Gunner's 2018 Mock Draft UPDATED - Final version on Page 6

[H2o]

Nice work for a pre-FA and combine mock my friend 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Rosen question for anyone, who is the last prospect that threw the ball as well as him? Stafford maybe? I think that he is a more natural thrower than Luck. Rosen has some questions with health and his quirky (outspoken) personality but as a passer he is elite IMO.

if he thinks Donny is an idiot   Add a +1 on the likability chart 

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s a realistic look at what it will cost based on the updated draft value chart.

the OP or mine?  

 

Don't break the bank on a guy who may or may not work 

6 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Or they keep 3 and one is inactive on Gameday 

that would be my guess.

 

but first ...  (I guess I missed it)  - 

Rosen, NP and who else?  

[Kirby Jackson]

5 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

if he thinks Donny is an idiot   Add a +1 on the likability chart 

the OP or mine?  

 

Don't break the bank on a guy who may or may not work 

that would be my guess.

 

but first ...  (I guess I missed it)  - 

Rosen, NP and who else?  

What Gunner suggested as the trade 21,22,53, a 4th and next year’s 2nd is a fair estimate of what we are talking to get into the top 5.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Your lips to god's ears, gooner

 

[aristocrat]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

What Gunner suggested as the trade 21,22,53, a 4th and next year’s 2nd is a fair estimate of what we are talking to get into the top 5.

 

 i wonder if shaw lawson has much value? if he can be thrown in the trade making it just the 2 ones would that be enough?  

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, aristocrat said:

 

 i wonder if shaw lawson has much value? if he can be thrown in the trade making it just the 2 ones would that be enough?  

I’d think he could fetch about a 4th (like Ragland did). So you are still a 2 this year and a 2 next year short.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

11 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

What Gunner suggested as the trade 21,22,53, a 4th and next year’s 2nd is a fair estimate of what we are talking to get into the top 5.

too damn expensive if you as me.   

 

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, ShadyBillsFan said:

too damn expensive if you as me.   

 

That’s the cost of doing business. It certainly is a lot to give up but if you want one of the top guys that’s what you’ll pay. I’m fine with it because of the extra picks. Using Gunner’s trade we would still have a 2nd, 3rd and 2 5ths. I would think that you would have your QB, 2 starters, a #2 RB and a depth guy. That’s not a ton of guys but a lot of boxes checked. 

[JohnC]

6 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

too damn expensive if you as me.   

 

If you come out of this draft with a long term franchise qb nothing is too much. Ask the Rams or the Eagles if they paid too much for their respective franchise qbs? The Bills have been meandering on the qb issue for a long time. It's time to do what has to be done to get the job accomplished. Don't fear failure----pursue success. 

20 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

Your lips to god's ears, gooner

 

Rumor has it he has very wet lips. You don't want his lips anywhere near your ears. Just too sloppy!

Edited February 19, 2018 by JohnC

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

10 minutes ago, JohnC said:

If you come out of this draft with a long term franchise qb nothing is too much. Ask the Rams or the Eagles if they paid too much for their respective franchise qbs? The Bills have been meandering on the qb issue for a long time. It's time to do what has to be done to get the job accomplished. Don't fear failure----pursue success. 

Rumor has it he has very wet lips. You don't want his lips anywhere near your ears. Just too sloppy!

 

Not mine, god's.

 

 

[dollars 2 donuts]

4 hours ago, Buddo said:

How much of the trade up to #3, is coloured by what you would like to see done?

 

Tbh, I think #3 is about as high up as we can get, without giving up way too much, so from that standpoint, I can see the possibility.

 

I just think that the Giants would be mad to not take a QB, when they won't get such a high pick, combined with a good QB class, in probably another 10 years or so. And if they do, then unless they take Allen to sit, the whole pack of cards comes tumbling down.

 

I've also seen where the Colts are desperate for an edge rusher, and could well take Chubb @ #3, although there might be alternatives they would be happy with around the early 20s.

 

Good effort though, and nice analysis to back it up. Food for thought.

 

 

The Bills were last in the top two in 1985.  It is rare to be up that high and I can't imagine, in a year that is deep with good QBs, that the NYG would trade out of a spot that would potentially keep them set at the most important position in sports for another 13 years.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

19 minutes ago, JohnC said:

If you come out of this draft with a long term franchise qb nothing is too much. Ask the Rams or the Eagles if they paid too much for their respective franchise qbs? The Bills have been meandering on the qb issue for a long time. It's time to do what has to be done to get the job accomplished. Don't fear failure----pursue success. 

Rumor has it he has very wet lips. You don't want his lips anywhere near your ears. Just too sloppy!

thats the problem  IF  

[KRT88]

5 draft picks traded for 1

 

no way

 

I'd offer the 21 and 22, plus a 2019 1st and a 3rd this year but not going 4 picks this year plus a 2nd from next year. 

 

24. Panthers - Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame 

 

massively under drafted.  Likely to go top 10.

Edited February 19, 2018 by KRT88

[GunnerBill]

35 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s the cost of doing business. It certainly is a lot to give up but if you want one of the top guys that’s what you’ll pay. I’m fine with it because of the extra picks. Using Gunner’s trade we would still have a 2nd, 3rd and 2 5ths. I would think that you would have your QB, 2 starters, a #2 RB and a depth guy. That’s not a ton of guys but a lot of boxes checked. 

 

We'd also get a 6th back this year in my trade.  So it is essentially:

 

2 x 1st rounders;

2 x 2nd rounders;

Swap a 4th for a 6th.

 

It isn't quite Jimmy Johnson value but it's a good tax on top of Rich Hill value and when you look at the other trade ups - the Rams cost was 2 x 1sts; 2 x 2nds and 2 x 3rds.  That got them from number 15 to number 1 - which by Jimmy Johnson's chart is a difference of 2,950 points.  

The Bills to get from 21 to number 3 would be looking to make up a difference of only 1,400 points. So 2 x 1sts (neither of which are discounted for future years) leaves a pretty small gap to bridge to be in similar territory.  2 x 2nds and swapping a 4th for a 6th easily bridges that in my opinion.  

 

 

[Kirby Jackson]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

We'd also get a 6th back this year in my trade.  So it is essentially:

 

2 x 1st rounders;

2 x 2nd rounders;

Swap a 4th for a 6th.

 

It isn't quite Jimmy Johnson value but it's a good tax on top of Rich Hill value and when you look at the other trade ups - the Rams cost was 2 x 1sts; 2 x 2nds and 2 x 3rds.  That got them from number 15 to number 1 - which by Jimmy Johnson's chart is a difference of 2,950 points.  

The Bills to get from 21 to number 3 would be looking to make up a difference of only 1,400 points. So 2 x 1sts (neither of which are discounted for future years) leaves a pretty small gap to bridge to be in similar territory.  2 x 2nds and swapping a 4th for a 6th easily bridges that in my opinion.  

 

 

I’ve all but abandoned the Jimmy Johnson chart in exchange for the Rich Hill one. The CBA is so different and it is based on how teams are functioning in this current environment. I’d be all for that deal (and I would think that the Colts would be too). They have one of (if not the) worst rosters in football.

[CuddyDark]

I personally don't like Josh Rosen. He reminds me of Rob Johnson. I hope he goes #1 so we can't have a shot at him. I'm not against trading up but 3 picks within the top 50 is a lot to give unless it's a Manning, Luck type situation and I don't believe Rosen is that. I think he's at best Matt Ryan.

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’ve all but abandoned the Jimmy Johnson chart in exchange for the Rich Hill one. The CBA is so different and it is based on how teams are functioning in this current environment. I’d be all for that deal (and I would think that the Colts would be too). They have one of (if not the) worst rosters in football.

 

I prefer the Hill chart too - but I think most teams still consult the Jimmy Johnson chart to check they are not getting fleeced by it.  So my starting point is always "how close does this get you to the JJ chart value?" and then work from there based on recent actual trades and the Hill chart.  

[BuffaloFan68]

I like this a lot. Wow, 6 QBs in the first round - that's what I 've been saying. 

Let's Go Buffalo!!!!

Edited February 20, 2018 by BuffaloFan68

[GunnerBill]

Just now, BuffaloFan68 said:

I like this a lot. Wow, 8 QBs in the first round - that's what I 've been saying. 

Let's Go Buffalo!!!!

 

8? I think I have 6.  Still a lot though. 

[KRT88]

If the cost would truly be 5 draft picks, I'd rather stay at 21/22 and pick a DT and then Lamar Jackson at 22..  Way too many hole to give away this entire draft. for a QB and no help around them. If you are trading up, I'd prefer Rosen over the others. I want to stay away from Allen.  I have read too many things about the mental side of his game not matching those physical tools. 

 

Unless we somehow find a way to add help in UFA when we have 26M in dead cap money.

Edited February 19, 2018 by KRT88