JaCrispy Posted February 27, 2018 Posted February 27, 2018 (edited) These stats are the nail in Tyrod’s coffin for me...if he is the starter next year, it’s a wasted season imo. Edited February 27, 2018 by JaCrispy 1
BuffaloHokie13 Posted February 27, 2018 Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, JaCrispy said: These stats are the nail in Tyrod’s coffin for me...if he is the starter next year, odds are we are not going far imo. So like 2nd round of the playoffs then?
Reed83HOF Posted February 27, 2018 Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, JaCrispy said: These stats are the nail in Tyrod’s coffin for me...if he is the starter next year, odds are we are not going far imo. This is why stats overall have to be taken in context, the PPG, offense ranking, TD/INT ratio (overall) are good, but these honestly are the stats that matter IMO. These are the reasons I want him gone... 1
JaCrispy Posted February 27, 2018 Posted February 27, 2018 (edited) 9 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: So like 2nd round of the playoffs then? Not if we can’t produce more than 3 points or 150 yards passing...lol... so comical how people defend this Edited February 27, 2018 by JaCrispy
BuffaloHokie13 Posted February 27, 2018 Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, JaCrispy said: Not if we can’t produce more than 3 points or 150 yards passing...lol... so comical how people defend these stats What stat did I defend, exactly? Our team wins more than it loses when he plays QB. I don't expect that to change after another offseason with this FO, even if he remains the starter. 2
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted February 27, 2018 Posted February 27, 2018 22 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said: Here is the rest of Rodhack's tweet Mike RodakVerified account @mikerodak 4m4 minutes ago More Mike Rodak Retweeted Mike Rodak Overall, here are Taylor’s stats since 2015 when trailing by 8 or fewer points in 4th quarters: Win%: .167 (T-42nd, 3-15) Comp%: 53.5 (33rd) Y/A: 6.41 (28th) TD/INT: 0.6 (T-33rd) PSRT: 58.1 (35th) TD/A: 4.2% (23rd) INT/A: 7.0% (36th) FD/A: 26.8% (31st) SACK%: 9.8 (35th) and some want him under center going forward. 5 minutes ago, JaCrispy said: Not if we can’t produce more than 3 points or 150 yards passing...lol... so comical how people defend this pathetic. it was great breaking the drought but it was a shame he and the offense could not score more then 3 points. but hey hey, it wasn't his fault.
Rocky Landing Posted February 27, 2018 Posted February 27, 2018 1 hour ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said: and some want him under center going forward. pathetic. it was great breaking the drought but it was a shame he and the offense could not score more then 3 points. but hey hey, it wasn't his fault. Is there anyone who wants Taylor as their first choice? It strikes me that the Tyrod Taylor debate is essentially between those who utterly despise him, and inflate their opinions with cherry-picked data, meaningless invective, outright lunacy, and (as I believe is your case) straw-man arguments versus those who view him as somewhere around average, with clear downsides, and upsides, but not the worst option we have. At this point, I don't even think Transplantbillsfan has TT as his first choice. 2
GunnerBill Posted February 28, 2018 Posted February 28, 2018 20 hours ago, Rocky Landing said: Is there anyone who wants Taylor as their first choice? It strikes me that the Tyrod Taylor debate is essentially between those who utterly despise him, and inflate their opinions with cherry-picked data, meaningless invective, outright lunacy, and (as I believe is your case) straw-man arguments versus those who view him as somewhere around average, with clear downsides, and upsides, but not the worst option we have. At this point, I don't even think Transplantbillsfan has TT as his first choice. Except the pro Tyrod arguments use just as many out of context stats and straw man arguments. 3
Stank_Nasty Posted February 28, 2018 Posted February 28, 2018 20 hours ago, Rocky Landing said: Is there anyone who wants Taylor as their first choice? It strikes me that the Tyrod Taylor debate is essentially between those who utterly despise him, and inflate their opinions with cherry-picked data, meaningless invective, outright lunacy, and (as I believe is your case) straw-man arguments versus those who view him as somewhere around average, with clear downsides, and upsides, but not the worst option we have. At this point, I don't even think Transplantbillsfan has TT as his first choice. bingo
Royale with Cheese Posted February 28, 2018 Posted February 28, 2018 20 hours ago, Rocky Landing said: Is there anyone who wants Taylor as their first choice? It strikes me that the Tyrod Taylor debate is essentially between those who utterly despise him, and inflate their opinions with cherry-picked data, meaningless invective, outright lunacy, and (as I believe is your case) straw-man arguments versus those who view him as somewhere around average, with clear downsides, and upsides, but not the worst option we have. At this point, I don't even think Transplantbillsfan has TT as his first choice. The arguments are the same on both sides with the cherry picking, straw man etc.... 1
Saxum Posted March 1, 2018 Posted March 1, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 11:10 AM, Stank_Nasty said: what the hell does what I said have to do with tyrod or how is it an excuse? get a grip man. you've lost it. can somebody seriously be this ignorant? its honestly impressive! xRUSHx sounds like he joined Gino in flat earth society. 1
Kirby Jackson Posted March 1, 2018 Posted March 1, 2018 I suck at searching but I have a bet with someone that Tyrod will make at least $10M this year. The loser can never post here again (at least I think). If they pick up the option he is guaranteed that whether with the Bills or elsewhere. We are about to lose a poster (but I don’t remember whom). Btw @C.Biscuit97 PM me your address because I owe you beer from the EJ bet. My favorite local IPA is out now (Jucifer). It is a FANTASTIC beer.
transplantbillsfan Posted March 1, 2018 Posted March 1, 2018 (edited) On 2/27/2018 at 7:24 AM, DaBillsFanSince1973 said: and some want him under center going forward. Who? I want Andrew Luck, Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Cousins, maybe Jackson... then Taylor. That's eliminating all those out-of-the-box guys like Drew Brees, who might be a UFA, but c'mon... anyone really think he's not resigning with New Orleans? Obviously I take Brees in a heartbeat. So honest question, who has Taylor as choice # 1 or even choice # 2? I think there's a delusion on this board that there are people who want the Bills to go this offseason without acquiring a long-term upgrade at QB over Taylor and I don't think I've seen any single poster say that. Have you? Edited March 1, 2018 by transplantbillsfan 1
YattaOkasan Posted March 1, 2018 Posted March 1, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 12:09 PM, Reed83HOF said: This is why stats overall have to be taken in context, the PPG, offense ranking, TD/INT ratio (overall) are good, but these honestly are the stats that matter IMO. These are the reasons I want him gone... If these stats matter please show the correlation to winning. I don’t think there would be good correlation to overall winning percentage. The reason folks point to TTs int% is because IIRC turnover margin is directly correlated with winning.
Reed83HOF Posted March 1, 2018 Posted March 1, 2018 43 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said: If these stats matter please show the correlation to winning. I don’t think there would be good correlation to overall winning percentage. The reason folks point to TTs int% is because IIRC turnover margin is directly correlated with winning. Here are the stats that matter and are related to winning the game (well in TTs case, not winning the game) Mike RodakVerified account @mikerodak 4m4 minutes ago More Mike Rodak Retweeted Mike Rodak Overall, here are Taylor’s stats since 2015 when trailing by 8 or fewer points in 4th quarters: Win%: .167 (T-42nd, 3-15) Comp%: 53.5 (33rd) Y/A: 6.41 (28th) TD/INT: 0.6 (T-33rd) PSRT: 58.1 (35th) TD/A: 4.2% (23rd) INT/A: 7.0% (36th) FD/A: 26.8% (31st) SACK%: 9.8 (35th)
YattaOkasan Posted March 1, 2018 Posted March 1, 2018 2 hours ago, Reed83HOF said: Here are the stats that matter and are related to winning the game (well in TTs case, not winning the game) Mike RodakVerified account @mikerodak 4m4 minutes ago More Mike Rodak Retweeted Mike Rodak Overall, here are Taylor’s stats since 2015 when trailing by 8 or fewer points in 4th quarters: Win%: .167 (T-42nd, 3-15) Comp%: 53.5 (33rd) Y/A: 6.41 (28th) TD/INT: 0.6 (T-33rd) PSRT: 58.1 (35th) TD/A: 4.2% (23rd) INT/A: 7.0% (36th) FD/A: 26.8% (31st) SACK%: 9.8 (35th) Yeah I saw those stats and recreated the data set even (in the thread you started IIRC). I didn’t see the correlation to overall winning %, which is why I asked for the analysis. Cause isn’t overall winning % what we’re looking to do? I have seen turnover margin correlated to winning. If necessary I can pull the TO margin data. I don’t disagree that TT sucks in these situations. But it really speaks to how well he performs the “game manager” role that he can be so terrible during these situations and still have a winning record with 2 years of poor defense. Also I believe these stats indicate that when the game is on the line he will take chances (both TD% and INT% are above his average), which is something I have heard cast against him before. They say they’re not gonna cut him and he’s the best bridge QB we have on the team. That sorta leaves trade him, start him, or start then bench him as the only options.
Luxy312 Posted March 5, 2018 Posted March 5, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 7:13 PM, YattaOkasan said: If these stats matter please show the correlation to winning. I don’t think there would be good correlation to overall winning percentage. The reason folks point to TTs int% is because IIRC turnover margin is directly correlated with winning. Net turnovers is the single largest Corollary to winning and losing games in the NFL. There's are of course always exceptions. Based on every NFL game played in the last 40 years, if a team is +1, they win the game 90% of the time. If they're +2, that climbs to about 95%. +3 gets you to almost 99%. The single biggest problem pointed out by many with Taylor is that he's just not capable of winning games. He does little to capitalize when the defense gives him an opportunity to do so. I'm sure you could pull these metrics for many more starters, but if we simply look at the golden standard that is Tom Brady, we can quickly draw the conclusion. In 8 games last season, the Patriots were in the positive in turnover ratio. In those games, they were +10 in turnovers and +60 in total points scored. 6 points per turnover is not bad. The Bills on the other hand in 10 games were +20 in turnovers for only +44 in points scored. 2.2 points per turnover. Everyone saying that Tyrod doesn't lose games for this team is right, but he sure doesn't win them either. The Bills were one score winners in six games last year where they had a positive turnover ratio. That's pretty pathetic. 2
Lothar Posted March 5, 2018 Posted March 5, 2018 The correlation to winning and turnovers is actually around 78%. http://www.footballperspective.com/winning-the-turnover-battle/ 16 minutes ago, Luxy312 said: Net turnovers is the single largest Corollary to winning and losing games in the NFL. There's are of course always exceptions. Based on every NFL game played in the last 40 years, if a team is +1, they win the game 90% of the time. If they're +2, that climbs to about 95%. +3 gets you to almost 99%.
grb Posted March 5, 2018 Posted March 5, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 8:57 PM, Reed83HOF said: Here are the stats that matter and are related to winning the game (well in TTs case, not winning the game) Mike RodakVerified account @mikerodak 4m4 minutes ago More Mike Rodak Retweeted Mike Rodak Overall, here are Taylor’s stats since 2015 when trailing by 8 or fewer points in 4th quarters: Win%: .167 (T-42nd, 3-15) Comp%: 53.5 (33rd) Y/A: 6.41 (28th) TD/INT: 0.6 (T-33rd) PSRT: 58.1 (35th) TD/A: 4.2% (23rd) INT/A: 7.0% (36th) FD/A: 26.8% (31st) SACK%: 9.8 (35th) OK, let's look at the last five instances where this situation occurred : Jacksonville : Taylor went out with a concussion : Inconclusive Tampa Bay : Late game heroics. A three-play drive including a 44yd pass sets up the win Cincinnati : Taylor played poorly. Carolina : Taylor overcame a bogus OPI call to set-up what would have had a final second TD pass - but for a young receiver's inexperience Miami (2016) : Taylor comes back from 14pts down three times in the game, and put the Bills ahead with eighty seconds left, by a TD pass on 4th and goal. Seems to me the record is 3-1 looking strictly at Taylor's play in end of fourth quarter situations over that span. Of course you can blame him for Jones having zero ball awareness or the comedy of errors resulting in the '16 Miami loss. It's probably Taylor's fault because he didn't "elevate" his teammates, right? But Watkins would have caught that Carolina ball ten of ten times, and the NFL win probability is over 90% with a lead under 90 seconds left. Advanced NFL Stats actually has a chart on this. More stats that matter, huh? https://priceonomics.com/modeling-the-probability-of-winning-an-nfl-game/ 2
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