I doubt Beane risks both 1st round picks

[ColoradoBills]

2 minutes ago, elltrain22 said:

 

I think they do. They know the landscape just like you and I do. I believe that Rosen is their target, but I also think they like Allen/Darnold/Mayfield, in that order. I think it all depends on how the draft shakes out. 

 

As it looks now, there is an average chance Cleveland takes Barkely 1st, and then the Giants pass on QB, which then opens up so many trade down possiblities for us

 

I'm fairly confident they know 10 times more about the QB situation than anyone on this site.

They are going to do their best to get someone and I hope things fall the right way.

 

I am starting to think that Beane and McDermott may be the best GM/HC we have had since Polian/Levy.

[NoSaint]

2 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

http://13wham.com/sports/buffalo-bills/bills-are-overdue-to-invest-in-franchise-qb

 

No team in the NFL has invested less in the quarterback position over the last 18 years than the Buffalo Bills. In 2013 they selected Erik Rodriguez (EJ) Manuel in the first round. That is the only time they have used either a first or second round pick in the draft on a quarterback during those nearly two decades. How rare is that? In that same time frame only 7 other NFL teams have also not taken a quarterback in the first two rounds. But it doesn’t take a genius to figure out why those teams have stayed away from a pick. The Giants (Eli) Ravens (Flacco) Chargers (Rivers) Saints (Brees) have the long time starters. The outliers? The Cowboys who hit a home run with free agent Tony Romo and may have one with 4th rounder Dak Prescott and the Seahawks who broke all the rules by finding Russell Wilson in the 3rd. I think it is well past time for the Bills to stop bargain shopping and go in on a quarterback to lead this franchise.

 

In that 20 years we selected EJ

 

but also JP, and traded for drew.... and that’s all in the heels of trading for rob Johnson. 

 

Weve spent draft resources. Just poorly.

[elltrain22]

5 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I'm fairly confident they know 10 times more about the QB situation than anyone on this site.

They are going to do their best to get someone and I hope things fall the right way.

 

I am starting to think that Beane and McDermott may be the best GM/HC we have had since Polian/Levy.

 

I wasn't saying we, the fans, know as much as McBeane do. What I am saying here is that, the fans, and management, know what QB's are tier 1, 2, 3,  etc. 

[Reed83HOF]

6 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

In that 20 years we selected EJ

 

but also JP, and traded for drew.... and that’s all in the heels of trading for rob Johnson. 

 

Weve spent draft resources. Just poorly.

While the author missed on a few things - this point still remains

[ColoradoBills]

2 minutes ago, elltrain22 said:

 

I wasn't saying we, the fans, know as much as McBeane do. What I am saying here is that, the fans, and management, know what QB's are tier 1, 2, 3,  etc. 

 

No problem, and welcome to TSW!

The next 6 weeks or so are going to be so fun and it will be exciting to see how things all play out.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

47 minutes ago, gjv001 said:

I would be very surprised to see Beane trade both 1st round picks for a QB. Would not be surprised to see him move for a QB, they covet, who falls to a point that only one 1st round pick and some other mid-level draft compensation is required.

 

We got an extra 1st last year by trading down with a team that wanted a QB.

I have no idea why people think we shouldn't add that pick back to this year's 1st, to draft a QB.

 

It's not a "risk" anymore than drafting any 1st round player with a pick.  It's why we got it.

 

Now that said, I think we're going to have to move up higher than #8-#10 or so to draft Rosen, Darnold, or possibly Mayfield, which gets into handing over picks from next year and 2nd round picks this year.  I don't think 2 late 1st round picks and a 2nd this year, and a 2nd next year or something like that, will do it.

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

While the author missed on a few things - this point still remains

I’m not sure it remains. The Bills used a 2nd on Collins in ‘95, 3 years later traded a 1st and a 4th for Johnson, traded a 1st for Bledsoe 3 years later, drafted Losman in the 1st 3 years later and then EJ. They will be using AT LEAST a 1st this year as well. They haven’t spent wisely but they haven’t ignored it either.

[RochesterRob]

25 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Im not sure what 300 yard games have to do with anything, but it is true that the Bills have never simply stayed put and used their first overall selection in round one to draft a QB. Johnson had exactly one start to his credit ( vs BAL) with the Jaguars when the Bills surrendered a first round pick for him. The Bills also passed on a chance to select Johnson with one of their own mid round picks in the 95 draft. Bledsoe was probably the closest thing the team has had to a real NFL QB since the Kelly era, but he had nine seasons on him in an era where QBs got crushed. He was never mobile to begin with, and the changes in the defensive game rendered Bledsoe obsolete. Regardless, it's hard to argue that the Bills franchise has placed a premium on finding Jim Kelly's replacement the last twenty years. 

  300 yard games have been a benchmark to judge QB's just as 100 yard games have been a benchmark for RB's.  One could argue that now those standards are obsolete but during the time period being discussed I think that they are good measures.  Most of what you have stated is in hindsight.  NFL offices do not have that luxury in evaluating players when they make trades or draft selections.  OK, so Johnson may have had one regular season start but he was still very productive and NFL FO's across the league got to evaluate him by NFL standards for that game.  Again, I would point out that if some of the other Bills' moves had panned out such as with Mike Williams we might have seen a different outcome with Bledsoe.  What is the standard for placing a premium?  Obviously using first round picks in your mind and to be fair most other fans' minds.  But I think the juggling act to find quality players in quantity in a FO setting is anything but that linear in function.

Edited March 4, 2018 by RochesterRob

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

In that 20 years we selected EJ

but also JP, and traded for drew.... and that’s all in the heels of trading for rob Johnson. 

Weve spent draft resources. Just poorly.

 

No Saint,

 

I did a comparison at one point between several top teams investment in QB.  I think it's fair to say that the Bills have made lower investment at the QB position than several other teams who were seeking a franchise guy (and found one) or who already had one.

 

1 minute ago, RochesterRob said:

  300 yard games have been a benchmark to judge QB's just as 100 yard games have been a benchmark for RB's. 

 

300 yd games are a poor benchmark to judge QBs (if they ever have been used inside the football profession) because if passing yardage per game has a correlation to winning, it is a negative correlation (and it's weak).  Now you might be able to find a positive correlation in there somewhere - such as by restricting the data set to games where the team was behind by 2 scores at the half, or something.  But I distrust that kind of massage.

Edited March 4, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[baskingridgebillsfan]

I am wondering if someone starts to drift down and he can move up with one of this years and a 1 next year he would pull the trigger.  He is going to have a ton of cap space next year so not having a mid first round pick wouldn't be devastating. 

[Boatdrinks]

5 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  300 yard games have been a benchmark to judge QB's just as 100 yard games have been a benchmark for RB's.  One could argue that now those standards are obsolete but during the time period being discussed I think that they are good measures.  Most of what you have stated is in hindsight.  NFL offices do not have that luxury in evaluating players when they make trades or draft selections.  OK, so Johnson may have had one regular season start but he was still very productive and NFL FO's across the league got to evaluate him by NFL standards for that game.  Again, I would point out that if some of the other Bills' moves had panned out such as with Mike Williams we might have seen a different outcome with Bledsoe.  What is the standard for placing a premium?  Obviously using first round picks and your mind and to be fair most other fans' minds.  But I think the juggling act to find quality players in quantity in a FO setting is anything but that linear in function.

Of course it is in hindsight. But NFL executives are paid big $$ to have foresight. They need to be better than us armchair guys at this. The Bills GMs mostly haven't been. That's the overall point here. They've haphazardly squandered the draft capital they did have, with no great vision or foresight. 

Edited March 4, 2018 by Boatdrinks

[RochesterRob]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

No Saint,

 

I did a comparison at one point between several top teams investment in QB.  I think it's fair to say that the Bills have made lower investment at the QB position than several other teams who were seeking a franchise guy (and found one) or who already had one.

 

300 yd games are a poor benchmark to judge QBs (if they ever have been used inside the football profession) because if passing yardage per game has a correlation to winning, it is a negative correlation.

  Don't know if NFL player personnel people use them but post game shows and Monday morning NFL columnists used them quite a bit back then.  Whether former insiders such as Bobby Beathard (Redskins, Chargers) who transitioned to the sports media tipped them off or just let them guess is anybody's guess.

[NoSaint]

8 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m not sure it remains. The Bills used a 2nd on Collins in ‘95, 3 years later traded a 1st and a 4th for Johnson, traded a 1st for Bledsoe 3 years later, drafted Losman in the 1st 3 years later and then EJ. They will be using AT LEAST a 1st this year as well. They haven’t spent wisely but they haven’t ignored it either.

 

It might be a less in the mid rounds as we haven’t gotten those guys in rounds 2-4 often but having spent 4 1st rounders (soon to possibly be 6) in 20 years isn’t wildly out of line with anyone chasing a qb.

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

No Saint,

 

I did a comparison at one point between several top teams investment in QB.  I think it's fair to say that the Bills have made lower investment at the QB position than several other teams who were seeking a franchise guy (and found one) or who already had one.

 

 

300 yd games are a poor benchmark to judge QBs (if they ever have been used inside the football profession) because if passing yardage per game has a correlation to winning, it is a negative correlation (and it's weak).  Now you might be able to find a positive correlation in there somewhere - such as by restricting the data set to games where the team was behind by 2 scores at the half, or something.  But I distrust that kind of massage.

 

I don’t think anyone says “wow this guy had 7 and that guy only had 5– he’s obviously much worse”

 

But “this guy plays from behind and can’t strap the team on his back to be competitive when needed” can surely be a commentary when a guy has essentially none and others do it with regularity 

[RochesterRob]

6 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Of course it is in hindsight. But NFL executives are paid big $$ to have foresight. They need to be better than us armchair guys at this. The Bills GMs mostly haven't been. That's the overall point here. They've haphazardly squandered the draft capital they did have, with no great vision or foresight. 

  In my mind scouting players is a business of prediction just like being a weather forecaster or commodity broker.  There is still a random element to it after all the data has been looked at.  Also, in my mind predicting a winner in terms of a NFL prospect is like predicting how many winners are left on the next 100 tickets off a larger spool of tickets.  I could buy after others buy the next 20 or 30 because the last winners I saw were 20 or 30 picks apart.  I could also using that strategy buy nothing but duds for the next ten until I give up.  There is only so much science or data that is meaningful in predicting the future price of oil or corn or the weather two weeks from today but in the end there is the chance for random occurrences to muck it up.  The same is true for finding NFL players.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, baskingridgebillsfan said:

I am wondering if someone starts to drift down and he can move up with one of this years and a 1 next year he would pull the trigger.  He is going to have a ton of cap space next year so not having a mid first round pick wouldn't be devastating. 

 

I would hope so.  The question is who will he consider trading up and pulling the trigger for?  IMO the QB who look like possible immediate or half-year starters are Rosen and Mayfield, possibly Darnold.  Jackson and Rudolph are probably 1 yr projects.  Allen is IMO "boom or bust"

15 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

But “this guy plays from behind and can’t strap the team on his back to be competitive when needed” can surely be a commentary when a guy has essentially none and others do it with regularity 

 

Absolutely, but I'm not sure 300 yd games are the metric of that.

[dlonce]

3 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

....my unsubstantiated hunch is that McBeane covets BOTH 1sts, does NOT move up into "God's Country" for one of the top 4 "apparent QB God's".....none come with a warranty or money back guarantee anyhow.....hell, he may even go OL/DL or DL/OL with the 1sts, and look to the Rudolph/Falk/Lauletta/White gang for his "franchise QB" and who even knows what HIS definition is?.......HIS definition along with McD/Daboll's is the ONLY one that will matter come Draft Day.......be prepared and stay tuned............

You’re going to be surprised then.

None of the picks come with a warranty.

 

Beanes going to try his best to get up into the top 5. He may need to get to 3 to have the chance at one of those QBs.

Theres a reason he took a one from KC for this year and added more picks after round one.

 

I believe Beane thought what he had would be enough,and I believe he thought we’d be drafting higher than we are with our pick.

Hes going to need to include next years first at the very least because of the number of teams looking to trade up.

I pray he gets it done. We need to attempt to secure the most important spot on the team,finally, and this is the year to do it.

 

Its going to be the richest bidding war ever,in my opinion. I’d love to be the Giants and Indy right now.

 

Edited March 4, 2018 by dlonce

[baskingridgebillsfan]

If they choose to stay put and spend the picks to get the pieces the coach needs to makes his defense a top 5 unit that works in the short term.  They proved they can win 9 games playing without a qb this year.   

[RochesterRob]

2 minutes ago, baskingridgebillsfan said:

If they choose to stay put and spend the picks to get the pieces the coach needs to makes his defense a top 5 unit that works in the short term.  They proved they can win 9 games playing without a qb this year.   

  Honestly, if they use the picks for players versus trade ammo and don't reach on a QB but takes one where a given slot warrants a given player then we should do that or slightly better such as the outcome was this past season.  Then if need be with few questions on our roster and a much weaker draft forecast for 2019 then mortgage the farm for the chosen one.

[BillsVet]

1 hour ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

No quarterback in this draft, like a Carson Wentz, to “mortgage the farm” to move up for.  I’d stay put and stockpile talent with our draft assets unless a guy like Allen or Mayfield slide into the teens.  I’d be happy with giving up 21 or 22, a late round pick, and maybe a pick in 2019 to move up 7-9 spots.  

 

I’d also be happy with Lamar Jackson at 21.

 

I get that people want a sure thing QB if they trade up, but no such player exists most years. When you risk nothing, it's unlikely you'll gain much. 

 

To use a baseball analogy, you never get hits if you don't take the bat off your shoulder. Buffalo has entered the draft for far too long looking to walk or get bloop hits. That, to  me is what taking defensive players or the 4th/5th QB off the board. It is a loser mentality and one that is less likely to get this team from being a perennial 8-9 win team that tries to back into the playoffs into a 11-12 win team. 

 

 

[3rdand12]

2 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I guess the hardest part of this whole process is the unknown. Do we trade up and go for it and pray the guy pans out or do we stay at 21 22 and hope we get 2 solid picks?  It's the great unknown. There's no crystal balls here. No sports almanac from Back to the Future.  Whatever happens and whatever decision they make, hopefully the Buffalo Gods shine on us this April. We've taken our lumps for 17 years. We need some good karma.....

good luck with that my friend !