Reed83HOF Posted March 5, 2018 Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, grb said: OK, let's look at the last five instances where this situation occurred : Jacksonville : Taylor went out with a concussion : Inconclusive Tampa Bay : Late game heroics. A three-play drive including a 44yd pass sets up the win Cincinnati : Taylor played poorly. Carolina : Taylor overcame a bogus OPI call to set-up what would have had a final second TD pass - but for a young receiver's inexperience Miami (2016) : Taylor comes back from 14pts down three times in the game, and put the Bills ahead with eighty seconds left, by a TD pass on 4th and goal. Seems to me the record is 3-1 looking strictly at Taylor's play in end of fourth quarter situations over that span. Of course you can blame him for Jones having zero ball awareness or the comedy of errors resulting in the '16 Miami loss. It's probably Taylor's fault because he didn't "elevate" his teammates, right? But Watkins would have caught that Carolina ball ten of ten times, and the NFL win probability is over 90% with a lead under 90 seconds left. Advanced NFL Stats actually has a chart on this. More stats that matter, huh? https://priceonomics.com/modeling-the-probability-of-winning-an-nfl-game/ This is the same slicing and dicing that fans do to say ohe we were 6-10; we should have been 10-6 if we made this FG, this guy caught this pass etc... It's bull **** We are 24-24 with no passing offense under TT. How do you stop the Bills - make TT a QB... 1
BuffaloHokie13 Posted March 5, 2018 Posted March 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said: This is the same slicing and dicing that fans do to say ohe we were 6-10; we should have been 10-6 if we made this FG, this guy caught this pass etc... It's bull **** We are 24-24 with no passing offense under TT. How do you stop the Bills - make TT a QB... Actually we are 23-20, but that's okay. 1
Reed83HOF Posted March 5, 2018 Posted March 5, 2018 22 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: Actually we are 23-20, but that's okay. So what's the record when Sammy is out, when Dareus is suspended etc? The Bills in that time frame are 24-24, granted 23-20 is far from good as well...
John from Riverside Posted March 5, 2018 Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said: So what's the record when Sammy is out, when Dareus is suspended etc? The Bills in that time frame are 24-24, granted 23-20 is far from good as well... It is a winning record
BuffaloHokie13 Posted March 5, 2018 Posted March 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said: So what's the record when Sammy is out, when Dareus is suspended etc? The Bills in that time frame are 24-24, granted 23-20 is far from good as well... You didn't say it was the Bills' record though. You said it was the Bills' record under TT, which is patently false. The Bills are 23-20 under TT, 0-3 under EJ, and 1-1 under Peterman since 2015. 44 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said: We are 24-24 with no passing offense under TT. For reference. 1
Reed83HOF Posted March 5, 2018 Posted March 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, John from Riverside said: It is a winning record It is still putrid.... 6 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: You didn't say it was the Bills' record though. You said it was the Bills' record under TT, which is patently false. The Bills are 23-20 under TT, 0-3 under EJ, and 1-1 under Peterman since 2015. For reference. Our record does not change when players are injured. You are what your record says you are and the Bills are 24-24 under TT and they have no passing offense...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted March 5, 2018 Posted March 5, 2018 http://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/31241/bills-can-improve-from-tyrod-taylor-in-late-game-situations Let me paraphrase. Late Game Results is why the Bills should move on. his struggles in leading the team from behind when he needs to push the ball downfield. Taylor is generally conservative and takes care of the ball, ranking second behind Tom Brady since 2015 in interception rate per pass attempt (1.3 percent). But when Taylor has needed to take chances in order to win a game, he has come up short. "In this game, you have plays where it's third-and-9 and you can't run for it, and you got to be able to make plays from the pocket," he told the Bills' official radio program. "We know how close these games are. You look at the Super Bowl. there is a vote of confidence. Or not
HappyDays Posted March 5, 2018 Posted March 5, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Reed83HOF said: Our record does not change when players are injured Yes it does. It goes from just over 50% to close to 0%. I don't know why some people have to stretch facts to pretend Tyrod is worse than he is. He's a pretty average starting NFL QB from 2015-2017. Everyone knows we can do better. Edited March 5, 2018 by HappyDays 1
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted March 5, 2018 Posted March 5, 2018 (edited) 16 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said: http://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/31241/bills-can-improve-from-tyrod-taylor-in-late-game-situations Let me paraphrase. Late Game Results is why the Bills should move on. ...forget all of the easily manipulated stats for a nanosecond and look at situational football......down by 7 in the 4th with 2:28 on the clock.....are you confident TT could execute the two minute drill, marching this club down the field to tie this bad boy up?......as a (very) old fart, I STILL believe in a balanced offense with BOTH the running game AND the passing game being consistently viable threats when called upon....some weeks it may be 60/40 and other weeks it may be 40/60.....depends on the opponent and what film study shows they may give me....then comes formulation of the game plan...so, is Bflo's passing game a consistently viable threat when called upon or even a consideration in the game planning process with TT under center?......what if (HATE IT) Bflo was in the SB versus Eagles, and the same shoot out entailed with Foles?.....could or would you think TT could go tit for tat to keep Bflo in that type of game?.....just a few types of situational football I'm trying to identify and figure out confidence/comfort level....I'll hang up and wait for your reply.... Edited March 5, 2018 by OldTimeAFLGuy 1
Reed83HOF Posted March 5, 2018 Posted March 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, HappyDays said: Yes it does. It goes from just over 50% to close to 0%. I don't know why some people have to stretch facts to pretend Tyrod is worse than he is. He's a pretty average starting NFL QB from 2015-2017. Everyone knows we can do better. It most certainly does not. We have a record based on 16 games in a regular season 16+16+16=48 = 24 wins & 24 losses = Average. What is our record without Dareus? Without Sammy? You can't just forget about the other guys when someone is out and pretend that the wins do or don't count.... Now if you want to talk about the quality of our starting QB vs our backups, that is a different story. TT is average, the rest are below average = not news has been this way well for a long ass time... 1
BringBackOrton Posted March 5, 2018 Posted March 5, 2018 2 hours ago, John from Riverside said: It is a winning record Brock Osweiler has a winning record.
Reed83HOF Posted March 5, 2018 Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, jmc12290 said: Brock Osweiler has a winning record.
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted March 5, 2018 Posted March 5, 2018 43 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said: ...forget all of the easily manipulated stats for a nanosecond and look at situational football......down by 7 in the 4th with 2:28 on the clock.....are you confident TT could execute the two minute drill, marching this club down the field to tie this bad boy up?......as a (very) old fart, I STILL believe in a balanced offense with BOTH the running game AND the passing game being consistently viable threats when called upon....some weeks it may be 60/40 and other weeks it may be 40/60.....depends on the opponent and what film study shows they may give me....then comes formulation of the game plan...so, is Bflo's passing game a consistently viable threat when called upon or even a consideration in the game planning process with TT under center?......what if (HATE IT) Bflo was in the SB versus Eagles, and the same shoot out entailed with Foles?.....could or would you think TT could go tit for tat to keep Bflo in that type of game?.....just a few types of situational football I'm trying to identify and figure out confidence/comfort level....I'll hang up and wait for your reply.... One word. Low. I wish it were different but it is not.
transplantbillsfan Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 http://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/31241/bills-can-improve-from-tyrod-taylor-in-late-game-situations The game plan: The home run for the Bills would be to snag one of the draft's top quarterbacks by executing a trade at a reasonable asking price. The problem is that the Bills will not know until April whether that can happen, so they must make decisions in the coming days about Taylor and free-agent quarterbacks independent of their draft plans. Keeping Taylor as insurance or as the starter next season is one option, but trading him and acquiring a quarterback at a comparable or lower price would also make sense. The unlikely scenario is the Bills splurging on a top free agent such as Kirk Cousins or Case Keenum. It would also be surprising if the Bills let Taylor go and rode into 2018 with Peterman as their starting quarterback; he simply is not ready. Right... so basically... trade Taylor (potentially as part of a package) if we're able to trade up in the draft for one of the best guys (please please please let it be Mayfield) or we'll stay put and draft the 4th or 5th best guy (Jackson... ?) while keeping Taylor for one more year as an insurance bridge guy... yeah, sounds good
JPP Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 1 hour ago, jmc12290 said: Brock Osweiler has a winning record. please dont advocate for brock osweiler......thats just downright silly
Rocky Landing Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said: http://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/31241/bills-can-improve-from-tyrod-taylor-in-late-game-situations The game plan: The home run for the Bills would be to snag one of the draft's top quarterbacks by executing a trade at a reasonable asking price. The problem is that the Bills will not know until April whether that can happen, so they must make decisions in the coming days about Taylor and free-agent quarterbacks independent of their draft plans. Keeping Taylor as insurance or as the starter next season is one option, but trading him and acquiring a quarterback at a comparable or lower price would also make sense. The unlikely scenario is the Bills splurging on a top free agent such as Kirk Cousins or Case Keenum. It would also be surprising if the Bills let Taylor go and rode into 2018 with Peterman as their starting quarterback; he simply is not ready. Right... so basically... trade Taylor (potentially as part of a package) if we're able to trade up in the draft for one of the best guys (please please please let it be Mayfield) or we'll stay put and draft the 4th or 5th best guy (Jackson... ?) while keeping Taylor for one more year as an insurance bridge guy... yeah, sounds good Are you making the assumption that Mayfield will be NFL ready day one?
YattaOkasan Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 8 hours ago, Luxy312 said: Net turnovers is the single largest Corollary to winning and losing games in the NFL. There's are of course always exceptions. Based on every NFL game played in the last 40 years, if a team is +1, they win the game 90% of the time. If they're +2, that climbs to about 95%. +3 gets you to almost 99%. The single biggest problem pointed out by many with Taylor is that he's just not capable of winning games. He does little to capitalize when the defense gives him an opportunity to do so. I'm sure you could pull these metrics for many more starters, but if we simply look at the golden standard that is Tom Brady, we can quickly draw the conclusion. In 8 games last season, the Patriots were in the positive in turnover ratio. In those games, they were +10 in turnovers and +60 in total points scored. 6 points per turnover is not bad. The Bills on the other hand in 10 games were +20 in turnovers for only +44 in points scored. 2.2 points per turnover. Everyone saying that Tyrod doesn't lose games for this team is right, but he sure doesn't win them either. The Bills were one score winners in six games last year where they had a positive turnover ratio. That's pretty pathetic. Very much appreciate this. Probably the best comment I’ve gotten out of the tire fires that are TT threads. I think this is a very interesting point and could explain why we don’t really ever blow anyone out despite winning the TO battle. Maybe I’ll go to that PFR tool and look for game stats about points off turnovers and try to model winning percentage with turnovers. Thank you again
transplantbillsfan Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 2 hours ago, Rocky Landing said: Are you making the assumption that Mayfield will be NFL ready day one? Yes. Next to Rosen... maybe even moreso... I think Mayfield could start week #1.
Rocky Landing Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 24 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Yes. Next to Rosen... maybe even moreso... I think Mayfield could start week #1. I am not of that mind. Even if our rookie QB is ready to start week one, I think we would be foolish not to have a vet QB on the roster.
transplantbillsfan Posted March 6, 2018 Posted March 6, 2018 33 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said: I am not of that mind. Even if our rookie QB is ready to start week one, I think we would be foolish not to have a vet QB on the roster. I think you're misunderstanding me... we would absolutely need a vet on the roster, but it's going to be one of those "step down backup QB only" type guys. 1
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