GunnerBill Posted February 21, 2018 Posted February 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: Maybe so. We’ll never know the full extent but either way I feel it’s fair to give credit/criticism to the men that held the title of GM during the drafts. Whether they made the selections themselves or not But as Kirby said... we do know "either way." Just in the interests of balance I'd be interested in seeing what the total hit rate is if you lump all the Levy and Brandon era picks in 1 and work out the success percentage. And then I will call that the Modrak score.
BuffaloRush Posted February 21, 2018 Author Posted February 21, 2018 Just now, GunnerBill said: But as Kirby said... we do know "either way." Just in the interests of balance I'd be interested in seeing what the total hit rate is if you lump all the Levy and Brandon era picks in 1 and work out the success percentage. And then I will call that the Modrak score. Feel free to. I won’t do it because I feel the GMs should stand by their selections. Marv was 31% and Russ was 20%.... Your Modrak number is not going to be very good. We’ll see how they stack up against some of the better (Polian, Butler) and worse (Nix, Whaley) GMs. I think the results might surprise you
K-9 Posted February 21, 2018 Posted February 21, 2018 Well, since Russ Brandon never made a draft pick decision in his life, this is kind of a moot point.
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted February 21, 2018 Posted February 21, 2018 12 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: Fans don’t want to accept or acknowledge it but Ralph really hurt the Bills following Donahoe’s firing. So many poor decisions ...but in his defense, the OBD organization was built on trust as Ralph lived in Michigan.....sadly he tried to atone for the Polian debacle that Littmann won out on and went to the other extreme by naming Donohole "President", the FIRST in club history.....you know the rest.....OBD Administration was the media's laughing stock so he went with the "trust element" first and foremost with unqualifieds or those beyond their years....just a sad era in this club's history.........
Rico Posted February 21, 2018 Posted February 21, 2018 33 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: Maybe so. We’ll never know the full extent but either way I feel it’s fair to give credit/criticism to the men that held the title of GM during the drafts. Whether they made the selections themselves or not No matter what, you do have to go to the bottom line regardless of who was doing the drafting. Marv’s HOF image was forever tarnished to at least some degree, and Russ Brandon remains the poster child for Buffalo Bills Failure.
JohnC Posted February 21, 2018 Posted February 21, 2018 Brandon has received a lot of unwarranted criticism. He was never a functioning GM, and didn't pretend to be. When Marv left he did his best to hold things together. Responsibilities that he wasn't equipped for were thrust upon by the owner. He was a good soldier and did the best that he could to keep the operation functioning. Russ Brandon is one of the better sports manager in the business. He expanded the Bills market and made it more viable. He understandably got skewered on the Toronto episode but from a business perspective it made a lot of sense. He was tapping into the Canadian market and increasing the regionalization of the franchise. There are some people who criticize Brandon for influencing the hiring of Rex. That is a fair criticism while most of the blame should go directly to the owners. The Pegulas have struggled with their products in the sports scene. But they are astute and forward thinking business people. They were smart enough to recognize Brandon's business and marketing acumen to put him in charge of the business side of their sports operation that includes the Bills and Sabres.
GunnerBill Posted February 21, 2018 Posted February 21, 2018 Modrak's overall according to BuffaloRush's view of who is a hit would be 26%. 46 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: Feel free to. I won’t do it because I feel the GMs should stand by their selections. So do I.... but they were not their selections. That is, in fact, the point. 1
BuffaloRush Posted February 21, 2018 Author Posted February 21, 2018 30 minutes ago, Rico said: No matter what, you do have to go to the bottom line regardless of who was doing the drafting. Marv’s HOF image was forever tarnished to at least some degree, and Russ Brandon remains the poster child for Buffalo Bills Failure. Yea I agree 100%. Plus the counter view is all based on speculation. People say say how bad Marv and Russ were as GM but then say “well they didn’t actually make the draft picks.” I guess that doesnt make them so bad then????? 16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Modrak's overall according to BuffaloRush's view of who is a hit would be 26%. So do I.... but they were not their selections. That is, in fact, the point. All speculation though. You have zero proof
Jay_Fixit Posted February 21, 2018 Posted February 21, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, BuffaloRush said: It's baaack. We will continue to take a look at the past General Managers in Buffalo and who was the most successful with the draft based on hits and misses. Today it's time to see how The Bills favorite prodigal son Russ "This Brand Has Been Tarnished" Brandon did. If you recall Brandon was named "General Manager" after former GM Marv Levy quietly stepped aside. It is believed that while Brandon was involved in many football decision, the majority of GM duties (including the draft) fell to the competent trio of Tom Modrak (Draft), John Guy (Pro) and Richard "Dick" Jauron (A Bit of Everything). Here's the criteria I shared for defining a "hit" and a "miss" While this is very subjective, I am defining a "hit" as any player that reasonably performed at or above his draft status. As an example, a player like Paul Pozlusny becoming a solid starting LB as a 2nd round pick. A "miss" is the opposite - a player who performed under or well under their draft status. If you draft a player in the first round and they are a marginal starter, I am defining that as a miss. Like many of my polls, I think this will be very debated. Let's see how old Russ did in his only draft as GM: Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ 2008 1 Leodis McKelvin 11 DB 2016 0 0 4 29 111 15 Troy 2008 2 James Hardy 41 WR 2009 0 0 0 1 16 10 96 2 Indiana 2008 3 Chris Ellis 72 DE 2010 0 0 0 2 15 1.0 Virginia Tech 2008 4 Reggie Corner 114 DB 2011 0 0 0 8 55 2 1.0 Akron 2008 4 Derek Fine 132 TE 2009 0 0 0 2 18 19 158 1 Kansas 2008 5 Alvin Bowen 147 LB 2010 0 0 0 0 2 Iowa St. 2008 6 Xavier Omon 179 RB 2009 0 0 0 0 7 11 27 0 0 0 0 NW Missouri St. 2008 7 Demetress Bell 219 T 2012 0 0 2 15 40 NW State (LA) 2008 7 Steve Johnson 224 WR 2015 0 0 5 33 99 2 16 0 381 4764 34 Kentucky 2008 7 Kennard Cox 251 DB 2014 0 0 0 2 29 0.5 Pittsburgh 2008 Draft = 2 Hits/8 Misses = Success Rate of 20% This was an unsuccessful draft in oh...so many ways. MISSES Yes Leodis McKelvin was a "miss." You can say that was an an "average NFL starter," but you NOT draft an "average NFL starter" with the 11th pick in the first round. I am sorry but Leodis never lived up to his draft status this was a miss. Speaking of miss - one of the most spectacular 2nd round busts in Bills history was James Hardy. This was an ill-advised pick based on a player's physical size which never materialized. Easily one of the worst 2nd draft picks since Bucky Brooks. The rest of the guy are nobodies...just a terrible brutal draft. Just brutal. HITS Old Russ did the 7th round right. First, I will give Demetrius Bell a very very very marginal thumbs up. He essentially was a 3 year starter for the Bills as a 7th round pick. I will call him a slightly "average NFL starter" which is good for a 7th round pick (not the 11th pick in the 1st round). Then there is Stevie Johnson. Say what you will about the competence of this trio, but Russ Brandon made arguably one of the greatest draft picks in Bills history. So overall yes, Russ was a very bad GM...BUT he did a great job of tarnishing the brand. Still his 20% success rate is only slightly worse that Marv Levy. For those keeping score: Success Rate as GM: Marv Levy: 31% Russ Brandon: 20% Nah dude, Levy was 3/16. 19% Brandon was awful, Levy was abysmal. Edited February 21, 2018 by Jay_Fixit
GunnerBill Posted February 21, 2018 Posted February 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: People say say how bad Marv and Russ were as GM but then say “well they didn’t actually make the draft picks.” I guess that doesnt make them so bad then????? All speculation though. You have zero proof Kirby is better connected that most on this board. All the proof I need. And the whole thing then was a shambles. You mistake me pointing out what actually happened for me trying to defend the Bills in some way or defend Brandon or Levy. I don't. The Bills had a period between Donahue and Nix with a complete disaster of a front office set up. It wasn't just that we had bad GMs... that would be one thing... it was that we had a structure so utterly bonkers and bizarre it was unique im the NFL then or at any time since. People can say a lot about Buddy Nix as a GM and his draft record isn't great either but at least with Buddy we are just talking about bad evaluations and bad picks. The Nix era could have succeeded if he was just better at his job. The Modrak era never had a chance. It was doomed from the start. 1 1
Kirby Jackson Posted February 21, 2018 Posted February 21, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said: That would not surprise me. But I’m saying all that we know FOR SURE...FOR SURE...is that Marv and Russ were the GMs during this time period. Fans on TBD and the internet speculate. It’s what makes Pro sports fun as a fan. But some of the speculation is inaccurate. We don’t know for sure what went down Chalk one up for the GOOD GUYS: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d805a31ac/article/levy-to-resign-as-bills-gm Levy's role as GM was relatively undefined, although he provided input on the team's draft and personnel decisions, consulted with Jauron and stayed in close contact with Wilson, who lives in suburban Detroit. I keep saying this isn’t speculation. My knowledge on the subject is 1st hand. This is coming from the people in the meetings, war room, etc... This is coming from high ranking people within football ops. This isn’t reading the tea leaves. I don’t really care that you don’t believe me but it kind of bothers me that you are questioning my credibility but if Jerry Sullivan wrote it you would accept. The reality is my relationships in that building (especially then) were way beyond his sources. 1
BuffaloRush Posted February 21, 2018 Author Posted February 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Kirby is better connected that most on this board. All the proof I need. And the whole thing then was a shambles. You mistake me pointing out what actually happened for me trying to defend the Bills in some way or defend Brandon or Levy. I don't. The Bills had a period between Donahue and Nix with a complete disaster of a front office set up. It wasn't just that we had bad GMs... that would be one thing... it was that we had a structure so utterly bonkers and bizarre it was unique im the NFL then or at any time since. People can say a lot about Buddy Nix as a GM and his draft record isn't great either but at least with Buddy we are just talking about bad evaluations and bad picks. The Nix era could have succeeded if he was just better at his job. The Modrak era never had a chance. It was doomed from the start. Fair enough. I don’t know Kirby at all and you can understand why it’s hard for me to believe someone who goes by the name “Kirby Jackson” complete with the #47 avatar. We have a lot of people posing as being connected - including my favorite Dunkirk Don. Until I can verify more information I probably won’t trust what KJ says at face value. Like I said, I totally agree the structure at ODB was a mess. Still I’m not going to evaluate Modrak as a draft analyzer. This is all about GM’s and Marv and Russ were the GM at the time
billsfanmiami(oh) Posted February 22, 2018 Posted February 22, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said: Fair enough. I don’t know Kirby at all and you can understand why it’s hard for me to believe someone who goes by the name “Kirby Jackson” complete with the #47 avatar. We have a lot of people posing as being connected - including my favorite Dunkirk Don. Until I can verify more information I probably won’t trust what KJ says at face value. Like I said, I totally agree the structure at ODB was a mess. Still I’m not going to evaluate Modrak as a draft analyzer. This is all about GM’s and Marv and Russ were the GM at the time Dont know if you’re “baiting” or not, but if you follow things around here closely you’ll certainly come to realize KJ is absolutely tied into things that happen at OBD. I doubt any “regulars” would disagree.
BuffaloRush Posted February 22, 2018 Author Posted February 22, 2018 56 minutes ago, billsfanmiami(oh) said: Dont know if you’re “baiting” or not, but if you follow things around here closely you’ll certainly come to realize KJ is absolutely tied into things that happen at OBD. I doubt any “regulars” would disagree. I’ll have to play closer attention
whatdrought Posted February 22, 2018 Posted February 22, 2018 6 hours ago, BuffaloRush said: It's baaack. We will continue to take a look at the past General Managers in Buffalo and who was the most successful with the draft based on hits and misses. Today it's time to see how The Bills favorite prodigal son Russ "This Brand Has Been Tarnished" Brandon did. If you recall Brandon was named "General Manager" after former GM Marv Levy quietly stepped aside. It is believed that while Brandon was involved in many football decision, the majority of GM duties (including the draft) fell to the competent trio of Tom Modrak (Draft), John Guy (Pro) and Richard "Dick" Jauron (A Bit of Everything). Here's the criteria I shared for defining a "hit" and a "miss" While this is very subjective, I am defining a "hit" as any player that reasonably performed at or above his draft status. As an example, a player like Paul Pozlusny becoming a solid starting LB as a 2nd round pick. A "miss" is the opposite - a player who performed under or well under their draft status. If you draft a player in the first round and they are a marginal starter, I am defining that as a miss. Like many of my polls, I think this will be very debated. Let's see how old Russ did in his only draft as GM: Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ 2008 1 Leodis McKelvin 11 DB 2016 0 0 4 29 111 15 Troy 2008 2 James Hardy 41 WR 2009 0 0 0 1 16 10 96 2 Indiana 2008 3 Chris Ellis 72 DE 2010 0 0 0 2 15 1.0 Virginia Tech 2008 4 Reggie Corner 114 DB 2011 0 0 0 8 55 2 1.0 Akron 2008 4 Derek Fine 132 TE 2009 0 0 0 2 18 19 158 1 Kansas 2008 5 Alvin Bowen 147 LB 2010 0 0 0 0 2 Iowa St. 2008 6 Xavier Omon 179 RB 2009 0 0 0 0 7 11 27 0 0 0 0 NW Missouri St. 2008 7 Demetress Bell 219 T 2012 0 0 2 15 40 NW State (LA) 2008 7 Steve Johnson 224 WR 2015 0 0 5 33 99 2 16 0 381 4764 34 Kentucky 2008 7 Kennard Cox 251 DB 2014 0 0 0 2 29 0.5 Pittsburgh 2008 Draft = 2 Hits/8 Misses = Success Rate of 20% This was an unsuccessful draft in oh...so many ways. MISSES Yes Leodis McKelvin was a "miss." You can say that was an an "average NFL starter," but you NOT draft an "average NFL starter" with the 11th pick in the first round. I am sorry but Leodis never lived up to his draft status this was a miss. Speaking of miss - one of the most spectacular 2nd round busts in Bills history was James Hardy. This was an ill-advised pick based on a player's physical size which never materialized. Easily one of the worst 2nd draft picks since Bucky Brooks. The rest of the guy are nobodies...just a terrible brutal draft. Just brutal. HITS Old Russ did the 7th round right. First, I will give Demetrius Bell a very very very marginal thumbs up. He essentially was a 3 year starter for the Bills as a 7th round pick. I will call him a slightly "average NFL starter" which is good for a 7th round pick (not the 11th pick in the 1st round). Then there is Stevie Johnson. Say what you will about the competence of this trio, but Russ Brandon made arguably one of the greatest draft picks in Bills history. So overall yes, Russ was a very bad GM...BUT he did a great job of tarnishing the brand. Still his 20% success rate is only slightly worse that Marv Levy. For those keeping score: Success Rate as GM: Marv Levy: 31% Russ Brandon: 20% I think the argument could be made that Whitner and McKelvin were about the same all things considered. McKelvin seemed to get hurt whenever he started to pick up some traction. I completely forgot about Demetrius Bell! What a memory! Whatever happened to that guy?
ChevyVanMiller Posted February 22, 2018 Posted February 22, 2018 2 hours ago, BuffaloRush said: Fair enough. I don’t know Kirby at all and you can understand why it’s hard for me to believe someone who goes by the name “Kirby Jackson” complete with the #47 avatar. We have a lot of people posing as being connected - including my favorite Dunkirk Don. Until I can verify more information I probably won’t trust what KJ says at face value. Like I said, I totally agree the structure at ODB was a mess. Still I’m not going to evaluate Modrak as a draft analyzer. This is all about GM’s and Marv and Russ were the GM at the time It says "Rookie" under your name for a reason. Kirby's credentials are as solid as they come. I appreciate the research you put into your posts, you need to appreciate the history of posters that have earned their stripes.
BuffaloRush Posted February 22, 2018 Author Posted February 22, 2018 14 minutes ago, whatdrought said: I think the argument could be made that Whitner and McKelvin were about the same all things considered. McKelvin seemed to get hurt whenever he started to pick up some traction. I completely forgot about Demetrius Bell! What a memory! Whatever happened to that guy? You know - that’s an excellent point. I probably should change his status to a “miss” considering he was a Top 10 pick and never lived up to that status in Buffalo
Steptide Posted February 22, 2018 Posted February 22, 2018 I have a gut feeling that jauron was picking the draft in those days. I mean, would any gm pick Aaron Maybin in the first round? I feel like the entire bills front office in those days had absolutely no idea what it was doing
whatdrought Posted February 22, 2018 Posted February 22, 2018 6 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: You know - that’s an excellent point. I probably should change his status to a “miss” considering he was a Top 10 pick and never lived up to that status in Buffalo Most likely. Also, I respect you for having the mental fortitude to go back through these pains. lol
BuffaloRush Posted February 22, 2018 Author Posted February 22, 2018 21 minutes ago, ChevyVanMiller said: It says "Rookie" under your name for a reason. Kirby's credentials are as solid as they come. I appreciate the research you put into your posts, you need to appreciate the history of posters that have earned their stripes. What are his credentials though? There are several people here who claim to have “inside information.” It’s hard for me take anyone seriously after the whole Dunkirk Don incident
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