Why we don't want to draft one of the top 4 QB

[BadLandsMeanie]

56 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

....

And by the way, it's a very reasonable possibility that Losman in the right circumstances might have become good. The Bills handled him very poorly. It was bad luck that he broke his leg but the year after that they should have had him compete with Bledsoe and keep developing if he lost that competition. They didn't. They gave him the starter job before the season, ready or not, and pissed off a lot of the vets. ....

 

Would he ever have been good? Dunno. But the Bills did a terrific job of minimizing the chances by handling him very poorly.

 

 

I just wanted to say how much I agree with you here. Handling of a QB is very important and the Bills did a rotten job. Many teams do a rotten job at that.

 

For Losman I have a specific memory. The year they handed him the starting job I went to 1/2 to 3/4 of the open training camp practices.

 

He had issues that it was plain to see he wasn't yet ready to be the starter.  Then between the close of camp and the season opener the reports were all that he was looking very good and had the wrinkles ironed out.

 

I remember being really surprised at the start of the season, that he had the exact same issues still. The same ones from camp, that they said he had cleaned up, were still there. What they had done you see was that they lied. 

 

Like I say I was surprised by that back then. But I learned something about football teams and front offices. 

 

 

 

[The Jokeman]

19 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

This is a post for all you "trade the farm and draft Darnold.  Or Rosen.  or Mayfield.  or Allen.  Just, one of those TOP GUYS!

No.  Don't.  If there's one guy you really think is worth it and you can trade up and get him, Do It.  But don't do it just because one of those guys must be best.

 

Why not? Because, Draft History.

 

What Draft History says is that there may be 1-4 good QB in this draft class -  BUT THEY ARE VERY UNLIKELY INDEED TO BE DRAFTED IN THAT ORDER.

 

I looked at the drafts from 2016-2012.  I previously used 3 numerical criteria correlated to winning, to sort drafted QB as "yes" or "no".  Now I summed the criteria and sorted the "yes" QB drafted in Rounds 1-5 according to that numerical value.  (The point is to have some objective performance criteria over a guy's career and not be swayed by reputation/draft position.  Most will splutter and go but but but at some point...go look at the guy's whole performance, 'K?)

 

The criteria used were completion %/10 (to put in the same numeric scale), Y/A, and TD/INT ratio.

 

Here are the rankings, THE ORDER IN WHICH THE QB WAS DRAFTED, and his draft position, going back class by class:

2016: Prescott (8th QB, 4th round, Pick 126), Goff (1st QB, Rd 1 Pick 1), Wentz (2nd QB, Rd 1 Pick 2)

2015: Mariota (2nd, Rd 1 Pick 2) Winston (1st, Rd Pick 1)

2014: Garoppolo (5th QB, Rd 2 Pick 62), Derek Carr (4th QB, Rd 2 Pick 36),  [both these guys fail 1 criteria: Teddy Bridgewater (2nd QB, Rd 1 Pick 32), Blake Bortles (1st QB, Rd 1 Pick 1)]

2013: no "yes" hits.  Glennon scores highest (3rd QB, Rd 3 Pick 73)

2012: Wilson (6th QB, Rd 3 Pick 75),  Cousins (8th QB, Rd 4, Pick 102) Griffin (2nd QB, Rd 1 Pick 2) Foles (7th QB, Rd 3 Pick 88) Luck (1st QB, Rd 1 Pick 1) Tannehill (3rd QB, Rd 1 Pick 8)

 

You can argue with the details (Griffin's data is biased by his 1st 2 years, Luck's is impacted by his 2015 and rookie seasons) and if everyone gets healthy and younger QB keep developing, the details may change in 3 years.

 

The overall point won't change:

1) the odds of getting a good QB are highest in the first 2 picks of the draft

2) there are still good QB to be had after that - but the odds are very much against them falling in the order drafted.  It may not be a mistake to take the #3 or even #4 QB in the draft - but you better do it based upon a careful evaluation of his talent, not because "gotta getta QB and the 1st round is where it's at!" 

 

That's how you draft JP Losman when just maybe you'd have been better off drafting Steve Jackson and picking up Matt Schaub in the 3rd. 

 

I'm not the professional football talent evaluator.  What's important is that

1) we have first-rate football talent evaluation in place, and continually work to improve our talent evaluation and scouting

2) they be free to do their job, unhindered by any input/interference from marketing or ownership

3) they take a shot at a guy they like, and if he isn't "all that", keep taking shots in subsequent years.

 

So please don't have a cow if the Bills trade up to #8 pre-draft and then don't draft a QB (because the guy they liked went sooner), or because they pass on the Wonderboy all the Pundits rated as #1 or #3 in favor of a 3rd round pick. 

 

Because there is an element of chance, and history says that the QB are unlikely to wind up being drafted in the order of their eventual NFL performance.

 

Typically high QBs don't make instant impacts because the teams choosing them have several holes besides QB as a problem. It's why I feel that most "franchise" QBs are made and not born. Everyone cites guys like Brady and Wilson and Prescott as why it's unwise to take a guy early. Yet ask yourself this were these QBs great on their own or helped by surrounding casts? As to me I often wonder if Wilson was drafted in Round 1 would he had the same success had the Seahawks not gotten Irvin and Wagner two picks before him in the same draft or never acquired Marshawn Lynch. The Patriots lost a Super Bowl two years prior to Brady starting. Prescott was on an above average Cowboy team when it came to RB and offensive line. Th Rams and Eagles moved up to get Goff and Wentz respectively. That's why I think the Bills be wise to make the move up for a QB now, as yes we have other needs yet we do have some good building blocks including McCoy, Benjamin, Clay, Dawkins on offense and our defense has shown it can bend but don't break. 

Edited February 19, 2018 by The Jokeman

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Typically high QBs don't make instant impacts because the teams choosing them have several holes besides QB as a problem. It's why I feel that most "franchise" QBs are made and not born. Everyone cites guys like Brady and Wilson and Prescott as why it's unwise to take a guy early. Yet ask yourself this were these QBs great on their own or helped by surrounding casts? As to me I often wonder if Wilson was drafted in Round 1 would he had the same success had the Seahawks not gotten Irvin and Wagner two picks before him in the same draft or never acquired Marshawn Lynch. The Patriots lost a Super Bowl two years prior to Brady starting. Prescott was on an above average Cowboy team when it came to RB and offensive line. Th Rams and Eagles moved up to get Goff and Wentz respectively. That's why I think the Bills be wise to make the move up for a QB now, as yes we have other needs yet we do have some good building blocks including McCoy, Benjamin, Clay, Dawkins on offense and our defense has shown it can bend but don't break. 

 

It's a very fair point that you and others have made that the QB's team environment, and the development he receives, play a big role in his success.

 

Just to be clear, my point is NOT that one shouldn't "take a guy early".  If the Bills see 1 or 2 QB they believe could be "The Man", I'd be happy if they put on a full court press to draft up and take him. 

 

That said, most QB taken at the top 2 picks since 2011 (1st year of the new CBA) have had a pretty immediate impact on the team's success - within 1-2 years.  Sometimes that success has not been sustained, either because of QB injuries or because the team failed to, as you point out, put and keep the right surrounding cast in place.

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Yes, sure.  But it's far less likely.  From pick #5 back through the top of the 2nd round, the odds are about 20-30% (less than half of what they are for the top 2 picks)

 

To me, the emphasis is on "ONE of the top 4 QB".   I see far too many posts "I would be happy if the Bills draft Darnold or Mayfield or Jackson or Allen" (rinse and repeat with different names).

 

 

 

But the reason people are saying that, I think, is because they have some trust in OBD to correctly identify a guy who would fit the system and be good enough to thrive in it. Not that they believe necessarily that all four are going to be franchise guys.

[mjt328]

Not sure what the OP is saying here.  I don't think ANYONE is suggesting the Bills draft a player they don't like. 

 

The assumption is, the Bills are going to rank the top QBs in a relatively similar fashion to other teams.

Of course, some teams will put higher value on things like height and arm strength, causing them to rank guys like Josh Allen higher and guys like Baker Mayfield lower.  Some may see the athletic value of Lamar Jackson and rank him higher than others.  Character may be a red flag when some teams consider Josh Rosen.  But generally speaking, you can probably assume that most teams won't be ranking Sam Darnold as a 5th Round pick or Luke Falk as the best prospect in the draft.

 

For all of the grief media/fans give them, NFL scouts are not idiots.  They know what physical attributes give a player the best chance of success.  They know how to judge a player's mechanics and accuracy, to determine how much work he will need to get better at the NFL level.  It's not an exact science, but a study of probability.  Despite all the high-profile QB busts that we can all name (Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell, etc.), history shows that the vast majority of successes come within the Top 5-10 and decrease sharply after that point.  You have the once in a lifetime Tom Brady 6th Round shocker, along with HUNDREDS of Day 3 quarterbacks that amounted to absolutely nothing.

 

 

 

The real debate among fans, is how much the Bills should sacrifice to get one of the prospects they DO LIKE.

 

Some fans are insistent that we wait until a "flawless Andrew Luck-caliber prospect" falls in our lap.  Some fans are reluctant to part with extra picks, as long as we have any other weak points on the roster.  Some fans are convinced that the draft is a crap-shoot, and we have just as good a chance landing our guy in the 2nd-5th Rounds.  I think all of these philosophies will keep us stuck in the cycle of mediocrity that has plagued us since Jim Kelly retired.

 

The Buffalo Bills biggest problem is an UNWILLINGNESS to take a chance.  Most experts say this draft has 3-5 strong QB prospects, which twice as much as most draft classes.  Our front office has 4 picks in the first two rounds, which is twice as much as every other year.  We've ended the drought, and exhausted the opportunity needed to see what Tyrod Taylor can offer.  THIS IS THE TIME TO TAKE THE CHANCE.

 

 

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

59 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

I just wanted to say how much I agree with you here. Handling of a QB is very important and the Bills did a rotten job. Many teams do a rotten job at that.

 

For Losman I have a specific memory. The year they handed him the starting job I went to 1/2 to 3/4 of the open training camp practices.

 

He had issues that it was plain to see he wasn't yet ready to be the starter.  Then between the close of camp and the season opener the reports were all that he was looking very good and had the wrinkles ironed out.

 

I remember being really surprised at the start of the season, that he had the exact same issues still. The same ones from camp, that they said he had cleaned up, were still there. What they had done you see was that they lied. 

 

Like I say I was surprised by that back then. But I learned something about football teams and front offices. 

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting.

 

PR is a curse on society.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

I just wanted to say how much I agree with you here. Handling of a QB is very important and the Bills did a rotten job. Many teams do a rotten job at that.

 

For Losman I have a specific memory. The year they handed him the starting job I went to 1/2 to 3/4 of the open training camp practices.

 

He had issues that it was plain to see he wasn't yet ready to be the starter.  Then between the close of camp and the season opener the reports were all that he was looking very good and had the wrinkles ironed out.

 

I remember being really surprised at the start of the season, that he had the exact same issues still. The same ones from camp, that they said he had cleaned up, were still there. What they had done you see was that they lied. 

 

Like I say I was surprised by that back then. But I learned something about football teams and front offices.

 

It seems to be SOP.  Weren't we told:

2017

1) preseason was Dennison purposely stretching and developing Tyrod, and didn't reflect what we'd see during the season

2) Tyrod had grown and developed during preseason

Then of course the reg. season rolled in with Dennison running exactly the same plays that Tyrod couldn't run during preseason, and only slowly adjusted

 

2016

1) EJM had really developed on the scout team during the season and was now able to do everything he was supposed to do

Then of course in the last game of the season it was clear the answer was "um, No"

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

58 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

Not sure what the OP is saying here.  I don't think ANYONE is suggesting the Bills draft a player they don't like. 

 

Agreed, but I do see a lot of folks seeming to suggest that the Bills should like one of the pundit-consensus top 4-5 QB (and do whatever it takes to draft one)

 

58 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

history shows that the vast majority of successes come within the Top 5-10 and decrease sharply after that point.

 

Actually, that's part of the OP point - no, that's not what history shows.

 

History shows that the vast majority of QB draft successes come within the TOP 2 PICKS, decrease sharply after that point, then hold relatively steady down through the top of the 2nd round.

 

Top 2 picks: 50-65%

Pick 3-4 (small number): 33%

Pick 5-10 (small number): 20%

Pick 11-20: 30%

2nd round: 20%

 

 

[BringBackOrton]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

It is the former we are addressing.  The latter is a straw man.  I would NOT be happy if the Bills draft Darnold or Mayfield or Jackson or Allen, that's the point, and I don't think any one else should be either.

If GB or Bandit think that those guys could be QB1 or QB2 in other years, then I disagree.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

25 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

If GB or Bandit think that those guys could be QB1 or QB2 in other years, then I disagree.

 

Go for it

[4merper4mer]

On February 18, 2018 at 4:48 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

This is a post for all you "trade the farm and draft Darnold.  Or Rosen.  or Mayfield.  or Allen.  Just, one of those TOP GUYS!

No.  Don't.  If there's one guy you really think is worth it and you can trade up and get him, Do It.  But don't do it just because one of those guys must be best.

 

Why not? Because, Draft History.

 

What Draft History says is that there may be 1-4 good QB in this draft class -  BUT THEY ARE VERY UNLIKELY INDEED TO BE DRAFTED IN THAT ORDER.

 

I looked at the drafts from 2016-2012.  I previously used 3 numerical criteria correlated to winning, to sort drafted QB as "yes" or "no".  Now I summed the criteria and sorted the "yes" QB drafted in Rounds 1-5 according to that numerical value.  (The point is to have some objective performance criteria over a guy's career and not be swayed by reputation/draft position.  Most will splutter and go but but but at some point...go look at the guy's whole performance, 'K?)

 

The criteria used were completion %/10 (to put in the same numeric scale), Y/A, and TD/INT ratio.

 

Here are the rankings, THE ORDER IN WHICH THE QB WAS DRAFTED, and his draft position, going back class by class:

2016: Prescott (8th QB, 4th round, Pick 126), Goff (1st QB, Rd 1 Pick 1), Wentz (2nd QB, Rd 1 Pick 2)

2015: Mariota (2nd, Rd 1 Pick 2) Winston (1st, Rd Pick 1)

2014: Garoppolo (5th QB, Rd 2 Pick 62), Derek Carr (4th QB, Rd 2 Pick 36),  [both these guys fail 1 criteria: Teddy Bridgewater (2nd QB, Rd 1 Pick 32), Blake Bortles (1st QB, Rd 1 Pick 1)]

2013: no "yes" hits.  Glennon scores highest (3rd QB, Rd 3 Pick 73)

2012: Wilson (6th QB, Rd 3 Pick 75),  Cousins (8th QB, Rd 4, Pick 102) Griffin (2nd QB, Rd 1 Pick 2) Foles (7th QB, Rd 3 Pick 88) Luck (1st QB, Rd 1 Pick 1) Tannehill (3rd QB, Rd 1 Pick 8)

 

You can argue with the details (Griffin's data is biased by his 1st 2 years, Luck's is impacted by his 2015 and rookie seasons) and if everyone gets healthy and younger QB keep developing, the details may change in 3 years.

 

The overall point won't change:

1) the odds of getting a good QB are highest in the first 2 picks of the draft

2) there are still good QB to be had after that - but the odds are very much against them falling in the order drafted.  It may not be a mistake to take the #3 or even #4 QB in the draft - but you better do it based upon a careful evaluation of his talent, not because "gotta getta QB and the 1st round is where it's at!" 

 

That's how you draft JP Losman when just maybe you'd have been better off drafting Steve Jackson and picking up Matt Schaub in the 3rd. 

 

I'm not the professional football talent evaluator.  What's important is that

1) we have first-rate football talent evaluation in place, and continually work to improve our talent evaluation and scouting

2) they be free to do their job, unhindered by any input/interference from marketing or ownership

3) they take a shot at a guy they like, and if he isn't "all that", keep taking shots in subsequent years.

 

So please don't have a cow if the Bills trade up to #8 pre-draft and then don't draft a QB (because the guy they liked went sooner), or because they pass on the Wonderboy all the Pundits rated as #1 or #3 in favor of a 3rd round pick. 

 

Because there is an element of chance, and history says that the QB are unlikely to wind up being drafted in the order of their eventual NFL performance.

 

Although you have buried it in a pile of text, you have dared to speak ill of Kim Jung QB.  You must never do this.  

[Zerovoltz]

.....It probalby will be a kind of weak point due to his performance thus far in a somewhat small sample size, but an example of a team trading up to go get someone, anyone, becuase, hey we have to our QB situation sucks...would be the Texans last year.  Some speculative reports suggested that they were more or less directed by the owner to go up and get Watson once Trubisky and Mahomes were off the board....reason being that owner wasn't going into yet another year with no QB he could sell to the fan base....Watson was a name, and in the time he was on the field, did put up some decent numbers and exciting play...before getting hurt...so jury still kind of out considering the whole picture including the injury.  ....

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

.....It probalby will be a kind of weak point due to his performance thus far in a somewhat small sample size, but an example of a team trading up to go get someone, anyone, becuase, hey we have to our QB situation sucks...would be the Texans last year.  Some speculative reports suggested that they were more or less directed by the owner to go up and get Watson once Trubisky and Mahomes were off the board....reason being that owner wasn't going into yet another year with no QB he could sell to the fan base....Watson was a name, and in the time he was on the field, did put up some decent numbers and exciting play...before getting hurt...so jury still kind of out considering the whole picture including the injury.  ....

 

Except Watson was always the first name on their board as we have discussed.  The Mahomes trade up in front of them did affect it though.... because they were comfortable enough with Mahomes as their #2 guy (they didn't like Trubisky) that they were hoping to be able to sit at their spot and take Watson or if he was gone Mahomes.  Once Mahomes was off the board they were then no longer willing to risk it. You can continue to put stock in your speculative reports if you like. I'll go with John McClain and Peter King.  And they will be proved right in the long run.  Deshaun Watson is a stud.  

[Zerovoltz]

42 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Except Watson was always the first name on their board as we have discussed.  The Mahomes trade up in front of them did affect it though.... because they were comfortable enough with Mahomes as their #2 guy (they didn't like Trubisky) that they were hoping to be able to sit at their spot and take Watson or if he was gone Mahomes.  Once Mahomes was off the board they were then no longer willing to risk it. You can continue to put stock in your speculative reports if you like. I'll go with John McClain and Peter King.  And they will be proved right in the long run.  Deshaun Watson is a stud.  

 

I don't know who John McClain is if he isn't slaying bad guys at Nakatomi plaza.....but Peter King?  Come on...that guy is living off of reputation at this point.  I will concede the version of events you describe is quite convievable....I don't think the Texans liked Trubisky.  I don't think the Chiefs liked Trubisky.  We know the Browns didn't like Trubisky or Watson.  .....Watson looked good in the games he played....sad to see he suffered that injury..I'd like to see more....will be interesting to watch how that goes over the next couple of seasons for sure.

[Tatonka68]

WHY WE WANT TO DRAFT ONE OF THE TOP 4 QB's. 

Tyrod Taylor, EJ Manuel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jeff Tuel, Kyle Orton, Trent Edwards, Kelly Holcomb, JP Losman, Thad Lewis, Drew Bledsoe, Rob Johnson, Doug Flutie, Todd Collins.

 

WHO IN THERE RIGHT MIND WANTS TO ADD TO THAT LIST. NOT DRAFTING A TOP 4 QB HAS BEEN EXTREMELY SUCCESSFUL.

[SoTier]

23 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

WHY WE WANT TO DRAFT ONE OF THE TOP 4 QB's. 

Tyrod Taylor, EJ Manuel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jeff Tuel, Kyle Orton, Trent Edwards, Kelly Holcomb, JP Losman, Thad Lewis, Drew Bledsoe, Rob Johnson, Doug Flutie, Todd Collins.

 

WHO IN THERE RIGHT MIND WANTS TO ADD TO THAT LIST. NOT DRAFTING A TOP 4 QB HAS BEEN EXTREMELY SUCCESSFUL.

 

AND DRAFTING A TOP 4 QB HAS PROVEN TO BE EXTREMELY SUCCESSFUL, TOO!

• Kyle Boller and Rex Grossman were the 3rd and 4th top QBs in 2003.
• JP Losman was the 4th of the top four QBs taken in 2004. 
• Vince Young and Matt Leinart were the top two QBs taken in 2006. 
• JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn were the top two QBs taken in 2007.  
• Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman were the top 2 and top 3 QBs taken in 2009. 
• Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder were the  2nd, 3rd, and 4th top QBs taken in 2011. 
• Robert Griffin III and Brandon Weeden were the 2nd and 4th QB taken in 2012. 
• EJ Manuel was the top QB taken in 2013.

Don't let reality intrude on your fantasy of the Bills drafting a QB Jesus.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Tatonka68 said:

WHY WE WANT TO DRAFT ONE OF THE TOP 4 QB's. 

Tyrod Taylor, EJ Manuel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jeff Tuel, Kyle Orton, Trent Edwards, Kelly Holcomb, JP Losman, Thad Lewis, Drew Bledsoe, Rob Johnson, Doug Flutie, Todd Collins.

 

WHO IN THERE RIGHT MIND WANTS TO ADD TO THAT LIST. NOT DRAFTING A TOP 4 QB HAS BEEN EXTREMELY SUCCESSFUL.

 

I freely and gladly present to Tatonka68 the Mellifluous Missing the Point Medal

 

You unintentionally reinforce the actual point with these guys:

EJ Manuel: drafted 1st overall, (thought to have been perhaps 3rd or 4th QB or later in another year

JP Losman: 4th QB drafted in the 1st

 

The point is, just because a guy is one of the first 4 QB drafted does not make him

1) a good NFL QB

2) the best or one of the best QB in the draft

 

They should look very carefully at the QB, and if there are one or two they like, make every reasonable effort to trade up for him.  But if they can't, or the price is too high, that doesn't mean they should draft any of the 4 or "they're not in their right mind".  There may be a later guy they like better for their own reasons - that's fine.  And then try again another year. 

 

ID'ing and acquiring a good QB should be a process.  With the failure rate of even top-2 pick QB (and injuries to QB who look good) this should not be looked at a single event.  Even for teams who do draft a top QB, it's not necessarily a single shot or a single pathway (Foles-Bradford-Wentz for the Eagles with a side of Chase Daniels)

 

PS I had no idea that Todd Collins had stayed in the NFL until 2010, did you?

Edited February 20, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[xRUSHx]

First round QBs in the SB:

 

Joe Nameth

Len Dawson

Earl Morrall 

Bob Griese

Bill Kilmer

Trent Dilfer

Kerry Collins

Craig Mortan

Jim Plunkett

Terry Bradshaw

John Elway

Jim Kelly

Troy Aikmen

Dan Marino

Jim McMahon 

Tony Eason

Phil Simms

Doug Williams

Steve Young

Drew Bledsoe

Steve Mcnair

Donavan McNabb

Ben Rothlisburger

Payton Manning

Aaron Rogers

Eli Manning

Cam Newton

Matt Ryan

 

 

 

[reddogblitz]

On 2/19/2018 at 4:59 AM, ShadyBillsFan said:

Give me the guy who knows how to stand tall in the pocket.  

 

Give me the guy who knows how to walk tall in the pocket.

6 hours ago, xRUSHx said:

Craig Mortan

 

Craig Morton

 

In Marv's book, he says Craig was the best athlete he coached.

Edited February 20, 2018 by reddogblitz

[Tatonka68]

On 2/20/2018 at 9:22 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I freely and gladly present to Tatonka68 the Mellifluous Missing the Point Medal

 

You unintentionally reinforce the actual point with these guys:

EJ Manuel: drafted 1st overall, (thought to have been perhaps 3rd or 4th QB or later in another year

JP Losman: 4th QB drafted in the 1st

 

The point is, just because a guy is one of the first 4 QB drafted does not make him

1) a good NFL QB

2) the best or one of the best QB in the draft

 

They should look very carefully at the QB, and if there are one or two they like, make every reasonable effort to trade up for him.  But if they can't, or the price is too high, that doesn't mean they should draft any of the 4 or "they're not in their right mind".  There may be a later guy they like better for their own reasons - that's fine.  And then try again another year. 

 

ID'ing and acquiring a good QB should be a process.  With the failure rate of even top-2 pick QB (and injuries to QB who look good) this should not be looked at a single event.  Even for teams who do draft a top QB, it's not necessarily a single shot or a single pathway (Foles-Bradford-Wentz for the Eagles with a side of Chase Daniels)

 

PS I had no idea that Todd Collins had stayed in the NFL until 2010, did you?

So you would rather do nothing because your afraid to fail. I say it is worth the gamble and chickens are only good at KFC. Either Superbowl or bust.If bust draft another top 4 QB.

 

Edited February 21, 2018 by Tatonka68