Sammy Watwins to KC on a 3 Year Deal

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

The NextGenStats do not support your opinion on Goff and the deep ball.  He also throws into tight coverage less than all but 4 other qualifying QBs (out of 41)

 

Deep ball isn't necessarily thrown in tight coverage. 

 

Next Gen also tell you that Completed Air Yards "how far the ball is being thrown downfield" Goff is slightly higher than TT.

 

 

Edited March 13, 2018 by Mr. WEO

[BillsFan130]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

If he had signed with SF, I would take the over on 1200 yards and 10TDs as he would be the focal point there and I think he could eclipse 1400 yards with Jimmy G in SF personally.  In KC, they have a young QB and a stud dual threat RB, so I dont expect them to be as pass heavy as Jimmy G led Niners will be.  Plus they got great weapons with Kelce and Hill.  

 

So I think a more reasonable expectation for Sammy signing to be a big success this year (assuming Mahomes doesn't totally flop as a WR isnt going to have a good year if a QB cant get him the ball) is in the ball park of 75rec, 1100 yards and 6 to 8 TD's.  There is still only one football to go around all those playmakers with an unproven QB to get it to them all.

 

Kelce is a big Redzone threat and so is hunt both running and receiving.  Sammy is too, but he wont be the only focal point in the Redzone like he would be more in SF.  Plus Hill rips long TD's too, so I think his TD expectation will drop just because that offense has so many scoring threats.  And having Sammy will make the jobs of Kelce, Hunt, and Hill easier too because the D needs to account for everyone as they can all hurt you bad.  

 

KC should be fun to watch next year unless Mahomes blows.

I don’t disagree with what you’re saying, but don’t you think the Chiefs want at least 75, 1200 and 8 if they are paying him 16 per year?

 

Thats solid number 1 receiver money and they must obviously think he’s going to produce at a very high level .

 

If he rips it I will shut up about Watkins and will eat crow, but I don’t think he’s going to get those numbers I listed above.

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

I was referring to their stats.  Passes over 20 and 40 yards.

 

Most people incorrectly use that stat or the wrong stat.  Rams had a lot of short passes that went over those lengths which is different than throwing the ball that far in the air before it lands with a WR. 

 

I watched every Rams game as its my number 2 team and had several Bills on it and they always play here in LA after the Bills play.  I got as much Rams gear as I do Bills gear now that they are back here in LA.

 

I can say this...Goff is no Wentz.  McVay is very good at his job and played to his strengths and tried to avoid his weaknesses.  And he is not a good deep ball thrower which often have way too much air on them or the WR needs to make big adjustments.  He hit a lot of guys who were wide open on blown coverage, but he is not good at making covered deep ball passes as they are often way off the mark.  

 

Kid is young, so plenty of upside, but he made his bread and butter on short to intermediate routes.  Which is fine, and I think smart by the coach to build his confidence up and accuracy.  But when he threw down field it often was not pretty unless the WR was running free which Rams did a good job getting those opportunities with ingenuity of McVay and all the weapons they had.  

[KollegeStudnet]

6 hours ago, H2o said:

And if Watkins just got $16,000,000 per then I bet Beckham gets his $20,000,000.

That's a lot of pizza and cocaine money.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

51 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Journeyman WR who is 24 years old and yet just got paid $16M per year?

 

Geezus the nonsense of our fan base somehow always still shocks me.  Sammy is a legit #1 WR, the NFL knows it, DC's know it when they doubled Sammy every game and put their best corners on him all season this year, and depth charts always know it.

 

Butt hurt Bills fans who didn't like the trade up now GROSSLY over exaggerate him to make them feel right about not liking the trade up.  But I assure you, the rest of the NFL does NOT agree with you.  Just like people here said NO ONE would trade for Tyrod, yet multiple teams were interested.  They said NO ONE would give more than a 7th rounder, yet they got a premium draft pick.  

 

The absurdity that people here go to try and falsely prove their never ending negativity gets old.  

 

...that refrain should be repeated 10 times daily.....am a bit surprised at Sammy's deal.....

[26CornerBlitz]

 

Yikes is right!

[Mr. WEO]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Most people incorrectly use that stat or the wrong stat.  Rams had a lot of short passes that went over those lengths which is different than throwing the ball that far in the air before it lands with a WR. 

 

I watched every Rams game as its my number 2 team and had several Bills on it and they always play here in LA after the Bills play.  I got as much Rams gear as I do Bills gear now that they are back here in LA.

 

I can say this...Goff is no Wentz.  McVay is very good at his job and played to his strengths and tried to avoid his weaknesses.  And he is not a good deep ball thrower which often have way too much air on them or the WR needs to make big adjustments.  He hit a lot of guys who were wide open on blown coverage, but he is not good at making covered deep ball passes as they are often way off the mark.  

 

Kid is young, so plenty of upside, but he made his bread and butter on short to intermediate routes.  Which is fine, and I think smart by the coach to build his confidence up and accuracy.  But when he threw down field it often was not pretty unless the WR was running free which Rams did a good job getting those opportunities with ingenuity of McVay and all the weapons they had.  

 

 

I'm not equating Goff to Wentz, at all. 

 

I'm sayin that the notion that Goff was holding him back because he "doesn't throw the long ball", like TT or even Orton is not a valid argument.

[H2o]

6 minutes ago, KollegeStudnet said:

That's a lot of pizza and cocaine money.

Pizza, weed, cocaine, and skripper money 

[Alphadawg7]

11 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

I don’t disagree with what you’re saying, but don’t you think the Chiefs want at least 75, 1200 and 8 if they are paying him 16 per year?

 

Thats solid number 1 receiver money and they must obviously think he’s going to produce at a very high level .

 

If he rips it I will shut up about Watkins and will eat crow, but I don’t think he’s going to get those numbers I listed above.

 

I get what you are saying, and they are fair and reasonable points.  

 

But my answer to that is no.  What the Chiefs want are wins.  They dont care who puts up what stat, they paid Sammy $16M a year to make the offense better, not to be a force fed stat machine.  And Andy Reid has never done that.  

 

Sammy significantly opens up this offense.  Hill is small and not a true #1.  He is a guy whose stats are reliant on big plays, not a guy they can lean on for key first downs just because he doesn't have the size to do so.  Kelce is a TE, but because they dont have a legit #1 they often double Kelce in those situations.  Then you got Hunt, but once teams started stacking the box to stop Hunt, KC went away from the run game as much and were forced to try and win throwing.  But if Hill doesn't get the big play, the Chiefs offense went stagnant and they had a skid until they found a way to get Hunt going again.  

 

Them adding Sammy isnt about having one guy be a stat machine.  They have one of the best 2 TE's in football.  They have what looks like a future top 5 RB (need to see his sophomore season to really know, one year doesn't make a career), and one of the most explosive weapons in the NFL in Hill.  What they want is production from all of them, being one dimensional is not how you win in the NFL.

 

Not to mention, KC isnt going to try and put too much on their kid QB out the gate either.  They want to use him like the Rams used Goff...balanced attack, build the kid up.  Hunt is a similar player to Gurley...power, explosion, and can catch.  Take the pressure off the kid.  Look at how good the Rams offense was, yet no one had 1000 yards receiving, or even 800 yards.  

 

Its not about his stat box, its about scoring points and winning games.  So no, I dont think there is some predetermined stat line for Sammy unless there are injuries to the other weapons and they lean on Sammy.  75 rec and 1100 yards would be over 14ypc, I am pretty sure they will be quite thrilled with that to go along with good seasons from Kelce, Hill, and Hunt.  

Edited March 13, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[Kelly the Dog]

It's almost as if Kansas City knows talent when they see a bunch of it. 

[Big Turk]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Alex Smith was the best deep ball passer in the league last year:

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-most-accurate-deep-ball-passers-in-2017

 

It is a near certainty that their deep passing game will not be as good this year. Which makes the decision to trade Smith and force Mahomes into the starting role all the more baffling.

 

Its the Tyrod argument...the ball doesnt go downfield as much as it should...saying you complete 80% of your passes because the ball never travels more than 5 yards downfield leaves out the context of why.

 

Stats are meaningless without context. In this context Smith didnt throw the ball downfield as much as they would have liked him to or when shots were available.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

I'm not equating Goff to Wentz, at all. 

 

I'm sayin that the notion that Goff was holding him back because he "doesn't throw the long ball", like TT or even Orton is not a valid argument.

 

But I again disagree with that.  Sammy was open a lot and never got a ball thrown his way, that just was not the Rams offense.  They strictly used Sammy as mostly just a deep threat, a Mike Wallace type route tree.  Goff strength was not the deep pass and McVay designed a brilliant offense to cater to the underneath, short, and intermediate routes with a plethora of weapons to do so.  

 

You cant catch what isnt thrown...just like many people here were yelling throw the ball at Tyrod all season, I was yelling throw the ball to Sammy all year because he was so often open, but Goff wasn't even looking his direction and just took all the open easy throws underneath by design.  Which was brilliant by McVay, but people here talk like Sammy couldn't get open or dropped everything.  

 

As a WR you can only catch what is thrown to you.  

[Buffalo Barbarian]

7 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

3 years, $48M, $16M a year

 

Those of you that said he’d get less than $10M a year its time to eat crow...

Ha ha, thank you. I’ve already come to be told I was right. Ha ha

 

Damn, that's a lot of money for him!

 

 

[BillsFan130]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I get what you are saying, and they are fair and reasonable points.  

 

But my answer to that is no.  What the Chiefs want are wins.  They dont care who puts up what stat, they paid Sammy $16M a year to make the offense better, not to be a force fed stat machine.  And Andy Reid has never done that.  

 

Sammy significantly opens up this offense.  Hill is small and not a true #1.  He is a guy whose stats are reliant on big plays, not a guy they can lean on for key first downs just because he doesn't have the size to do so.  Kelce is a TE, but because they dont have a legit #1 they often double Kelce in those situations.  Then you got Hunt, but once teams started stacking the box to stop Hunt, KC went away from the run game as much and were forced to try and win throwing.  But if Hill doesn't get the big play, the Chiefs offense went stagnant and they had a skid until they found a way to get Hunt going again.  

 

Them adding Sammy isnt about having one guy be a stat machine.  They have one of the best 2 TE's in football.  They have what looks like a future top 5 RB (need to see his sophomore season to really know, one year doesn't make a career), and one of the most explosive weapons in the NFL in Hill.  What they want is production from all of them, being one dimensional is not how you win in the NFL.

 

Not to mention, KC isnt going to try and put too much on their kid QB out the gate either.  They want to use him like the Rams used Goff...balanced attack, build the kid up.  Hunt is a similar player to Gurley...power, explosion, and can catch.  Take the pressure off the kid.  Look at how good the Rams offense was, yet no one had 1000 yards receiving, or even 800 yards.  

 

Its not about his stat box, its about scoring points and winning games.  So no, I dont think there is some predetermined stat line for Sammy unless there are injuries to the other weapons and they lean on Sammy.  75 rec and 1100 yards would be over 14ypc, I am pretty sure they will be quite thrilled with that to go along with good seasons from Kelce, Hill, and Hunt.  

Like always, good post even though I don’t necessarily agree 100 percent on this one.

 

He should make their offence better as he’s a descent player. No argument there.

 

But for 16 mil per year, i personally think that’s a lot of money to spend on a receiver if he doesn’t produce big numbers and make the offence a lot better at the same time.

 

Only time will tell. Either way, their offence definitely got better today by adding Watkins.

 

How much better in relation to that big cap hit will be the question.

[H2o]

6 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

It's almost as if Kansas City knows talent when they see a bunch of it. 

What have they won exactly? The offseason?

[Teddy KGB]

Stud 

 

 

[HappyDays]

8 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Its the Tyrod argument...the ball doesnt go downfield as much as it should...saying you complete 80% of your passes because the ball never travels more than 5 yards downfield leaves out the context of why.

 

Alex Smith ranked 1st in total yards on deep throws, 1st in adjusted completion percentage, and 1st in passer rating. He was 11th in percentage of throws that went deep. He also ranked 2nd in total YPA on all throws. If the Chiefs plan to somehow push the ball downfield more than he did they're in for a rude awakening.

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, billsfan11 said:

Like always, good post even though I don’t necessarily agree 100 percent on this one.

 

He should make their offence better as he’s a descent player. No argument there.

 

But for 16 mil per year, i personally think that’s a lot of money to spend on a receiver if he doesn’t produce big numbers and make the offence a lot better at the same time.

 

Only time will tell. Either way, their offence definitely got better today by adding Watkins.

 

How much better in relation to that big cap hit will be the question.

 

All good, and as always I enjoy the discussion with you even if our opinions dont align totally on this one.  After all, they are just opinions

 

I think it was you that said a little while ago that the contract doesn't dictate the talent level.  Which is very fair point, and I agree with you.  But my counter point to you will be that the stat box also doesn't always dictate talent either.  

 

At the end of the day, a players circumstances often significantly impact production.  For instance, Gurley was bad his sophomore year behind bad coaching, bad OL, and bad QB play.  Rams address OL, Coach, and QB and instantly Gurley is a stud again.  A WR is even more impacted because he needs a second player for him to produce...a QB who is throwing them the ball.  A WR needs opportunities that depend on both scheme, play calling and a QB.  

 

Chiefs gave Sammy a contract on his talent not his stat box.  And if you watch the tape on Sammy with the Rams, he had a much bigger impact to the success of that team than just the stat box, especially for the young QB.  Goff had so many easy throws with so many weapons spreading the D out and Sammy getting doubled and drawing the best DB.  Chiefs I bet are hoping to do the same thing for Mahomes, create easier opportunities by stacking the weapons on all levels of the field.  

 

I do expect Sammy to be used more by Andy though, especially since he will be there the whole offseason to be built into the offense and develop rapport with Mahomes.

[stinky finger]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Lol, I am not the one who is butt hurt...fans here still whining over the trade up 4 years ago are the butt hurt ones who cant let it go.  Just like Whitner...he was always a better player than he got credit for, but all we heard was ridiculous whining his whole career, even when he wasn't a Bill anymore all because the Bills took him over Ngata (which was a stupid move by the Bills for sure, but not Whitners fault).  

 

The whining over spilt milk gets old...Sammy is legit, and if you weren't so butt hurt you would know it.  And if he wasn't then you would be coaching the Chiefs instead of Andy Reid.

 

He's 24. 

 

3rd team.

 

I don't know.