Hits and Misses: How Successful Was GM Marv Levy In The Draft?

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

4 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

We’ll see...in the coming weeks I’ll analyze some of the other Bills GM’s of the past

 

 

I'm not trying to compare against other Bill's  GM's, but more against league wide. How's he compare against say Ozzie Newsome, whoever is the Steelers GM and Green Bay.  Those are  stable teams with same people for a long time.  Even comparing to Bill Belichick would be interesting as his drafting record isn't thought to be that great for all the success the team has had.  Or even to teams in the middle of the road, maybe a Detroit, Giants, etc, how'd the Bills GM's stack up against them?

 

To me, that's more meaningful.

Edited February 20, 2018 by Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

[BillsfaninChicago]

Marv was pretty much a figure head GM that functioned as an advisor. The only major decision he made primarily on his own was hiring Jauron. It kind of explains why they didn’t even bother filling the role once he stepped down just bizarrely making Russ Brandon the de facto GM.

Edited February 20, 2018 by Leonhart2017

[Kirby Jackson]

2 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

This sounds about right! Levy even stated that he left it to the Scouts and Jauron to have the final call on picks.

 

I know why the team picked Whitner and that was to replace SS Lawyer Milloy who Levy thought was all about the money.

 

However. McCargo was a big mystery as to why they traded back up into the first round for that bum.  I think this speaks as to just how bad the Buffalo Bills scouting dept was back then. All I know is I hated Asst GM Tom Modrak for his draft selections. I get the impression that picks like McCargo was his idea. Modrak a former Steelers scout like Donahoe, Whaley who also worked for them. With such weird draft choices, I used to wonder if people in the Bills scouting dept were being paid by Robert Kraft too. 

That’s actually 100% fact. That is what happened during the draft meeting.

[Houston's #1 Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Livinginthepast said:

I remember a mock draft at the time saying that Ngata was an obvious pick for the Bills. I didn't know anything about him before the draft but once I looked him up it made perfect sense they would pick him. Then they mysteriously didn't pick him. Another boneheaded move by the Bills. Most of the drafts of the past 20 years, its like the Bills management and the scouts did zero homework on many of these picks and were just guessing.

Fast-forward to 2018 and it's Vita Vea (often compared to Ngata!) that is the obvious pick. We NEED a stout nose tackle.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

As the draft approaches, I'm taking a look at the past General Managers in Buffalo and who was the most successful with the draft based on hits and misses.  While this is very subjective, I am defining a "hit" as any player that reasonably performed at or above his draft status.  As an example, a player like Paul Pozlusny becoming a solid starting LB as a 2nd round pick.  A "miss" is the opposite - a player who performed under or well under their draft status.  If you draft a player in the first round and they are a marginal starter, I am defining that as a miss.  

 

Like many of my polls, I think this will be very debated.  But let's start with our boy Marv Levy.  He served as Bills GM from 2006-2008 running 2 drafts with, what was rumored to be significant input from Dick Jauron and Tom Modrak.    Let's see how Marv did:

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2006	1	Donte Whitner	8	DB	2016	0	3	9	50	157												11	3.0	Ohio St.
2006	1	John McCargo	26	DT	2011	0	0	0	3	44													2.5	North Carolina St.
2006	3	Ashton Youboty	70	DB	2011	0	0	0	8	49												2	2.0	Ohio St.
2006	4	Ko Simpson	105	DB	2009	0	0	2	13	41												3	1.0	South Carolina
2006	5	Kyle Williams	134	DT	2017	0	5	10	72	167						1	1	1				1	43.5	LSU
2006	5	Brad Butler	143	T	2009	0	0	2	13	33									0	0	0			Virginia
2006	6	Keith Ellison	178	LB	2010	0	0	3	19	58						1	6	0				2	2.0	Oregon St.
2006	7	Terrance Pennington	216	T	2007	0	0	1	4	16														New Mexico
2006	7	Aaron Merz	248	G	2006	0	0	0	1	7														California

 

2006 Draft = 3 Hits/6 Misses = Success Rate of 33%

I'm giving Whitner a marginal hit.  While he was a starter for the Bills, Top 10 picks needs to be All-Pros.  He was solid with the Bills but I'm not sure if he played to his draft position.  Kyle is explanatory. I'm also giving Marv a "hit" for Brad Butler - a 5th round pick who started admirably for almost 3 seasons before retiring due to injuries.  

 

ear	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2007	1	Marshawn Lynch	12	RB	2017	1	5	8	72	142	1	3	8	1	0	2351	10003	81	272	2130	9			California
2007	2	Paul Posluszny	34	LB	2017	0	1	9	58	145												15	16.0	Penn St.
2007	3	Trent Edwards	92	QB	2012	0	0	2	17	38	563	929	6033	26	30	78	330	3	0	0	0			Stanford
2007	4	Dwayne Wright	111	RB	2007	0	0	0	1	15						29	94	0	3	17	0			Fresno St.
2007	6	John Wendling	184	DB	2013	0	0	0	7	110												1		Wyoming
2007	7	Derek Schouman	222	TE	2010	0	0	1	2	25									27	275	1			Boise St.
2007	7	C.J. Ah You	239	DE	2011	0	0	0	4	33													6.0	Oklahoma

 

2007 Draft = 2 Hits/5 Misses = Success Rate of 29%

Again I am giving Marshawn a marginal hit based on what he did in Buffalo his first two seasons.  Of course, that one is close.  Ditto for Poz, he never turned into an All-Pro but was definitely a stellar selection in the 2nd round.  The rest was just pure crap for this crew.

 

 

Marv Levy's overall success rate in the draft = 31%

 

Synopsis:  Marv's crown jewel was drafting Kyle Williams in the 5th round.  Lynch developed into a well...beast in Seattle running with a well-schemed offense, but he wasn't as productive with the Bills.  Aside from that, the success rate for Marv leaves a lot to be desired.

 

Hey, great job putting data together!  Thanks!

 

As a suggestion though....you might need to look at this in the context of an "average" draft.  No GM hits on every pick.  Take a look at what a GM you consider to be a great drafter does, and what a GM you consider to be a horrible drafter does.

 

In addition, the success rate needs to be weighted by draft round to be placed in context.

 

For example:

The success rate of a player in the top half of the 1st to become a solid NFL starter should be about 50%.

Bottom of the 1st/top of the 2nd, should be 20-30%. 

Rest of the 2nd/3rd, 20%

4-7th 5-10% (let's call it 10% overall)

 

So looked at that way, you would expect "average" results to be a hit rate of (0.5 + 0.3 + 0.2 + 4x0.1)/7 or 20% at best (calculated for drafting high)

31% overall, would actually be above average.

 

A lot of GMs and their scouts around the league are just not very good at drafting.

 

Let's break it down according to the above guidelines:

Top 1st round: 2/2 = 100%, better than average (that's if you count Marshawn Lynch as a success in B'lo. 1/2 or 50% if you don't.)

Bottom 1st/2nd = 1/2, 50%, better than average

3rd round = 0/2, worse than average but small sample size

4th round = 2/10, 20%, better than average

 

PS special message to my respected bud Badlands Meanie if he responds to call this "too messy and mathy": dial 1-800-BITE-MEE

 

 

 

6 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’ve said it before but Levy pretty much had nothing to do with the GM job. He literally SLEPT through the big pre-draft scouting meeting.

 

That may be true, but he held the title so....

Edited February 20, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[GrizzReaper]

Slept through the meeting huh? He had to have known he had little to no control over the draft if thats what happened. He was aware his appointment to that position was a show and he acted accordingly. Kind of sad though... I would have thought Levy the type of guy to say well if Im the GM I'm going to do the best job I can. Not go along with a dog and pony show. Sad...

Edited February 20, 2018 by GrizzReaper

[Jay_Fixit]

 

15 hours ago, seven&nine said:

 

I agree that Butler was decent value, but he retired to enter politics and never blamed it on injury. I always wonder what could have been with him. 

Yup, he did tear an ACL but that’s not why he retired.

 

And sure, he seemed ok but calling him a “hit” is inaccurate. Not Josh Allen inaccurate but close.

 

Levy was a disaster. Even outside of his coaching in SBXXV

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

However. McCargo was a big mystery as to why they traded back up into the first round for that bum.  I think this speaks as to just how bad the Buffalo Bills scouting dept was back then. All I know is I hated Asst GM Tom Modrak for his draft selections. I get the impression that picks like McCargo was his idea. Modrak a former Steelers scout like Donahoe, Whaley who also worked for them. With such weird draft choices, I used to wonder if people in the Bills scouting dept were being paid by Robert Kraft too. 

 

I had the impression that the Bills Scouting department had a legacy mindset that they were smarter than everyone else. 

Which is OK, if you actually ARE smarter than everyone else.  Which they weren't.

 

That's why they over-drafted so many guys.

[Pete]

15 hours ago, Logic said:

To think that we could have had a Haloti Ngata/Kyle Williams DT duo, but got bust McCargo and Whiffner instead. Yuck.

DT was a huge need that year, and 90% of TBD wanted and thought we would draft Ngata- and we were collectively floored when the Whitner pick was announced.  Same with the Brian Orakpo pick.  NFL front offices know more then message boards, but those drafts I wonder

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Hey, great job putting data together!  Thanks!

 

As a suggestion though....you might need to look at this in the context of an "average" draft.  No GM hits on every pick.  Take a look at what a GM you consider to be a great drafter does, and what a GM you consider to be a horrible drafter does.

 

In addition, the success rate needs to be weighted by draft round to be placed in context.

 

For example:

The success rate of a player in the top half of the 1st to become a solid NFL starter should be about 50%.

Bottom of the 1st/top of the 2nd, should be 20-30%. 

Rest of the 2nd/3rd, 20%

4-7th 5-10% (let's call it 10% overall)

 

So looked at that way, you would expect "average" results to be a hit rate of (0.5 + 0.3 + 0.2 + 4x0.1)/7 or 20% at best (calculated for drafting high)

31% overall, would actually be above average.

 

A lot of GMs and their scouts around the league are just not very good at drafting.

 

Let's break it down according to the above guidelines:

Top 1st round: 2/2 = 100%, better than average (that's if you count Marshawn Lynch as a success in B'lo. 1/2 or 50% if you don't.)

Bottom 1st/2nd = 1/2, 50%, better than average

3rd round = 0/2, worse than average but small sample size

4th round = 2/10, 20%, better than average

 

PS special message to my respected bud Badlands Meanie if he responds to call this "too messy and mathy": dial 1-800-BITE-MEE

 

 

 

 

That may be true, but he held the title so....

That is my point. You can blame anyone that you want but if you think that the guy sleeping through the meeting was making any decisions you are mistaken. He was just there. Marv isn’t the reason that any draft succeeded or failed. I’d go as far to say that he isn’t eve “a” reason. 

Edited February 20, 2018 by Kirby Jackson

[SoCal Deek]

Maybe I’m an overly tough grader but I wouldn’t count taking a DT (Kyle) in the Fifth Round something I’d use as a resume builder!

[JohnC]

9 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That is my point. You can blame anyone that you want but if you think that the guy sleeping through the meeting was making any decisions you are mistaken. He was just there. Marv isn’t the reason that any draft succeeded or failed. I’d go as far to say that he isn’t eve “a” reason. 

When Marv was asked what his role was with the organization he said he saw it as a "facilitator". The reality is that he didn't want to be a GM. He succumbed to the owner's pressure out of loyalty to him. Marv was smart enough to know he was out of his depth in the job. He was a man of dignity and left on his own accord when he could have stayed on. 

 

The way the organization was structured and the chaotic and incoherent way it was managed was an embarrassment. The Bills during the last stage of the owner's stewardship were an archaic and relic of the past that had no chance of winning. Brandon took over when Marv left. A lot of people criticize Brandon for how the team was managed. But in my view he took on a job thrust on him and to his best ability held things together. 

 

If I'm not mistaken didn't Modrak as the primary college scout work out of his home in Jacksonville? 

[LTarmy]

Marv gets an F just for the hire of Dixon Jauron.  From what I read and heard, Marv was just a figure head, to make Bills fans forget about Donahue...who had angered Bills fans.

 

Jauron had the most input of any one on the room...his picks just screamed of Jauron.  Small, fast players....who were injury prone and struggle to play football.  

 

 

[Kirby Jackson]

16 minutes ago, JohnC said:

When Marv was asked what his role was with the organization he said he saw it as a "facilitator". The reality is that he didn't want to be a GM. He succumbed to the owner's pressure out of loyalty to him. Marv was smart enough to know he was out of his depth in the job. He was a man of dignity and left on his own accord when he could have stayed on. 

 

The way the organization was structured and the chaotic and incoherent way it was managed was an embarrassment. The Bills during the last stage of the owner's stewardship were an archaic and relic of the past that had no chance of winning. Brandon took over when Marv left. A lot of people criticize Brandon for how the team was managed. But in my view he took on a job thrust on him and to his best ability held things together. 

 

If I'm not mistaken didn't Modrak as the primary college scout work out of his home in Jacksonville? 

All of this is true. Modrak was basically running the college end of things from Florida. John Guy was overseeing the pro operation in Buffalo. That was kind of the 2 headed monster from Donahoe to Nix.

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

All of this is true. Modrak was basically running the college end of things from Florida. John Guy was overseeing the pro operation in Buffalo. That was kind of the 2 headed monster from Donahoe to Nix.

John Guy was an awful pro scout. He over-rated the talent and over paid for that lagging talent. If I recall he stayed in his position for a decade or longer. A classic example of a mediocre talent burrowing in an organization. 

 

The biggest disappointment was Donahoe. I thought he was going to be the fix for this plagued franchise. He was a disaster. And his crony hires weighed this organization down even after the owner dismissed him. The biggest weakness that Donahoe had wasn't his football acumen. Although he over-rated himself. It was Donahoe the insufferable and arrogant person who ended up sabotaging himself because he was Donahoe the arrogant and insufferable person. 

[eball]

Hey OP -- you bored or something?

[BuffaloRush]

Bottom line - Levy was GM at the time of the hire.  He gets full credit or blame for these picks

7 hours ago, ricojes said:

Marv was a terrible hire for GM.  I can't see there being much debate about that.

 

Bottom line - Marv was the GM and that's the point of this post.  Russ Brandon probably wasn't the GM either but that's the only that's official.  The whole "Marv wasn't running the show as GM" line is widely speculated but at the end of the day it's all rumor and innuendo.  

[Kirby Jackson]

31 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

Bottom line - Levy was GM at the time of the hire.  He gets full credit or blame for these picks

 

Bottom line - Marv was the GM and that's the point of this post.  Russ Brandon probably wasn't the GM either but that's the only that's official.  The whole "Marv wasn't running the show as GM" line is widely speculated but at the end of the day it's all rumor and innuendo.  

I promise it’s not rumor. The stories that I am telling are from people in that room (and verified by others in the room). 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That is my point. You can blame anyone that you want but if you think that the guy sleeping through the meeting was making any decisions you are mistaken. He was just there. Marv isn’t the reason that any draft succeeded or failed. I’d go as far to say that he isn’t eve “a” reason. 

 

I agree, the guy sleeping through meetings is not making decisions, but if he accepted a job with the title "General Manager" and chose to exercise his duties by snoozin' through meetings, he still "stops the buck"

[Saxum]

8 hours ago, matter2003 said:

He also gave a monster contract to Derrick Dockery and grabbed Robert Royal and Peerless Price in FA...three major blunders

He gave no contracts; Marv was not involved in contracts just as Whiley wasn't.

1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said:

Bottom line - Levy was GM at the time of the hire.  He gets full credit or blame for these picks

 

Bottom line - Marv was the GM and that's the point of this post.  Russ Brandon probably wasn't the GM either but that's the only that's official.  The whole "Marv wasn't running the show as GM" line is widely speculated but at the end of the day it's all rumor and innuendo.  

Bottom line - you dismiss anything that does not agree with your theory.