Bridge QB Reality Check

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

 

hey, honestly, you're one of the more knowledgeable posters here. but that's coming from people like me.

 

it was all in fun.

 

 

No worries, and I am sure I let it annoy me more than it should...all good in the internet land man!  HA

 

No if we can just find a way to land one of the big QB's I think we will all have reason to rejoice 

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I disagree with your analysis.  I'd put the Bills ahead of the Jets and Cleveland as options for someone like a Sam Bradford.  And even if they don't get Bradford there is McCarron and Bridgewater and McCown and Fitzpatrick.  The Bills are not going to struggle to find a bridge Quarterback.  There are loads of them out there.  Bradford is probably the number 1 "bridge guy" but he is far from the only option.  They have to rip off the band aid on Tyrod.  Even if it means a downgrade bridge for what we both agree could be a very small number of games at the start of 2018 (if they even make it out of camp not already the backup).  

You captured my thoughts. It's just time to move on from him. He is a terrific and diligent person. He deserves a fresh start and so do the Bills. The Bills would have a lot more flexibility in this draft if they would have drafted Mahomes (my preference) or Watson (your preference) last year. Because of the "just get by" qb philosophy the Bills have been a stagnant franchise. It's time to give it a jolt with some fresh faces. 

[Big Gun]

3 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

No, it's pretty common now actually. Why do you not want to give credit to a QB who sees an opportunity and runs for a TD? Guys like Newton, Rodgers, Wilson, Smith, Cousins, and yes even Brady give it purpose.

Maybe in your world it is but in the real world, no it isn't.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

3 hours ago, GrizzReaper said:

Sign Fitz! LoL

 

...he's been hanging around Bflo lately......house hunting??..............

[grb]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I disagree with your analysis.  I'd put the Bills ahead of the Jets and Cleveland as options for someone like a Sam Bradford.  And even if they don't get Bradford there is McCarron and Bridgewater and McCown and Fitzpatrick.  The Bills are not going to struggle to find a bridge Quarterback.  There are loads of them out there.  Bradford is probably the number 1 "bridge guy" but he is far from the only option.  They have to rip off the band aid on Tyrod.  Even if it means a downgrade bridge for what we both agree could be a very small number of games at the start of 2018 (if they even make it out of camp not already the backup).  

 

Two points about this :

• First, it's nice to see this stated without pretense. There a lot of Bills fans who want a new quarterback even if he's worse than Taylor, so why not admit it? Hell, there are even some hardcore COPs out there (Cult of Peterman), and that's their exclusive message. Of course the "rip off the band aid" shtick is meaningless blather, but ya can't have everything
• Second, you'll likely get your wish. What do you think the McCarrons, McCowns, and Fitzpatricks will do when inserted into Buffalo's offense? Most mocks I've seen are defense-heavy, even if there isn't a push to package picks and move up. The Bills' o-line is a mess, their receivers are a mess, their running game took a big step back last year via another useless scheme change, and McCoy desperately needs back-up relief. I'm not sure a huge amount of help is on the way. Whatever Non-Taylor parachutes into this mess is supposed to shine merely by being the Non-Taylor, rookie or veteran bridge. Really? Don't be surprised if it turns out otherwise.....

 

 

Edited February 26, 2018 by grb

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, grb said:

 

Two points about this :

• First, it's nice to see this stated without pretense. There a lot of Bills fans who want a new quarterback even if he's worse than Taylor, so why not admit it? Hell, there are even some hardcore COPs out there (Cult of Peterman), and that's their exclusive message. Of course the "rip off the band aid" shtick is meaningless blather, but ya can't have everything
• Second, you'll likely get your wish. What do you think the McCarrons, McCowns, and Fitzpatricks will do when inserted into Buffalo's offense? Most mocks I've seen are defense-heavy, even if there isn't a push to package picks and move up. The Bills' o-line is a mess, their receivers are a mess, their running game took a big step back last year via another useless scheme change, and McCoy desperately needs back-up relief. I'm not sure a huge amount of help is on the way. Whatever Non-Taylor parachutes into this mess is supposed to shine merely by being the Non-Taylor, rookie or veteran bridge. Really? Don't be surprised if it turns out otherwise.....

 

 

 

It isn't meaningless blather. The Bills should 100% trade up for the best rookie Quarterback they can get and in that scenario they need only a short term vet solution. Telling me that person will instantly be worse than Taylor is pure cult of Tyrod fiction.

 

Then you throw the Peterman name out like that is a defense. I thought Peterman sucked as an NFL prospect pre-draft. He was borderline undraftable. I am not at all surprised he sucked. 

 

See it is easier to dismiss Taylor's critics when you accuse them all of clamouring for Peterman or not having a viable alternative. A year ago I was advocating for drafting Watson and sigining Keenum... they said that was not a viable alternative as well. Some people will find any excuse to hang on to the hope that Tyrod figures it out. He won't. He is what he is. Time to rip the band aid off. 

 

[SouthNYfan]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It isn't meaningless blather. The Bills should 100% trade up for the best rookie Quarterback they can get and in that scenario they need only a short term vet solution. Telling me that person will instantly be worse than Taylor is pure cult of Tyrod fiction.

 

Then you throw the Peterman name out like that is a defense. I thought Peterman sucked as an NFL prospect pre-draft. He was borderline undraftable. I am not at all surprised he sucked. 

 

See it is easier to dismiss Taylor's critics when you accuse them all of clamouring for Peterman or not having a viable alternative. A year ago I was advocating for drafting Watson and sigining Keenum... they said that was not a viable alternative as well. Some people will find any excuse to hang on to the hope that Tyrod figures it out. He won't. He is what he is. Time to rip the band aid off. 

 

 

I feel like the patient has already bled out at this point 

 

With you 100% my brother.

 

I have a pile of texts to my friend last year about Watson as well.

 

I was not very happy we didn't draft him.

 

Even more unhappy when he started trashing defenses.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Rodgers and Big Ben don't surprise me.  Flacco does a bit.  I wonder how many of Brady's were half yard and less sneaks?  

 

Considering years where Brady has 2 or 3 TD, he averages something like 2 or 3 YPG, safe betting is "most of them"

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Im not defending TT, so sorry if it came across that way, but its mostly because of all the side tracked conversation.  

 

Bottom line is this...we can and have won with TT.  So if we are going to draft a rookie high, like a trade up even, then why not just stick with the 1 year deal with TT.  Let the rookie battle it out in preseason to wither win the job outright or take the job over sometime during the year.  Now TT's is gone in 2019 and it costs us nothing.  If we spend more money on a QB than TT and for a multiyear deal, then Bills have a high priced backup eating cap space in 2019 instead of having that cap space to keep adding more to the team.  Thats all I am saying in regards to TT.

 

This I agree with, actually.  80% of the fans on this board might melt down, but to me the bottom line is: I think Beane wants to improve the QB position now and in the future.  I want them to draft a rookie.  If he's a rookie that should only need a year, or part of a year, then the question becomes "can we get someone who is a clear and significant upgrade on TT, but willing to sign on to only start for for one year?"

 

But please keep in mind that even at the very top of the draft, the failure rate for QB is significant (1:4 or 1:3) and falls off quickly; many of the eventual successes do need >1 year.  If a QB comes in and plays well, he can keep the rookie sitting, and the rookie might not show enough readiness in TC and preseason/occasional games to come off the bench for a couple years.   Every QB who has played in the NFL has enough ego to think that given the right circumstance, he can be That Guy.

 

8 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 Personally, I think if we can trade TT thats the best solution, then just let NP start and see if he can show he has an NFL career while the rookie sits until he is ready to play.  If NP fails, who cares, only helps our 2019 draft outlook.  If NP shows value, then we could actually have a trade chip in him potentially moving forward.

 

This is where I part ways.  If McBeane is to be believed that we are dedicated to winning now and in the future, there is NFW Nathan Peterman should be our option to a rookie at this point.  I'm not saying Peterman is trash, and if he's beefed up and worked his a** off and comes into training camp and lights everyone's hair on fire sure - give him a shot.  But don't plan on that.  Who cares?

 

What I'm telling you is from the way Beane and McDermott have behaved and what they've said, they care.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This I agree with, actually.  80% of the fans on this board might melt down, but to me the bottom line is: I think Beane wants to improve the QB position now and in the future.  I want them to draft a rookie.  If he's a rookie that should only need a year, or part of a year, then the question becomes "can we get someone who is a clear and significant upgrade on TT, but willing to sign on to only start for for one year?"

 

But please keep in mind that even at the very top of the draft, the failure rate for QB is significant (1:4 or 1:3) and falls off quickly; many of the eventual successes do need >1 year.  If a QB comes in and plays well, he can keep the rookie sitting, and the rookie might not show enough readiness in TC and preseason/occasional games to come off the bench for a couple years.   Every QB who has played in the NFL has enough ego to think that given the right circumstance, he can be That Guy.

 

 

This is where I part ways.  If McBeane is to be believed that we are dedicated to winning now and in the future, there is NFW Nathan Peterman should be our option to a rookie at this point.  I'm not saying Peterman is trash, and if he's beefed up and worked his a** off and comes into training camp and lights everyone's hair on fire sure - give him a shot.  But don't plan on that.  Who cares?

 

What I'm telling you is from the way Beane and McDermott have behaved and what they've said, they care.

 

 

 

All good, and when I say who cares, keep in mind, I am talking about from our perspective, not players and GM.  Of course they care, but also I would want my GM less worried about who the bridge is and more concerned on getting that rookie and getting him on the field.

[atlbillsfan1975]

On 2/25/2018 at 5:01 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Its not that I want Tyrod...its that Tyrod makes the most sense.  Im fine with him at QB until the rookie takes his job during the year or next when TT's contract is up.  I would rather trade TT and get an asset then role out with Peterman (I dont care if we lose games while our rookie sits) or some cheap FA backup QB.  I mean if we go QB high in the draft, we aren't thinking super bowl in 2018...we are building for 2019 and beyond.  So the "vet" QB is completely insignificant and best to just keep the affordable guy we have on a 1 year deal or trade him for an asset and role with the rookie as our starter or NP starting a couple games before the rookie comes in.

Ok, I found where you and I can agree to disagree. Tyrod doesn’t make the most sense to me. I know what Tyrod is and honestly I don’t want to watch it anymore. I understand that Bradford, Bridgewater, Keenum, or whichever other  Vet comes in will probably have similar results in the win loss category as Tyrod. My selfish desire is not to watch Tyrod play. It also doesn’t make sense from a continuity stand point to bring Tyrod back because there is a new OC and offensive coaches. If the Bills bring Tyrod back after drafting a QB in round one, I won’t be totally disappointed. My disappointment will be squashed by the hope that we might of  finally found our QB for the next 10-15 years through the draft. I have given every QB the Bills have trotted out since Kelly a chance. I have wanted them all to be the guy. I have given everyone 2 seasons to show me what they are. To show progression. Tyrod is the same quarterback today as he was when he won the starting job to begin with. It’s time to move on or at least get the moving forward plan in place for 2019.

Edited February 27, 2018 by atlbillsfan1975

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

On 2/25/2018 at 1:46 PM, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

yet, another taylor thread.

 

 

There is a lot of that going around .....  

then they bump the offshoots instead of the main topics.  

 

[transplantbillsfan]

On ‎2‎/‎26‎/‎2018 at 5:04 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Bradford?  Yes he is an excellent passer.  That is why he was a #1 overall pick, at a point when teams signing a #1 overall pick had no salary limits and knew they had to back up the Brinks truck.  Fact: 2016 20 TD passes.  In 8 years in the league,  Bradford's record is 21 TD passes in a year where he threw 13 INT.  When Tyrod threw 20 TD in 2015, I had the impression that wasn't enough for us here.

 

But those are nits.  You say "(Bradford) was definitely on his way last year before the injury to his knee".  That's the crux of the Bradford problem right there.

In 2013, Bradford was finally on his way!  Then he injured his knee.

In 2014, Bradford was gonna come back rehabbed and stronger than ever - then he re injured his knee

In 2017, Bradford was definitely on his way - then he re injured his knee for the 3rd time.

 

At this point Bradford has played 38 out of 80 games - less than half - of his last 5 seasons.  He also missed 6 games due to an ankle sprain his second year.

 

How many times do you have to pencil a guy in as a starter and think "he's definitely on his way!" only to see him go out from injury, before you decide he's not reliable?

 

 

I'm actually amazed that anyone thinks Bradford is really worth anything at this point.

 

So

 

many

 

injuries.

 

 

This isn't about risk vs. reward.  It's about when the injury will happen.  Hell, Bradford isn't even the vet FA QB with a knee problem from his own team.  Bridgewater before Bradford, but I think you stay away from him, too.

 

To me, the only vet FA QBs worth even pursuing as potential starters are Kirk Cousins and Case Keenum.  Yet, at the same time I'd pretty quickly eliminate both from the list because of how much they'll cost.

 

Cousins or bust for vet QBs... that's it.  But I'd very much prefer a drafted guy in the 1st.  And I think OBD would, too.  And as the OP laid it all out, that's why I think Taylor staying is highly likely.  And his primary exit from the team would be via a massive trade up that involves another QB who is much more obviously a backup  than TT.

 

Like here would be a possible trade I think could happen and I'd be good with it.  Assuming Darnold/Rosen or maybe Mayfield are still sitting there at pick #5, Bills make a trade with Denver.

 

Bills get pick # 5 and Trevor Siemian.

 

Broncos get pick #21, pick #53, one of our 5ths and Tyrod Taylor.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

29 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I'm actually amazed that anyone thinks Bradford is really worth anything at this point.

 

So

 

many

 

injuries.

 

 

This isn't about risk vs. reward.  It's about when the injury will happen.  Hell, Bradford isn't even the vet FA QB with a knee problem from his own team.  Bridgewater before Bradford, but I think you stay away from him, too.

 

To me, the only vet FA QBs worth even pursuing as potential starters are Kirk Cousins and Case Keenum.  Yet, at the same time I'd pretty quickly eliminate both from the list because of how much they'll cost.

 

Cousins or bust for vet QBs... that's it.  But I'd very much prefer a drafted guy in the 1st.  And I think OBD would, too.  And as the OP laid it all out, that's why I think Taylor staying is highly likely.  And his primary exit from the team would be via a massive trade up that involves another QB who is much more obviously a backup  than TT.

 

Like here would be a possible trade I think could happen and I'd be good with it.  Assuming Darnold/Rosen or maybe Mayfield are still sitting there at pick #5, Bills make a trade with Denver.

 

Bills get pick # 5 and Trevor Siemian.

 

Broncos get pick #21, pick #53, one of our 5ths and Tyrod Taylor.

Going by the updated draft pick value chart it looks like you have Taylor equal to a 4th rd pick. I don't think Denver is trading a 4th for Taylor.

[transplantbillsfan]

On ‎2‎/‎26‎/‎2018 at 6:00 AM, corta765 said:

This would be the point I remind the OP that Tyrod Taylor himself hit the open market and came BACK to Buffalo for less because suitors didn't think he was worth the money he wanted.

 

No, he didn't.

 

There's never been a moment since 2015 when Tyrod Taylor has not been under contract with the Buffalo Bills.

 

Sorry.

On ‎2‎/‎26‎/‎2018 at 6:05 AM, buffalobloodfloridahome said:

Bradford is a perfect bridge you just play him until his knees fail then start the rookie. As long as he can get a few games into the season we would be just fine.

 

Yeah, right.  And then when his knees fail you're left with a rookie and noodle-armed Nate.  Wonderful idea   

[John from Riverside]

20 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

I feel like the patient has already bled out at this point 

 

With you 100% my brother.

 

I have a pile of texts to my friend last year about Watson as well.

 

I was not very happy we didn't draft him.

 

Even more unhappy when he started trashing defenses.

 

 

Bled out?

 

WE MADE THE PLAYOFFS LAST YEAR

 

You dont do that with a QB that "bled you out"

 

Better is needed to take the next step.....that much is freely admitted.....a QB needs to be drafted....and a viable alternate QB needs to be found that wont cause a REGRESSION of the team

 

but lets not make it something that it is not.

 

Tyrod led the offense to the 6th most scored points in the NFL 2 years ago

 

Last year we made the playoffs

 

 

[xRUSHx]

40 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Bills make a trade with Denver.

 

Bills get pick # 5 and Trevor Siemian.

 

Broncos get pick #21, pick #53, one of our 5ths and Tyrod Taylor.

Hahahaha, yeah right,

Man would Denver have to be really dumb for a trade like that. Let's say just for giggles Tyrod is worth maybe a 7th round pick and Trevor is worth maybe  a 6th round pick, Denver is already losing out on the trade.

So lets say if we take both(Tyrod and Siemian) out of your idea of a trade that leaves not enough trade value to get up to #5,  Hahaha

  So in short IMO trading for pick 5 you must think Tyrod is worth at least a 1st round pick to get Denver to not only give up pick 5 but also throw in Siemian, right...SMH, haha, now that is a good one, thanks for the laugh, what is even funnier is I bet you were serious with this trade.

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, xRUSHx said:

Hahahaha, yeah right,

Man would Denver have to be really dumb for a trade like that. Let's say just for giggles Tyrod is worth maybe a 7th round pick and Trevor is worth maybe  a 6th round pick, Denver is already losing out on the trade.

So lets say if we take both(Tyrod and Siemian) out of your idea of a trade that leaves not enough trade value to get up to #5,  Hahaha

  So in short IMO trading for pick 5 you must think Tyrod is worth at least a 1st round pick to get Denver to not only give up pick 5 but also throw in Siemian, right...SMH, haha, now that is a good one, thanks for the laugh, what is even funnier is I bet you were serious with this trade.

Siemian is not a better qb then TT....no matter had bad you want that to be.

 

I am starting to thing Tyrod didnt show up at Prom for you

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

Just now, xRUSHx said:

Hahahaha, yeah right,

Man would Denver have to be really dumb for a trade like that. Let's say just for giggles Tyrod is worth maybe a 7th round pick and Trevor is worth maybe  a 6th round pick, Denver is already losing out on the trade.

So lets say if we take both(Tyrod and Siemian) out of your idea of a trade that leaves not enough trade value to get up to #5,  Hahaha

  So in short IMO trading for pick 5 you must think Tyrod is worth at least a 1st round pick to get Denver to not only give up pick 5 but also throw in Siemian, right...SMH, haha, now that is a good one, thanks for the laugh, what is even funnier is I bet you were serious with this trade.

I know, there is still 502 points the Bills would need to throw in to move up. He is evaluating Taylor as a high 2nd or early 4th rd draft pick. If Taylor and Siemian cancel out then the Bills need 502 points to move up which is pick 39 or 40. So basically he has Taylor's trade value as a high 2nd rd pick. Taylor = the 502 of missing draft points that would be needed to trade up. No way the Broncos are giving up high 2nd rd pick for Taylor.

[transplantbillsfan]

On ‎2‎/‎26‎/‎2018 at 7:39 AM, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I'll take my chances between 2015 & 2016 he played 29gms hopefully we get him to get bk to that form.

 

Bradford?

 

Is that who you're talking about?

 

Which do you prefer?

 

Vet QB with a multi-year contract worth north of $10 million, possibly closer to $20 million per year with the following production:

249 Net yards per game

7.0 YPA passing

39 TDs

27 turnovers

 

OR

 

Vet QB on a one-year contract worth between $10-$20 million

235 Net yards per game

7.4 YPA passing

47 TDs

15 turnovers

 

 

You take your chances on that first guy, my guess is McBeane would choose the 2nd guy over that first guy, but I have a nice bridge I can sell you