IgotBILLStopay Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 (edited) We are desperate for a QB saviour. Do we sign a veteran or trade up is the key question in most Bills fans ' minds. Here are the details for the past 10 years (@009 - 2017) regarding QBs drafted in the first 2 rounds: 2009 Stafford 1 Yes Sanchez 5 No Freeman 17 No White 44 No 2010 Bradford 1 Yes? Tebow 25 No Clausen 48 No 2011 Newton 1 Yes Locker 8 No Gabbert 10 No Ponder 12 No Dalton 35 Yes Kaepernick 36 No 2012 Luck 1 Yes RG3 2 No Tannehill 8 No Weeden 22 No Osweiler 57 No 2013 EJ Manuel 16 No Smith 39 No 2014 Bortles 3 No Manziel 22 No Bridgewater 32 No? Carr 36 Yes Garoppolo62 62 Yes 2015 Winston 1 Yes Mariota 2 Yes 2016 Goff 1 Yes? Wentz 2 Yes Lynch 26 No Hackenberg 51 No 2017 Trubisky 2 No? Mahomes 10 Yes Watson 12 Yes Kizer 52 No The first column gives the year, second the pick, third the pick number and the fourth my opinion whether the pick was worthj it or not. ? implies jury is still out with Yes? closer to yes and No? closer to No. Obviously these ? cases are primarily from recent years. These are subjective classifications and I know we can quibble about a couple of them, but I dont think they change the overall stats much. There are 10 yes, 3 Yes?, 2 No? and 20 No. That means there are way more busts than decent picks in the first 2 rounds. What about just the first round? They are only marginally better with 7 yes, 3 Yes?, 1 No? and 12 No. That also tells you how bad second round QB picks do - 3 yes, 0 Yes?, 1 No? and 8 No. What about top 10 picks? They get a bit better (about 50% hit rate) with 6 yes, 3 Yes?, 1 No? and 6 No. That also tells us non top 10 first rounders 1 -0-0-6! What about top 5? They get a bit better (about 50% hit rate) with 6 yes, 2 Yes?, 1 No? and 2 No. That also tells us non top 5 Top 10s 0 -1-0-4! Bottomline - If you want to move up - move to top 2 and draft. Dont muck round and land with the 3rd or 4th best QB!!! Edited March 10, 2018 by IgotBILLStopay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo716 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 How can you have a no? At Trubisky but a yes with Mahomes Mahomes has tons of question marks and played in 1 game and didn't throw a TD if anything they are both no? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said: We are desperate for a QB saviour. Do we sign a veteran or trade up is the key question in most Bills fans ' minds. Here are the details for the past 10 years (@009 - 2017) regarding QBs drafted in the first 2 rounds: 2009 Stafford 1 Yes Sanchez 5 No Freeman 17 No White 44 No 2010 Bradford 1 Yes? Tebow 25 No Clausen 48 No 2011 Newton 1 Yes Locker 8 No Gabbert 10 No Ponder 12 No Dalton 35 Yes Kaepernick 36 No 2012 Luck 1 Yes RG3 2 No Tannehill 8 No Weeden 22 No Osweiler 57 No 2013 EJ Manuel 16 No Smith 39 No 2014 Bortles 3 No Manziel 22 No Bridgewater 32 No? Carr 36 Yes Garoppolo62 62 Yes 2015 Winston 1 Yes Mariota 2 Yes 2016 Goff 1 Yes? Wentz 2 Yes Lynch 26 No Hackenberg 51 No 2017 Trubisky 2 No? Mahomes 10 Yes Watson 12 Yes Kizer 52 No The first column gives the year, second the pick, third the pick number and the fourth my opinion whether the pick was worthj it or not. ? implies jury is still out with Yes? closer to yes and No? closer to No. Obviously these ? cases are primarily from recent years. These are subjective classifications and I know we can quibble about a couple of them, but I dont think they change the overall stats much. There are 10 yes, 3 Yes?, 2 No? and 20 No. That means there are way more busts than decent picks in the first 2 rounds. What about just the first round? They are only marginally better with 7 yes, 3 Yes?, 1 No? and 12 No. That also tells you how bad second round QB picks do - 3 yes, 0 Yes?, 1 No? and 8 No. What about top 10 picks? They get a bit better (about 50% hit rate) with 6 yes, 3 Yes?, 1 No? and 6 No. That also tells us non top 10 first rounders 1 -0-0-6! What about top 5? They get a bit better (about 50% hit rate) with 6 yes, 2 Yes?, 1 No? and 2 No. That also tells us non top 5 Top 10s 0 -1-0-4! Bottomline - If you want to move up - move to top 2 and draft. Dont muck round and land with the 3rd or 4th best QB!!! title is misleading. these are not stats, they are your musings, nothing more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IgotBILLStopay Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, Buffalo716 said: How can you have a no? At Trubisky but a yes with Mahomes Mahomes has tons of question marks and played in 1 game and didn't throw a TD if anything they are both no? KInda subjective I admit - beauty in the eye of the beholder and all that! Quote These are subjective classifications and I know we can quibble about a couple of them, but I dont think they change the overall stats much. 3 minutes ago, Foxx said: title is misleading. these are not stats, they are your musings, nothing more. My bad - I added some opinions to the title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FearLess Price Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 52 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said: How can you have a no? At Trubisky but a yes with Mahomes Mahomes has tons of question marks and played in 1 game and didn't throw a TD if anything they are both no? Honestly i think trubisky is gonna be good in 2 years. Mahomes can be great or just decent hes got a lot of talent. I think more than likely they will both be solid starters in the league with one being really good, im guessing Mahomes. Kids a gunslinger who can read defenses, he will prob develop faster. What do you see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo716 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 21 minutes ago, FearLess Price said: Honestly i think trubisky is gonna be good in 2 years. Mahomes can be great or just decent hes got a lot of talent. I think more than likely they will both be solid starters in the league with one being really good, im guessing Mahomes. Kids a gunslinger who can read defenses, he will prob develop faster. What do you see Both are very gifted physically, with Mahomes having the bigger arm but both are very raw, and Mahomes has to work a lot on his footwork and even consistency in his release Trubisky has trouble throwing to the left Mahomes is obviously is a better spot so we will see how they progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FearLess Price Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said: Both are very gifted physically, with Mahomes having the bigger arm but both are very raw, and Mahomes has to work a lot on his footwork and even consistency in his release Trubisky has trouble throwing to the left Mahomes is obviously is a better spot so we will see how they progress Did you watch Mahomes 1 start? Hes Really cleaned up the footwork. It already looked miles ahead of where he was in college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo716 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 14 minutes ago, FearLess Price said: Did you watch Mahomes 1 start? Hes Really cleaned up the footwork. It already looked miles ahead of where he was in college. I don't take much stock in one start I want to see how he respond to a full season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IgotBILLStopay Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 2014 was the exception where the top 2 did not pan out but 3 4 and 5 worked out ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xRUSHx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Goes to show teams will spend to try for one even if said class is not well represented. Your list also shows some classes are better then others. IMO this is a very good QB class and lucky for us we have more then 2 to pick from. Got to buy a ticket in the lottery if you want to win it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 10 hours ago, FearLess Price said: Did you watch Mahomes 1 start? Hes Really cleaned up the footwork. It already looked miles ahead of where he was in college. I watched it and it was better than the footwork on his college tape... but it still has some way to go. I also think the second big knock on his college tape was accuracy in the red zone when windows got tighter and that was still there against the Broncos and remains a legit concern. Mahomes ceiling is still very high but it is too early to say we know whether it was a good pick or not. I actually think it is too early on Trubisky and Watson too. After year 1 how would you have scored Wentz and Goff? You want to be able to see at least 2 years and see improvement year 1 to year 2 as well before you start drawing conclusions. Anything else is a projection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FearLess Price Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 11 hours ago, Buffalo716 said: I don't take much stock in one start I want to see how he respond to a full season Thats valid, i would never wanna end up with Rob Johnson at QB, and thats what happens when you go all in after one start. The potential is there and it shines through the improvement you see from his college tape and limited playing time. I think hes going to develop faster bc hes a better situation. Better team overall with more more offensive weapons, and a creative offense. 27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I watched it and it was better than the footwork on his college tape... but it still has some way to go. I also think the second big knock on his college tape was accuracy in the red zone when windows got tighter and that was still there against the Broncos and remains a legit concern. Mahomes ceiling is still very high but it is too early to say we know whether it was a good pick or not. I actually think it is too early on Trubisky and Watson too. After year 1 how would you have scored Wentz and Goff? You want to be able to see at least 2 years and see improvement year 1 to year 2 as well before you start drawing conclusions. Anything else is a projection. Small improvement againts a vanilla denver defense still allows for projection. Watson didnt light up the world in his 1st start either, i saw that game. Im not on the Jimmy G bandwagon yet either, cant judge a player completely off a a game or a one year wonder season like Keenum. Mahomes can flourish earlier cuz of where he is. Vs Trubisky whos team needs to get him some weapons during his development like they did for Goff. Wentz still needs another good year on his resume. He could have a post injury slide like Carr did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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