Green Lightning Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, bigduke6 said: no doubt we need a QB, have needed one since Kelly retired, but to overreact, overreach, overspend, well thats one the biggest problems with most people in this society. its a gambling mentality disease, and it rarely pays out. your 17yr drought will turn into what if we miss on picking a QB this upcoming draft? the thing about common sense, its not all that common. At the end of the day we need a good quarterback. Free agent retreads and high draft choices haven't worked out for us. We've missed on a couple others. If McBeane thinks these guys are worth trading up I'm all for it.
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, bigduke6 said: no doubt we need a QB, have needed one since Kelly retired, but to overreact, overreach, overspend, well thats one the biggest problems with most people in this society. its a gambling mentality disease, and it rarely pays out. your 17yr drought will turn into what if we miss on picking a QB this upcoming draft? the thing about common sense, its not all that common. Ridiculous. So when is it a good time to go after a qb? 1
buffaloboyinATL Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 21 minutes ago, simpleman said: The fact is that none of those conditions have been met for the Bills this year. If none are met, you are acting out of desperation , not intelligence. Bad gambles for the sake of desperation do not make good gambles I disagree and think this is over thinking it. If they evaluate the QB’s and find one they think will fit the system, but believe someone may take him before their pick, then you move up and get him. it doesn’t matter if “draft experts” or fans think he is generational etc. if you believe you found the right one for you, and you can get him, do it. Desperation is moving up to get A quarterback, not THE quarterback.
SouthNYfan Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 TLDR: "I want to continue to try to polish somebody else's turd, praying there is a diamond inside, at the QB position by signing castoffs and drafting 4th-6th round QBs, while using our first round picks on CBs and Safties who make a pro bowls,in then we let walk after their rookie deal, only to use our upcoming first round picks to replace said player"
buffaloboyinATL Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, simpleman said: This is the year? Based on desperation and a hunch? These are professional NFL talent evaluators. It is not a “hunch” it is an informed decision. 1
SouthNYfan Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, joesixpack said: Ridiculous. So when is it a good time to go after a qb? Never, according to him. Since it's all a gamble, we shouldn't actually sign any FAs or draft ANY players, just trade our current picks for more future picks, and keep our current roster until everybody retires. Duh.
bigduke6 Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said: Never, according to him. Since it's all a gamble, we shouldn't actually sign any FAs or draft ANY players, just trade our current picks for more future picks, and keep our current roster until everybody retires. Duh. you clearly read the whole thread and understood what was written. well done.
bmur66 Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 I'd like to think the Bills will have their ducks in a row and have a plan for any scenario. I don't expect them to give up the farm for any QB in this draft but who knows? I agree with the OP. Not a good year to trade up but sometimes you have to take a chance. It sure is interesting to see how this plays out. I expect something big to happen now that Tyrod is gone.
SouthNYfan Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, bigduke6 said: you clearly read the whole thread and understood what was written. well done. I did. I also clearly read your statement about the gamblers' mentality. You can't win in the league without taking a risk. You can't get a good, young QB if you don't draft one, unless you hit the lottery with a free agent (which is basically never).
BuffaloBillyG Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, simpleman said: This is the year? Based on desperation and a hunch? Literally everything you have said is your own personal hunch. However here is an absolute fact. McDermott and Beane have a LOT more at stake over who plays QB and who is drafted than you or I do. If they are going to stake their jobs on a certain QB panning out...so be it. If they are wrong, they will be gone. If they are right they will be Buffalo sports legends until the day they leave this Earth. We have, however seen that not making a decision is a decision in and of itself. That's how you end up with Kyle Orton sliding short of a first down. Or Brian Brohm. Or Levi Brown. Or Trent Edwards. They need to do their homework and make...NOT A HUNCH but an educated and informed decision.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, simpleman said: A “Good Year” to trade up. The quality of “the one”, not the quantity of “maybes” A Great year to trade up to pick a QB is a year where: 1.) There is a generational talent at QB who is as close to a “sure thing” as possible. 2.) You have the trade capitol to spend to get that talent, without setting back the rest of your team for multiple years by spending that trade capitol you desperately need elsewhere. You are almost a franchise QB away from having a solid team. 3.) There is minimal need and competition from other teams for that player, driving up the cost of the trade to you. 4.) Your potential trade partner does not need that franchise QB, since they already have one. And there are no other generational “sure thing” choices at a position of need for them available at their draft position during the draft. It is not about quantity, it is about quality when you trade up. This is a year of a quantity of “maybes”, and no quality “sure things”. There is no consensus generational QB talent this year. All the top picks are flawed in some way or other. The last time there was as close to a “sure thing”, was when Andrew Luck was in the draft. There is no Andrew Luck in this draft. Just a lot of flawed “maybe” QB’s. No “sure thing” generational talent. When you trade up, you do it for a specific player. Unlike being lucky in a year when you have a high pick, where you at least have better odds of the player you want being there when your pick comes up. The odds are no better that you will get “the one” during that single trade up to get there, since you choose when, and who to do it for. It is about just one player, the one that you are positive is the one. Not about how many “maybes” there are to choose from. We may have draft capitol, but we do have so many serious holes everywhere, few teams except the Browns have more holes than we do. We have been exposed to almost 20 years of “3 year planned rebuilds”. And you want us to believe we should wait yet another 3 years, and expect for this one to turn out any different than it has for the last almost 20 years? This is a year when there are an exceptionally large number of teams also desperately looking for their “Franchise QB”. About the only thing you possibly have going for you this year is that there are 3 or 4 teams with high draft picks who don’t absolutely “need” a Franchise QB and are willing to trade. A “Good Year” to trade up is not about the “quantity of maybes” available that year. It is a year where there that “one” who you believe is as close to sure thing as possible for your team is available, and you are in the best position in the league to get that “one”. I know people call me unnecessarily verbose, but I think folks can usually figure out what my point is. I can't follow this. Generational draft talents, by definition, appear once every generation (or 20 years) and are a tad unpredictable as to being recognized prior to draft day. There are 32 teams who need QB. Logic says therefore, teams can't wait for Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. They have to take their shots on Matt Stafford and Deshaun Watson and Mitch Trubisky and Josh Rosen and Baker Mayfield - talented prospects who have recognized flaws prior to the draft Drafting a QB in the top 2 picks is not a certainly - it gives you roughly 2 out of 3 odds of success, and maybe you don't draft Peyton, you draft Matt Ryan. Drafting in the middle of the first, gives you roughly 1 out of 3 odds of success. This I know: You never hit the shot you don't take. The problem with the Bills drafting has not been that they took risky shots; it's that they haven't taken enough shots. We have drafted 2 1st round QB in the last 18 years, both in the mid to late picks where the odds off success are at best 1/3, means that the odds of failure are 2/3. That means by drafting 2 QB in 18 years, we have 4/9 odds that neither would succeed or 44%. If we'd simply done our best assessment and chosen a QB in the 1st every 3 or 4 years, it would be something like (2/3) to the 6th power, or 91% chance of success by now. All this is assuming random chance - the odds could be improved, of course, by having better than average talent evaluation and draft judgement or by drafting only in years where the QB talent is evaluated as deep. Bottom line: Trade up. Don't trade up. Trade down. But pull the D*** Trigger! Edited March 11, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan 1
bigduke6 Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 (edited) 6 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said: I did. I also clearly read your statement about the gamblers' mentality. You can't win in the league without taking a risk. You can't get a good, young QB if you don't draft one, unless you hit the lottery with a free agent (which is basically never). its risk or no risk right? thats what im getting from your posts. black and white. if only the world were that simple. this thread was about a particular time for risk, and when its too cost prohibitive. but ya, its now or never.....who cares about the cost Edited March 11, 2018 by bigduke6
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 (edited) 40 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said: This one I think is the worst one: "There is minimal need and competition from other teams for that player, driving up the cost of the trade to you." We wait til nobody wants a sure thing generational talent at QB. The only way that could possibly happen is if we are an NBA or a Major League baseball team. Truth! Edited March 11, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan
SouthNYfan Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, bigduke6 said: its risk or no risk right? thats what im getting from your posts. black and white. if only the world were that simple. this thread was about a particular time for risk, and when its too cost prohibitive. but ya, now or never..... So explain when the time is right? You seem to say now isn't the time, so when is? Next year's QB class looks to be another "EJ Manuel" type year. Last year everybody was like "don't take a QB, wait until next year!!" We traded back, and KC immediately took mahomes, who they shipped out Alex Smith to make room for. The Texans rolled with Watson. Watson was on fire before he got hurt, and mahomes looked very good in his one start (unlike Peterman). So, swami, we should wait until next year again?
Original Byrd Man Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 1 hour ago, KingRex said: OK Theory, but the reality remains, who do you think is the one? None of the above, which I believe was the OP's point. So sit tight and take who falls.
ghostwriter Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I know people call me unnecessarily verbose, but I think folks can usually figure out what my point is. I can't follow this. Generational draft talents, by definition, appear once every generation (or 20 years) and are a tad unpredictable as to being recognized prior to draft day. There are 32 teams who need QB. Logic says therefore, teams can't wait for Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. They have to take their shots on Matt Stafford and Deshaun Watson and Mitch Trubisky and Josh Rosen and Baker Mayfield - talented prospects who have recognized flaws prior to the draft Drafting a QB in the top 2 picks is not a certainly - it gives you roughly 2 out of 3 odds of success, and maybe you don't draft Peyton, you draft Matt Ryan. Drafting in the middle of the first, gives you roughly 1 out of 3 odds of success. This I know: You never hit the shot you don't take. The problem with the Bills drafting has not been that they took risky shots; it's that they haven't taken enough shots. We have drafted 2 1st round QB in the last 18 years, both in the mid to late picks where the odds off success are at best 1/3, means that the odds of failure are 2/3. That means by drafting 2 QB in 18 years, we have 4/9 odds that neither would succeed or 44%. If we'd simply done our best assessment and chosen a QB in the 1st every 3 or 4 years, it would be something like (2/3) to the 6th power, or 91% chance of success by now. All this is assuming random chance - the odds could be improved, of course, by having better than average talent evaluation and draft judgement or by drafting only in years where the QB talent is evaluated as deep. Bottom line: Trade up. Don't trade up. Trade down. But pull the D*** Trigger! I pretty much agree with you on everything except how far we move up. We are in full agreement that we need a QB, dare I say it, take two! It's just who, when and where?
bigduke6 Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 (edited) 5 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said: So explain when the time is right? You seem to say now isn't the time, so when is? Next year's QB class looks to be another "EJ Manuel" type year. Last year everybody was like "don't take a QB, wait until next year!!" We traded back, and KC immediately took mahomes, who they shipped out Alex Smith to make room for. The Texans rolled with Watson. Watson was on fire before he got hurt, and mahomes looked very good in his one start (unlike Peterman). So, swami, we should wait until next year again? u know when its a good time to take a flyer on a top QB that has a less than 50% chance to succeed? its when u dont give up six fricken picks to take that chance. ffs if had to explain that to too u.....like i said read the thread. u give 2 examples of guys who've done absolutely nothing in this league to this point. and their respective teams gave up little to get them.... its about how much u need to give up to gamble on an unknown commodity. ffs. we get it, u want a top QB, and nobody elses opinion matters. must be a wonderful world u live in. Edited March 11, 2018 by bigduke6
oldmanfan Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 If they believe one of these guys is a can't miss prospect, they'll make the move to get him. If they feel a guy like Rudolph is as good as any, they'll stay put. there are going to be, conservatively, hundreds of threads about the same stuff the next few weeks. None matter. They are doing their work and they'll make the best decision they can.
BadLandsMeanie Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 I don't think anyone, not one player, from the 2106 draft is on the team now. But we went to the playoffs last year. From that I can figure that teams can and do recover from gaps in the draft. 1
ghostwriter Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, bigduke6 said: u know when its a good time to take a flyer on a top QB that has a less than 50% chance to succeed? its when u dont give up six fricken picks to take that chance. ffs if had to explain that to too u.....like i said read the thread. u give 2 examples of guys who've done absolutely nothing in this league to this point. and their respective teams gave up little to get them.... its about how much u need to give up to gamble on an unknown commodity. ffs. we get it, u want a top QB, and nobody elses opinion matters. must be a wonderful world u live in. I want Baker Mayfield at 10, I think he'll be there, the price won't be too bad at that point.
Recommended Posts