Not So Fast on a Huge Deal for Kirk Cousins says Andrew Brandt

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

I normally like Andrew Brandt, but he is wrong here. If he had to bet on this.....I'm betting he wouldn't do it. #noskininthegame #getclicks

Edited February 20, 2018 by horned dogs

[BuffaLoko]

2 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

He beat out RG3 and lost out to Alex Smith - That’s his resume headline and the floor and ceiling of his abilities respectively. 

Nice way to put it O29!!...only that because of the hugely different price tag of each for the skins, it is not an apple to apple comparison...

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 hour ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Cousins isn't happy with the skins.

They lowballed the crap out of him last year, and when he rejected, they threw the franchise on him, against his wishes, then slammed him publicly.

That punched his ticket out the door.

 

......thanks for the clarification.....makes perfect sense that Snyder & His Gang would screw it up.......lowball him, back to back tags for a total of $44 mil and to finally piss him off makes for a helluva football team.......

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Nice breakdown by Farrar.

 

It is indeed.  Good read, thanks!

 

I'd like to see a similar assessment of what went on for, say, Matt Ryan whose # of INTs almost doubled (and I think matched Cousins) this year.

Overall, Cousins still threw <1 INT per game and >2 TD for every INT.  Teams can usually win with that.

 

I think the #1 reason why Cousins won't get a huge deal, is if he's sincere about winning, he'll chose a team that he sees as having the most pieces in place over a team that is willing to pay him more, but doesn't have as good support for him.

Edited February 20, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

This concept isn't that far fetched.  I posted similar a while ago.

 

Cheaper options (Keenum, possibly Foles) may be available and every team that has a high pick and needs a QB will likely draft their next starter.  That leaves a shriveled market for Cousins.  If Denver is his only real option (unless the Jets lose their minds), then all of Cousins's leverage is gone.

It doesn't matter how shriveled the market is as long as there are a few teams willing to pay a premium price. Denver and the Jets appear to be seriously interested in him. There is also a scenario where the Browns might be interested in him if they want to be competitive sooner rather than later. 

 

When it is all tabulated Cousins has played the system as well as it can be played. Over the past two years under a franchise tag he has gotten elite money, and very soon he will be a free agent attracting some big time offers. Although there are some cheaper options with qbs such as Keenum there are still bidders for his service. Cousins has smartly timed the market and it will soon respond to him. 

[26CornerBlitz]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It is indeed.  Good read, thanks!

 

I'd like to see a similar assessment of what went on for, say, Matt Ryan whose # of INTs almost doubled (and I think matched Cousins) this year.

Overall, Cousins still threw <1 INT per game and >2 TD for every INT.  Teams can usually win with that.

 

I think the #1 reason why Cousins won't get a huge deal, is if he's sincere about winning, he'll chose a team that he sees as having the most pieces in place over a team that is willing to pay him more, but doesn't have as good support for him.

 

MIN would be the team for that scenario.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

MIN would be the team for that scenario.

 

Agree

[SoTier]

32 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

This concept isn't that far fetched.  I posted similar a while ago.

 

Cheaper options (Keenum, possibly Foles) may be available and every team that has a high pick and needs a QB will likely draft their next starter.  That leaves a shriveled market for Cousins.  If Denver is his only real option (unless the Jets lose their minds), then all of Cousins's leverage is gone.

 

Cheaper options, maybe, but neither Keenum nor Foles can boast Cousins' record over several years, so the chances they crash and burn is a lot higher than Cousins doing so.  QBs of the level of Glennon and Taylor were in the $18-$19 million a year bracket last year, so  I think it's unlikely that any team is going to even consider offering Cousins < $20 million, and given that Alex Smith recently signed for $24 million/year, it's fair to say that $25-$30 million/a year is the current going rate for successful starting QBs in their primes.  Cousins is certainly that.  

 

Denver, Phoenix, and maybe the Bills seem likely suitors since they're all teams that have potential to make the playoffs with reasonable upgrades, including at QB.  If any of these believe they aren't likely to be able to get their QB in the draft, I could see them taking a run at Cousins.  Cleveland might be as well but with the #1 and #4 picks in the draft, they seem likely to go the draft route.   I'm not sure about the Jests.  They have lots of cap space but is NYC Cousins' kind of town?   Is the team good enough to be a playoff contender in a year or so?  

 

Where ever Cousins goes, he's going to get paid well.

[reddogblitz]

Whenever someone says "it's not about the money", it's about the money.

 

Money talks and BS walks.

[starrymessenger]

Cousins is a good QB and he's going to get paid. He's earned it the hard way. But I think he may be somewhat overrated relative to the dollars he may command. I'm not sure I mind so much if the Jets back up the truck. There may not be much of a net benefit to their  roster overall in allocating so much of their cap to securing his services. If I'm the Bills I think I'd rather draft/develop a guy and sign a veteran capable of starting to serve as a bridge.

[xRUSHx]

I tend to think Cleveland would be a very attractive spot for him to look at if they rolled out the money truck for him. It is a young team and with keeping all there draft picks this year that team could be ready to roll big time into the playoff picture with the addition of Cousins even though I also agree the Vikes is more then likely his landing spot. Cleveland is a interesting choice though for him IMO.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

It doesn't matter how shriveled the market is as long as there are a few teams willing to pay a premium price. Denver and the Jets appear to be seriously interested in him. There is also a scenario where the Browns might be interested in him if they want to be competitive sooner rather than later. 

 

When it is all tabulated Cousins has played the system as well as it can be played. Over the past two years under a franchise tag he has gotten elite money, and very soon he will be a free agent attracting some big time offers. Although there are some cheaper options with qbs such as Keenum there are still bidders for his service. Cousins has smartly timed the market and it will soon respond to him. 

 

 

Disagree.  If he's not gone by the draft--there's your tell...

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

Cheaper options, maybe, but neither Keenum nor Foles can boast Cousins' record over several years, so the chances they crash and burn is a lot higher than Cousins doing so.  QBs of the level of Glennon and Taylor were in the $18-$19 million a year bracket last year, so  I think it's unlikely that any team is going to even consider offering Cousins < $20 million, and given that Alex Smith recently signed for $24 million/year, it's fair to say that $25-$30 million/a year is the current going rate for successful starting QBs in their primes.  Cousins is certainly that.  

 

Denver, Phoenix, and maybe the Bills seem likely suitors since they're all teams that have potential to make the playoffs with reasonable upgrades, including at QB.  If any of these believe they aren't likely to be able to get their QB in the draft, I could see them taking a run at Cousins.  Cleveland might be as well but with the #1 and #4 picks in the draft, they seem likely to go the draft route.   I'm not sure about the Jests.  They have lots of cap space but is NYC Cousins' kind of town?   Is the team good enough to be a playoff contender in a year or so?  

 

Where ever Cousins goes, he's going to get paid well.

 

 Cousins's  record?  26-30-1.  24-23-1 the past 3 seasons.  Alex Smith 50-26 in KC.

 

The Glennon and Osweiler are why teams will take pause (especially Denver) when dropping big bucks on FA QBs. 

[JohnC]

44 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Disagree.  If he's not gone by the draft--there's your tell...

 

 

I'm very confident you will be wrong. It's not about the timing as it is about the outcome. Trust the process. 

Edited February 20, 2018 by JohnC

[RememberTheRockpile]

6 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Denver has a decent receiver corps and but their offensive line is bad and their vaunted defense was 22nd in points allowed last year. (#3 in yards). 

 

That is a bit misleading (not accusing you). The points the Denver defense allowed included touchdowns on 1 punt return, 1 kick return, 2 pick 6's, and 2 fumbles. In the category of the "defense wasn't even on the field" they were tied for 1st with Indy at 6 (4 interceptions and 2 fumbles). If you subtract 7 from points allowed for each of those categories for every team they end up 19th. The Bills ended up at 21st. 

[Ol Dirty B]

6 hours ago, Commonsense said:

This is click bait. Cousins is going to get P A I D and everyone knows it. The only debate is if he is worth what he is going to get.

 

Agree, a lot of the media traffics in just being counter culture and flat out wrong because they know that will get them attention, and in turn, money.

[Mango]

5 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Cousins has very solid numbers and will be a top 10 quarterback for years to come. I hate to say it but the $60 million first year deal actually sounds pretty wise. Get a hug chunk of the deal out of the way so the Jets could build around him by signing their own FA as they need too. Cousins could be a really good fit for the Jets. 

 

 

I agree with this. People are hating it though. 

 

It is gonna cost, what it is gonna cost to sign Cousins. It is not like he will take 18 mil to sign in Minnesota, or 30 mil to sign in Cleveland. Everybody will be in the 27-30 mil range. A QB like Cousins (whatever your ranking of him) rarely hits the market after his last few years. And teams rarely have the cap space the Jets and Browns do this year. It is incredibly wise to take the hit now while you have the space. Moving forward, in the last 4 years, he only costs you 20 mil. About average for a starting QB these days. 

 

The numbers sound crazy, because the QB market cost has skyrocketed the last few seasons. But 20 mil per year is pretty mundane for the position these days. If he regresses to the mean of the league, they still are in a really good spot whether they decide to keep or trade him down the line. 

 

I would consider signing Kirk to this deal, and trading down from 6 AND 38, and stock up on picks the next 2 years. With Kirk and a good draft they are 9-7 this coming year, with a QB in place, and draft capital for 2019. Depending on Bowles after that, it would be a really easy situation to make a HUGE splash for a new HC for 2019 as well. It "could be" the corner stone move, to a very quick and bright future for the organization. 

 

 

All that said, its the Jets. They'll pick some moderate players high in the draft. Sign Kirk. Fire Bowles. Get whoever is a half step above being the Browns HC, and flame out. Kirk will still be tough to beat, and they will be a thorn in the divisions side, because they really aren't very good, but a pain in the arse to play week in week out. 

[atlbillsfan1975]

11 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

 

I agree with this. People are hating it though. 

 

It is gonna cost, what it is gonna cost to sign Cousins. It is not like he will take 18 mil to sign in Minnesota, or 30 mil to sign in Cleveland. Everybody will be in the 27-30 mil range. A QB like Cousins (whatever your ranking of him) rarely hits the market after his last few years. And teams rarely have the cap space the Jets and Browns do this year. It is incredibly wise to take the hit now while you have the space. Moving forward, in the last 4 years, he only costs you 20 mil. About average for a starting QB these days. 

 

The numbers sound crazy, because the QB market cost has skyrocketed the last few seasons. But 20 mil per year is pretty mundane for the position these days. If he regresses to the mean of the league, they still are in a really good spot whether they decide to keep or trade him down the line. 

 

I would consider signing Kirk to this deal, and trading down from 6 AND 38, and stock up on picks the next 2 years. With Kirk and a good draft they are 9-7 this coming year, with a QB in place, and draft capital for 2019. Depending on Bowles after that, it would be a really easy situation to make a HUGE splash for a new HC for 2019 as well. It "could be" the corner stone move, to a very quick and bright future for the organization. 

 

 

All that said, its the Jets. They'll pick some moderate players high in the draft. Sign Kirk. Fire Bowles. Get whoever is a half step above being the Browns HC, and flame out. Kirk will still be tough to beat, and they will be a thorn in the divisions side, because they really aren't very good, but a pain in the arse to play week in week out. 

Bowles with Cousins and a good OC would be dangerous. I don’t really want that scenario in New York. I agree that the Jets will probably find a way to screw it up like firing Bowles and not giving him a chance with an actual NFL starting caliber QB.

[26CornerBlitz]

4 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Bowles with Cousins and a good OC would be dangerous. I don’t really want that scenario in New York. I agree that the Jets will probably find a way to screw it up like firing Bowles and not giving him a chance with an actual NFL starting caliber QB.

 

If I were Cousins, I'd take less money to play for the Vikings with John DeFilippo already in place as the OC.

[26CornerBlitz]

Why the Vikings could be an ideal fit for Kirk Cousins

If Kirk Cousins wants to play for a team that will make a long-term investment in his talents, the Minnesota Vikings should be at the top of his list.
 

If the Washington quarterback wants to play for a franchise built to win now, his best opportunity, arguably, is in Minneapolis.

 

[Saxum]

8 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Can't agree with this with the NYJ in the running. 

Just link to damn article

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/02/20/nfl-free-agency-2018-kirk-cousins-quarterback-market?utm_campaign=themmqb&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social