Phil Savage: Scouting QBs. WGR.com

[PIZ]

http://www.wgr550.com/articles/news/scouting-quarterbacks

[Da webster guy]

So the stupid draft is still two freaking months away and then another two YEARS minimum until we really know who the right qb's are to draft.   My time machine progress is still slow (hint:  it's not 1.21 Jigawatts, I already tried)   you guys will know when I get this thing to work because we'll draft 7 pro bowlers every year.

 

But seriously, there are some years (like the EJ/Geno Smith year) where the entire nation can't produce ONE single decent NFL qb, and then there are years like this which has potential to put three or more future franchise guys into the league.  The odds are probably a few of these dudes flame out completely, a few of them become like Carr or Tannehill decent players, and maybe one or two become stars.

 

I'm scared of too short and not accurate enough--the two things that coaching can't fix.  

And as much as I love Tyrod's magic feet, I want a pocket guy not a scrambler.

 

Can't we just roll the dice on Teddy Bridge's knee and stay put with two studs at 21/22? 

He's years ahead of any rookie between the ears, he can sling it, he's 6'3 with a lifetime qb rating in the high 80's.   65% completion rate.   

 

Get the kid a knee brace and let's get him in camp baby!  We learned from Thurman that knees can heal just fine.

 

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

5 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

So the stupid draft is still two freaking months away and then another two YEARS minimum until we really know who the right qb's are to draft.   My time machine progress is still slow (hint:  it's not 1.21 Jigawatts, I already tried)   you guys will know when I get this thing to work because we'll draft 7 pro bowlers every year.

 

But seriously, there are some years (like the EJ/Geno Smith year) where the entire nation can't produce ONE single decent NFL qb, and then there are years like this which has potential to put three or more future franchise guys into the league.  The odds are probably a few of these dudes flame out completely, a few of them become like Carr or Tannehill decent players, and maybe one or two become stars.

 

I'm scared of too short and not accurate enough--the two things that coaching can't fix.  

And as much as I love Tyrod's magic feet, I want a pocket guy not a scrambler.

 

Can't we just roll the dice on Teddy Bridge's knee and stay put with two studs at 21/22? 

He's years ahead of any rookie between the ears, he can sling it, he's 6'3 with a lifetime qb rating in the high 80's.   65% completion rate.   

 

Get the kid a knee brace and let's get him in camp baby!  We learned from Thurman that knees can heal just fine.

 

I don't know, his injury wasn't a tear, the bone was dislodged from what I read. That may never be good again, then again Bridgewater never really did much when healthy.

[ProcessYaDigg]

2 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

So the stupid draft is still two freaking months away and then another two YEARS minimum until we really know who the right qb's are to draft.   My time machine progress is still slow (hint:  it's not 1.21 Jigawatts, I already tried)   you guys will know when I get this thing to work because we'll draft 7 pro bowlers every year.

 

But seriously, there are some years (like the EJ/Geno Smith year) where the entire nation can't produce ONE single decent NFL qb, and then there are years like this which has potential to put three or more future franchise guys into the league.  The odds are probably a few of these dudes flame out completely, a few of them become like Carr or Tannehill decent players, and maybe one or two become stars.

 

I'm scared of too short and not accurate enough--the two things that coaching can't fix.  

And as much as I love Tyrod's magic feet, I want a pocket guy not a scrambler.

 

Can't we just roll the dice on Teddy Bridge's knee and stay put with two studs at 21/22? 

He's years ahead of any rookie between the ears, he can sling it, he's 6'3 with a lifetime qb rating in the high 80's.   65% completion rate.   

 

Get the kid a knee brace and let's get him in camp baby!  We learned from Thurman that knees can heal just fine.

 

I agree!!!  But at the same time, I don't wanna miss out on a possible homerun with one of these QBs.  I fear that we missed on Mahomes.  I think he's gonna do great things.  I would not be opposed to bringing in Bridgewater on a one-year prove yourself deal and drafting a QB.  I wouldn't mind Jackson, but could potentially be TT 2.0

[Hapless Bills Fan]

35 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

So the stupid draft is still two freaking months away and then another two YEARS minimum until we really know who the right qb's are to draft.   My time machine progress is still slow (hint:  it's not 1.21 Jigawatts, I already tried)   you guys will know when I get this thing to work because we'll draft 7 pro bowlers every year.

 

But seriously, there are some years (like the EJ/Geno Smith year) where the entire nation can't produce ONE single decent NFL qb, and then there are years like this which has potential to put three or more future franchise guys into the league.  The odds are probably a few of these dudes flame out completely, a few of them become like Carr or Tannehill decent players, and maybe one or two become stars.

 

I'm scared of too short and not accurate enough--the two things that coaching can't fix.  

And as much as I love Tyrod's magic feet, I want a pocket guy not a scrambler.

 

Can't we just roll the dice on Teddy Bridge's knee and stay put with two studs at 21/22? 

He's years ahead of any rookie between the ears, he can sling it, he's 6'3 with a lifetime qb rating in the high 80's.   65% completion rate.   

 

Get the kid a knee brace and let's get him in camp baby!  We learned from Thurman that knees can heal just fine.

 

 

I am more scared of Teddy Bridgewater's knee than I am of too short.  No joke. 

 

Thurman's knee injury was that he tore one of his ACL and it was never repaired.    As we all know he went to the HOF playing on one ACL and with a brace.  Bridgewater dislocated his knee (tibiofemoral dislocation), tore his ACL and other ligaments with associated He had a multiple ligament reconstruction.  This is a much more serious, more severe injury then when one ligament tears but the rest of the knee joint remains intact.    There's really not much in the way of comparison.

 

I do not want to stake the Bills 2018 season on whether or not Bridgewater's knee will let him play.

 

You mention Bridgewater's completion rate, which is good.  But I think we as fans have learned that completion percentage isn't everything.  You also want to look at how many yards per attempt is he throwing (less then 7 - meh), how many TDs does he throw relative to the number of INTs he throws (1.3 - not good) and how many yards does he throw each game (gaudy passing yards aren't important, but you want your passer, as we've seen in B'lo, to be able to generate offense by passing (205 ypg - a mighty 4 yds more than TT, whom we reject on the grounds of insufficient passing offense).   He also took 42 sacks per year - sacks sometimes being a sign the QB is indecisive and holds the ball too long (which happens to be about what TT takes, for pretty much those reasons) 

 

So just on a first examination of Bridgewater's statistics, I am unenthused and unprepared to pronounce him years ahead of any rookie.  At the very least, one would have to be carefully asking, why does he throw so many INTs, why doesn't he generate more passing yards, why is he taking so many sacks?

 

 

 

[PIZ]

This guy thinks Bridgewater is not an upgrade over Taylor:

 

http://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/01/21/nfl-free-agency-teddy-bridgewater-buffalo-bills-tyrod-taylor/

[yungmack]

29 minutes ago, PIZ said:

This guy thinks Bridgewater is not an upgrade over Taylor:

 

http://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/01/21/nfl-free-agency-teddy-bridgewater-buffalo-bills-tyrod-taylor/

He's not, he's a downgrade.

[BigBuff423]

Personally, I prefer using a bit more objectivity for evaluating a QB, i.e. the Parcells criteria. It's been said before, but only TWO of the major 6 meet that criteria: 

1. Baker Mayfield

2. Mason Rudolph

 

I'd take Rudolph all day at 21 and trade back 22 if possible, and know I've got an accurate, prototypical size QB, with good pocket awareness, NFL arm (not great, but good enough), experienced, and with no off-field distractions. Also, people who say Mason plays in a one read Offense are using an old narrative and it's lazy. In his first two years as Sophmore and Junior, that's a fair assessment for the most part, but in his Senior year you can see him going through progressions, making reads across the field and making all the throws at all levels of the field. No, he is nowhere near the pure passer Josh Rosen is, and he can't even tie Josh Allen's shoelaces in regards to arm strength, but his arm is NFL capable. As was Peyton Manning and Tom Brady's...their greatest gift was accuracy and football intelligence. IMHO, Rudy has those and with the right team, ala Daboll's Offense with some RPO, he can be a great pocket passer and lead a proficient Offense, just as he did at Ok. State.

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, PIZ said:

This guy thinks Bridgewater is not an upgrade over Taylor:

 

http://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/01/21/nfl-free-agency-teddy-bridgewater-buffalo-bills-tyrod-taylor/

 

 

My tendency is to like Teddy. But I'm not pounding the table at all.

 

But Bridgewater's stats were in his first two years. Let's repeat that, his first two years. He was still extremely early in his life cycle and he was improving quite a bit. Haven't a clue if he'll improve more, but there's a hell of a lot better chance of a guy playing better than he did when he was that young than someone improving on stats made mostly in his fifth, sixth and seventh years. 

 

Wanna put it as, "he hasn't proved more than Tyrod," and I'm all in. That's pretty fair.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, PIZ said:

This guy thinks Bridgewater is not an upgrade over Taylor:

 

http://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/01/21/nfl-free-agency-teddy-bridgewater-buffalo-bills-tyrod-taylor/

 

Bridgewater may be an upgrade over Taylor, but he hasn't (statistically) yet SHOWN enough results that are an upgrade over Taylor to overcome the huge risk of his knee, IMO.  If the knee weren't a factor, you would say "he was only going into his 3rd year, we haven't yet seen his ceiling" and grade him higher on potential.

 

But, knee

1 hour ago, BigBuff423 said:

Personally, I prefer using a bit more objectivity for evaluating a QB, i.e. the Parcells criteria. It's been said before, but only TWO of the major 6 meet that criteria: 

1. Baker Mayfield

2. Mason Rudolph

 

I'd take Rudolph all day at 21 and trade back 22 if possible, and know I've got an accurate, prototypical size QB, with good pocket awareness, NFL arm (not great, but good enough), experienced, and with no off-field distractions. Also, people who say Mason plays in a one read Offense are using an old narrative and it's lazy. In his first two years as Sophmore and Junior, that's a fair assessment for the most part, but in his Senior year you can see him going through progressions, making reads across the field and making all the throws at all levels of the field. No, he is nowhere near the pure passer Josh Rosen is, and he can't even tie Josh Allen's shoelaces in regards to arm strength, but his arm is NFL capable. As was Peyton Manning and Tom Brady's...their greatest gift was accuracy and football intelligence. IMHO, Rudy has those and with the right team, ala Daboll's Offense with some RPO, he can be a great pocket passer and lead a proficient Offense, just as he did at Ok. State.

 

What are the Parcells criteria?

 

I don't see Rudolph making the multiple reads and progressions you see - if you want to point me at any film you feel shows good examples I'll go - and he also seems to take a pass on collee=tight windows.  He does seem to use his eyes to manipulate the defense nicely.  I would prefer Mayfield if we can get him, lack of inches and all.  The NFL is littered with failed prospects who "look the way you want your QB to look"

[BigBuff423]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Bridgewater may be an upgrade over Taylor, but he hasn't (statistically) yet SHOWN enough results that are an upgrade over Taylor to overcome the huge risk of his knee, IMO.  If the knee weren't a factor, you would say "he was only going into his 3rd year, we haven't yet seen his ceiling" and grade him higher on potential.

 

But, knee

 

What are the Parcells criteria?

 

I don't see Rudolph making the multiple reads and progressions you see - if you want to point me at any film you feel shows good examples I'll go - and he also seems to take a pass on collee=tight windows.  He does seem to use his eyes to manipulate the defense nicely.  I would prefer Mayfield if we can get him, lack of inches and all.  The NFL is littered with failed prospects who "look the way you want your QB to look"

 

Parcells' criteria as follows:

 

• Be a three-year starter
• Be a senior in college
• Graduate from college
• Start 30 games
• Win 23 games
• Post a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio
• Compete at least 60-percent of passes thrown

[simool]

1 hour ago, BigBuff423 said:

Personally, I prefer using a bit more objectivity for evaluating a QB, i.e. the Parcells criteria.

 

I never really had given this much thought, but it is an interesting way to look at it.

 

Check out this article from 2011 evaluating the QB prospects using the Parcells criteria and the 26-27-60 rule. We all know how they turned out...

 

Link

 

Quote

 

With two of our sets of quarterback evaluation "rules" taken care of, here's how these nine prospects all fared in both of them:

Jake Locker - Failed 26-27-60 (completion % too low), failed Parcells rules (not enough wins as a starter)
Colin Kaepernick - Failed 26-27-60 (completion % too low), passed Parcells rules
Ricky Stanzi - Failed 26-27-60 (completion % too low), passed Parcells rules
Christian Ponder - Passed 26-27-60, failed Parcells rules (not enough wins as a starter)
Cam Netwon - Failed 26-27-60 (not enough games played), failed Parcells rules (not a senior or graduate)
Greg McElroy - Passed 26-27-60, failed Parcells rules (not a three-year starter)
Andy Dalton - Passed 26-27-60, passed Parcells rules
Ryan Mallett - Failed 26-27-60 (completion % too low), failed Parcells rules (not a senior or graduate)
Blaine Gabbert - Passed 26-27-60, failed Parcells rules (not a senior or graduate)

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

I'm not very high on Bridgewater. Could he be better than Taylor? Maybe. Could he be a lot better than Taylor? Doubt it.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, simool said:

 

I never really had given this much thought, but it is an interesting way to look at it.

 

Check out this article from 2011 evaluating the QB prospects using the Parcells criteria and the 26-27-60 rule. We all know how they turned out...

 

Link

 

 

 

In the criteria BigBuff gave, 60% completion percentage is one of the Parcells guidelines so how could Ricki Stanzi fail 26-27-60 due to low completion percentage but pass Parcells rules (which also require 60% completion)?

 

Confuszled Hapless

[simool]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

In the criteria BigBuff gave, 60% completion percentage is one of the Parcells guidelines so how could Ricki Stanzi fail 26-27-60 due to low completion percentage but pass Parcells rules (which also require 60% completion)?

 

Confuszled Hapless

 

As far as I know Hap, Parcells only had 4 rules.  I thinl BigBuff may have merged Parcells and the 26-27-60 rules.

 

Here is another Parcells link: http://smartfootball.com/quarterbacking/bill-parcells-four-rules-for-drafting-a-quarterback

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, simool said:

 

As far as I know Hap, Parcells only had 4 rules.  I thinl BigBuff may have merged Parcells and the 26-27-60 rules.

 

Here is another Parcells link: http://smartfootball.com/quarterbacking/bill-parcells-four-rules-for-drafting-a-quarterback

 

"As announced on Monday Night Football, via Blatant Homerism:

1. He must be a senior, because you need time and maturity to develop into a good professional quarterback.
2. He must be a graduate, because you want someone who takes his responsibilities seriously.
3. He must be a three-year starter, because you need to make sure his success wasn’t ephemeral and that he has lived as “the guy” for some period of time.
4. He must have at least 23 wins, because the big passing numbers must come in the context of winning games."

So the bit about start 30 games and TD/INT and completion % aren't part of that, though 30 games might be inferred from "3 year starter" (what's the college season? 13 games?)

TD/INT isn't part of the 26-27-60 rule (and as the name implies, it's 27 not 30)

 

Any idea how today's QB measure up against that?  It seems fairly rough to hold the QB accountable for the team's W-L record.

 

[BigBuff423]

15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Bridgewater may be an upgrade over Taylor, but he hasn't (statistically) yet SHOWN enough results that are an upgrade over Taylor to overcome the huge risk of his knee, IMO.  If the knee weren't a factor, you would say "he was only going into his 3rd year, we haven't yet seen his ceiling" and grade him higher on potential.

 

But, knee

 

What are the Parcells criteria?

 

I don't see Rudolph making the multiple reads and progressions you see - if you want to point me at any film you feel shows good examples I'll go - and he also seems to take a pass on collee=tight windows.  He does seem to use his eyes to manipulate the defense nicely.  I would prefer Mayfield if we can get him, lack of inches and all.  The NFL is littered with failed prospects who "look the way you want your QB to look"

 

Here's a link to just 7+ minutes of highlights from his Senior season:

 

Against Pitt at the 1:20 mark of the video, you see him moving in the pocket keeping his eyes down field going through the routes, then he escapes out of the pocket doing the same thing....

At the 2:03 mark against TCU as he scrambles once again just outside the pocket as protection breaks down, he runs a bit and throws the ball in between three defenders into a narrow window for the TD

At the 2:27 mark against Texas Tech he's going through different routes and finds his receiver

AT the 2:34 mark he looks through routes and fits a ball into tight coverage for a TD

At 4:26 he looks across the field from right to left and finds the back for the short TD

At the 5:25 mark he's shifting his feet and looking in various spots across the field, resets and throws a TD

At the 5:37 mark he looks left, then right and makes the throw for a TD

 

I've only included what are truly obvious examples to me, so that it doesn't leave much room for interpretation. But there are instances in that video where you can see him hold the Safety or Corner with a pump fake or where he's looking only to throw to a different receiver, as well as doing a nice job on some run fakes or in one instance toward the end of the video, he looks like he's going to throw to the RB in the flat to his left, only to throw to the receiver down the right boundary and I didn't include this because to me it looks like a scripted screen fake, but he does a nice of job with it nonetheless. 

 

However, for more video or examples, Chris Traspasso has done a nice job covering him and as I've mentioned before in different threads, Traspasso has him rated as QB1 in this Draft for much of the reasons I've mentioned and just happen to agree with him about. 

[simool]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Any idea how today's QB measure up against that?  It seems fairly rough to hold the QB accountable for the team's W-L record.

 

 

No, but if someone had the time it would not be tough to tabulate.  I too think it is not a good measure.  Here is an excellent follow-up from the SI writer who originally created that 26-27-60 rule. unfortunately all of the links to the original article appear to be broken: http://houston.cbslocal.com/2014/04/14/what-the-rule-of-26-27-60-tells-us-four-years-later-and-what-it-says-about-manziel-bortles-bridgewater-etc/

[BillsVet]

24 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

Parcells' criteria as follows:

 

• Be a three-year starter
• Be a senior in college
• Graduate from college
• Start 30 games
• Win 23 games
• Post a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio
• Compete at least 60-percent of passes thrown

 

I understand trying to build a solid criteria to determine which QB to take. At the same time, while head of the Dolphins in '08, BP decided to take Jake Long over Matt Ryan.

 

Long is now retired and Ryan is among the better NFL QBs.

 

There's risk involved taking a QB and sometimes even good GMs fail in that respect. Ozzie Newsome taking Kyle Boller in '03 comes to mind. The point is, being scared and going the safe route leads to perpetual mediocrity.

[BigBuff423]

10 minutes ago, simool said:

 

As far as I know Hap, Parcells only had 4 rules.  I thinl BigBuff may have merged Parcells and the 26-27-60 rules.

 

Here is another Parcells link: http://smartfootball.com/quarterbacking/bill-parcells-four-rules-for-drafting-a-quarterback

 

Unfortunately as with most things on the internet, the truth and facts get conflated with reality. Parcells had 7 criteria and even though they are as I listed, but there is a wealth of information out there linking the actual 7 criteria Parcells took to evaluate QBs...

 

1 minute ago, BillsVet said:

 

I understand trying to build a solid criteria to determine which QB to take. At the same time, while head of the Dolphins in '08, BP decided to take Jake Long over Matt Ryan.

 

Long is now retired and Ryan is among the better NFL QBs.

 

There's risk involved taking a QB and sometimes even good GMs fail in that respect. Ozzie Newsome taking Kyle Boller in '03 comes to mind. The point is, being scared and going the safe route leads to perpetual mediocrity.

 

Agreed, and with anything subjective, there's always going to be hits and misses as there are great QBs who don't meet that criteria. A recent one, Dak, flew under everyone's radar but has demonstrated he can win - so having *some* kind of metric or tool that takes into account actual football played, seems less about athleticism or Wonderlic scores or even interviews, it becomes about a resume. And the resume seems to be a good indicator of future success, IMHO.....not always by any means, but at least it provides a balance to the "eye test" or even underwear champions we'll see this week at the Combine.