Terry and Kim, I implore you to make this man rich, and he will reciprocate.

[Fadingpain]

 

Another point he mentions:

 

When won the turnover battle, we were 8-1.

When we tied or lost the turnover battle, we were 1-6.

 

Historical Stats say 2 easiest ways to win a game are:

 

1) Win turnover battle or 

2) Win return TD battle; this means any type of "return" on special teams for a TD (punt return, KO return, blocked FG returned for TD) or a turnover taken in for a TD (fumble recovery taken in or pick 6)....you win 75% of the time when you have more of these types of TDs than your opponent.

 

 

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by Fadingpain

[Seanbillsfan2206]

2 hours ago, Kelsos cap said:

There was a fella on with sal last night, he capsulized what it is to be successful in today’s nfl. Scoop this guy up before others do.

??

[Fadingpain]

2 minutes ago, Augie said:

Or......McD replaced the dummy. I like it better that way. I’ll sleep better, and I need my sleep. 

You mean by swapping out OCs.

 

Let's hope so!  McD made a number of strategic mistakes during the season however, assuming he has final say on that stuff, which I assume he must have.

 

 

[Gugny]

2 minutes ago, Augie said:

Or......McD replaced the dummy. I like it better that way. I’ll sleep better, and I need my sleep. 

 

You're actually correct.  Because the dummy who McD replaced is the one who handpicked Tyrod Taylor, who is the reason the Bills ran the ball on passing downs for the past three years ... because they couldn't trust an inept QB to be a QB in obvious passing situations.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

I'm listening now.  The guy has his own stats website; he's all about analytics. 

 

Of note:

 

Bills called a run play 82% of the time on 2nd and 10 last year, which was the 2nd most in the league.  The league average was only 54%.

The idea (of the Bills) was to run the ball on 2nd down and not get a first down, but get enough yards to make it 3rd and manageable.

 

We were successful on only 13% of those 2nd down run plays.  We averaged 3.4 yards per carry on those 2nd and 10 run plays.

 

His analysis/model suggests we need to do more PASSING on 2nd and 10.  Passing on 2nd and 10 is significantly more efficient and effective than running.  Success rate league wide on 2nd down with a pass is over 50%, whereas a run is only successful 22% of the time(I believe he said).

This is the sort of stuff he was talking about. 

 

He's basically saying that we had the wrong tendency and could have given ourselves a better chance of success had we understood the data as he has presented it. 

 

I.E., McD is a dummy.

 

 

 

 

McD was a dummy for hiring Dennison and gutting his WR corps when they intended to play a rhythm/timing offense.........but as I've said many times...........a lot of the ineffective offense that bothered so many fans during the season was just designed hyper-conservatism.

 

The worst "analysis" of the season by fans and blurry-eyed "pros" like John Murphy was the hand-wringing when the team stopped scoring TD's in the second half after their 3 week defensive implosion.

 

After the defense proved vulnerable to emotional avalanches in that historically bad stretch....... McD and Dennison got more aggressive early on offense to get leads and then just tried to play "keep-away" to nurse leads and scrape out wins to get to the playoffs.   

[Fadingpain]

Just now, Gugny said:

 

You're actually correct.  Because the dummy who McD replaced is the one who handpicked Tyrod Taylor, who is the reason the Bills ran the ball on passing downs for the past three years ... because they couldn't trust an inept QB to be a QB in obvious passing situations.

So the result of this complex analysis is: you need to throw the ball to win these days, but you need a QB who can throw in order to throw.

 

Seems like we should have already known that!
 

 

[The Crowing Rooster]

Well, Kelsos Cap I know you are new here but you are a little too strange for my liking so I have no choice but to block you. 

[Gugny]

Just now, Fadingpain said:

So the result of this complex analysis is: you need to throw the ball to win these days, but you need a QB who can throw in order to throw.

 

Seems like we should have already known that!
 

 

 

If only "we" included the Pegulas and Rex Ryan.

[fridge]

2 hours ago, Kelsos cap said:

Analytics x 10 in my opinion

 

I prefer analytics x ∞

[Fadingpain]

2 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

If only "we" included the Pegulas and Rex Ryan.

Well  I do think they are going all out to get someone they believe can become a franchise guy this year in the draft.

 

So for now, I remain hopeful.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

8 minutes ago, Misterbluesky said:

So it's all moot now because we have a new OC. Ok..then don't B word if Taylor is our starter again next September.

 

 

I've defended Taylor against undue criticism.........if he's back as a bridge for the guy they draft in the first round........and if they actually put him in a position to succeed with some improved receiving personnel and obviously more favorable scheme/play calling...........then I am fine with one more year of TT.

[Misterbluesky]

1 minute ago, Fadingpain said:

You mean by swapping out OCs.

 

Let's hope so!  McD made a number of strategic mistakes during the season however, assuming he has final say on that stuff, which I assume he must have.

 

 

Rookie HC's make mistakes just like rookie players do. Look back at your high school life..would you have made the same decisions that you made in your freshman year in your senior year? I doubt it..

[Gugny]

6 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I've defended Taylor against undue criticism.........if he's back as a bridge for the guy they draft in the first round........and if they actually put him in a position to succeed with some improved receiving personnel and obviously more favorable scheme/play calling...........then I am fine with one more year of TT.

 

He had Watkins, Woods, Clay and Goodwin AND McCoy as a RB and receiver out of the backfield .... and he still sucked.  Not sure how much more improved you can ask for.  

 

Jared Goff did pretty well with a similar setup.

 

One more year of TT saves me $650 I'd spend going to a game.  If he's back, I won't bother.  And no ... I don't think the Bills give a ****, nor do I care.

Edited February 19, 2018 by Gugny

[Misterbluesky]

4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I've defended Taylor against undue criticism.........if he's back as a bridge for the guy they draft in the first round........and if they actually put him in a position to succeed with some improved receiving personnel and obviously more favorable scheme/play calling...........then I am fine with one more year of TT.

Thank You...I'm with you 100%.

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

He had Watkins, Woods, Clay and Goodwin AND McCoy as a RB and receiver out of the backfield .... and he still sucked.  Not sure how much more improved you can ask for.  

 

Jared Goff did pretty well with a similar setup.

 

I believe this is well covered in approximately 114 existing threads. 

 

But who’s counting......

[Gugny]

3 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

I believe this is well covered in approximately 114 existing threads. 

 

But who’s counting......

 

119.

[Misterbluesky]

1 minute ago, Gugny said:

 

He had Watkins, Woods, Clay and Goodwin AND McCoy as a RB and receiver out of the backfield .... and he still sucked.  Not sure how much more improved you can ask for.  

 

Jared Goff did pretty well with a similar setup.

Ryan's horrible defense put the offense in desperate modes to often then..Watkins was playing hurt as were Clay and Goodwin.Of course the opposing defenses were keying in on Shady out of the backfield..that's why the lb's seldom dropped back against us....no deep threats!!!!

[Gugny]

Just now, Misterbluesky said:

Ryan's horrible defense put the offense in desperate modes to often then..Watkins was playing hurt as were Clay and Goodwin.Of course the opposing defenses were keying in on Shady out of the backfield..that's why the lb's seldom dropped back against us....no deep threats!!!!

 

[Misterbluesky]

1 minute ago, Gugny said:

 

That's why Ryan was fired!

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

119.

 

There you go....I can never quite keep up!