Nihilarian Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 The OP has this whole thing all screwed up. Because if Mark Pike played in the NFL for Buffalo for 12 years and he calls that a miss then Steve Tasker is also a miss. The average lifespan of an NFL player is only three years and it's so special just to even make an NFL roster. Not to mention making the NFL roster of a 12-4 NFL team already loaded with talent. Basically, you can't compare the draft classes of playoff teams vs teams that don't even have a winning record because the chance a draft pick makes it on that bad team is far superior to that of a playoff team. Then, players taken in the first and second round should be automatic starters and if not then it's a miss. Unless that player eventually becomes a starter and plays a few years. Arron Maybin = Miss! Mark Pike Hit! Bottom line is that any player who makes a roster and starts for three years should be a hit. DB Roland Mitchell played 9 years in the NFL and even though he only started a year and a half he should be a hit as he surpassed that three-year average. LB David Brandon played in the NFL 11 years and even though he didn't make the Buffalo Bills roster he did make it with SD, Cleve. FB Jamie Mueller played for Buffalo for four years with 32 starts.
BuffaloRush Posted March 6, 2018 Author Posted March 6, 2018 4 hours ago, mjt328 said: Excellent topic, and I very much appreciate the work that you put in. But I do think you are missing the overall picture when it came to Bill Polian's time in Buffalo. First of all, Polian was the Pro-Personnel Director in 1984 and 1985. So although he was not technically the "man at the top", he was absolutely instrumental in the draft that brought us Bruce Smith, Andre Reed and Frank Reich. Second, you have to consider how the NFL Draft was structured at the time. There were 12 Rounds, instead of 7. Regardless of the whopping number of picks, this made it no less difficult to find a decent NFL player after the 3rd-4th Round. If you want to rank GMs on a similar percentage basis, then you would probably need to factor in hits/misses on Undrafted Free-Agents for the more recent guys (Levy, Brandon, Nix, Whaley). Don't forget, in 1988 the Bills were without a 1st Rounder. And in 1989, they were without a 1st AND 2nd Rounder. This was due to the Cornelius Bennett trade (which Polian was responsible for), which yielded us a fantastic defensive player who was vital in all of our Super Bowl years. Contrast this with Brandon's draft, where he got an EXTRA 1st Round Pick for trading away a Pro-Bowl left tackle in Jason Peters. Since the NFL was without Free Agency during those years, General Managers were also forced to find veteran help off the scrap heap/waiver wire. They couldn't just throw money at a big name player. In doing this, Polian still managed to land Hall of Famer James Lofton, the greatest special teams player in history Steve Tasker and the leader of our O-Line Kent Hull when the USFL folded. Not to mention guys like Kenneth Davis (Thurman's backup) and John Davis (starting Right Guard). As others have mentioned, you also may want to reconsider your standards for a "hit" and a "miss." Just because a player isn't a Pro-Bowl Star, that doesn't mean he wasn't a successful draft pick. The Bills had an absolutely LOADED roster. So they had several good players (who could have started elsewhere), sitting the bench for years and years. Guys like Ronnie Harmon, Mark Pike, Butch Rolle and Carwell Gardner aren't considered household names 25-30 years later. But they were good NFL players, who stuck around in the league for a long time. And finally, Polian was responsible for hiring a Hall of Fame Coach in Marv Levy to put everything together. This is excellent context and I agree with many of your points. In my original post, I mentioned that Polian made many other great moves outside of the draft. I agree that Polian was instrumental with other draft picks, however I’m sticking to only assessing GM’s given the time that they had the official title. I know that Russ Brandon had limited input with the draft when he was GM, but I’m evaluating Russ Brandon as GM since he held the title in 2008 and 2009. The point about 12 rounds vs 7 rounds is valid. I don’t think it’s fair to discount any portion of a draft, as both good and bad players were selected after the 7th. Where I disagree if your assessment of what makes a player a successful pick. You have to think there’s a certain ROI on each player drafted. For instance if you draft a player in the Top 10 of Round 1, you expect them to play at a Pro Bowl Level. That’s why I’m not giving “hits” to a player like Ronnie Harmon for instance. He played 4 years with the Bills and was a nice pass catching RB. But is that really 1st round value? I don’t believe it is. It’s not surprising that there’s disagreements with this list. What makes a draft pick successful is very subjective. This is my list 3 minutes ago, Nihilarian said: The OP has this whole thing all screwed up. Because if Mark Pike played in the NFL for Buffalo for 12 years and he calls that a miss then Steve Tasker is also a miss. The average lifespan of an NFL player is only three years and it's so special just to even make an NFL roster. Not to mention making the NFL roster of a 12-4 NFL team already loaded with talent. Basically, you can't compare the draft classes of playoff teams vs teams that don't even have a winning record because the chance a draft pick makes it on that bad team is far superior to that of a playoff team. Then, players taken in the first and second round should be automatic starters and if not then it's a miss. Unless that player eventually becomes a starter and plays a few years. Arron Maybin = Miss! Mark Pike Hit! Bottom line is that any player who makes a roster and starts for three years should be a hit. DB Roland Mitchell played 9 years in the NFL and even though he only started a year and a half he should be a hit as he surpassed that three-year average. LB David Brandon played in the NFL 11 years and even though he didn't make the Buffalo Bills roster he did make it with SD, Cleve. FB Jamie Mueller played for Buffalo for four years with 32 starts. sorry but I don’t agree. I think that you are being was to generous in terms of constituting a “hit.” Also how can Tasker be a “miss” when he was never drafted by the Bills? Like I said, Pike is a close call It’s nice to see that you have different ideas though. Maybe you can start your own draft evaluations too. 1
mjt328 Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said: Where I disagree if your assessment of what makes a player a successful pick. You have to think there’s a certain ROI on each player drafted. For instance if you draft a player in the Top 10 of Round 1, you expect them to play at a Pro Bowl Level. That’s why I’m not giving “hits” to a player like Ronnie Harmon for instance. He played 4 years with the Bills and was a nice pass catching RB. But is that really 1st round value? I don’t believe it is. It’s not surprising that there’s disagreements with this list. What makes a draft pick successful is very subjective. To me, a player is either successful in the NFL... or he isn't. Where he was drafted really doesn't matter. For instance, fans like to rag on Donte Whitner because he wasn't the quality one may "expect" from a Top 10 Pick. But at the end of the day, the guy played 11 years in the NFL. He even made three Pro Bowls. The guy was a solid pick by Marv Levy. The same can be said for Ronnie Harmon, who played 12 years and made a Pro Bowl himself. Now don't get me wrong. GMs absolutely need to be hitting on those 1st Round Picks. Those are the prospects who should be slam-dunks. I just don't think Player A should be held to a higher standard, just because he was selected before Player B. Edited March 6, 2018 by mjt328
BuffaloRush Posted March 6, 2018 Author Posted March 6, 2018 1 hour ago, mjt328 said: To me, a player is either successful in the NFL... or he isn't. Where he was drafted really doesn't matter. For instance, fans like to rag on Donte Whitner because he wasn't the quality one may "expect" from a Top 10 Pick. But at the end of the day, the guy played 11 years in the NFL. He even made three Pro Bowls. The guy was a solid pick by Marv Levy. The same can be said for Ronnie Harmon, who played 12 years and made a Pro Bowl himself. Now don't get me wrong. GMs absolutely need to be hitting on those 1st Round Picks. Those are the prospects who should be slam-dunks. I just don't think Player A should be held to a higher standard, just because he was selected before Player B. That is fine - I just have a bit of a different view. Like I said, it’s an arbitrary subject. I do feel you have to look at where a player was drafted to determine how successful of a pick they were. If if you are drafting in the Top 10, you need that player to be in Top 5 at their position. If you draft a WR 3rd overall and he puts up average numbers as a starter, IMO that is not good value. I also don’t feel that you can give a GM credit for a pick, after that player leaves the organization. You reference Whiter - that’s a perfect example. He was an average starter for the Bills. Most of his success came after he left the team. You can give credit to Levy for a performance on a team other than the Bills. Of course, this is just my own personal take. I am sure everyone’s criteria would be difference . 16 hours ago, ticketssince61 said: There are 2 fundamental differences between Polian's era and those you compare him to: 1. There were many more rounds then so the misses are much greater 2. There was less ability to see players then: a.combine was not so important b. fewer games were not all available on TV, c technology for viewing was much more rudimentary ,, Absolutely these are all great points. Despite these, he still made some excellent picks. On the other hand, he also missed quite a bit too
without a drought Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 As long as the Bills get their franchise QB in the the 12th this year, I'll say Beane may stick around for another year.
Sky Diver Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 (edited) Jamie Mueller and Chris Hale weren't misses and Mark Pike was one of the best special teams players in the NFL. Edited March 6, 2018 by Sky Diver
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 18 hours ago, oldmanfan said: Mark Pike and Carwell Garner were certainly not misses. Agreed there are a few other late round picks that contributed over several seasons and contracts, but ruled as misses.
Nihilarian Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 3 hours ago, BuffaloRush said: sorry but I don’t agree. I think that you are being was to generous in terms of constituting a “hit.” It’s nice to see that you have different ideas though. Maybe you can start your own draft evaluations too. 3 I'm sorry that I wasted my time attempting to reason with you. You are certainly entitled to your opinion no matter how ridiculous it is. 1
Guest K-GunJimKelly12 Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 (edited) I haven't read all the rules to this analysis so could someone answer a question for me? Are we saying that hitting on a guy like Thurman Thomas or Bruce Smith is equivalent to hitting on a guy like Eric Wood or Andy Levitre as far as this thread is concerned? If so I think we need to go back and start from scratch. Edited March 6, 2018 by K-GunJimKelly12
Mango Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, K-GunJimKelly12 said: I haven't read all the rules to this analysis so could someone answer a question for me? Are we saying that hitting on a guy like Thurman Thomas or Bruce Smith is equivalent to hitting on a guy like Eric Wood or Andy Levitre as far as this thread is concerned? If so I think we need to go back and start from scratch. He didn’t outline any rules. It was totally arbitrary. That’s basically what people are asking for. 1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said: That is fine - I just have a bit of a different view. Like I said, it’s an arbitrary subject. I do feel you have to look at where a player was drafted to determine how successful of a pick they were. If if you are drafting in the Top 10, you need that player to be in Top 5 at their position. If you draft a WR 3rd overall and he puts up average numbers as a starter, IMO that is not good value. I also don’t feel that you can give a GM credit for a pick, after that player leaves the organization. You reference Whiter - that’s a perfect example. He was an average starter for the Bills. Most of his success came after he left the team. You can give credit to Levy for a performance on a team other than the Bills. Of course, this is just my own personal take. I am sure everyone’s criteria would be difference . Absolutely these are all great points. Despite these, he still made some excellent picks. On the other hand, he also missed quite a bit too That’s fine. But you’re wildly inconsistent. How does a 7th round pick with a 10 year NFL career then become a miss? It doesn’t make any sense. You don’t follow your own rules. This is a topic that I am sure could be quantified with some sort of algorithm, which none of us are qualified to do. But as said above, this doesn’t need to be binary and should have a middle section or two.
BuffaloRush Posted March 7, 2018 Author Posted March 7, 2018 3 hours ago, Mango said: He didn’t outline any rules. It was totally arbitrary. That’s basically what people are asking for. That’s fine. But you’re wildly inconsistent. How does a 7th round pick with a 10 year NFL career then become a miss? It doesn’t make any sense. You don’t follow your own rules. This is a topic that I am sure could be quantified with some sort of algorithm, which none of us are qualified to do. But as said above, this doesn’t need to be binary and should have a middle section or two. Are we really going to split hairs over Mark Pike? Give me a freaking break. These ratings are what they are and I stand by them. Sorry if you disagree but as I stated earlier what someone considers “success” is arbitrary. 4 hours ago, Sky Diver said: A Jamie Mueller and Chris Hale weren't misses and Mark Pike was one of the best special teams players in the NFL. Jaime Mueller never lived up to a 3rd round draft pick status. Though I think you can make an argument. I just say no way chris Hale!?!? Come on now. Problem is people are too liberal with assigning a “hit.” Just because you recognize a Bills player by name, doesn’t mean they were a great draft pick.
Mango Posted March 7, 2018 Posted March 7, 2018 2 hours ago, BuffaloRush said: Are we really going to split hairs over Mark Pike? Give me a freaking break. These ratings are what they are and I stand by them. Sorry if you disagree but as I stated earlier what someone considers “success” is arbitrary. Jaime Mueller never lived up to a 3rd round draft pick status. Though I think you can make an argument. I just say no way chris Hale!?!? Come on now. Problem is people are too liberal with assigning a “hit.” Just because you recognize a Bills player by name, doesn’t mean they were a great draft pick. Dude, you aren’t linear about what you consider a hit or a miss. There are now three pages of posts just asking you to define a set of perameters. You just keep saying “it’s arbitrary” and it’s your opinion so deal with it. I have asked a few times, what constitutes a 7th round hit for you, and you’ve yet to provide feedback. If you want to have a discussion, have one. If you want to just peddle your own opinion, go write in your diary.
BuffaloRush Posted March 7, 2018 Author Posted March 7, 2018 22 minutes ago, Mango said: Dude, you aren’t linear about what you consider a hit or a miss. There are now three pages of posts just asking you to define a set of perameters. You just keep saying “it’s arbitrary” and it’s your opinion so deal with it. I have asked a few times, what constitutes a 7th round hit for you, and you’ve yet to provide feedback. If you want to have a discussion, have one. If you want to just peddle your own opinion, go write in your diary. I have discussed this already. I define a hit as a player who meets or exceeds what you’d expect from their draft value. A 7th round hit would be a player who makes significant contribution on both offense or defense and yes occasionally starts. The problem with trying to quantify it, is that everything is situational. There is no set formula. If you read my review of Russ Brandon, Demetrius Bell was a 7th round pick that I would consider a hit. He was by no means a star, but he did start a few years for the Bills at an average playing level. He exceeded his draft status. This isn’t hard. it seems like some don’t like the fact that I don’t consider fringe players like a Chris Hale or Mark Pike hits. Or they don’t like the fact that I pointed how on Polian missed quite a bit in the draft. As a result other take passive cheap shots and say “write in your personal diary.” Thats fine because I knew these lists would spark a lot of conversation. I can only imagine when I analyze Doug Whaley - one of the most polarizing figures in Bills history
Big Turk Posted March 7, 2018 Posted March 7, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said: I have discussed this already. I define a hit as a player who meets or exceeds what you’d expect from their draft value. A 7th round hit would be a player who makes significant contribution on both offense or defense and yes occasionally starts. The problem with trying to quantify it, is that everything is situational. There is no set formula. If you read my review of Russ Brandon, Demetrius Bell was a 7th round pick that I would consider a hit. He was by no means a star, but he did start a few years for the Bills at an average playing level. He exceeded his draft status. This isn’t hard. it seems like some don’t like the fact that I don’t consider fringe players like a Chris Hale or Mark Pike hits. Or they don’t like the fact that I pointed how on Polian missed quite a bit in the draft. As a result other take passive cheap shots and say “write in your personal diary.” Thats fine because I knew these lists would spark a lot of conversation. I can only imagine when I analyze Doug Whaley - one of the most polarizing figures in Bills history This is a ridiculous assertion...I suggest you go grab some data on how many 7th round picks meet that criteria...think you'll be shockingly surprised at how few... The reason why I say this is I have such data(including the biggest combine database you will find anywhere pieced together from multiple sources and hand done by myself going back to the beginning of the combine...over 7K players). Suffice to say if we looked at percentage of all 7th round picks who fit this criteria you'd probably be looking at under 5%...by far the biggest case scenario is they dont play a game in the NFL ever. The problem is you don't have a fundamental understanding of what quantifies a "success" at on a per round basis so its basically made up by you versus what is actually a success in reality. Edited March 7, 2018 by matter2003
Bag of Milk Posted March 7, 2018 Posted March 7, 2018 (edited) I am not a fan of all of this revisionist history when it comes to Bill Polian They usually don't take into consideration the entirety of what "Franchise" or "Team Building" encompasses. The draft is one part. But look up any GM and you will see huge misses and a success rate that is probably lower than you expected. Ralph falling into hiring Bill Polian was the luckiest and most fortunate thing that happened in Bills history. It was the single act MOST responsible for our proceeding glory years. Polian had a vision of success an untiring work effort and a will to demand excellence that permeated the entire oranization. He demanded that everyone be championship caliber, off the field from the secretaries, to the janitors to ticket office window to NFL side-players , coaches, scouts, etc. He was successfull in ALL aspects of team building and that is WHY he is so admired in the NFL For his efforts building the Bills, Panthers, and Colts Bill Polian was voted Executive of the year 5 times! Yes. 5 times! He has said a few things lately that I have shaken my head at, but I will always tip my hat to Bill Polian and thank him for putting together a team that had one of the best runs in NFL history. P.S. Not every executive is in the Hall of Fame, the ones that are ? pretty, pretty, pretty, good. Edited March 7, 2018 by Bag of Milk
Mango Posted March 7, 2018 Posted March 7, 2018 2 hours ago, BuffaloRush said: I have discussed this already. I define a hit as a player who meets or exceeds what you’d expect from their draft value. A 7th round hit would be a player who makes significant contribution on both offense or defense and yes occasionally starts. The problem with trying to quantify it, is that everything is situational. There is no set formula. If you read my review of Russ Brandon, Demetrius Bell was a 7th round pick that I would consider a hit. He was by no means a star, but he did start a few years for the Bills at an average playing level. He exceeded his draft status. This isn’t hard. it seems like some don’t like the fact that I don’t consider fringe players like a Chris Hale or Mark Pike hits. Or they don’t like the fact that I pointed how on Polian missed quite a bit in the draft. As a result other take passive cheap shots and say “write in your personal diary.” Thats fine because I knew these lists would spark a lot of conversation. I can only imagine when I analyze Doug Whaley - one of the most polarizing figures in Bills history How does that differ from a 4th round pick?
danc Posted March 7, 2018 Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 10:20 PM, ticketssince61 said: There are 2 fundamental differences between Polian's era and those you compare him to: 1. There were many more rounds then so the misses are much greater 2. There was less ability to see players then: a.combine was not so important b. fewer games were not all available on TV, c technology for viewing was much more rudimentary ,, For what it's worth; There were more rounds then, however there were 28 teams drafting not 32. There were also not compensation picks added back then. An equivalent number of players drafted back then as compared to today would be 8 to 9 rounds. If you want to compare based on rounds 8 to 9 is more accurate. An exact number is difficult because the number of comp picks vary each year.
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted March 7, 2018 Posted March 7, 2018 (edited) 7 hours ago, BuffaloRush said: Are we really going to split hairs over Mark Pike? Give me a freaking break. These ratings are what they are and I stand by them. Sorry if you disagree but as I stated earlier what someone considers “success” is arbitrary. Jaime Mueller never lived up to a 3rd round draft pick status. Though I think you can make an argument. I just say no way chris Hale!?!? Come on now. Problem is people are too liberal with assigning a “hit.” Just because you recognize a Bills player by name, doesn’t mean they were a great draft pick. Re Chris Hale A 7th round pick that played in almost 50 games is a miss? Listen you talked about drafts being garbage. I suggest this comparative analysis might be destined for a dumpster. Not only is the hit vs miss grade seemingly arbitrary (see Leon seals is a hit while Martin Mathew drafted later and started longer is a miss?) Polian’s hit percent is based upon 5 additional rounds of scrub players that in Marv and Brandons world were UDFAs. More objectively using gs and gp vs round picked and expiration I’m getting about 18 or 19 hits in the first 7 rds vs 42 picks. No wizard but hands down better than the other two mentioned. FAIL Edited March 7, 2018 by Over 29 years of fanhood
BuffaloRush Posted March 8, 2018 Author Posted March 8, 2018 19 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: Re Chris Hale A 7th round pick that played in almost 50 games is a miss? Listen you talked about drafts being garbage. I suggest this comparative analysis might be destined for a dumpster. Not only is the hit vs miss grade seemingly arbitrary (see Leon seals is a hit while Martin Mathew drafted later and started longer is a miss?) Polian’s hit percent is based upon 5 additional rounds of scrub players that in Marv and Brandons world were UDFAs. More objectively using gs and gp vs round picked and expiration I’m getting about 18 or 19 hits in the first 7 rds vs 42 picks. No wizard but hands down better than the other two mentioned. FAIL Yes Chris Hale was a huge success in the NFL. A pick that defines a GM. (Eye roll) Many problems with your analysis. If you want to define a successful pick based on games started or games played it is very short sighted. As is giving a GM credit for a hit of a player based on his career outside of the Bills. You have to consider context. By your definition Todd Collins in the 2nd round would be a hit, despite the fact he was a huge disappointment for the Bills. I’d suggest the only FAIL is your logic - and your attempts to put down someone just because you are personally hurt they don’t share the same opinion. I stand by my analysis and will continue...
Big Turk Posted March 8, 2018 Posted March 8, 2018 (edited) 42 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: Yes Chris Hale was a huge success in the NFL. A pick that defines a GM. (Eye roll) Many problems with your analysis. If you want to define a successful pick based on games started or games played it is very short sighted. As is giving a GM credit for a hit of a player based on his career outside of the Bills. You have to consider context. By your definition Todd Collins in the 2nd round would be a hit, despite the fact he was a huge disappointment for the Bills. I’d suggest the only FAIL is your logic - and your attempts to put down someone just because you are personally hurt they don’t share the same opinion. I stand by my analysis and will continue... Again, you are just simply wrong. 50 games played as a 7th rounder is probably in the top 3% of all 7th round picks...if that is a miss for a 7th round pick your criteria doesn't make any sense. As for credit drafting a player that doesn't play well for your team, but goes on to have a good career, that doesn't make much sense either. Many times a player gets drafted into a system or scheme that asks him to do things he simply isn't very good at. Or the scheme completely changes after their rookie year when the coach gets fired. This is suprisingly common because coaches fall in love with measurables and tend to think those can overcome what they see on film many times because they can "coach them up" properly, or they become round pegs in a square hole in a new scheme, especially on defense. Often times this fails. So in essence what you are saying is its the players fault that he got drafted by the wrong team. How does THAT make any sense. Unless your claim is that the GM and staff should know better and then literally every staff in the NFL fails this at times. I think your fundamental knowledge of how football works on a nuts and bolts level is the FAIL here.... Edited March 8, 2018 by matter2003 1
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