If You Ever Want a Top Rated QB Prospect...You Have to Suffer

[Happy]

Just now, ShadyBillsFan said:

They didn’t get their money’s worth imo.   

 

Sammy is good not great.  

 

Exactly my point.  The same thing could happen by taking a QB by trading up and spending a lot of draft capital.  I hear both sides of the argument (take the shot vs sit back); the down side to taking the shot is you can have a lot of regret, and pain, going forward.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

The title of the thread is Top Qb PROSPECT.

any prospect is pre-draft.

 

Dude, what you write in the post also matters.  You wrote " "only  two ways into getting the top QB Talent"

Now you're re-defining, and avoiding any responsibility for any confusion about your meaning.

 

Feeling a little frustrated engaging with you because you don't seem to wish to acknowledge a point, but I'll try one more time. 

"Looking at the top 16 point - scoring teams last year (since scoring points what the QB there for) we have QB acquired by:

6th round, FA (former 32nd pick), Trade (next year: 10th pick), 11th pick, 18th pick, Trade/FA/32nd pick, 3rd round, #4 pick, 4th round, #3 pick, 4th round (next year: Trade).

And of course, 5 QB drafted with the top-2 picks in the draft.

 

FA (former 32nd pick) is Drew Brees.  His pre-draft e v a l said:

#15 QB Drew Brees, Purdue, 6-0/213/4.83
Class/Draft Year: Sr/2001
Projected Round: 1-2
Rated number 2 out of 28 QB's   - ie pre-draft, he was considered a top QB talent. Brees set all sorts of NCAA records.  The only reason he fell was because he's short.

 

3rd round is Russ Wilson.  His pre-draft e v a l said:

"Wilson is a stellar passer who shows arm strength and accuracy when he is able to deliver the ball without a hitch. ... he has outstanding football intelligence as he picked up the Wisconsin offense in a short time and was the opening-day starter".  He was the top performer in 3 tests at the combine.  Again, he was recognized pre draft as a top talent, who fell because of his height.

 

Trade is Alex Smith, a former #1 overall pick- in other words a pre-draft recognized top talent who was not acquired via your false dichotomy.  Next year he'll be "the Man" for his 3rd team, which again will get him by trade.

 

11th pick is Ben Roethlisberger.  There was a lot of debate between him, Rivers, and Eli Manning pre-draft, with many expecting Ben to be taken #2 overall.  ie pre-draft, he was considered a top QB talent and fell because of concerns over the size of his school/level of competition

 

We can argue about Flacco, but again, many considered him pre-draft to be the #2 QB in the draft (Kiper and Mayock, others) ahead of Henne and Brohm, who fell to #18 pick because of a short track record (Senior year) and a small school with concerns about the level of competition.

 

Now we get to another trade by the Vikes for Sam Bradford, another #1 pick in the draft in otherwords a pre-draft recognized top talent

 

So at least 7 of the 11 QB who were not acquired by the team they're starting for with top picks, were recognized pre-draft as top talents.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Happy]

2 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

In hindsight it wasn't, but you are fully cognizant that the QB position is in a category all by itself at the NFL level. Gotta have one if you want long term viability. 

 

I agree that you need a franchise QB to have long term viability; we as Bills fans know that all too well after about 22 years.  I'm just not sold that betting the house is the way to go since it is such a huge gamble and we have a lot of other positions to strengthen.  I don't envy Beane and McDermott - tough spot to be in.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

26 minutes ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

Refuted by people who think Brady and Wilson and Brees were top prospects going into the draft.  All wrong.

 

Where Wilson and Brees are concerned, not wrong.  Look it up.  Brady is..... interesting. 

 

26 minutes ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

tell ou what champ.  Beside not to debate me.  We don’t know each other but something about you should know...

i dont start a battle unless it’s already won on my end.

thats a free one sport.

 

 

Now that speaks volumes.  In other words, don't bother trying to engage in any sort of debate....your mind is made up, "you've won" ahead of time.

Sounds like you're a legend in your own mind.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, Happy Gilmore said:

 

I agree that you need a franchise QB to have long term viability; we as Bills fans know that all too well after about 22 years.  I'm just not sold that betting the house is the way to go since it is such a huge gamble and we have a lot of other positions to strengthen.  I don't envy Beane and McDermott - tough spot to be in.

 

It is, but hey that's why they get paid the big bucks.  They have to get this right. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

8 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

Exactly my point.  The same thing could happen by taking a QB by trading up and spending a lot of draft capital.  I hear both sides of the argument (take the shot vs sit back); the down side to taking the shot is you can have a lot of regret, and pain, going forward.

Beyond a handful of players the draft is a crapshoot and always has been.  

 

The QB position is the toughest of them all especially with the way they breed non NFL QBs these days.  

 

The odds of getting the one good guy is not favorable. So to take a major risk is a gamble.  

Edited February 25, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Where Wilson and Brees are concerned, not wrong.  Look it up.  Brady is..... interesting. 

 

 

 

Now that speaks volumes.  In other words, don't bother trying to engage in any sort of debate....your mind is made up, "you've won" ahead of time.

Sounds like you're a legend in your own mind.

 

by arguing against my point...people are basically saying that you can Get the TOP PRE DRAFT QB PROSPECTS by being good the season before and then just sitting pat until there turn in the draft.

 

that is saying Minnesota cam just stay put and wait for Darnold or Allen to go to them.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

A top prospect is a guarantee of nothing!!!!!

 

[Happy]

Just now, ShadyBillsFan said:

Beyond a handful of players the draft is a crapshoot and always has been.  

 

The QB position is the toughest of them all especially with the way they breed non NFL QBs these days.  

 

Yes, that it is.  With pure pocket passers being in the minority coming out of college, and people talking about spending outrageous amounts of money on QBs like Kirk Cousins, you have to wonder at what point are NFL offenses going to change and reflect more of a college style offense?  Having a spread offense leaning QB running a WC offense just doesn't work, but that doesn't stop some OCs from trying (Dennison).  At some point NFL coaches and OCs are going to have to change the way they run an offense.

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

3 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

A top prospect is a guarantee of nothing!!!!!

 

 

True.  But if you want one there are only certain ways to do it.  Be bad or trade up.

 

the only way for sabres to get a top 2 Pick for Eichel was to be the worst team.

 

the only way for Indy to draft Luck or Panthers to draft Newton or Indy to draft Manning was to be the worst

 

the only way for falcons to draft Ryan or get giants to draft manning or chargers to draft rivers or rams to draft Goff was to SUFFER through a bad season.

 

the only way for Washington to draft RG3 or Eagles to draft Wentz or Bears Trubisky was to Trade

 

 

the goal is to draft the best prospect not the player who will be the best in the nfl because you can’t know the future but you can judge and rank the prosepcts in the present.

Edited February 25, 2018 by RalphWilson'sNewWar

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:

Just for argument's sake, what if Carson Wentz did not pan out?  How do you think Eagles fans would react...would the city of Philly still be standing?

If you're going to move up that much (which I am against), you better be completely positive of what you're getting, which is almost impossible if you subscribe to most QBs as being a crapshoot.

 

I think the City of Philly would be just fine...the way the Eagles were constructing themselves, if Wentz had needed more time, they had Bradford resigned there as a capable starting QB who led the Eagles to the #13 offense in 2015.  If he succumbed to his own fragility and Wentz wasn't ready, they were prepared to give Chase Daniels a shot (he's better than most people think, which isn't a high bar admittedly).  Meanwhile they were getting stronger at other positions and preparing to bolster up the 2015 roster with better defense (moved from #28 to #12).  I think they arguably might have had a somewhat better record if they'd started Bradford instead of Wentz in 2016.  The fans would have been soothed by the thought of improvement, and maybe a WC shot.

 

The Iggles are my poster child for a team that went "All In!" to land a QB and had it pay off.

[Happy]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think the City of Philly would be just fine...the way the Eagles were constructing themselves, if Wentz had needed more time, they had Bradford resigned there as a capable starting QB who led the Eagles to the #13 offense in 2015.  If he succumbed to his own fragility and Wentz wasn't ready, they were prepared to give Chase Daniels a shot (he's better than most people think, which isn't a high bar admittedly).  Meanwhile they were getting stronger at other positions and preparing to bolster up the 2015 roster with better defense (moved from #28 to #12).  I think they arguably might have had a somewhat better record if they'd started Bradford instead of Wentz in 2016.  The fans would have been soothed by the thought of improvement, and maybe a WC shot.

 

The Iggles are my poster child for a team that went "All In!" to land a QB and had it pay off.

 

Yes, it worked out for the Eagles.  The same can be said for the Patriots where it worked out with Brady.  Both cases, IMO, were pretty lucky.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

by arguing against my point...people are basically saying that you can Get the TOP PRE DRAFT QB PROSPECTS by being good the season before and then just sitting pat until there turn in the draft.

 

that is saying Minnesota cam just stay put and wait for Darnold or Allen to go to them.

 

People are arguing against a reasonable interpretation of the words you wrote in your post.

You might consider that. 

 

You wrote " i only see it two ways into getting the top QB Talent " Now apparently what you MEANT was "I only see two ways of drafting a QB who is rated as  top talent pre-draft", in which case your take is closer to accurate (I would argue still three - be bad, trade up, or have him fall for some reason). 

 

But that's not what you actually wrote.

 

What are you trying to accomplish here exactly?

Edited February 25, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

Yes, it worked out for the Eagles.  The same can be said for the Patriots where it worked out with Brady.  Both cases, IMO, were pretty lucky.

 

I can't deny that luck played a role, but can you deny that to some extent, by the actions they took, both teams "made their own luck"?

 

The Eagles had a functional QB, but they didn't like what they saw as his ceiling so they traded to upgrade.

Then they had a better pocket passing QB (Bradford) but they still wanted better, so when they liked Wentz they decided to go get him.  But they knew he wasn't a sure bet or certain to be ready, so they re-signed Bradford AND added a backup.  Belt, suspenders, and tailoring on their pants.

 

The Patriots had Bledsoe and 2 other QB on the roster.  They liked Brady, but they had a lot of holes.  But when he was still there in the 6th, they didn't say "can't do it-got too many QB!" they seized the day, drafted him, then kept 4 QB on the roster that year.

 

They were lucky in that the opportunities were there, but they also planned well to identify the opportunity and were willing to take a shot and seize it.

 

[MRW]

16 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

People are arguing against a reasonable interpretation of the words you wrote in your post.

You might consider that. 

 

You wrote " i only see it two ways into getting the top QB Talent " Now apparently what you MEANT was "I only see two ways of drafting a QB who is rated as  top talent pre-draft", in which case your take is closer to accurate (I would argue still three - be bad, trade up, or have him fall for some reason). 

 

But that's not what you actually wrote.

 

What are you trying to accomplish here exactly?

 

Yes, it seems like "top QB prospect" is defined as "QB who is expected to be picked high in the draft".  In which case, the argument is mostly correct, but pointless.

[Happy]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I can't deny that luck played a role, but can you deny that to some extent, by the actions they took, both teams "made their own luck"?

 

The Eagles had a functional QB, but they didn't like what they saw as his ceiling so they traded to upgrade.

Then they had a better pocket passing QB (Bradford) but they still wanted better, so when they liked Wentz they decided to go get him.  But they knew he wasn't a sure bet or certain to be ready, so they re-signed Bradford AND added a backup.  Belt, suspenders, and tailoring on their pants.

 

The Patriots had Bledsoe and 2 other QB on the roster.  They liked Brady, but they had a lot of holes.  But when he was still there in the 6th, they didn't say "can't do it-got too many QB!" they seized the day, drafted him, then kept 4 QB on the roster that year.

 

They were lucky in that the opportunities were there, but they also planned well to identify the opportunity and were willing to take a shot and seize it.

 

 

I'll agree that the Eagles made their own luck, as you put it.  They liked what they saw in Wentz and went all in to get him...and it worked out.

The Patriots with Brady, that was lightening in a bottle.  They may have thought there was enough value to take a flyer on Brady, but there was no way they planned on a 6th round draft pick to become one of the greatest in his era.

Either way, I hope Beane, McD and company see something in one of the QBs this year to take a shot with expectations being better than average he pans out.  And ideally they won't have to spend a lot of draft capital to do so.

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

36 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

People are arguing against a reasonable interpretation of the words you wrote in your post.

You might consider that. 

 

You wrote " i only see it two ways into getting the top QB Talent " Now apparently what you MEANT was "I only see two ways of drafting a QB who is rated as  top talent pre-draft", in which case your take is closer to accurate (I would argue still three - be bad, trade up, or have him fall for some reason). 

 

But that's not what you actually wrote.

 

What are you trying to accomplish here exactly?

 

The post  was in response to radio call who said we needed to wait until next season to draft a quarterback and my pointing out that you’ll be in the same situation next season unless you’re willing to again either be a bad team or trade up.

 

  But apparently reading comprehension is an issue around here and perhaps I picked the wrong spot to post these things.

 

  The title of the post leads the thought and the body of the text follows it if you can’t put together that the title is what I’m talking about when you need it spelled out A second time I can’t help that.  I can edit it, But I think it’s probably better you just never read what I write again and never respond anything about again that’s probably the best and save me the headache of having to deal with this type of responses that don’t understand itBut I think it’s probably better you just never read what I write again and never respond anything about again that’s probably the best and save me the headache of having to deal with this type of responses that don’t understand it

21 minutes ago, MRW said:

 

Yes, it seems like "top QB prospect" is defined as "QB who is expected to be picked high in the draft".  In which case, the argument is mostly correct, but pointless.

 

Not pointless at all.  Probably the basis for the most important decision the sabres ever made and the type of decision teams in the nfl need to make to secure the top picks to land the best talent.

[row_33]

Give a class assignment to 10 year olds and have them with perfect hindsight and google tell you the best way to get a franchise QB

 

doing it in real time and without hindsight or taking back your moves is all that matters

 

 

[xRUSHx]

I have said this all along, if you want to take two steps forward you will have to take a step back first. Suffer I don't think so, not as good for one season to make the next season better yes IMO.

[Wily Dog]

26 minutes ago, row_33 said:

Give a class assignment to 10 year olds and have them with perfect hindsight and google tell you the best way to get a franchise QB

 

doing it in real time and without hindsight or taking back your moves is all that matters

 

 

I think McD/Beane will sift the QB market and choose one. We  should hope they choose right but ,  we have to realize that picking a QB is not an exact science and we may have to go to the well more than once. The trouble with the Bill's has been not going to the well often enough.