Rams will not tag Watkins

[BigBuff423]

Just now, YoloinOhio said:

I think the Bills will draft a WR relatively high (2nd) and throw an offer sheet at an RFA like Adam Humphries from the Bucs. 

 

You may be right, but I also think a lot depends on what they do in the Draft or FA regarding the QB position. 

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, YoloinOhio said:

I think the Bills will draft a WR relatively high (2nd) and throw an offer sheet at an RFA like Adam Humphries from the Bucs. 

 

I think the FA target might be Albert Wilson from KC.  He's got the speed they lack, and he lead the NFL in yards of separation per snap.  Probably comes in at less than $6M AAV too.

[YoloinOhio]

Just now, BigBuff423 said:

 

You may be right, but I also think a lot depends on what they do in the Draft or FA regarding the QB position. 

The UFA crop of WRs is thin as it is, I don’t think they will be able to lock down anyone decent before the QB position is solidified unless they have a FA QB and WR with the same agent. 

2 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

You may be right, but I also think a lot depends on what they do in the Draft or FA regarding the QB position. 

David Culley connection, would be nice 

[Maybe Someday]

I don't think our FO would want him back.  He didn't buy into the process so that ship has sailed.  Especially for the money I think he'll want.

 

IMO, the only way that we can say for certain we won the trade is if Sammy doesn't resign with the Rams.  Was a 1 year rental worth a 2nd and Gaines?  Not even close.  But if he does resign with the Rams, can stay healthy and continues to grow in that offense then I think the price is well worth it for them.  We'd need to turn that pick into a high contributing player to even come close to winning it. 

 

I just like the fact that we finally have a FO that has the foresight to realize that we'd be losing a player either way so they got something for him.  That's a win right there to me. 

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

The tough part about the valuation is that, despite taking WR1 snaps and high efficiency, he was still 4th on the team in targets and behind 2 other WRs. He's played ~3.5 years now, and while his efficiency stats have always been good, at some point you have to ask why he doesn't get Brown/Jones/ODB/Hopkins type targets?

 

Right--his efficiency stats are off-the-charts good.  I really don't know why he hasn't gotten the targets consistently, especially after the other-worldly performance he put up in the 2nd half of 2015 when he actually got WR1 targets.

 

My opinion on it is that he hasn't played with a QB that is willing to feed him the ball the way that guys like Ben, Ryan, and Eli feed their WR1.  Of course, in LA, that's unlikely to change for 2 reasons: Goff doesn't exactly throw a great deep ball, and McVay rotates his WRs to keep them fresher than the opposing team's DBs (which is a really smart innovation in the passing game that I'm stuck on  )

[H2o]

I told everyone the Rams would not tag him. With that being said, I would take Watkins back. When you feed him the ball he puts up numbers. I wouldn't go out of my way to try to sign him, but I would at least make contact to throw an offer out there. He, Benjamin, Zay, and Thompson would be a decent 4 piece imo. 

[BigBuff423]

Just now, YoloinOhio said:

The UFA crop of WRs is thin as it is, I don’t think they will be able to lock down anyone decent before the QB position is solidified unless they have a FA QB and WR with the same agent. 

 

Yes, I agree the UFA set of WRs is not ideal for a team like the Bills, but I'm also not sure the Bills use their only 2nd round selection on a WR if they had to trade both 1sts, a 2nd this year, plus a player and / or Draft pick next year for a QB. 

 

I'm not in favor of trading up too far, or at all if possible, but if the Bills make that trade, I don't think they have the option to use their only 2nd on a WR when they will need DT / LB help even more than WR help, given there's Kelvin and Zay already in place. I agree it's a need, I'm just not sure they value that position as much in terms of Draft value in *this* year. Now, if by some miracle they were to get Cousins (and I'm not a fan of that either), I think they'd almost be mandated to do that just because he HAS to have good WRs he can throw to, in order to make his acquisition and contract make sense.

 

However, if the Bills stay put, or don't have up much in terms of Draft picks this year and still Draft a QB, then I could also see them taking a WR in the 2nd. However, I think I'd rather take a FA route if the money isn't insane just because that Rookie QB will need Veteran hands and knowledge to help him succeed. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

31 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Did we?  We got a 2nd round pick and a cornerback that played 59% of the team's defensive snaps, and looks unlikely to be retained.

 

The Rams got a WR1 that played 75% of the team's offensive snaps  and lead them in yards/catch, yards/target, and receiving TDs...he also appears to be likely to be retained.

 

We may not have lost the trade, but I don't see how we won it.  Now, maybe if the 2nd round pick we got from LA will turn into a great player, and then we can say that we won the trade, but until then, the jury's out.

lol

 

 

[NewEra]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

 

http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/chicago-bears/report-alshon-jeffery-agrees-one-year-deal-eagles

 

 

Not almost as valuable; more valuable.

 

Played WR1 snaps for them, and lead the team in yards per catch, yards per target, and TDs.  Contrast that with Gaines, whose team made the playoffs despite him not playing over 40% of the time.  Also, one guy's team is trying to re-sign him, while the other guy's team actively went and found his replacement the first time they had a chance.  One guy's team finished with the worst position group in the NFL after trading him, while the other guy's position group for his former team hummed along just fine without him.

 

I'd like for someone like yourself--who I believe is measured and intelligent with your comments--to give me some kind of fact-based argument as to why Gaines + 2nd is more valuable.  I'm willing to listen.

 

The Bills made the playoffs for the first time i this century.  I don’t know what Gaines’ record was as a starter for the Bills this year, but it was very very good,  when he didn’t play, I don’t have the exact numbers as I sit on the pot and take a dump, but I don’t think we won 2 games without Gaines.  Did we win any?  And now we have a 2nd rd pick.  I view that as more valuable because the Bills ending the drought was the Bills best case scenario in 2017.  We had no business winning the SB.  Our season was as good as it was going to get with what we were working with.  The rams season was as good as it was going to get.  Now we have a 2nd rd pick and they have a potential headache. 

 

 

Sammy was my favorite player,  I was pretty devastated when we traded him for Gaines and a 2nd.  I didn’t think there was any way the trade would help us improve in 2018.  I was wrong.  We improved and we now have a 2nd rd pick.  Sammy wasn’t going to fit with McD.  The actions by the Bills support this notion.  Didn’t franchise him and then traded him shortly thereafter.  Like I said before, I don’t believe both teams have to lose.  In this case both teams won.....but our win was signature and will be remembered forever in our hearts.  Forever.

[H2o]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

 

The Bills made the playoffs for the first time i this century.  I don’t know what Gaines’ record was as a starter for the Bills this year, but it was very very good,  when he didn’t play, I don’t have the exact numbers as I sit on the pot and take a dump, but I don’t think we won 2 games without Gaines.  Did we win any?  And now we have a 2nd rd pick.  I view that as more valuable because the Bills ending the drought was the Bills best case scenario in 2017.  We had no business winning the SB.  Our season was as good as it was going to get with what we were working with.  The rams season was as good as it was going to get.  Now we have a 2nd rd pick and they have a potential headache. 

 

 

Sammy was my favorite player,  I was pretty devastated when we traded him for Gaines and a 2nd.  I didn’t think there was any way the trade would help us improve in 2018.  I was wrong.  We improved and we now have a 2nd rd pick.  Sammy wasn’t going to fit with McD.  The actions by the Bills support this notion.  Didn’t franchise him and then traded him shortly thereafter.  Like I said before, I don’t believe both teams have to lose.  In this case both teams won.....but our win was signature and will be remembered forever in our hearts.  Forever.

The Bills were 8-3 with Gaines in the lineup, 1-4 without. 

[McBean]

I remember people on here going nuts when we dealt his butt.

 

The minority of us was thrilled to send him walking + getting a 2nd rounder.

 

Good times. 

[Thurman#1]

10 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

How did Buffalo win the trade?  They had the worst WR corps in the NFL last year, and made the playoffs despite the CB that they traded for missing 41% of the team's snaps.  EJ played well when he played, but let's not confuse that with him contributing more to the team's success than Watkins did to LA's success.

 

 

 

I'll repeat:  "And yeah, it's the 2nd round pick that's the difference. A pick's worth isn't determined by how well it's used. It's determined by what someone would give for it at the time at draft time. Gaines this last year plus a 2nd is absolutely better than Sammy this last year. Who they pick will be a reflection on how talented and lucky our draft team is, not on how much the pick was worth."

 

And the number of snaps Gaines played was mostly due to a knee injury that kept him out three or four games. Would've been nice if he'd stayed healthy, but he played a lot and when he played, he played very well. He forced three fumbles and had an INT. There's a reason he is going to get good enough money that we aren't expecting to be able to get him back.

 

Also worth noting that of the three games in a row in which our defense was absolutely shelled, the Jets, Saints and Chargers games on Nov. 2nd to the 19th, Gaines missed the first two and returned from injury for the 3rd, the Chargers, which was probably his worst game. Was that because he wasn't healthy yet? Dunno, but he started playing much better quite quickly.

 

But again, it's the 2nd round pick that makes this a big win for the Bills.

 

 

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

lol

 

 

 

Would you care to expand, or is this the extent of your contribution?

 

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

 

The Bills made the playoffs for the first time i this century.  I don’t know what Gaines’ record was as a starter for the Bills this year, but it was very very good,  when he didn’t play, I don’t have the exact numbers as I sit on the pot and take a dump, but I don’t think we won 2 games without Gaines.  Did we win any?  And now we have a 2nd rd pick.  I view that as more valuable because the Bills ending the drought was the Bills best case scenario in 2017.  We had no business winning the SB.  Our season was as good as it was going to get with what we were working with.  The rams season was as good as it was going to get.  Now we have a 2nd rd pick and they have a potential headache. 

 

 

Sammy was my favorite player,  I was pretty devastated when we traded him for Gaines and a 2nd.  I didn’t think there was any way the trade would help us improve in 2018.  I was wrong.  We improved and we now have a 2nd rd pick.  Sammy wasn’t going to fit with McD.  The actions by the Bills support this notion.  Didn’t franchise him and then traded him shortly thereafter.  Like I said before, I don’t believe both teams have to lose.  In this case both teams won.....but our win was signature and will be remembered forever in our hearts.  Forever.

 

8-3 when Gaines starts, 1-4 when he didn't.

 

Of course, we were also 3-0 in games where he started and then left with an injury and didn't return.

[CommonCents]

Sammy and Julio have identical snap percentages. 74 and change.

 

AB is at 80 percent.

 

I don't see much difference or any evidence of anything different happening in LA as far as rotations.

 

Hopkins looks like the exception with 93 percent.

 

Evans 83

DT 78

 

I mean there is a difference but Evans is one of the best blocking wideouts so that 10 percent could be a part of that? Also the Rams were one of the better offenses how many total plays did they run and how many did say the Texans run? Seems like splitting hairs 

Edited March 6, 2018 by Commonsense

[SoFFacet]

5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/chicago-bears/report-alshon-jeffery-agrees-one-year-deal-eagles

 

 

Not almost as valuable; more valuable.

 

Played WR1 snaps for them, and lead the team in yards per catch, yards per target, and TDs.  Contrast that with Gaines, whose team made the playoffs despite him not playing over 40% of the time.  Also, one guy's team is trying to re-sign him, while the other guy's team actively went and found his replacement the first time they had a chance.  One guy's team finished with the worst position group in the NFL after trading him, while the other guy's position group for his former team hummed along just fine without him.

 

I'd like for someone like yourself--who I believe is measured and intelligent with your comments--to give me some kind of fact-based argument as to why Gaines + 2nd is more valuable.  I'm willing to listen.

 

For a player like Watkins you're always going to be able to pick out a few stats in which he led his team. But the reality on the field was that on most Sundays, he was the 3rd most important Rams WR. 4th if you count Gurley. I was under the impression that it was common knowledge that Watkins was largely viewed as a disappointment this year. He did an alright job as a glorified Marquise Goodwin for the Rams, but compared to expectations that's just not what he's supposed to be. He's supposed to be on the level with Brown and Beckham. 

 

Gaines was an excellent CB for us last year. Missed games aside, there's no doubt he contributed massively to our making the playoffs. Now both Gaines and Watkins are free agents, and everything that happens going forward is really outside the scope of the trade. If the 2nd round pick booms or busts, that's a matter of proper usage of draft resources, not relevant to the grade of the trade. New contracts for Gaines and Watkins are a matter of proper usage of cap resources. 

 

In the end, both we and the Rams made the playoffs, both of the players involved are free agents, and we pocketed a very valuable draft pick.  It's possible that the trade was mutually beneficial, but at the very least it's clear that it was beneficial to us. 

 

[ddaryl]

1 hour ago, ******* said:

Reunion? Any interest?

Per Jason La confora

 

No interest.. I dont; think Watkins is agood enough or consistent enough to be a true #1 WR. I do nto think he will be paid to the extreme to be a #1 either

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, H2o said:

The Bills were 8-3 with Gaines in the lineup, 1-4 without. 

Thanks. Well, i was wrong, but the W/L is pretty telling.

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 y’all mad and I’m not get a life and goto work stop worrying about my job because I’m good on this end and forever will be losers most of you just wish to be in this position so continue working y’all little jobs for the rest of y’all lives 

 

 

 

"To all the people that have a problem with me being injured you guys go out there and play this sport it’s a 100% injury rate,” Watkins wrote. “I’m not first or last person that’s gone be injured difference from me and you guys y’all mad and I’m not get a life and goto work stop worrying about my job because I’m good on this end and forever will be losers most of you just wish to be in this position so continue working y’all little jobs for the rest of y’all lives since everyone once a response here go one have a blessed day.”

 

Watkins later posted, then deleted, a clarification on Twitter: “Message wasn’t for fans for whomever have a problem with athletes being injured.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/oct/28/bills-watkins-to-fans-continue-working-yall-little-jobs-for-the-rest-of-yall-lives

 

When you cut out that part it looks far worse than it was. Not a great look. Awkward, looked small, should never have been posted. But also not a big deal.

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

I'll repeat:  "And yeah, it's the 2nd round pick that's the difference. A pick's worth isn't determined by how well it's used. It's determined by what someone would give for it at the time at draft time. Gaines this last year plus a 2nd is absolutely better than Sammy this last year. Who they pick will be a reflection on how talented and lucky our draft team is, not on how much the pick was worth."

 

And the number of snaps Gaines played was mostly due to a knee injury that kept him out three or four games. Would've been nice if he'd stayed healthy, but he played a lot and when he played, he played very well. He forced three fumbles and had an INT. There's a reason he is going to get good enough money that we aren't expecting to be able to get him back.

 

Also worth noting that of the three games in a row in which our defense was absolutely shelled, the Jets, Saints and Chargers games on Nov. 2nd to the 19th, Gaines missed the first two and returned from injury for the 3rd, the Chargers, which was probably his worst game. Was that because he wasn't healthy yet? Dunno, but he started playing much better quite quickly.

 

But again, it's the 2nd round pick that makes this a big win for the Bills.

 

 

 

A 2nd round pick is an unknown--even good teams can miss on 2nd round picks.  If that's the tipping point, well, I'm afraid that I don't place value on the pick as much as I do on known commodities.

 

As for Gaines' missed time, the bold comment above is not entirely accurate

 

He was injured against Atlanta in week 4 and missed 26 snaps

He missed the following week's game against Cincinnati entirely

He came back to face TB in the team's next game, got injured again, and missed 31 snaps

He missed the following 3 games with the knee injury you mentioned 

He returned to play 100% of the team's defensive snaps in the next 3 games, before getting injured against Miami and missing 35 snaps

 

His availability for this team was poor.

[HappyDays]

47 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Did we?  We got a 2nd round pick and a cornerback that played 59% of the team's defensive snaps, and looks unlikely to be retained.

 

And millions of dollars in future cap space. We were never going to pay Sammy what he wants. So our choice was take a one-year rental in a year where we were not going to contend for a Super Bowl, or collect a 2nd rounder and a valuable CB. When those were the available options it's a no-brainer that we won this trade. If you want to argue that the Rams didn't lose the trade, there's still an argument to be made there. But if Sammy signs elsewhere I think that will do it.

Edited March 6, 2018 by HappyDays