Brien	QB	UC Davis	1round	24(24pick)	NY Jets
Dan Marino	QB	Pittsburgh	1round	27(27pick)	Miami

....and with their second pick of the First Round, the Buffalo Bills select....

 

SEL #	TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION	SCHOOL
1	Baltimore Colts	John Elway	QB	Stanford
2	Los Angeles Rams	Eric Dickerson	RB	Southern Methodist
3	Seattle Seahawks	Curt Warner	RB	Penn State
4	Denver Broncos	Chris Hinton	G	Northwestern
5	San Diego Chargers	Billy Ray Smith Jr.	LB	Arkansas
6	Chicago Bears	Jim Covert	T	Pittsburgh
7	Kansas City Chiefs	Todd Blackledge	QB	Penn State
8	Philadelphia Eagles	Michael Haddix	RB	Mississippi State
9	Houston Oilers	Bruce Matthews	OG	USC
10	New York Giants	Terry Kinard	DB	Clemson
11	Green Bay Packers	Tim Lewis	DB	Pittsburgh
12	Buffalo Bills	Tony Hunter	TE	Notre Dame
13	Detroit Lions	James Jones	RB	Florida
14	Buffalo Bills	Jim Kelly	QB	Miami (Fla.)
15	New England Patriots	Tony Eason	QB	Illinois
16	Atlanta Falcons	Mike Pitts	DT	Alabama
17	St. Louis Cardinals	Leonard Smith	DB	McNeese State
18	Chicago Bears	Willie Gault	WR	Tennessee
19	Minnesota Vikings	Joey Browner	DB	USC
20	San Diego Chargers	Gary Anderson	RB	Arkansas
21	Pittsburgh Steelers	Gabe Rivera	NT	Texas Tech
22	San Diego Chargers	Gill Byrd	DB	San Jose State
23	Dallas Cowboys	Jim Jeffcoat	DE	Arizona State
24	New York Jets	Ken O'Brien	QB	California-Davis
25	Cincinnati Bengals	Dave Rimington	C	Nebraska
26	Los Angeles Raiders	Don Mosebar	C	USC
27	Miami Dolphins	Dan Marino	QB	Pittsburgh
28	Washington Redskins	Darrell Green	DB	Texas A&M - Kingsville

[NewEra]

are suggesting we should just stay where we are and draft a QB with our the 22nd pick?

it was a great draft even if you take out the QBs.

[Steve Billieve]

I'm not ready to try and figure out what he is suggesting.

But my initial impression is that he is merely confused.

[LeGOATski]

We could get a good QB at 12?

 

Any one of the top 4 could potentially be there

[ColdFront_USAF]

This draft was probably the best quarterback class in the history of football. This is the only time a draft like this has happened. Pointing to this as an argument is like pointing to Brady and saying we should take our guy in the 6th round. It only happened once. 

 

Not to mention, in the last 30 plus years teams have got much better at scouting quarterbacks. That doesn't mean they always get it right, but when you have guys projected to be future stars at the position, they go top 5 at the least. Sure we could wait at 12 or even take one at 22, but the consensus top guys will be long gone. I think there's a reason they are considered the top guys in a strong class. 

 

[maryland-bills-fan]

I am thinking that all the shrill demands to move up to the top 3 are panic driven.  We could just stay at #12 and see what comes to us.   Moving to #2 would cost us at least:

#12 and #22 in the first round ,

#21 in the second round   (56 overall)

#1 in the third round  (65th overall)

 

leaving us with #2 in the first round,    overall #56 in the second round,   and #96 overall in the third round.  That is not very much to rebuild the offensive line, the wide receivers and the linebackers.

 

If we stay at #12 we would have 5 picks in the first three rounds:  overall #22,   #53,   #56,   #54  &  #96.    That is enough to rebuild these positions.  Realize that 5-6 high draft pick veteran QB;s have been picked up by other teams this year, so a few teams are probably not going to picking QB's before us.   Even in the first round, QB's are still a crap-shoot.  I think that it is a wiser strategy to be sure of restocking the weak positions and also taking a slightly less good shot at a QB.

 

Edited March 15, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan

[ChevyVanMiller]

19 minutes ago, NewEra said:

are suggesting we should just stay where we are and draft a QB with our the 22nd pick?

it was a great draft even if you take out the QBs.

Only if we draft a bust TE at 12 first -proven process.

[maryland-bills-fan]

14 minutes ago, Steve Billieve said:

I'm not ready to try and figure out what he is suggesting.

But my initial impression is that he is merely confused.

 

Gee, you can't understand that in a good QB year, you can still get the best QB your team has even seen at pick #14 or a Dan Marino near the bottom of the 1st round.   .......  You can't understand that the Bills selected a tight end before a QB in that same draft?

[Peace Frog]

Do what you have to do, I don't care if it gets freaky, but do what you have to in order to draft Josh Rosen.

[Steve Billieve]

11 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 

Gee, you can't understand that in a good QB year, you can still get the best QB your team has even seen at pick #14 or a Dan Marino near the bottom of the 1st round.   .......  You can't understand that the Bills selected a tight end before a QB in that same draft?

 

I'm still not really sure what you are saying.

What QB do you want to draft at 12? or 22?

Edited March 15, 2018 by Steve Billieve

[ndirish1978]

We might as well run the Wishbone I guess. Worked in the past should work out right?

[Steve Billieve]

I agree its a good QB year, I guess, but do you think Darnold, Rosen, or Mayfield are going to fall to 12?

 

If Darnold and Rosen are gone in the top 4 are you willing to take the chance that Mayfield falls?

[LeGOATski]

2 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

Do what you have to do, I don't care if it gets freaky, but do what you have to in order to draft Josh Rosen.

Based on his combine performance and questions regarding his attitude, even HE could fall to us at 12. 

[Steve Billieve]

You never know what will happen.  Top 3 overall QBs have a much higher success rate than those late in the first or after.  We've set the board to draft a QB high, which I guess is why this is a thread at all.

Do we change the game plan now?

[maryland-bills-fan]

3 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

Do what you have to do, I don't care if it gets freaky, but do what you have to in order to draft Josh Rosen.

 

I wish predicting the best NFL QB was an exact science- but then it wouldn't be as much fun. Most people think that Darnold  is the best prospect, but I can see somebody liking Rosen more.   Here is a nice article from last week which gives a good description of each QB and their strengths and weaknesses.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2018/03/07/2018-nfl-draft-ranking-the-top-10-quarterbacks/?utm_term=.fad976ddda3c

 

Nobody really knows how these will translate into the professional ranks.  The skill and speed is another planet from even the best colleges.  In college, the rookie QB only saw one or a few pro-calibre players every game and could avoid them. It is a different planet, when the weakest NFL DB is better that the best DB, that he was trying to beat in college.  It is not an exact science.   By the way, Rosen would be available at #12 if that Washington Compost article is right. They have them listed in the order Darrold,,,Mayfield,,,,Allen,,,,, Jackson,,,,,Rosen,,,,, Rudolph,,,,Falk,,,,,White,,,,,etc.    The 5th QB should be there at our #12.

11 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

We might as well run the Wishbone I guess. Worked in the past should work out right?

It worked in college for a while until teams learned how to defend against it.  You don't see it in college anymore.  It was never run in the pro's.  Defenders are too fast to the sideline in the pro's because they have the cream of the college players.

[Steve Billieve]

I would be surprised if this regime overreacted.  Once QBs start to go they'll probably go quick.  Lets say Darnold goes in the top two.  How much do you like the next two QBs on your board?  How much do you like the next three?  The Bills have set everything up to draft a QB high.  They've gotten an enormous amount of value positioning themselves in that way.  They got rid of possibly the best QB they've had since Kelly, they took the last ufa at the position for a bargain.  Who is this 5th QB your happy with?

And lets say your 4th QB goes at 7-9 what do you do?

Depth of Class does not denote value imo.

Especially at QB.

[maryland-bills-fan]

Steve Billieve

Steve Billieve wrote   <q> "You never know what will happen.  Top 3 overall QBs have a much higher success rate than those late in the first or after.  We've set the board to draft a QB high, which I guess is why this is a thread at all.

Do we change the game plan now?  </q>

 

I don't know what the game plan was, although a lot of people think they do know.   A good manager will have an up-front plan, but should be able to take advantage of changes in the situation. A military axiom is " No plan survives contact with the enemy".  What IS the gameplan?

 

Version #1 (most obvious):  The Bills were planning on tanking in 2017, so they would draft high and  get a franchsie QB in the 2018 draft.  They screwed up and got pick #21 and have been trying to claw their way back to the top of the draft.  They traded away good players (Watkins) to get more draft picks. They desperately traded away their (often) starting left offensive tackle to get a #12 so they might trade up to a top 3 (5?) pick.

 

Alternate Version #2.   The Bills worked in the off season to clear high salary cap, fairly good players in order to stockpile picks to rebuild the team. This includes a shot at a superior QB as well.   They have been wheeling and dealing and the last guy out was the LOF to bump up one of the draft picks to #12. They will draft a QB with that draft and will get a good one.  The rest of the draft (5 more picks in the first three rounds) will be used to restock the offensive line (center!),  linebackers and wide receivers.   They got McCarron as a two year stopgap, to give time for that rookie QB to develop.  They don't have to draft an immediate NFL ready guy who will start in game 1.

 

I think Alternate Version #2 is what they are going with.   By, the way, if we go with plan Version #1,  I will HATE seeing the 5 players we could have drafted beating the Bills in games for the next 7 years.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 15, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan
spelign

[Steve Billieve]

Yea, I'm sure they'll be flexible.  Chances are more than 1 QB will be gone in the first 5 picks.  If you're suggesting waiting to until pick 12, what do you do at that point if you only have 3 QBs you rate highly, or what do you do if you only have 4?  Lets say a few picks later at 7 or 9.  Going into the season with  McCarron and Peterman sounds like a pretty bad plan.  You can't just draft whomever, you have to actually like them.  What if the Bills don't believe in Allen or Jackson?

 

All you seem to be saying is there might be value for a QB at 12.  So what?  We've done nothing to take advantage of that.  We've done everything NOT to take advantage of that.  Which is fine we've gotten great value from Tyrod and McCarron, and we've also backed ourselves into a corner.  We should go up and get the QB we believe in.

[JM57]

44 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Realize that 5-6 high draft pick veteran QB;s have been picked up by other teams this year, so a few teams are probably not going to picking QB's before us.

 

Not a single deal signed or acquired by a QB needy team between would preclude those teams from taking a QB. Every single one was short term deal. Let's revisit.

Browns (#1/4) - Tyrod Taylor: 1 year, $10 million

Broncos (#5) - Case Keenum: 2 years, $36 million

Jets (#6) - Josh McCown: 1 year, $10 million and Teddy Bridgewater: 1 year, up to $15 million

Cardinals (#15) - Sam Bradford: 1 year, $20 million

 

Look at those long term deals! Sitting on your hands and waiting to see what comes to you is a surefire way to have other teams who have the same desire for a QB to jump you.

[oldmanfan]

We have not backed ourselves into a corner. We have flexibility to move way up, we can stay where we are.  We don't know what their board looks like for the QBs in the draft.