Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 2, 2018 Posted March 2, 2018 1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said: He’s either playing day 1 or he will bust out. Baker is 100% ready. Go watch his performance against OSU and UGA. Those defenses are full of NFL players and coaches. He killed them. There isn’t much learning or adapting to him. He’s a plug and play guy. It may not work but he isn’t some guy that’s going to improve a lot at the next level. He and Watson are similar in that sense. They played a lot of football and had a lot of success against the best. Those guys don’t grow a ton. They come in and play. Kirby, I love you Man, but what can I say? You are on powerful mind-altering drugs here. Don't bogart that stuff. OSU may have 5-15 players a year drafted - about half of whom either won't make it in the NFL or will see time only as role players/backups, like Cardale Jones and Adolphus Washington. Those that do make it, will take their level of study and preparation to a new level and sometimes won't. Every single player who makes it in the NFL says that the game is faster, harder, and fiercer. Routinely, we see pro players make big gains between their rookie and 2nd years when they get an off-season with an NFL S&C program and they no longer have to pretend to go to school. I believe it was Buffalo716 that said even the Browns would kick 'Bama's butt and it wouldn't be close. Is OSU a talented team, Yes. Do they play on an NFL level, No. There is no dichotomy between "playing day 1" or "bust"; there is no reason to think that Mayfield, like any rookie player, won't be able to improve in his ability to play the game at a faster speed, read NFL Ds, etc.
Kirby Jackson Posted March 2, 2018 Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said: Kirby, I love you Man, but what can I say? You are on powerful mind-altering drugs here. Don't bogart that stuff. OSU may have 5-15 players a year drafted - about half of whom either won't make it in the NFL or will see time only as role players/backups, like Cardale Jones and Adolphus Washington. Those that do make it, will take their level of study and preparation to a new level and sometimes won't. Every single player who makes it in the NFL says that the game is faster, harder, and fiercer. Routinely, we see pro players make big gains between their rookie and 2nd years when they get an off-season with an NFL S&C program and they no longer have to pretend to go to school. I believe it was Buffalo716 that said even the Browns would kick 'Bama's butt and it wouldn't be close. Is OSU a talented team, Yes. Do they play on an NFL level, No. There is no dichotomy between "playing day 1" or "bust"; there is no reason to think that Mayfield, like any rookie player, won't be able to improve in his ability to play the game at a faster speed, read NFL Ds, etc. You judge college players against their best competition. The OSU defense this year had Hubbard, Lewis, Baker, Ward, Holmes, Worley, Bosa, Webb, etc... You admittedly don’t follow college football but that is as talented a defense as a college player will face. They probably have 9-10 guys on the 2 deep that will be drafted in the 1st 2 days. Check out what Barkley did (especially after the 1st quarter). It is a better litmus test than any others (along with Alabama and Clemson defenses). I dont mean to be dismissive (and I know I’m coming across as such). There isn’t ANYONE that I’ve read or heard that thinks Baker needs time to adjust. He is ABSOLUTELY ready to play now. If he isn’t good, he isn’t good but it isn’t going to be because he needed more time. He, along with Rosen, are miles ahead of these other guys in terms of “readiness to play.” It isn’t even up for debate.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 2, 2018 Posted March 2, 2018 25 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: You judge college players against their best competition. The OSU defense this year had Hubbard, Lewis, Baker, Ward, Holmes, Worley, Bosa, Webb, etc... You admittedly don’t follow college football but that is as talented a defense as a college player will face. They probably have 9-10 guys on the 2 deep that will be drafted in the 1st 2 days. Check out what Barkley did (especially after the 1st quarter). It is a better litmus test than any others (along with Alabama and Clemson defenses). I dont mean to be dismissive (and I know I’m coming across as such). There isn’t ANYONE that I’ve read or heard that thinks Baker needs time to adjust. He is ABSOLUTELY ready to play now. If he isn’t good, he isn’t good but it isn’t going to be because he needed more time. He, along with Rosen, are miles ahead of these other guys in terms of “readiness to play.” It isn’t even up for debate. Answer one question, Kirby, Yes or No. How would the OSU defense of last year fare against a low-level NFL team? Let's say the Jets. Would the Jets beat them? Yes or no? Because you're switching the question. The question isn't whether OSU is the best competition Mayfield, or any college QB faced. Mayve they are, I dunno. The question is whether they're equivalent to an NFL defense. And if the answer is "no", then clearly it's reasonable to expect a college QB, ANY college QB, to need time to adjust. And I don't know anyone, ANYONE, whose football acumen I trust, who thinks a college team, any college team, is equivalent to an NFL team. Peyton F*cking Manning, fergosh sakes, threw 28 INT and 26 TD his rookie season, and completed less than 57% of his passes. Do some of today's rookie QB do better, with the help of more "college like" offenses, sure, but they still have struggles and make mistakes. To claim a college QB, any college QB, won't need to adjust to the NFL is to strain credulity, and Mayfield played in a spread offense and is relatively short, for goodness sake. I agree that Rosen and Mayfield are the most "ready to play" QB in the class, but even Rosen IMO is going to have some teething pains if he's thrown in Day 1. Doesn't mean he'll be a bust, either. I like Mayfield. I'd love for us to draft him. Maybe he'll go through preseason and look ready, and maybe he'll look like he needs some time, doesn't mean he'll be a "bust" like your "ready or Bust" false dichotomy suggests. Do I really need to go through college scouting reports on Mayfield and cut-n-paste all the caveats? "will need development for working under center" " will need to transition from college to pro-style offense" "inconsistent field vision" "can get happy feet in the pocket" "can have issues reading the field" "(Walter Football) Benefited from spread scheme that created huge passing windows to throw to. Will see increased importance on post-snap reads. Needs to improve full-field scanning. Can be thrown off rhythm by delayed blitz packages and disguised coverages." (NFL.com, Lance Zierlein) and there's more like that. Not that I think I'm some pundit, but I could see the field vision and reading issues and happy feet myself at times in the film I watched. Yes, you're coming off as dismissive, nothing wrong with that when there's something readily dismissable, but that's really not what's here. 1
Bill Murray Posted March 2, 2018 Posted March 2, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:21 PM, SouthNYfan said: Dude. Gunner. You're trying to have a logical, unbiased discussion about Tyrod with a guy named "t-bomb" who has Tyrod as his avatar. That's like trying to have a logical, unbiased discussion about "cheating in professional sports" with Brady and belichick. Except Bradford isn't perfect if you want your got to sit for a year, since there's a good chance his knee won't make it 4 games. I mean unless you plan on throwing Peterman out there if that happens while still sitting the rookie?? If that's the case, why not let Nate roll with it from day one and save yourself the $$ Bc Nate can’t take us to the playoffs and TT can.
GunnerBill Posted March 2, 2018 Posted March 2, 2018 9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: Okay... so now it's very clear that you are completely reliant in your plan on trading up in the draft because that's the only way we acquire Rosen/Mayfield/Darnold. And that's fine. I'd love that, actually. And at that point, I 100% agree that the odds of Taylor being gone increase exponentially and would be perfectly happy, at that point, acquiring a QB in the McCown/Fitz tier. Where I think we differ is in the fact that you seem to believe that trade up is inevitable or easy or the only thing McBeane are really considering doing. I'd love it if we traded up for one of those 3 guys. We might do it. But lately I'm thinking it's less and less likely with the age of this team and how many holes we're going to need to fill over the next couple years. This seems to be where you and I differ from GunnerBill after just reading one of his posts. He seems to think there's a clear and obvious plan to trade up for Darnold/Rosen/Mayfield. I won't speak for you, but I know I'll be excited if that happens, I just don't think it will. McDermott and Beane really strike me as pragmatists and I think Beane's statements on valuing draft picks highly isn't just a smokescreen. I don't think he makes that trade unless he thinks the value is at least fair if not better for us than the other team. And I just think that'll be difficult to do. Less than 2 weeks to the new league year when all the really insanity commences!!! I am absolutely convinced the Bills are planning to trade into the top 5. Have been since the senior bowl interview with Beane when on 2 different occassions HE brought up trading up unprompted by the media. Since then numerous media outlets have heard the same rumour. At this point I would be stunned if the Bills didn't pick before #21 in the draft. 8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: I stand corrected on you saying it was 5% before. So maybe it only increased 1-4% for you, rather than 5%... still... you're coming around Well let's say 10% is the ceiling if the chance I give Tyrod to still be here. It isn't happening. 5 hours ago, T-Bomb said: Yeah, I'm not sure any team is giving up assets for Tyrod... IMO, the only reason you give him the roster bonus is in case all your other "plans" take a ****, can't have Peterman starting. Tyrod is the disaster scenario starter if all other QB options dry up. I think they see the 6 mill as already spent on this. Why take it from me? Numerous league insiders have reported the Bills think that paying the $6m makes him more tradeable. I wouldn't be surprised if there is already a deal worked out but that team said "we only want to be on the hook for $10m... you need to cover the rest."
Logic Posted March 2, 2018 Posted March 2, 2018 Haven't read the entire thread, but just wanted to say: If one personnel decision honestly makes you give up the Buffalo Bills, then you are a weak-ass B word, and the team will be better off without your ****ty, conditional fandom. Thank you. 1 2
GunnerBill Posted March 2, 2018 Posted March 2, 2018 17 hours ago, mjt328 said: Well... I guess it's not totally impossible to get strong QB production on a very cheap contract. Just highly unlikely. In most of the cases you mentioned (Keenum, Foles, McCown), you have bottom-level career backups who were signed to hold clipboards and somehow got thrust into action and managed the best seasons of their lives in 2017. Fitzpatrick and Hoyer did not outperform Taylor last year, so I'm not even sure why you brought them up. If you look at the top Free Agent guys available (outside of Kirk Cousins, of course), you have Sam Bradford, Teddy Bridgewater and AJ McCarron. None of these guys will be playing for anything less than $10 million per year, and most are expecting these guys to fall right in the same range of Taylor's current contract. If you are trying to get one of these guys as a "bridge" - then you might as well just keep Taylor on the roster and save your money. If you are looking to land a crazy bargain (like your examples above), then the Bills will need to replace Taylor with someone like Tom Savage, Matt Moore, Geno Smith, Derek Anderson, Blaine Gabbert, Mark Sanchez or Ryan Mallet. These are the guys who will be signing for $2-6 million per year. In my opinion, all of these players are significant on-field downgrades to Taylor. Not to mention, keeping Taylor and not signing a street FA will keep us in play for compensation picks in 2019. The point is that it isn't just hindsight that allows you to say "oh well maybe it is possible" I was saying this at the time last year. I mentioned three names this time last year and, I include Hoyer because it would be disingenuous of me to only talk about the two that played well and not the one I mentioned that played poorly. I was against bringing Tyrod back on his old contract. When he renegotiated I was then happy to stop talking about Keenum, Foles and Hoyer because on the renegotiated deal I agreed Tyrod was our best option in 2017 - of course in hindsight Keenum played even better than I would have expected. In 2018 as I keep explaining I believe the Bills plan A is to trade into the top 5 of the draft. I am absolutely convinced that is what they want to do and they are doing nothing to dispel that notion. Maybe it is a huge smokescreen and McDermott and Beane have got me good but I don't believe it is. For that reason, to me, you don't need to look for a "top FA" you aren't even looking for a bridge really. You are looking for a high end backup who might be a slight downgrade on Tyrod but who could play the first 4 games if you needed him to and is capable of going 2-2. To me Fitzpatrick and McCown are the absolute perfect fits in that bracket. I think both would be signable in that $3m-$6m range on a 1 year deal. If that is not their plan and they are going to sit and take a Lamar Jackson at #21 or a QB in the 2nd round then there is an argument that keeping Taylor is no worse an option that signing Sam Bradford. I just don't for a second think that is their plan. 1
Kirby Jackson Posted March 2, 2018 Posted March 2, 2018 (edited) 9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Answer one question, Kirby, Yes or No. How would the OSU defense of last year fare against a low-level NFL team? Let's say the Jets. Would the Jets beat them? Yes or no? Because you're switching the question. The question isn't whether OSU is the best competition Mayfield, or any college QB faced. Mayve they are, I dunno. The question is whether they're equivalent to an NFL defense. And if the answer is "no", then clearly it's reasonable to expect a college QB, ANY college QB, to need time to adjust. And I don't know anyone, ANYONE, whose football acumen I trust, who thinks a college team, any college team, is equivalent to an NFL team. Peyton F*cking Manning, fergosh sakes, threw 28 INT and 26 TD his rookie season, and completed less than 57% of his passes. Do some of today's rookie QB do better, with the help of more "college like" offenses, sure, but they still have struggles and make mistakes. To claim a college QB, any college QB, won't need to adjust to the NFL is to strain credulity, and Mayfield played in a spread offense and is relatively short, for goodness sake. I agree that Rosen and Mayfield are the most "ready to play" QB in the class, but even Rosen IMO is going to have some teething pains if he's thrown in Day 1. Doesn't mean he'll be a bust, either. I like Mayfield. I'd love for us to draft him. Maybe he'll go through preseason and look ready, and maybe he'll look like he needs some time, doesn't mean he'll be a "bust" like your "ready or Bust" false dichotomy suggests. Do I really need to go through college scouting reports on Mayfield and cut-n-paste all the caveats? "will need development for working under center" " will need to transition from college to pro-style offense" "inconsistent field vision" "can get happy feet in the pocket" "can have issues reading the field" "(Walter Football) Benefited from spread scheme that created huge passing windows to throw to. Will see increased importance on post-snap reads. Needs to improve full-field scanning. Can be thrown off rhythm by delayed blitz packages and disguised coverages." (NFL.com, Lance Zierlein) and there's more like that. Not that I think I'm some pundit, but I could see the field vision and reading issues and happy feet myself at times in the film I watched. Yes, you're coming off as dismissive, nothing wrong with that when there's something readily dismissable, but that's really not what's here. Of course the Jets would beat them. At the same time I’m not sure there is more talent on the Jets defense. They are just much further along. If you piece together the OSU defense from the last 2 drafts it’s Bosa, Lattimore, Apple, Bell, Conley, McMillan, Hooker, Lee, Washington and Perry. That is 6 1st rounders, 2 2nd rounders a 3rd and a 4th. They have 2 DROY in the last 2 years. Does the Jets defense have 6 1st rounders, 2 DROY’s? This current defense is very much the same they are just not in the NFL yet. That doesn’t mean that they won’t be (and future stars at that). Additionally, who was running routes for Baker? Who was blocking for him? Those were college players too. There is a talent gap between the OSU & UGA defense’s against the OU offense (which is pretty good). Baker closed that gap. The point that you are missing is that what he does against Greg Schiano or Kirby Smart’s defenses, full of NFL players and coaches, matters. That is a better indicator than anything else a scout will look at. It’s way more important than senior bowl practices (where he excelled), the combine, interviews, meetings, etc... What did you do against NFL players and coaches? Baker was phenomenal in those situations. To be clear, of course he will improve some. The point is that his growth curve is the smallest. Baker will be 23 years old already for one. He is already a leader, accurate, success against NFL talent and a ton of experience. Those aren’t the guys that sit on the bench and learn. That is Watson. They come in and play. Guys like Allen and Mahomes take some time. I will happily wager that by Week 4 (if healthy) he is starting in the NFL. You name the stakes. Edited March 2, 2018 by Kirby Jackson
mjt328 Posted March 2, 2018 Posted March 2, 2018 1 hour ago, GunnerBill said: The point is that it isn't just hindsight that allows you to say "oh well maybe it is possible" I was saying this at the time last year. I mentioned three names this time last year and, I include Hoyer because it would be disingenuous of me to only talk about the two that played well and not the one I mentioned that played poorly. I was against bringing Tyrod back on his old contract. When he renegotiated I was then happy to stop talking about Keenum, Foles and Hoyer because on the renegotiated deal I agreed Tyrod was our best option in 2017 - of course in hindsight Keenum played even better than I would have expected. In 2018 as I keep explaining I believe the Bills plan A is to trade into the top 5 of the draft. I am absolutely convinced that is what they want to do and they are doing nothing to dispel that notion. Maybe it is a huge smokescreen and McDermott and Beane have got me good but I don't believe it is. For that reason, to me, you don't need to look for a "top FA" you aren't even looking for a bridge really. You are looking for a high end backup who might be a slight downgrade on Tyrod but who could play the first 4 games if you needed him to and is capable of going 2-2. To me Fitzpatrick and McCown are the absolute perfect fits in that bracket. I think both would be signable in that $3m-$6m range on a 1 year deal. If that is not their plan and they are going to sit and take a Lamar Jackson at #21 or a QB in the 2nd round then there is an argument that keeping Taylor is no worse an option that signing Sam Bradford. I just don't for a second think that is their plan. The problem is, no coaching staff is going to "plan" on starting a veteran for 4 games and then just replace him with a rookie QB. Especially a coach like Sean McDermott. Most coaches want to wait until the rookie is ready. Some will allow them to compete in training camp for the starting job. Some will wait until the season starts falling off the rails. Some will wait until they see something in practice. A coach like McDermott wants to win on Sunday. He isn't going to sacrifice the season just to give a rookie QB some experience. (I realize the irony considering his move last year with Nathan Peterman, but I truly believe he thought Peterman was going to play better than Taylor in Rick Dennison's offense). At the end of the day, I think Beane/McDermott want a veteran who can guide a team to the playoffs while their rookie prepares on the sidelines. And at the end of the day, Taylor still stands as one of the better veteran options on the market. Certainly better than McCown or Fitzpatrick. Arguably better than Keenum, Bradford, Bridgewater or McCarron (for reasons I stated previously). The only thing you gain from cutting Taylor is a little bit of cap space. And depending on which veteran you go with, it could possibly cost more. Keeping him gives you a better chance of landing a compensation pick. Trading him gets you something in return.
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted March 2, 2018 Posted March 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, ScottLaw said: I'd love for them to trade up. I'm hoping they do.... but part of me also thinks McBeane doesn't want to give away all the picks they acquired to get a top pick. IMO, Tyrod will be here unless they do in fact trade up and get a guy. or they could of acquired them for that very reason, to get a top pick!
GunnerBill Posted March 2, 2018 Posted March 2, 2018 24 minutes ago, ScottLaw said: I'd love for them to trade up. I'm hoping they do.... but part of me also thinks McBeane doesn't want to give away all the picks they acquired to get a top pick. IMO, Tyrod will be here unless they do in fact trade up and get a guy. I might be way off base, of course, but I am utterly convinced on the trade up thing.
BadLandsMeanie Posted March 2, 2018 Posted March 2, 2018 Well, a lot of negativity in this thread. But I for one, can't wait to see which not-good-enough quarterback they select to go through the motions of pretending to have a chance next season!! It's exciting!
GunnerBill Posted March 2, 2018 Posted March 2, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, mjt328 said: At the end of the day, I think Beane/McDermott want a veteran who can guide a team to the playoffs while their rookie prepares on the sidelines. And at the end of the day, I don't think they do. I think they want 2018 to be the year they take any lumps with a rookie while they continue to clear up the roster. Not that they are tanking the season or giving up on winning in 2018 just that in 2019 I think they believe they can make a run... so I don't think they want to go into that season with a Redshirt rookie if they can possibly help it. And if Josh Rosen (particularly he) comes in and starts in 2018 I see no chance at all he plays worse than 2017 Tyrod. The further down my QB list you go the higher the chances you get a downgrade but with Rosen I think he would outperform 2017 Taylor as a rookie. You can scorn if you want to... but I said last year I thought Deshaun Watson could do that and despite starting just 6 games he threw for 5 more touchdowns than Tyrod did in 15 games. Edited March 2, 2018 by GunnerBill
SouthNYfan Posted March 2, 2018 Posted March 2, 2018 12 hours ago, Bill Murray said: Bc Nate can’t take us to the playoffs and TT can. Tyrod didn't take us to the playoffs We fell into them
rodneykm Posted March 2, 2018 Posted March 2, 2018 9 hours ago, Logic said: Haven't read the entire thread, but just wanted to say: If one personnel decision honestly makes you give up the Buffalo Bills, then you are a weak-ass B word, and the team will be better off without your ****ty, conditional fandom. Thank you. This is literally the only reply this thread should have EVER gotten. If you are "done" with our team over that then you aren't a fan of this team. I don't even want to hear how long you've been watching or how many games you've been too. YOU AREN'T A REAL FAN.
transplantbillsfan Posted March 2, 2018 Posted March 2, 2018 (edited) 12 hours ago, GunnerBill said: I am absolutely convinced the Bills are planning to trade into the top 5. Have been since the senior bowl interview with Beane when on 2 different occassions HE brought up trading up unprompted by the media. Since then numerous media outlets have heard the same rumour. At this point I would be stunned if the Bills didn't pick before #21 in the draft. Shefter: Bills not engaged in any talks to move up in draft Edited March 2, 2018 by transplantbillsfan
GunnerBill Posted March 2, 2018 Posted March 2, 2018 10 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Shefter: Bills not engaged in any talks to move up in draft I still believe we are trading up 2
transplantbillsfan Posted March 2, 2018 Posted March 2, 2018 (edited) 5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I still believe we are trading up I don't, at least not into the top 5 for one of the 2 or 3 best guys who could and maybe should start week 1. But I'll be excited if you're right and I'm wrong Edited March 2, 2018 by transplantbillsfan
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted March 2, 2018 Posted March 2, 2018 16 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Shefter: Bills not engaged in any talks to move up in draft Well that sucks if true.
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