If You Ever Want a Top Rated QB Prospect...You Have to Suffer

[Hapless Bills Fan]

46 minutes ago, Wily Dog said:

I think McD/Beane will sift the QB market and choose one. We  should hope they choose right but ,  we have to realize that picking a QB is not an exact science and we may have to go to the well more than once. The trouble with the Bill's has been not going to the well often enough.

 

Exactly.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

OP is spot on. Interesting way to put it.

 

We somehow broke our playoff curse. Now let’s get our QB and be a perennial contender. Nothing closes the gap faster than a top end QB and there’s two available this year that we can go get.

 

I’m willing to sacrifice some draft capital to force the issue. It’s been 22 years since our last Franchise QB retired. I’m not willing to wait another year and hope a QB magically falls into our lap.

[sleeby]

A rookie QB here will not likely be good right off - we're not ready for him.  I say we get the best we can at or near round 20 and also start fixing the other needs.  Do we really want to duplicate the colts last few years?  

 

l think many Bills fans are the usual over optimistic as to next year.  We ended the streak by a nose hair and are not two or three key pieces from an AFC championship game appearance right yet.  On offense alone we need OL, QB, WRs (maybe several) and a backup RB.  We all know how we felt in week 16 when shady was punching the turf in pain - it was all over without him. . .an offense with a depth of one guy.  Adding a rookie QB is going to take at least a couple of years to gel. 

Edited February 25, 2018 by sleeby

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

In a vacuum the statment is accurate that top prospect QBs are picked early and the only sure way to get an early pick is to be lousy, like Cleveland bad...

 

however top prospect QBs are not the only path nor a certain path to success.

 

and the list of elite QBs not picked in the first five or so picks is long and distinguished..

 

In fact Elway is the last top 5 pick to win a Super Bowl not named Manning, so in 18 years, only two top 5 picks won. The rest, 6th rd, 3rd round, second round our bottom half of first round. 

 

Edited February 25, 2018 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

21 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

OP is spot on. Interesting way to put it.

 

We somehow broke our playoff curse. Now let’s get our QB and be a perennial contender. Nothing closes the gap faster than a top end QB and there’s two available this year that we can go get.

 

I’m willing to sacrifice some draft capital to force the issue. It’s been 22 years since our last Franchise QB retired. I’m not willing to wait another year and hope a QB magically falls into our lap.

 

The Bills can stay at 21/22 and draft Jackson or Rudolph and they might become HOF, but they wouldn’t be considered the Top Prospects this Draft at the time of the draft.

 

that is what this exercise is all about.  The suffering a team needs to go through to secure the position for the top prospects.

 

so when that guy said “wait” he is putting himself in literally Catch 22.  He doesn’t want to trade and he doesn’t want to be bad but he still wants buffalo to get the top qbs in the draft next season.

 

amd funny I’m not even saying you should suffer for the top guy, but if you want the top prospects you Re going to have to.  In one form or another.

 

greatness isn’t free.

Edited February 25, 2018 by RalphWilson'sNewWar

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

18 hours ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

 

Wilson wasn’t what I would deem a TOP Prospect in that Draft.

and The Eagles gave up picks and Players which many in our fan base can’t even bring themselves to want to do.

 

i do agree though we haven’t really suffered enough,

 

 

Nice spin. The poster you quoted clearly stated the Bills haven't tried hard enough to get a good QB. He gave three examples of teams that tried hard without tanking. 

 

Both the Eagles and Rams acquired their franchise QBs 1 and 2 without having to tank. 

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

6 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Nice spin. The poster you quoted clearly stated the Bills haven't tried hard enough to get a good QB. He gave three examples of teams that tried hard without tanking. 

 

Both the Eagles and Rams acquired their franchise QBs 1 and 2 without having to tank. 

 

Ummm...lol...you really didn’t read the OP did you.  Didn’t think so.

 

buuuuuut.  Trading away multiple picks also fell under suffering.

 

and listening to enough fans and some media...trading up seems to be suffering in many people’s eyes.

 

anyhing else? Or maybe you should go have a coffee and wake up?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

15 hours ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

Refuted by people who think Brady and Wilson and Brees were top prospects going into the draft.  All wrong.

 

What does that even matter? Josh Allen is considered by some to be the top prospect in this draft? Yet most of us will put our remote through the TV if we pick him in the first round. The only thing that matters is if they end up being good in the NFL and if our scouts and GM were able to recognize their potential and spend a draft pick on them.

 

I think our biggest problem since Kelly retired is that we hold onto bad to average QBs too long. JP, Edwards, Fitz, Taylor all were given multiple seasons to develop. The plug should have been pulled  on these guys immediately. EJ was the only one really who was pulled quickly thanks to Marrone. But we didn't really have a back up with potential. That is where repeatedly trying comes into play and the Bills just don't try hard enough as others have said. 

1 minute ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

 

Ummm...lol...you really didn’t read the OP did you.  Didn’t think so.

 

buuuuuut.  Trading away multiple picks also fell under suffering.

 

and listening to enough fans and some media...trading up seems to be suffering in many people’s eyes.

 

anyhing else? Or maybe you should go have a coffee and wake up?

Your OP is wrong then. Trading away multiple picks is not suffering. You only suffer when you finish 1-15, 3-13. It is completely possible to trade away player and picks and not finish 3-13. Trading away picks and players in no way automatically equals suffering. 

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

11 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

What does that even matter? Josh Allen is considered by some to be the top prospect in this draft? Yet most of us will put our remote through the TV if we pick him in the first round. The only thing that matters is if they end up being good in the NFL and if our scouts and GM were able to recognize their potential and spend a draft pick on them.

 

I think our biggest problem since Kelly retired is that we hold onto bad to average QBs too long. JP, Edwards, Fitz, Taylor all were given multiple seasons to develop. The plug should have been pulled  on these guys immediately. EJ was the only one really who was pulled quickly thanks to Marrone. But we didn't really have a back up with potential. That is where repeatedly trying comes into play and the Bills just don't try hard enough as others have said. 

Your OP is wrong then. Trading away multiple picks is not suffering. You only suffer when you finish 1-15, 3-13. It is completely possible to trade away player and picks and not finish 3-13. Trading away picks and players in no way automatically equals suffering. 

 

I actually happen to agree that I don’t consider trading away many things as suffering...however judging from the unwillingness to do it from many media outlets around WNY I would say many fans consider it as a form of suffering.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

How are top prospects Mariota and Winston doing?

 

One of them just got a new HC because  he wasn’t developing fast enough.    

 

The other also isn’t living up to expectations.  

 

Instead of just saying the OP is wrong  cite specific names to bolster your argument.  

Edited February 25, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan

[sleeby]

Trading up is too high a cost for a team with so many holes.  It will mean suffering - as in N8 P's first half of NFL suffering.  That kid was terrorized out there and should have been sacked all day long but rather panicked and threw dumb ints.  The throws he did make were often inexplicably dropped by his mates. 

 

Giving it all up for a top QB in this draft will mean another rookie qb's sufferage for us to watch.  Then when he chooses to run the ball repeatedly (fight or flight) many here will be upset about that.  Ha.  Much suffering I see.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 hours ago, Happy Gilmore said:

Point taken.  Question: how do you view the Sammy Watkins trade up, was it worth it?  IMO, there is no difference, aside from position, between that and trading up for a QB.

 

The position is a major difference.  Every team needs a premier QB.  If you're seeking one, and there's ONE who you feel has all the pieces including durability (not one of four, each with different risks), it's worth taking your shot almost regardless of the cost.  As others have said, you fail at 100% of the shots you don't take.

 

There is one QB with significant playing time on every team, college and pro.  That means there are a limited number of QB who have the skill set and play against a high enough level of competition that they're candidates for a trade-up.  In contrast, there are 4-6x as many WR, and their performance is even more strongly affected by the offense they're in, the skill of their QB, and the level of competition they face, making evaluation even more uncertain.

The position is the reason I was against the Sammy trade up (even though I thought I understood the rationale), and the reason I am for a QB trade-up (for the right QB, the one that they see as the full package, not '1 of 4 guys')

 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

25 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

How are top prospects Mariota and Winston doing?

 

One of them just got a new HC because  he wasn’t developing fast enough.    

 

The other also isn’t living up to expectations.  

 

Instead of just saying the OP is wrong  cite specific names to bolster your argument.  

 

...realistically though bud, how many top prospects (let's define that as 1st rounders) have actually performed to expectations in the last decade+?.......Rodgers, Smith, Ryan, Bradford (pre-injuries), Stafford (possibly), Luck (pre-injury) come to mind initially (apologize if I missed someone).....IMO. "performing to and/or exceeding expectations" is the exception versus the rule.....look at the list of those well below expectations or out of football....and some of those "well below" guys are still extorting a paycheck because of desperation...Jesus, a Jugs machine draped with a uniform in the backfield would be a helluva lot better than some of those extortionists......thus, I'm not in favor of moving up and investing major draft capital in ONE player who joins your club "as is where is, no warranty expressed or implied" as well as "NO money back or draft capital return guarantees"......

[DanInUticaTampa]

16 hours ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

2 out of your 3 were not considered Top Prospects going into the draft.

 

do you see what I’m saying?

Okay going to try one more time.

 

i am excluding QBs who are “the man” for their team now because they were not considered generally to be TOP PROSPECTS going into the draft.

 

how do I put this...don’t look at what happened.  Look at what was.

 

the only way to get Cam Newton was to be the worst team in the league the prior season or trade with Carolina.  Only way.

 

newton was the Top Prospect.  You couldn’t wait for him to slide or anything else.

 

if you tell me you don’t want to trade up for a QB this season.  The only way you are getting the TOP RATED College QBs in 2019 is being bad or trading 

 

being bad or trading.

 

the bills will not be 9-7 in 2018 and simply have the top QB Prospect fall to them.

 

 

 

The goal is not to get a "top prospect". The goal is to get a successful NFL qb. The idea that you need a top prospect to get a franchise qb is ridiculous

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I think our biggest problem since Kelly retired is that we hold onto bad to average QBs too long. JP, Edwards, Fitz, Taylor all were given multiple seasons to develop. The plug should have been pulled  on these guys immediately. EJ was the only one really who was pulled quickly thanks to Marrone. But we didn't really have a back up with potential. That is where repeatedly trying comes into play and the Bills just don't try hard enough as others have said. 

 

This is exactly right.  Hmmmm, maybe not "pulled on those guys immediately".  But we needed to be more aggressive in exploring other options and having a plan to give them more time to develop if needed. 

 

We tend to put all our eggs in one QB basket, instead of keeping our options open.

 

Losman was drafted in 2004 and sat a year.  Badlands Meanie (I think) posted about attending a Bills open training camp practice and seeing flaws that indicated Losman was just not ready to go yet.  But, we started him anyway.  Why?  Because our alternative was a 32 year old career backup with a recent average of 180 ypg and career almost as many INT as TD.  Instead, we could have kept Bledsoe for one more year and looked at giving him the pieces to recover his 2002 form, which he fundamentally did in Dallas with better WR and OL.   He almost took us to the playoffs in 2004!  One Game!   I'm gonna guess we were "cheaping it" .  Then the Bills only further investment in QB being a 3rd round pick, Trent Edwards in 2007.  Why not position ourselves to take a shot at a 3-4 rd QB in 2005/6?  Or look for a better alternative as a FA or trade?

 

Then we stayed with Edwards for 4 years, with NO further investment in QB except a minor trade for a backup, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and a practice squad signing (Brian Brohm)

 

You don't want to pull the plug on a guy prematurely.  But until you have a franchise guy and  a solid backup, you simply just sit on your cards for 3-4 years.  Serial minimalism is a sure recipe for being "a day late and a dollar short"

 

 

Quote

Your OP is wrong then. Trading away multiple picks is not suffering. You only suffer when you finish 1-15, 3-13. It is completely possible to trade away player and picks and not finish 3-13. Trading away picks and players in no way automatically equals suffering. 

 

This.

Edited February 25, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

17 minutes ago, DanInUticaTampa said:

 

The goal is not to get a "top prospect". The goal is to get a successful NFL qb. The idea that you need a top prospect to get a franchise qb is ridiculous

 

The goal is absolutely to draft the top prospects in any draft.  And the only thing any professional franchise can attempt to control is their access to the most available top prospects in their drafts.  And the higher up you are the more picks are left on the board.  And you only get their by suffering.

 

now buffalo choose to not suffer on the field.  A solid 4-12 season would have been sufficient...but...a missed call here, a missed field goal their and Miami’s 4th string QB and they are 9-7...

so now if they want cream of the crop QB Prospect they will suffer in another way by forgoing their draft capital to move up.

Edited February 25, 2018 by RalphWilson'sNewWar

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, DanInUticaTampa said:

 

The goal is not to get a "top prospect". The goal is to get a successful NFL qb. The idea that you need a top prospect to get a franchise qb is ridiculous

 

The top 2 picks of the draft are where the odds of getting a franchise QB are highest.  But a significant number of teams do manage to put competent QB play on the field without going there, whether by taking enough shots later in the draft that they find someone (Patriots) or by waiting until someone else's shots hit paydirt (SF, Cousins FA), or by incremental improvement (Eagles) that allow them to both have a backup plan(s) to hedge against failure or to recoup some of their investment if things work out.

 

20 minutes ago, DanInUticaTampa said:

The goal is not to get a "top prospect". The goal is to get a successful NFL qb. The idea that you need a top prospect to get a franchise qb is ridiculous

 

Just keep in mind you're talking to someone who has self announced that he "never gets in a fight he won't win".  This probably means he's a legend in his own mind, and completely invested in maintaining his position (so he can "win") no matter what arguments or evidence is presented to counter his position.

7 minutes ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

 

The goal is absolutely to draft the top prospects in any draft.  And the only thing any professional franchise can attempt to control is their access to the most available top prospects in their drafts.  And the higher up you are the more picks are left on the board.  And you only get their by suffering.

 

I see.  Thank you for clearing that up.  Of course, the fact that you've retrospectively limited the "top prospects before the draft" to "guys actually drafted at the top of the class", and limited top QB to "top prospects who were actually drafted at the top of the class" does effectively "prove" your tautological conclusion.

Edited February 25, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The top 2 picks of the draft are where the odds of getting a franchise QB are highest.  But a significant number of teams do manage to put competent QB play on the field without going there, whether by taking enough shots later in the draft that they find someone (Patriots) or by waiting until someone else's shots hit paydirt (SF, Cousins FA), or by incremental improvement (Eagles) that allow them to both have a backup plan(s) to hedge against failure or to recoup some of their investment if things work out.

 

 

Just keep in mind you're talking to someone who has self announced that he "never gets in a fight he won't win".  This probably means he's a legend in his own mind, and completely invested in maintaining his position (so he can "win") no matter what arguments or evidence is presented to counter his position.

 

I see.  Thank you for clearing that up.  Of course, the fact that you've retrospectively limited the "top prospects before the draft" to "guys actually drafted at the top of the class", and limited top QB to "top prospects who were actually drafted at the top of the class" does effectively "prove" your tautological conclusion.

 

It is too bad we couldn’t find common ground.

 

tell you what since you seem to believe the opposite...you send me a message when Darnold or Allen or mayfield are drafted by the Vikings simply sitting at 30.  I won’t hold my breath 

 

I will be busy watching the draft and seeing teams trade up /pay the price / “Suffer” to move up and acquire that top talent and not wait or I will see teams that “suffered” in 2017 by being bad select that top talent.

 

but I promise...I will keep one eye open for your text on Darnold to the Vikings.

[Thurman#1]

22 hours ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

I feel this gets lost in the debate over Drafting QBs.

 

i only see it two ways into getting the top QB Talent (I should preface...agreed upon QB talent seeing as Manuel was the first QB taken, but no one believed in that class and we even traded down.)

 

You either have to...

 

1.)  Suffer by being an awful team the season before.

 

or

 

2.)  Suffer by sacrificing current players and draft capital to trade up in the draft.

 

Those are the only two options as I see it reason I’ve been thinking about this was a gentleman called up John Murphy show past week and said to John and Donald we need to wait on draft a QB “do it next season “and I was sitting listening to him and I wanted to ask that caller “sir do you realize to do it next season you’re going to have to sign up for being an awful team in 2018 or you’re going to have to trade all of your draft picks away which is what you don’t want to do this season and I believe that fans who don’t want to trade up also don’t want to be bad either.

and Buffalo seems stuck in this never ending loop.

 

Keep Tyrod until you find some better.  Well there will never be anyone in FA Better, because why would they be available if they were better.  And no rookie is going to come in immediately and you can say 100% They are better immediately.  Again stuck in a loop.

 

stuck in a loop and unwilling to pay the price.

 

 

Pass on the keep Tyrod part. Bring in an FA QB who fits the system so everyone can work in the system they want to run, not to mention because $23 mill in cap for one year of Tyrod (yup, there'll be dead money after he leaves next year if he is on the roster in 2018) is insane.

 

But other than that, yeah, you have to suffer some pain to get a highly ranked guy.

 

 

2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Trading away multiple picks is not suffering. You only suffer when you finish 1-15, 3-13. It is completely possible to trade away player and picks and not finish 3-13. Trading away picks and players in no way automatically equals suffering. 

 

 

I think you're confusing suffering and future suffering, at least in the sense he was referring to. Sure trading away picks is suffering. It means you can't pick some  guys you'd absolutely love to get. In the same way that spending a lot of money when you have a very limited supply is suffering, so is trading away a bunch of picks. The pain of sacrifice.

 

But yeah, of course you're right that sometimes trading away those picks makes you happy in the long run, same as spending a lot of money might buy you something you end up really happy with.

 

This thread appears to have gotten a little wacky but his OP is correct. Yeah, you gotta suffer one way or the other if you want to get a highly ranked QB. And getting one of those guys is the best way to maximize your chances of getting a very good QB. It's not the only way, but it's certainly the best chance.

Edited February 25, 2018 by Thurman#1

[baskingridgebillsfan]

this year is a great example to prove the contrary .  If the Bills use their draft capitol to move up and get a qb they would have a cheap ab with cap space to fill a bunch of holes with solid players.  

If they buy a qb they have 5 premium draft picks.  it doesn't have to be one or the other