Wsam4031 Posted March 13, 2018 Posted March 13, 2018 23 minutes ago, JOSH HUFF said: There are more than several good QB's in this draft, take a shot with Bradford. Maybe draft DT Vita Vea at 12 or top OL, LB. Buffalo's DT's VEA, Lotulelei with Williams, Washington rotating in. If not Vea look at Harrison Phillips, Payne or Hurst at 22, if they last that long. Do you feel there is a Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers in this Draft? Hard to say, I look at Rosen, Allen & Darnolds numbers and I am not wowed. Are you? Yes, I am wowed at Mayfield's numbers that stack up for 3 years and don't care that he is 6'1", he is an inch taller than Drew Bree's. My point is with so many upgrades needed DT, DE, LB, OT, WR, CB, young RB (back up) and yes QB, but I don't want to through a rookie QB in there right away no matter who they pick. There are QB's like Mason Rudolph, Mike White and Luke Falk that I think are going to be solid QB's with some seasoning. With 5 picks in the top 65, Buffalo could set themselves up for many years down the road. What are your thoughts? my god if we stay there and take an OL at 12 after trading Cordy I will cut out my own heart with a spoon and eat it! that's something the Bills of the past 17 years would've done!
NewEraBills Posted March 13, 2018 Posted March 13, 2018 At this point man, while I generally love draft picks and think the team could do well to fill positions, at this point, we've come this far, we might as well finish it. Don't leave the job undone or don't do a half-ass job. Finish the damn thing and get the QB. Let everything else work itself out.
RochesterRob Posted March 13, 2018 Posted March 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Tolstoy said: I am only repeating what others here have said, but we need a franchise QB. Period. Loading up on all the other positions without locking down a franchise QB is like outfitting your car with all sorts of items but having a poor engine. It has been 20 years now that we have had occasional great defenses, occasional great running games, occasional great special teams, occasional great wideouts (though that has been fewer and far between because of the QB issue), etc., but where has that gotten us? Yes, it is a bit of a crap shoot, since something like 50% or so of QB's taken in the top 10 are busts. But it is a crap shoot we have to play. The Patriots are a case in point--they have had a great QB and everything else simply doesn't matter as much, since the QB can bail you out of so many problems. Result: almost every year they contend for the SB. It's one thing to need a franchise QB and it is completely another thing to know that one exists in this draft by the measures the pro's use. Beane will know how to approach draft day and he does not need to run everything by the board here like we are Terry Pegula. If Beane just sees the top prospects as just that versus being complete NFL ready QB's then we have to trust his judgement. In the end that will not matter as we all know there is anything but a consensus on any player so the whining will be there whether Beane moves up to get Darnold, Rosen, or waits for one QB to fall to 7,8 or where we currently sit at 12.
mjt328 Posted March 13, 2018 Posted March 13, 2018 (edited) We could land the next Ray Lewis at #12, and that pick would still be a massive failure. When scouting a college player (especially a QB), it's not all about the "numbers" and trying to find a guy with "wow" statistics. It's all about building an overall picture on a prospect, then making an educated guess on how that translates to the next level. If this year's QB Class doesn't work for you, I don't know what you are waiting for. The last perfect/flawless prospect to enter the NFL was Andrew Luck in 2012. Before that, you are probably looking at Peyton Manning in 1998. Before that, probably John Elway in 1983. By that trend, it will probably be 2027 before we see another QB prospect of that caliber. They just don't come along very often. When you compare this year's QB Class against others, it's clear this one is pretty good. Against last year, I would guess that Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen would be rated above anyone in the 2013, 2014, 2016 or 2017 drafts. To me, it's a toss-up between those guys and Jameis Winston. That's just looking at the past 5 seasons. If you would rather have an extra LB or DT (or whatever) instead of one of the better QB prospects in the last 5 years - then I'm glad you aren't running our front office. Edited March 13, 2018 by mjt328 2
brianthomas Posted March 13, 2018 Posted March 13, 2018 (edited) After the recent trading of Glenn it should be 100% obvious to most that we are moving up in this draft to get our QB. And with the acquisition of additional picks, we can move up without mortgaging the entire draft. We'll still have 5 other picks to spend on players & we'll take a shot at our franchise QB. After spending the past 20 years with only drafting a QB 3 times in the 1st round, the status quo is no longer an option. These guys have a plan & they are rebuilding this team methodically & piece by piece. When all is said & done theres never any guarantee the QB you pick is gonna work out, but i dont think this bunch is gonna pick a JP Losman or EJ Manuel. I hate to say it but trust the process. Edited March 13, 2018 by brianthomas wrong word used
Misterbluesky Posted March 13, 2018 Posted March 13, 2018 44 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: Movin' on up! If these top,young,no miss future Hall Of Fame QB's are going in the top 5..why would any one of those teams trade out?
26CornerBlitz Posted March 13, 2018 Posted March 13, 2018 Just now, Misterbluesky said: If these top,young,no miss future Hall Of Fame QB's are going in the top 5..why would any one of those teams trade out? Because there's uncertainty whether they can throw in the snow and cold.
Misterbluesky Posted March 13, 2018 Posted March 13, 2018 Just now, 26CornerBlitz said: Because there's uncertainty whether they can throw in the snow and cold. That and more.
Batman1876 Posted March 13, 2018 Posted March 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, mjt328 said: We could land the next Ray Lewis at #12, and that pick would still be a massive failure. When scouting a college player (especially a QB), it's not all about the "numbers" and trying to find a guy with "wow" statistics. It's all about building an overall picture on a prospect, then making an educated guess on how that translates to the next level. If this year's QB Class doesn't work for you, I don't know what you are waiting for. The last perfect/flawless prospect to enter the NFL was Andrew Luck in 2012. Before that, you are probably looking at Peyton Manning in 1998. Before that, probably John Elway in 1983. By that trend, it will probably be 2027 before we see another QB prospect of that caliber. They just don't come along very often. When you compare this year's QB Class against others, it's clear this one is pretty good. Against last year, I would guess that Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen would be rated above anyone in the 2013, 2014, 2016 or 2017 drafts. To me, it's a toss-up between those guys and Jameis Winston. That's just looking at the past 5 seasons. If you would rather have an extra LB or DT (or whatever) instead of one of the better QB prospects in the last 5 years - then I'm glad you aren't running our front office. Peyton wasn't a can't miss prospect. He was hit with the "cant win the big game" "choke artist" label. So once every 25 year a can't miss guy comes along, he's sure to be taken 1st over all and the team siting at 1 won't trade that pick for anything. In other words don't expect it to happen. 4 minutes ago, Misterbluesky said: If these top,young,no miss future Hall Of Fame QB's are going in the top 5..why would any one of those teams trade out? Because one team fired their coach for benching Eli and the other has Luck.
mjt328 Posted March 13, 2018 Posted March 13, 2018 17 minutes ago, Misterbluesky said: If these top,young,no miss future Hall Of Fame QB's are going in the top 5..why would any one of those teams trade out? Again. It's not about being a "can't miss" future Hall of Famer. There is no such thing. Even Andrew Luck has been a relative disappointment (mostly due to injuries). If you are waiting for a QB prospect without flaws, you will be sitting around forever. 1
BillsVet Posted March 13, 2018 Posted March 13, 2018 (edited) 52 minutes ago, NewEra said: We’ll likely never have the ammo to go get a top qb (if McD is a success). Go get the QB this year. They would not accumulate 6 picks in the top 100 to merely sit at 12 and select from what's left over. There is a plan and they will execute it. 4 minutes ago, mjt328 said: Again. It's not about being a "can't miss" future Hall of Famer. There is no such thing. Even Andrew Luck has been a relative disappointment (mostly due to injuries). If you are waiting for a QB prospect without flaws, you will be sitting around forever. I'm thankful that McBeane aren't as weak-kneed as some posters here who are scared of anything bad happening with a QB. It's still amazing that so many people were so on-board and defended Whaley trading up to take "can't-miss" Watkins but are scared to death of trading up for a QB. Edited March 13, 2018 by BillsVet
mjt328 Posted March 13, 2018 Posted March 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, BillsVet said: I'm thankful that McBeane aren't as weak-kneed as some posters here who are scared of anything bad happening with a QB. It's still amazing that so many people were so on-board and defended Whaley trading up to take "can't-miss" Watkins but are scared to death of trading up for a QB. You've pinpointed it exactly. Picking a QB in the first round is never the safest option. If you fail and get someone like EJ Manuel, it probably means 3-4 years of losing, followed by a start-over in the front office/coaching staff. If you play it safe, it usually means having a "talented roster" constantly pulled down by mediocre veteran QB play. But if you succeed, your team is set for 10-15 years with a franchise QB. 1
JinVA Posted March 13, 2018 Posted March 13, 2018 I am out of the loop. Where did the 12th pick come from?
MAJBobby Posted March 13, 2018 Posted March 13, 2018 1 hour ago, JOSH HUFF said: There are more than several good QB's in this draft, take a shot with Bradford. Maybe draft DT Vita Vea at 12 or top OL, LB. Buffalo's DT's VEA, Lotulelei with Williams, Washington rotating in. If not Vea look at Harrison Phillips, Payne or Hurst at 22, if they last that long. Do you feel there is a Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers in this Draft? Hard to say, I look at Rosen, Allen & Darnolds numbers and I am not wowed. Are you? Yes, I am wowed at Mayfield's numbers that stack up for 3 years and don't care that he is 6'1", he is an inch taller than Drew Bree's. My point is with so many upgrades needed DT, DE, LB, OT, WR, CB, young RB (back up) and yes QB, but I don't want to through a rookie QB in there right away no matter who they pick. There are QB's like Mason Rudolph, Mike White and Luke Falk that I think are going to be solid QB's with some seasoning. With 5 picks in the top 65, Buffalo could set themselves up for many years down the road. What are your thoughts? My thoughts GET TO 2 DRAFT ROSEN GET TO 2 DRAFT ROSEN
HiddenInLight Posted March 13, 2018 Posted March 13, 2018 My thoughts are this: The bills have not won a playoff game since Jim Kelley was here. The bills have appeared in only a few playoff games since then. What is the common denominator? The fact that they have had only bridge QB's and have not seriously done what it takes to find Kelly's successor. We can't just keep signing these Journeyman type guys or crossing our fingers and hoping one drops to us. Move up and get our guy. If that doesn't work, keep doing it until we do. You need to actively create your own success in the NFL. Don't just sit there and try to let it fall into your lap. That's how we missed out on guys like Aaron Rodgers and Ben Rothlesberger.
Tyrod's friend Posted March 13, 2018 Posted March 13, 2018 19 minutes ago, mjt328 said: You've pinpointed it exactly. Picking a QB in the first round is never the safest option. If you fail and get someone like EJ Manuel, it probably means 3-4 years of losing, followed by a start-over in the front office/coaching staff. If you play it safe, it usually means having a "talented roster" constantly pulled down by mediocre veteran QB play. But if you succeed, your team is set for 10-15 years with a franchise QB. What makes everyone think that you need to move up and take a QB? Since 2013, the best QB in the draft was not taken first. In most cases, the team didn't move up to get him (although Philly did move up to take Carson Wentz, still to this point the best total numbers for his draft year arguably belong to a 4th round pick). Most often the best QB was taken down the line. Carr, Prescott, Watson, even Geno Smith was the best guy in his draft and he was taken in the 2nd round. In a year where the consensus seems to be "they all have warts", it seems the reasonable thing to do would be to position yourself properly and let things play out. Just sayin'. 2
HiddenInLight Posted March 13, 2018 Posted March 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said: What makes everyone think that you need to move up and take a QB? Since 2013, the best QB in the draft was not taken first. In most cases, the team didn't move up to get him (although Philly did move up to take Carson Wentz, still to this point the best total numbers for his draft year arguably belong to a 4th round pick). Most often the best QB was taken down the line. Carr, Prescott, Watson, even Geno Smith was the best guy in his draft and he was taken in the 2nd round. In a year where the consensus seems to be "they all have warts", it seems the reasonable thing to do would be to position yourself properly and let things play out. Just sayin'. Notice that many of the failed QBs go to bad teams. It's almost like a pattern..... You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. If you need a QB you need to get one in this league.
Tyrod's friend Posted March 13, 2018 Posted March 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, HiddenInLight said: Notice that many of the failed QBs go to bad teams. It's almost like a pattern..... You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. If you need a QB you need to get one in this league. Well, there is no arguing that if you need a QB you should go get one so I'm not sure where you are going with that statement. But moves made out of desperation are rarely strong plays. This is a good, not great, class of QBs. Moving up to #5 or #3 or #1 doesn't get you a clear cut, no-****-nobody's-arguing better choice. And there are huge, huge opportunity costs to move up. End of the day, this management has been moving like a surgeon so I'm not concerned one way or the other. So EoD, I guess. Cheers. 2 hours ago, JOSH HUFF said: There are more than several good QB's in this draft, take a shot with Bradford. Maybe draft DT Vita Vea at 12 or top OL, LB. Buffalo's DT's VEA, Lotulelei with Williams, Washington rotating in. If not Vea look at Harrison Phillips, Payne or Hurst at 22, if they last that long. Do you feel there is a Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers in this Draft? Hard to say, I look at Rosen, Allen & Darnolds numbers and I am not wowed. Are you? Yes, I am wowed at Mayfield's numbers that stack up for 3 years and don't care that he is 6'1", he is an inch taller than Drew Bree's. My point is with so many upgrades needed DT, DE, LB, OT, WR, CB, young RB (back up) and yes QB, but I don't want to through a rookie QB in there right away no matter who they pick. There are QB's like Mason Rudolph, Mike White and Luke Falk that I think are going to be solid QB's with some seasoning. With 5 picks in the top 65, Buffalo could set themselves up for many years down the road. What are your thoughts? Mostly I'd agree. But I think this too: most of the bad moves happen when you have management acting like their hair is on fire and they are making decisions on draft day. It's awfully, awfully clear that we have a team in place that knows exactly what they are doing. It might not work out whatever they do and I'm fine with that. Personally I have a hard on for Mason Rudolph and if we don't take him at 12 he's gone to Baltimore or Miami or San Diego or New Orleans. I digress. We're at 12 so they can move up if that's what's necessary at the time. #BeanesGotBalls 1
HiddenInLight Posted March 13, 2018 Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Tyrod's friend said: Well, there is no arguing that if you need a QB you should go get one so I'm not sure where you are going with that statement. But moves made out of desperation are rarely strong plays. This is a good, not great, class of QBs. Moving up to #5 or #3 or #1 doesn't get you a clear cut, no-****-nobody's-arguing better choice. And there are huge, huge opportunity costs to move up. End of the day, this management has been moving like a surgeon so I'm not concerned one way or the other. So EoD, I guess. Cheers. I don't think anybody is denying that there is an opportunity cost to moving up, but remember there is an opportunity cost to staying where you are as well. Ben Rothlesberger to Pittsburgh while we get JP Lossman. That was opportunity cost. On the other side of the coin, Aaron Rodgers to Green Bay was the cost of the trade for JP Lossman. That being said, there has been a HUGE opportunity cost to not getting our guy since Kelly left. People will only care about oppotunity cost if we don't get our guy, or if our guy busts. I bet there aren't many people talking about opportunity cost on the Eagles forums. I'm sure they are quite happy with Wentz. Same with the Falcons. They are probably happy with the opportunity cost for them to move up and get their WR. In a year like this, we almost have no choice but to move up. Especially with Tyrod gone and the top tier of QB's no longer available to us. Especially with our Cap situation.
JOSH HUFF Posted March 13, 2018 Author Posted March 13, 2018 Mayfield resume: Completion percentage & td's to int's Very impressive!! OR is he Johnny Manziel. Passing Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate Career Overall 1026 1497 68.5 14607 9.8 10.6 131 30 175.4 Texas Tech 218 340 64.1 2315 6.8 6.3 12 9 127.7 Oklahoma 808 1157 69.8 12292 10.6 11.9 119 21 189. *2013 Texas Tech Big 12 QB 8 218 340 64.1 2315 6.8 6.3 12 9 127.7 *2015 Oklahoma Big 12 JR QB 13 269 395 68.1 3700 9.4 10.4 36 7 173.3 *2016 Oklahoma Big 12 JR QB 13 254 358 70.9 3965 11.1 12.3 40 8 196.4 *2017 Oklahoma Big 12 SR QB 14 285 404 70.5 4627 11.5 12.9 43 6 198.9
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