BuffaloRush Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 (edited) It's time to analyze an NFL Hall of Famer and one of the Bills greatest GM's ever....Bill Polian. Recently Polian has been the target of much controversy based on comments that some would deem to be outrageous. But how was Polian in the draft for the Bills? It will surprise you but from a Hits and Misses standpoint, the final number is nowhere as high as you might image. In fact, I'll say he's the lowest so far and below you'll see why. Before we rank Polian, here's the standings so far 1. Russ Brandon: 28% 2. Marv Levy: 25% 1986 Draft 1986 1 Ronnie Harmon 16 RB 1997 0 1 1 63 181 615 2774 10 582 6076 24 Iowa 1986 1 Will Wolford 20 T 1998 0 3 13 75 191 Vanderbilt 1986 3 Leonard Burton 77 C 1992 0 0 0 7 60 South Carolina 1986 5 Carl Byrum 111 RB 1988 0 0 1 5 41 132 527 0 18 127 1 Miss. Valley St. 1986 7 Bob Williams 168 TE 0 0 0 Penn St. 1986 7 Mark Pike 178 DE 1998 0 0 0 10 173 1.0 Georgia Tech 1986 7 Butch Rolle 180 TE 1993 0 0 1 2 124 38 213 11 Michigan St. 1986 8 Tony Furjanic 202 LB 1988 0 0 0 2 28 Notre Dame 1986 9 Reggie Bynum 222 WR 1987 0 0 0 0 1 2 24 0 Oregon St. 1986 10 Guy Teafatiller 251 DT 1987 0 0 0 1 3 1.5 Illinois 1986 11 Tony Garbarczyk 278 DE 1987 0 0 0 0 2 Wake Forest 1986 11 Billy Witt 282 DE 1987 0 0 0 1 2 North Alabama 1986 12 Brian McClure 313 QB 1987 0 0 0 1 1 20 38 181 0 3 2 4 0 Bowling Green 1986 12 Derek Christian 331 LB 0 0 0 West Virginia Hits 1 Misses 13 = 7% OUCH The big selecting is Wolford who became of the NFL's best LT. I am not going to give Harmon a miss. He was dynamic RB when it came to catching the ball but I don't this his production warranted #16. Butch Rolle and Mike Pike are known among Bills fans but neither was anything more than a marginal contributor. Rolle was a 3rd string TE that had a fun streak of catching TE's and Pike was a great special teams guy but IMO neither were starters and don't warrant a "hit." 7 1 Shane Conlan 8 LB 1995 0 3 8 59 120 5 7.0 Penn St. 1987 2 Nate Odomes 29 DB 1996 0 2 7 53 115 26 3.0 Wisconsin 1987 2 Roland Mitchell 33 DB 1994 0 0 1 15 89 6 1.0 Texas Tech 1987 3 David Brandon 60 LB 1997 0 0 1 20 123 4 7.0 Memphis 1987 3 Jamie Mueller 78 RB 1990 0 0 2 8 57 238 901 4 28 169 1 Benedictine 1987 4 Leon Seals 109 DE 1992 0 0 2 22 82 1 14.5 Jackson St. 1987 7 Kerry Porter 171 RB 1990 0 0 0 0 35 16 57 0 4 44 0 Washington St. 1987 8 Bruce Mesner 209 NT 1987 0 0 0 1 11 Maryland 1987 9 Keith McKeller 227 TE 1993 0 0 4 16 80 124 1464 11 Jacksonville St. 1987 11 Howard Ballard 283 T 1998 0 2 10 67 170 Alabama A&M 1987 12 Joe McGrail 311 NT 1987 0 0 0 0 2 Delaware 5 Hits/6 Misses = 45% Overall a good draft. I am giving Conlan a "hit" as he developed in a Pro Bowl player for 3 seasons. Mueller is probably the closest to a hit from the group, but I really don't feel he was more than a blocking FB and that his production doesn't match his status. Great picks with Seals, McKeller and Ballard toward the end. 988 2 Thurman Thomas HOF 40 RB 2000 2 5 10 112 182 0 1 0 0 0 2877 12074 65 472 4458 23 Oklahoma St. 1988 3 Bernard Ford 65 WR 1990 0 0 0 1 24 17 176 2 Central Florida 1988 5 Ezekial Gadson 123 DB 0 0 0 Pittsburgh 1988 5 Kirk Roach 135 K 0 0 0 West. Carolina 1988 6 Dan Murray 150 LB 1990 0 0 0 0 4 East Stroudsburg 1988 7 Tim Borcky 177 T 0 0 0 Memphis 1988 7 Bo Wright 184 RB 0 0 0 Alabama 1988 8 John Hagy 204 DB 1990 0 0 1 6 28 2 Texas 1988 8 Jeff Wright 213 NT 1994 0 0 5 30 98 1 31.5 Central Missouri St. 1988 9 Carlton Bailey 235 LB 1997 0 0 6 44 142 1 10.0 North Carolina 1988 10 Martin Mayhew 262 DB 1996 0 0 7 41 118 21 1.0 Florida St. 1988 11 Pete Curkendall 289 DT 0 0 0 Penn St. 1988 12 John Driscoll 309 T 0 0 0 New Hampshire 1988 12 Tom Erlandson 316 LB 1988 0 0 0 0 4 3 Hits/11 Misses = 21% OK Thurman goes without saying. TREMENDOUS pick. The rest? Eh not so much. Bailey was a great late round pick who turned into a capable starter. As I've stated before Wright IMO was the weak link on the defense and if Ted Washington falls to the Bills, they might have won a Super Bowl. Still Wright was great value in Round 8. Martin Mayhew did turn out to be a decent starter in the NFL but not for the Bills 89 3 Don Beebe 82 WR 1997 0 0 4 33 116 4 28 0 219 3416 23 Chadron St. 1989 4 John Kolesar 109 WR 0 0 0 Michigan 1989 5 Michael Andrews 137 DB 0 0 0 Alcorn St. 1989 6 Sean Doctor 164 RB 0 0 0 Marshall 1989 7 Brian Jordan 173 DB 1991 0 0 2 13 36 5 4.0 Richmond 1989 7 Chris Hale 193 DB 1992 0 0 0 4 43 1 USC 1989 9 Pat Rabold 249 DT 0 0 0 Wyoming 1989 10 Carlo Cheattom 276 DB 0 0 0 Auburn 1989 11 Richard Harvey 305 LB 2000 0 0 5 33 143 2 13.0 Tulane 1989 12 Derrell Marshall 332 T 0 0 0 USC 1 Hit/9 Misses = 10% WOW what a bad draft. Yes I know they didn't have a 1st or 2nd rounder and Beebe in the 3rd was a great pick. The rest of this draft was straight garbage. No late round magic this year. 990 1 James Williams 16 DB 1996 0 0 2 17 70 11 Fresno St. 1990 2 Carwell Gardner 42 FB 1997 0 0 0 7 101 211 749 10 36 281 1 Louisville 1990 3 Glenn Parker 69 G 2001 0 0 9 57 174 Arizona 1990 4 Eddie Fuller 100 RB 1993 0 0 0 0 20 6 39 0 2 17 0 LSU 1990 6 John Nies 154 P 1990 0 0 0 0 4 Arizona 1990 7 Brent Griffith 166 G 0 0 0 Minnesota-Duluth 1990 7 Brent Collins 170 LB 0 0 0 Carson-Newman 1990 7 Fred DeRiggi 181 NT 1990 0 0 0 0 2 Syracuse 1990 8 Marvcus Patton 208 LB 2002 0 0 9 72 208 17 27.5 UCLA 1990 9 Clarkston Hines 238 WR 0 0 0 Duke 1990 10 Mike Lodish 265 NT 2000 0 0 1 22 166 8.5 UCLA 1990 11 Al Edwards 292 WR 1992 0 0 0 4 37 2 25 0 26 264 1 NW State (LA) 4 Hits/8 Misses = 33% Again not a stellar draft. JD Williams was a huge whiff by Polian. He did have some late round success with Patton and I am giving Lodish and Edwards marginal "Hits" given their contributions despite low draft status. 91 1 Henry Jones 26 DB 2002 1 1 8 58 158 18 5.0 Illinois 1991 2 Phil Hansen 54 DE 2001 0 0 10 62 156 1 61.5 North Dakota St. 1991 3 Darryl Wren 82 DB 1994 0 0 0 4 20 3 Pittsburg St. 1991 5 Shawn Wilbourn 138 DB 0 0 0 Long Beach St. 1991 6 Millard Hamilton 166 WR 0 0 0 1991 7 Amir Rasul 194 RB 0 0 0 Florida A&M 1991 8 Brad Lamb 222 WR 1993 0 0 0 2 8 7 139 0 Anderson (IN) 1991 9 Mark Maddox 249 LB 2000 0 0 3 24 111 2 2.5 Northern Michigan 1991 10 Tony De Lorenzo 277 G 0 0 0 New Mexico St. 1991 11 Dean Kirkland 305 G 0 0 0 Washington 1991 12 Stephen Clark 333 TE 0 0 0 Texas 3 hits/8 misses = 27% Solid drafting at the top - Jones and Hansen were long term starters and huge contributors. Maddox eventually played well enough to break the starting lineup for a few seasons. Excellent return for a 9th round pick TOTAL SCORE = 17/72 = 24% One thing I can say about Polian with the exception of 1986 he did hit quite a bit on his 1st and 2nd round picks - and that's what you need to you to be successful. Sure sometimes he missed, but for the most part he found good players toward the top of the draft. He also avoided drafting any high round busts on his resume. However, he also had many swings in the draft and missed quite a bit of picks which really surprised me. Also Polian was involved in many stellar personnel moves outside of the draft which really helped the football team as well. But oddly enough - the greatest GM in Bills in history has a lower success rate than Russ Brandon: Current standings: 1. Russ Brandon = 27% 2. Marv Levy = 25% 3. Bill Polian = 23% Edited March 6, 2018 by BuffaloRush
oldmanfan Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 Mark Pike and Carwell Garner were certainly not misses. 1 1
BuffaloRush Posted March 6, 2018 Author Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, oldmanfan said: Mark Pike and Carwell Garner were certainly not misses. Well both are definitely debatable. IMO I don't think that the Bills got a solid ROI on Gardner as a second round pick. Perhaps it was question to draft a FB in Round 2 to begin with. My thinking is that the team expected Gardiner to play a bigger role that he did. While he was a competent starter at FB, I'm not sure if he lived up to draft status. Pike make some nice contributions as a Special Teams player and certainly was a good role player. It's close but I don't feel he did enough to warrant a "hit" but again, I can see why you'd think that way. Regardless, the total score for Polian doesn't change much even with these two.
oldmanfan Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 I think your breakdown was very interesting. Glad you did it. His big hits were really big though. Four hall of famers.
BuffaloRush Posted March 6, 2018 Author Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said: Marv Levy wasn’t 31%. You are right Jay. I decided to change Whitner to a miss which brings his % down to 25% 16 picks - 4 hits = 25% 1 minute ago, oldmanfan said: I think your breakdown was very interesting. Glad you did it. His big hits were really big though. Four hall of famers. Well really only 1 HOF'er but many solid picks. Despite this, I'm surprised how many chances he at and how many times he missed
oldmanfan Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 Well, Jim and Andre and Thurman and Bruce. He was at least involved, right?
Jay_Fixit Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: You are right Jay. I decided to change Whitner to a miss which brings his % down to 25% 16 picks - 4 hits = 25% Well really only 1 HOF'er but many solid picks. Despite this, I'm surprised how many chances he at and how many times he missed Brad Butler wasn’t a hit either.
baskingridgebillsfan Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 the real point is no gm kills it when It comes to the draft. Everyone matches their gm against the mythical perfect gm
oldmanfan Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 This data really is eye opening. I wonder how much influence he had on drafts before officially taking over as GM.
Mango Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 Re: Rolle and Pike. This is before my football watching time, however I was actually alive, but just a thought. How can you list "marginal contributors" for two 7th round picks as misses? They were 7th round picks!!!! What type of contribution would warrant a hit for a 7th rounder? You should define what you consider an absolute hit v. absolute miss. Also these were 12 round drafts, I would either drop rounds 8-12, change expectations based on draft spot, or include UDFA in the later era's just to keep things streamlined. Apples to apples. In 2018, if a 7th rounder makes the roster 2 years in a row, you basically killed the pick. 1
stony Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: Well, Jim and Andre and Thurman and Bruce. He was at least involved, right? He only drafted Thurman.
BuffaloRush Posted March 6, 2018 Author Posted March 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: Well, Jim and Andre and Thurman and Bruce. He was at least involved, right? He did not draft Jim Kelly and technically Terry Bledsoe was GM when Bruce was drafted. He certainly did draft Thurman. Probably his best pick ever
stony Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said: Didn't he have some say on Andre and Bruce? Bruce kinda drafts himself. No?
oldmanfan Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, BuffaloRush said: He did not draft Jim Kelly and technically Terry Bledsoe was GM when Bruce was drafted. He certainly did draft Thurman. Probably his best pick ever Good thing you and stony corrected me. Memory fails the old man at times. 1 minute ago, stony said: Bruce kinda drafts himself. No? Yeah but someone still has to hand in the card
BuffaloRush Posted March 6, 2018 Author Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Mango said: Re: Rolle and Pike. This is before my football watching time, however I was actually alive, but just a thought. How can you list "marginal contributors" for two 7th round picks as misses? They were 7th round picks!!!! What type of contribution would warrant a hit for a 7th rounder? You should define what you consider an absolute hit v. absolute miss. Also these were 12 round drafts, I would either drop rounds 8-12, change expectations based on draft spot, or include UDFA in the later era's just to keep things streamlined. Apples to apples. In 2018, if a 7th rounder makes the roster 2 years in a row, you basically killed the pick. I do see your point. As I stated given Pike's 7th round status, it's very close. Rolle was really a 3rd string Tight End that gained notoriety for being an end zone target. But he was more or less a novelty. Even if I do consider them to be "hits" it doesn't change Polian's score much
stony Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: Good thing you and stony corrected me. Memory fails the old man at times. Yeah but someone still has to hand in the card Haha. Fair enough. For the record, I think he was a good GM. He just happened to inherit a lot of the faces we all associate with the glory years.
Mango Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: I do see your point. As I stated given Pike's 7th round status, it's very close. Rolle was really a 3rd string Tight End that gained notoriety for being an end zone target. But he was more or less a novelty. Even if I do consider them to be "hits" it doesn't change Polian's score much Total aside. Butch Rolle is a total animal at 53 years old.
BuffaloRush Posted March 6, 2018 Author Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, stony said: Haha. Fair enough. For the record, I think he was a good GM. He just happened to inherit a lot of the faces we all associate with the glory years. Right I can agree with you. He was also involved in many under the radar personnel moves that really helped the team. He also assembled a very good team to help him including his successor John Butler. He just missed quite a bit in the draft and that I didn't expect to see
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