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Posted (edited)

It's time to analyze an NFL Hall of Famer and one of the Bills greatest GM's ever....Bill Polian.  Recently Polian has been the target of much controversy based on comments that some would deem to be outrageous.  But how was Polian in the draft for the Bills?  

 

It will surprise you but from a Hits and Misses standpoint, the final number is nowhere as high as you might image.  In fact, I'll say he's the lowest so far and below you'll see why.
 

Before we rank Polian, here's the standings so far

 

1. Russ Brandon: 28%

2. Marv Levy: 25%

 

 

1986 Draft

1986 1 Ronnie Harmon 16 RB 1997 0 1 1 63 181           615 2774 10 582 6076 24     Iowa
1986 1 Will Wolford 20 T 1998 0 3 13 75 191                           Vanderbilt
1986 3 Leonard Burton 77 C 1992 0 0 0 7 60                           South Carolina
1986 5 Carl Byrum 111 RB 1988 0 0 1 5 41           132 527 0 18 127 1     Miss. Valley St.
1986 7 Bob Williams 168 TE   0 0 0                               Penn St.
1986 7 Mark Pike 178 DE 1998 0 0 0 10 173                         1.0 Georgia Tech
1986 7 Butch Rolle 180 TE 1993 0 0 1 2 124                 38 213 11     Michigan St.
1986 8 Tony Furjanic 202 LB 1988 0 0 0 2 28                           Notre Dame
1986 9 Reggie Bynum 222 WR 1987 0 0 0 0 1                 2 24 0     Oregon St.
1986 10 Guy Teafatiller 251 DT 1987 0 0 0 1 3                         1.5 Illinois
1986 11 Tony Garbarczyk 278 DE 1987 0 0 0 0 2                           Wake Forest
1986 11 Billy Witt 282 DE 1987 0 0 0 1 2                           North Alabama
1986 12 Brian McClure 313 QB 1987 0 0 0 1 1 20 38 181 0 3 2 4 0           Bowling Green
1986 12 Derek Christian 331 LB   0 0 0                               West Virginia

 

Hits 1 Misses 13 = 7%

 

OUCH The big selecting is Wolford who became of the NFL's best LT.  I am not going to give Harmon a miss.  He was dynamic RB when it came to catching the ball but I don't this his production warranted #16.  Butch Rolle and Mike Pike are known among Bills fans but neither was anything more than a marginal contributor.  Rolle was a 3rd string TE that had a fun streak of catching TE's and Pike was a great special teams guy but IMO neither were starters and don't warrant a "hit."

 

7 1 Shane Conlan 8 LB 1995 0 3 8 59 120                       5 7.0 Penn St.
1987 2 Nate Odomes 29 DB 1996 0 2 7 53 115                       26 3.0 Wisconsin
1987 2 Roland Mitchell 33 DB 1994 0 0 1 15 89                       6 1.0 Texas Tech
1987 3 David Brandon 60 LB 1997 0 0 1 20 123                       4 7.0 Memphis
1987 3 Jamie Mueller 78 RB 1990 0 0 2 8 57           238 901 4 28 169 1     Benedictine
1987 4 Leon Seals 109 DE 1992 0 0 2 22 82                       1 14.5 Jackson St.
1987 7 Kerry Porter 171 RB 1990 0 0 0 0 35           16 57 0 4 44 0     Washington St.
1987 8 Bruce Mesner 209 NT 1987 0 0 0 1 11                           Maryland
1987 9 Keith McKeller 227 TE 1993 0 0 4 16 80                 124 1464 11     Jacksonville St.
1987 11 Howard Ballard 283 T 1998 0 2 10 67 170                           Alabama A&M
1987 12 Joe McGrail 311 NT 1987 0 0 0 0 2                           Delaware

 

5 Hits/6 Misses = 45%

 

Overall a good draft.  I am giving Conlan a "hit" as he developed in a Pro Bowl player for 3 seasons.  Mueller is probably the closest to a hit from the group, but I really don't feel he was more than a blocking FB and that his production doesn't match his status.  Great picks with Seals, McKeller and Ballard toward the end.

 

988 2 Thurman Thomas HOF 40 RB 2000 2 5 10 112 182 0 1 0 0 0 2877 12074 65 472 4458 23     Oklahoma St.
1988 3 Bernard Ford 65 WR 1990 0 0 0 1 24                 17 176 2     Central Florida
1988 5 Ezekial Gadson 123 DB   0 0 0                               Pittsburgh
1988 5 Kirk Roach 135 K   0 0 0                               West. Carolina
1988 6 Dan Murray 150 LB 1990 0 0 0 0 4                           East Stroudsburg
1988 7 Tim Borcky 177 T   0 0 0                               Memphis
1988 7 Bo Wright 184 RB   0 0 0                               Alabama
1988 8 John Hagy 204 DB 1990 0 0 1 6 28                       2   Texas
1988 8 Jeff Wright 213 NT 1994 0 0 5 30 98                       1 31.5 Central Missouri St.
1988 9 Carlton Bailey 235 LB 1997 0 0 6 44 142                       1 10.0 North Carolina
1988 10 Martin Mayhew 262 DB 1996 0 0 7 41 118                       21 1.0 Florida St.
1988 11 Pete Curkendall 289 DT   0 0 0                               Penn St.
1988 12 John Driscoll 309 T   0 0 0                               New Hampshire
1988 12 Tom Erlandson 316 LB 1988 0 0 0 0 4                          

 

3 Hits/11 Misses = 21%

 

OK Thurman goes without saying.  TREMENDOUS pick.  The rest?  Eh not so much.  Bailey was a great late round pick who turned into a capable starter.  As I've stated before Wright IMO was the weak link on the defense and if Ted Washington falls to the Bills, they might have won a Super Bowl.  Still Wright was great value in Round 8.  Martin Mayhew did turn out to be a decent starter in the NFL but not for the Bills

 

89 3 Don Beebe 82 WR 1997 0 0 4 33 116           4 28 0 219 3416 23     Chadron St.
1989 4 John Kolesar 109 WR   0 0 0                               Michigan
1989 5 Michael Andrews 137 DB   0 0 0                               Alcorn St.
1989 6 Sean Doctor 164 RB   0 0 0                               Marshall
1989 7 Brian Jordan 173 DB 1991 0 0 2 13 36                       5 4.0 Richmond
1989 7 Chris Hale 193 DB 1992 0 0 0 4 43                       1   USC
1989 9 Pat Rabold 249 DT   0 0 0                               Wyoming
1989 10 Carlo Cheattom 276 DB   0 0 0                               Auburn
1989 11 Richard Harvey 305 LB 2000 0 0 5 33 143                       2 13.0 Tulane
1989 12 Derrell Marshall 332 T   0 0 0                               USC

 

1 Hit/9 Misses = 10%

 

WOW what a bad draft.  Yes I know they didn't have a 1st or 2nd rounder and Beebe in the 3rd was a great pick.  The rest of this draft was straight garbage.  No late round magic this year.

 

990 1 James Williams 16 DB 1996 0 0 2 17 70                       11   Fresno St.
1990 2 Carwell Gardner 42 FB 1997 0 0 0 7 101           211 749 10 36 281 1     Louisville
1990 3 Glenn Parker 69 G 2001 0 0 9 57 174                           Arizona
1990 4 Eddie Fuller 100 RB 1993 0 0 0 0 20           6 39 0 2 17 0     LSU
1990 6 John Nies 154 P 1990 0 0 0 0 4                           Arizona
1990 7 Brent Griffith 166 G   0 0 0                               Minnesota-Duluth
1990 7 Brent Collins 170 LB   0 0 0                               Carson-Newman
1990 7 Fred DeRiggi 181 NT 1990 0 0 0 0 2                           Syracuse
1990 8 Marvcus Patton 208 LB 2002 0 0 9 72 208                       17 27.5 UCLA
1990 9 Clarkston Hines 238 WR   0 0 0                               Duke
1990 10 Mike Lodish 265 NT 2000 0 0 1 22 166                         8.5 UCLA
1990 11 Al Edwards 292 WR 1992 0 0 0 4 37           2 25 0 26 264 1     NW State (LA)

 

4 Hits/8 Misses = 33%

 

Again not a stellar draft.  JD Williams was a huge whiff by Polian.  He did have some late round success with Patton and I am giving Lodish and Edwards marginal "Hits" given their contributions despite low draft status.

 

91 1 Henry Jones 26 DB 2002 1 1 8 58 158                       18 5.0 Illinois
1991 2 Phil Hansen 54 DE 2001 0 0 10 62 156                       1 61.5 North Dakota St.
1991 3 Darryl Wren 82 DB 1994 0 0 0 4 20                       3   Pittsburg St.
1991 5 Shawn Wilbourn 138 DB   0 0 0                               Long Beach St.
1991 6 Millard Hamilton 166 WR   0 0 0                                
1991 7 Amir Rasul 194 RB   0 0 0                               Florida A&M
1991 8 Brad Lamb 222 WR 1993 0 0 0 2 8                 7 139 0     Anderson (IN)
1991 9 Mark Maddox 249 LB 2000 0 0 3 24 111                       2 2.5 Northern Michigan
1991 10 Tony De Lorenzo 277 G   0 0 0                               New Mexico St.
1991 11 Dean Kirkland 305 G   0 0 0                               Washington
1991 12 Stephen Clark 333 TE   0 0 0                               Texas

 

3 hits/8 misses = 27%

Solid drafting at the top - Jones and Hansen were long term starters and huge contributors.  Maddox eventually played well enough to break the starting lineup for a few seasons.  Excellent return for a 9th round pick

 

TOTAL SCORE =  17/72 = 24%

One thing I can say about Polian with the exception of 1986 he did hit quite a bit on his 1st and 2nd round picks - and that's what you need to you to be successful.  Sure sometimes he missed, but for the most part he found good players toward the top of the draft.  He also avoided drafting any high round busts on his resume.  However, he also had many swings in the draft and missed quite a bit of picks which really surprised me.  Also Polian was involved in many stellar personnel moves outside of the draft which really helped the football team as well.    

 

But oddly enough  - the greatest GM in Bills in history has a lower success rate than Russ Brandon:

 

Current standings:

 

1. Russ Brandon = 27%

2. Marv Levy = 25%

3. Bill Polian = 23%

 

Edited by BuffaloRush
Posted
1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

Mark Pike and  Carwell Garner were certainly not misses.

 

Well both are definitely debatable.   IMO I don't think that the Bills got a solid ROI on Gardner as a second round pick.  Perhaps it was question to draft a FB in Round 2 to begin with.  My thinking is that the team expected Gardiner to play a bigger role that he did.   While he was a competent starter at FB, I'm not sure if he lived up to draft status.

 

Pike make some nice contributions as a Special Teams player and certainly was a good role player.  It's close but I don't feel he did enough to warrant a "hit" but again, I can see why you'd think that way.

 

Regardless, the total score for Polian doesn't change much even with these two.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Marv Levy wasn’t 31%. 

 

You are right Jay.  I decided to change Whitner to a miss which brings his % down to 25%

 

16 picks - 4 hits = 25%

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

I think your breakdown was very interesting.  Glad you did it.  His big hits were really big though.  Four hall of famers.

 

Well really only 1 HOF'er but many solid picks.  Despite this, I'm surprised how many chances he at and how many times he missed

Posted
11 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

You are right Jay.  I decided to change Whitner to a miss which brings his % down to 25%

 

16 picks - 4 hits = 25%

 

Well really only 1 HOF'er but many solid picks.  Despite this, I'm surprised how many chances he at and how many times he missed

Brad Butler wasn’t a hit either.

Posted

Re: Rolle and Pike. 

 

This is before my football watching time, however I was actually alive, but just a thought. 

 

How can you list "marginal contributors" for two 7th round picks as misses?  They were 7th round picks!!!!  What type of contribution would warrant a hit for a 7th rounder? You should define what you consider an absolute hit v. absolute miss. 

 

Also these were 12 round drafts, I would either drop rounds 8-12, change expectations based on draft spot, or include UDFA in the later era's just to keep things streamlined. Apples to apples. In 2018, if a 7th rounder makes the roster 2 years in a row, you basically killed the pick. 

 

 

  • Thank you (+1) 1
Posted
9 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Well, Jim and Andre and Thurman and Bruce. He was at least involved, right?

He only drafted Thurman. 

Posted
7 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Well, Jim and Andre and Thurman and Bruce. He was at least involved, right?

He did not draft Jim Kelly and technically Terry Bledsoe was GM when Bruce was drafted.  He certainly did draft Thurman.  Probably his best pick ever

Posted
Just now, BuffaloRush said:

He did not draft Jim Kelly and technically Terry Bledsoe was GM when Bruce was drafted.  He certainly did draft Thurman.  Probably his best pick ever

Good thing you and stony corrected me.  Memory fails the old man at times.

1 minute ago, stony said:

Bruce kinda drafts himself.  No?

Yeah but someone still has to hand in the card

Posted
1 minute ago, Mango said:

Re: Rolle and Pike. 

 

This is before my football watching time, however I was actually alive, but just a thought. 

 

How can you list "marginal contributors" for two 7th round picks as misses?  They were 7th round picks!!!!  What type of contribution would warrant a hit for a 7th rounder? You should define what you consider an absolute hit v. absolute miss. 

 

Also these were 12 round drafts, I would either drop rounds 8-12, change expectations based on draft spot, or include UDFA in the later era's just to keep things streamlined. Apples to apples. In 2018, if a 7th rounder makes the roster 2 years in a row, you basically killed the pick. 

 

 

 

I do see your point.  As I stated given Pike's 7th round status, it's very close.    Rolle was really a 3rd string Tight End that gained notoriety for being an end zone target.  But he was more or less a novelty.  

 

Even if I do consider them to be "hits" it doesn't change Polian's score much

Posted
2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Good thing you and stony corrected me.  Memory fails the old man at times.

Yeah but someone still has to hand in the card

Haha.  Fair enough.  For the record, I think he was a good GM.  He just happened to inherit a lot of the faces we all associate with the glory years.  

Posted
5 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

I do see your point.  As I stated given Pike's 7th round status, it's very close.    Rolle was really a 3rd string Tight End that gained notoriety for being an end zone target.  But he was more or less a novelty.  

 

Even if I do consider them to be "hits" it doesn't change Polian's score much

 

 

Total aside. Butch Rolle is a total animal at 53 years old. 

 

Butch Rolle Net Worth

Posted
3 minutes ago, stony said:

Haha.  Fair enough.  For the record, I think he was a good GM.  He just happened to inherit a lot of the faces we all associate with the glory years.  

Right I can agree with you.  He was also involved in many under the radar personnel moves that really helped the team.  He also assembled a very good team to help him including his successor John Butler.  He just missed quite a bit in the draft and that I didn't expect to see

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