BBills88 Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 How can people defend Trubisky and say after 12 games he's not a bust but label Peterman horrible after less than one game at the same position. 2
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, SoTier said: I disagree with this primarily because the risk in a trade up is magnified by the number and quality of the picks given up. Swapping first round picks and throwing in one or two additional picks is much less risky than swapping a higher first for 2 firsts and additional Day 2 picks (rounds 2 or 3), and both are infinitely more risky than already having the target pick (say #2 or #3). I'm speaking of the risk that the player acquired won't work out. Roughly 1/3 of the QB drafted with the first 2 picks don't. That risk is the same, whether your team acquires one of the top 2 picks by sucking, or by trading up for it. I'm not sure I understand your definition of risk, in the sentences above. Less risky/more risky/infinitely more risky in what sense? 2 hours ago, BBills88 said: How can people defend Trubisky and say after 12 games he's not a bust but label Peterman horrible after less than one game at the same position. Oh, My. How Can It Be So, Joe? Do you seriously have no notion? Edited March 11, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan
GunnerBill Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 2 hours ago, BBills88 said: How can people defend Trubisky and say after 12 games he's not a bust but label Peterman horrible after less than one game at the same position. Personally I will say it is because based on his college tape I never thought Peterman had a chance to begin with.... 1
MAJBobby Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 7 hours ago, NewDayBills said: Out of the teams that traded up for 1st round QBs in the past 10 years: 2017: Chicago for Mitchell Trubisky Kansas City for Patrick Mahomes Houston for Deshaun Watson 2016: Los Angeles for Jared Goff Philadelphia for Carson Wentz 2015: no one. 2014: Johnny Manziel Teddy Bridgewater 2013: no one. 2012: Washington gave up the farm for RG3. 2011: nobody. 2010: nobody. 2009: Tampa Bay traded to #17 for Josh Freeman. 2008: Nobody So out of the 9 QBs taken: 33% have been great. (Wentz, Goff, Watson) 44% have been busts. (Freeman, RG3, Trubisky, Manziel) 22% the jury is still out on. (Bridgewater, Mahomes) So Trubinksy is a bust? After year one really???
Mango Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 7 hours ago, NewDayBills said: Out of the teams that traded up for 1st round QBs in the past 10 years: 2017: Chicago for Mitchell Trubisky Kansas City for Patrick Mahomes Houston for Deshaun Watson 2016: Los Angeles for Jared Goff Philadelphia for Carson Wentz 2015: no one. 2014: Johnny Manziel Teddy Bridgewater 2013: no one. 2012: Washington gave up the farm for RG3. 2011: nobody. 2010: nobody. 2009: Tampa Bay traded to #17 for Josh Freeman. 2008: Nobody So out of the 9 QBs taken: 33% have been great. (Wentz, Goff, Watson) 44% have been busts. (Freeman, RG3, Trubisky, Manziel) 22% the jury is still out on. (Bridgewater, Mahomes) If You irrationally list Trubisky as a bust, you should Mohames to a hit. He’s looked pretty good in the time he’s played. That mives your hit rate to 44% when it comes to trading up for a QB you believe in. Just for perspective, that’s pretty good. Freeman was weird, he played well for a time period. Then just fell off the face of the earth. RG3, might never have been an elite guy, and I was never a huge fan, but prior to injury he probably would have had a Cutler-esque career. He wasn’t really a dud like Leaf. Probably closer to Tyrod in terms of production as a passer paired with athleticism. Can’t play “what if”. But Washington took a swing at a very good prospect. Sucks for them it didn’t work out, but it wasn’t the “worst” trade ever.
Augie Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 6 hours ago, GunnerBill said: The only two of those trades that I wouldn't make again today are the same two I wouldn't have made at the time - Manziel and Freeman. I was going to say, you can’t fault the trade-up option because the Browns were stupid enough to draft Manziel. That one in particular I think you have to throw out....at least I will.
nedboy7 Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 You are upsetting the delusional fan base. Keep to script. We are getting a frencheyes
Rochesterfan Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: NewDay, it is really not realistically possible to pronounce upon the 2017 QB class yet. Watson is not a success based upon 6 games and 19 TD. Trubisky is not a bust based on 12 games and 7 TD/7 INT. The one looks more promising than the other, but it's early days for both. Taking out those 3, you have 6 QB. Goff, Wentz, and RGIII were taken at the top of the draft. At worst, that appears to be 2 out of 3 success, and RGIII had an amazing year and what (for other QB) would be seen as a good year before injury derailed him. 2/3 success (66%) is within the observed success rate of top 2 picks (analyzed over 20 years) whether by trade up or not Bridgewater, Manziel, and Freeman were taken later in the draft. Freeman gave Tampa Bay a meh rookie season then 3 promising years before addiction or whatever wiped him out. His second year in particular was EXCELLENT, and he passed for >4000 yds and 27 TDs in his 4th season. And we have 2 years of data on Bridgewater pre-injury; how many are we going to give the new QB we draft? I would call him "OK" - not a bust, but not The Man either. So let's call that two partial successes, at least 1 of which may still prove out if he can return from a horrific injury - that would be 1/3 success. 33% success is within the observed success rate of the rest of the 1st round (analyzed over 20 years) whether by trade up or not. Drafting a QB is not an exact science. In particular, it's hard to predict injuries and their impact, or whether someone's head will implode as Freeman's did when silly amounts of money are placed at his disposal. My bottom line: Trade ups are neither more or less risky than owning the pick in question. The risk comes from the uncertainties of the player personnel evaluation. Some you can see coming (Manziel) but some teams think that the talent makes them worth the risk (or have meddlesome owners who have hopefully learnt their lesson) Trading up is not a sure route to a franchise QB, but the probabilities of success are still significantly higher at the top of the 1st (1st 2 picks) than elsewhere in the draft. Thank You - I was starting to pull data and you hit it. The move ups to the Top show a nice return, just as drafting those guys at that spot does without the trade up. Moving up to mid 1st and later yields worse results because the overall success rate is way down in that spot. The worst part of the entire thread is then when the OP comes back and says we’ll move up to 10 just don’t throw away the farm. Either you accept the trade up for a QB or you don’t - you can not say well the overall success rate for QB trade-ups is bad - so only trade up a bit - when that is the part of trades ups that have the worst return. If you are going up - Identify the QB you want at the top and go get him - that gives you the best chance at getting the best guy. 2
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 6 hours ago, NewDayBills said: Let's take the 33% odds for example and let's say you're playing scratch off tickets. Would you rather have 1 ticket at a 33% chance or 5 tickets with a 33% chance? (Although the odds of finding a franchise QB is far slimmer than drafting other positions and our chances of finding starters would be greater than 33% along with 5x more chances to find good players.) Let's take the fundamental problem first and realize that your analysis of 33% odds of success in trading up is fundamentally flawed (as specified elsewhere - for example, guys who have played less than a season success and guys who have played 1 season busts) Now let's move on to the point I and others have made that the odds of drafting a franchise QB vary significantly between the top 2 picks of the draft, picks 6-20, 21-32, and the 2nd round. 1 ticket with 33% chance vs 5 tickets with 33% chance is a poor descriptor of the actual draft landscape. The top 2 picks are 66-75% odds of getting a good NFL QB. 6-20 is about 30%. Bottom of the 1st/2nd round 20% So then the question becomes, how many tickets do you have to buy for about 95% odds of success? The answer is something along the lines of: 2 chances at the top 2 picks, maybe 4 chances in the top 20 picks of the 1st 5-6 chances in the bottom of the 1st/2nd 9 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said: Thank You - I was starting to pull data and you hit it. The move ups to the Top show a nice return, just as drafting those guys at that spot does without the trade up. Moving up to mid 1st and later yields worse results because the overall success rate is way down in that spot. The worst part of the entire thread is then when the OP comes back and says we’ll move up to 10 just don’t throw away the farm. Either you accept the trade up for a QB or you don’t - you can not say well the overall success rate for QB trade-ups is bad - so only trade up a bit - when that is the part of trades ups that have the worst return. If you are going up - Identify the QB you want at the top and go get him - that gives you the best chance at getting the best guy. Yep, you got the flick.
BillsFan2313 Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 (edited) 7 hours ago, NewDayBills said: When is the last time we've had this many picks? We can literally load up and build a powerhouse. Trading that away for nothing, why do it? I could see moving up 8-10 spots because that would not put a dent in our capital, but moving in the top 10 like some want is irresponsible. I don't know how many 2nd and 3rd picks we had, but the last time we had 2 first round picks. 2006: Donte Whitner and John McCargo 2009: Aaron Maybin and Eric Wood You know what I want to do with 2 first round picks this time? Move up and get a damn QB. Enough of this waiting crap. Edited March 11, 2018 by BillsFan2313 1
ghostwriter Posted March 11, 2018 Author Posted March 11, 2018 (edited) Jesus Christ, can you guys summarize your thoughts in like 3-4 paragraphs? I appreciate the responses, but it's like a tsunami full of text. It would take me at least an hour to respond back to all of this on my phone. Edited March 11, 2018 by NewDayBills 1
DJB Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 Im interested to know what the total cost was to move up for each qb.
BillsFan130 Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 8 hours ago, NewDayBills said: Fair enough, maybe I'm letting my personal opinion get in the way on that, but I really don't think so, he sucks. I’m With you on that one. Its still early and he may pull a Jared Goff and excell with some better coaching and playmakers in his 2nd year, but i would bet he isn’t going to pan out 1
ghostwriter Posted March 11, 2018 Author Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, BillsFan2313 said: I don't know how many 2nd and 3rd picks we had, but the last time we had 2 first round picks. 2006: Donte Whitner and John McCargo 2009: Aaron Maybin and Eric Wood You know what I want to do with 2 first round picks this time? Move up and get a damn QB. Enough of this waiting crap. I get **** not because I don't want to move up, I get **** because I don't want to move into the top 2-3. As I said, I could see 7-8 maybe for Rosen, Mayfield or Darnold, but I cannot justify going all in for say #2.
BillsFan2313 Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 Throwing this out there. Dont kill the messenger, but a little nugget from a party a Bills player threw Friday. McCoy wants to play for the Giants. A trade might get done without giving up all our draft picks. If i can trade both firsts, a player and a pick next year. You do it and still have two 2nds and two 3rds.
/dev/null Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, BillsFan2313 said: I don't know how many 2nd and 3rd picks we had, but the last time we had 2 first round picks. 2006: Donte Whitner and John McCargo 2009: Aaron Maybin and Eric Wood You know what I want to do with 2 first round picks this time? Move up and get a damn QB. Enough of this waiting crap. And in neither of those drafts would trading up resulted in a franchise QB. With the exception of Stafford in 2009 who went #1 overall and there was no way the Lions were going to part with that pick anyway 1
Doc Brown Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, NewDayBills said: I get **** not because I don't want to move up, I get **** because I don't want to move into the top 2-3. As I said, I could see 7-8 maybe for Rosen, Mayfield or Darnold, but I cannot justify going all in for say #2. You could spread your picks out a little bit so it won't hurt that much this draft. I could easily see the Bills giving up their two 1sts, a 2nd, a 3rd (#65), and a 2nd next year. You then get your quarterback, a 2nd and 3rd round pick this year.
BillsFan2313 Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, NewDayBills said: I get **** not because I don't want to move up, I get **** because I don't want to move into the top 2-3. As I said, I could see 7-8 maybe for Rosen, Mayfield or Darnold, but I cannot justify going all in for say #2. I am telling you, I want the best in the draft. Go get him, even if it takes all the way to 2
JinxedBill1 Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 Trubisky looked pretty good to me last year. I think he'll surprise a lot more people this next year.
BillsFan2313 Posted March 11, 2018 Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, /dev/null said: And in neither of those drafts would trading up resulted in a franchise QB. With the exception of Stafford in 2009 who went #1 overall and there was no way the Lions were going to part with that pick anyway Thats fine. I am saying those picks outside of Wood sucked. This draft has QBs. Go get one
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