Why we don't want to draft one of the top 4 QB

[SouthNYfan]

18 minutes ago, bigK14094 said:

Based on this line of thinking....top 4 is 75% likely, the Bills missed the boat the year they drafted Darius.......of  course, but, a QB there was the answer.

 

Who was the answer??

 

Gabbert was the best QB taken, Dalton later on.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

LOL, I'll play.

NEVER draft a QB with the 22nd pick!!!!!!!!!

 

2014	1	22	Johnny Manziel	QB	Texas A&M
2012	1	22	Brandon Weeden	QB	Oklahoma State
2007	1	22	Brady Quinn	QB	Notre Dame
2004	1	22	J.P. Losman	QB	Tulane
2003	1	22	Rex Grossman	QB	Florida

 

But Pick #24 is OK

[ColoradoBills]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

But Pick #24 is OK

Yes it is.

Stay away from 25 though!  LOL

[Hapless Bills Fan]

30 minutes ago, bigK14094 said:

Based on this line of thinking....top 4 is 75% likely, the Bills missed the boat the year they drafted Darius.......of  course, but, a QB there was the answer.

 

I still want to know what criterion is used for that.  I Don't Think So.

 

That's misunderstanding the line of thinking...if there's a QB you rate that high, sure, go for it. 

Drafting someone who you don't have that high, doesn't give you better odds.

 

Which of these guys would you like to have had at #3?  Newton was gone

 

Rk	Year	Rnd	Pick		Pos	DrAge	Tm	From	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	College/Univ
1	2011	1	1	Cam Newton	QB	22	CAR	2011	2017	1	3	7	95	109	108	62-45-1	2001	3420	25074	158	94	828	4320	54	Auburn	College Stats
2	2011	1	8	Jake Locker	QB	23	TEN	2011	2014	0	0	1	15	30	23	9-14-0	408	709	4967	27	22	95	644	5	Washington	College Stats
3	2011	1	10	Blaine Gabbert	QB	21	JAX	2011	2017	0	0	3	14	48	45	11-34-0	781	1397	8437	44	43	171	631	3	Missouri	College Stats
4	2011	1	12	Christian Ponder	QB	23	MIN	2011	2014	0	0	3	22	38	36	14-21-1	632	1057	6658	38	36	126	639	7	Florida St.	College Stats
5	2011	2	35	Andy Dalton	QB	23	CIN	2011	2017	0	3	7	71	109	109	63-44-2	2217	3556	25534	167	93	346	1049	18	TCU	College Stats
6	2011	2	36	Colin Kaepernick	QB	23	SFO	2011	2016	0	0	4	45	69	58	28-30-0	1011	1692	12271	72	30	375	2300	13	Nevada	College Stats
7	2011	3	74	Ryan Mallett	QB	23	NWE	2012	2017	0	0	0	4	21	8	3-5-0	190	345	1835	9	10	28	-5	1	Arkansas	College Stats

 

16 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

Who was the answer??

Gabbert was the best QB taken, Dalton later on.

 

"No" to the deer-in-the-headlights statue (Gabbert); Locker >> Gabbert (neither good)

[SoCal Deek]

Having an 'extra' First Round pick is a luxury....and a welcome one after giving up one for Sammy.  The Bills need to take a swing at a QB there and don't look back.  Nothing ventured nothing gained.

[Cripple Creek]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

This is a post for all you "trade the farm and draft Darnold.  Or Rosen.  or Mayfield.  or Allen.  Just, one of those TOP GUYS!

No.  Don't.  If there's one guy you really think is worth it and you can trade up and get him, Do It.  But don't do it just because one of those guys must be best.

 

So you're saying only trade up if you think you're getting a franchise QB?  

[Senth]

We will trade up ....... the only question is ..... how far? $$$$$$$$$$$

[frostbitmic]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

LOL, I'll play.

NEVER draft a QB with the 22nd pick!!!!!!!!!

 

2014	1	22	Johnny Manziel	QB	Texas A&M
2012	1	22	Brandon Weeden	QB	Oklahoma State
2007	1	22	Brady Quinn	QB	Notre Dame
2004	1	22	J.P. Losman	QB	Tulane
2003	1	22	Rex Grossman	QB	Florida

I went back as far as the 1960's and didn't find a single QB drafted at #21... Will the Bills be the 1st to try it ?

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

I went back as far as the 1960's and didn't find a single QB drafted at #21... Will the Bills be the 1st to try it ?

Well than....maybe that's what we've been doing wrong!

[SouthNYfan]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

"No" to the deer-in-the-headlights statue (Gabbert); Locker >> Gabbert (neither good)

 

Agreed on your whole post

I was agreeing with you, the guy said that was the year @#3 , but there wasn't much avail with Cam gone

 

Btw locker was not terrible, he was starting to show promise, but injuries derailed his career.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 hours ago, Cripple Creek said:

So you're saying only trade up if you think you're getting a franchise QB?  

 

Oh, for sure.  I'm sure McBeane have 1 or 2 guys they evaluate as "worth it" and are willing to go hard for

 

I'm saying fans should not be all "just trade up as far as you can and draft whatever QB of the ones the pundits rate highly is left"

There may be 3 or 4 good QB in the draft but they are truly very unlikely to be drafted in that order in the 1st. 

 

 

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[ColoradoBills]

12 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

I went back as far as the 1960's and didn't find a single QB drafted at #21... Will the Bills be the 1st to try it ?

 

10 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Well than....maybe that's what we've been doing wrong!

 

I use Pro Football Reference for all my info.

No QB has ever been drafted at #21.

 

So I guess SoCal this could be fate and our next HOF QB.

 

20, 21, 29, 30, 31 are the only picks never to have a QB.

Of course those last 3 have had the least amount of draft years.

[billsredneck1]

3 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Another year of Tyrod . . . well, I'll have to increase the alcohol budget.  OBD, save the liver, please.

it would be like a flashback of whaley's "we're all in on ej".....goodbye liver

[Thurman#1]

Some drafts are deep. Some are shallow. Some are deep and shallow at certain positions.

 

Like the unbelievably deep WR draft in 2014. The year we traded up for Sammy Watkins. And later end up with another guy from the same draft, Kelvin Benjamin.

 

This year is a deep QB draft. That's not an opinion I came up with myself. It's what the GMs are saying, the pundits, everyone. Those four or five drafts you looked at ... they weren't deep at QB. This one is.

 

And of course a GM should pick the one or two or three guys he thinks he wants, that will fit the team and the scheme and the situation. Of course you shouldn't just grab anyone from the pile. But the reason this draft is different is that it has a bigger bunch of guys with a better shot at success than you have in your usual draft class.

 

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by Thurman#1

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

This is a post for all you "trade the farm and draft Darnold.  Or Rosen.  or Mayfield.  or Allen.  Just, one of those TOP GUYS!

No.  Don't.  If there's one guy you really think is worth it and you can trade up and get him, Do It.  But don't do it just because one of those guys must be best.

 

Why not? Because, Draft History.

 

What Draft History says is that there may be 1-4 good QB in this draft class -  BUT THEY ARE VERY UNLIKELY INDEED TO BE DRAFTED IN THAT ORDER.

 

I looked at the drafts from 2016-2012.  I previously used 3 numerical criteria correlated to winning, to sort drafted QB as "yes" or "no".  Now I summed the criteria and sorted the "yes" QB drafted in Rounds 1-5 according to that numerical value.  (The point is to have some objective performance criteria over a guy's career and not be swayed by reputation/draft position.  Most will splutter and go but but but at some point...go look at the guy's whole performance, 'K?)

 

The criteria used were completion %/10 (to put in the same numeric scale), Y/A, and TD/INT ratio.

 

Here are the rankings, THE ORDER IN WHICH THE QB WAS DRAFTED, and his draft position, going back class by class:

2016: Prescott (8th QB, 4th round, Pick 126), Goff (1st QB, Rd 1 Pick 1), Wentz (2nd QB, Rd 1 Pick 2)

2015: Mariota (2nd, Rd 1 Pick 2) Winston (1st, Rd Pick 1)

2014: Garoppolo (5th QB, Rd 2 Pick 62), Derek Carr (4th QB, Rd 2 Pick 36),  [both these guys fail 1 criteria: Teddy Bridgewater (2nd QB, Rd 1 Pick 32), Blake Bortles (1st QB, Rd 1 Pick 1)]

2013: no "yes" hits.  Glennon scores highest (3rd QB, Rd 3 Pick 73)

2012: Wilson (6th QB, Rd 3 Pick 75),  Cousins (8th QB, Rd 4, Pick 102) Griffin (2nd QB, Rd 1 Pick 2) Foles (7th QB, Rd 3 Pick 88) Luck (1st QB, Rd 1 Pick 1) Tannehill (3rd QB, Rd 1 Pick 8)

 

You can argue with the details (Griffin's data is biased by his 1st 2 years, Luck's is impacted by his 2015 and rookie seasons) and if everyone gets healthy and younger QB keep developing, the details may change in 3 years.

 

The overall point won't change:

1) the odds of getting a good QB are highest in the first 2 picks of the draft

2) there are still good QB to be had after that - but the odds are very much against them falling in the order drafted.  It may not be a mistake to take the #3 or even #4 QB in the draft - but you better do it based upon a careful evaluation of his talent, not because "gotta getta QB and the 1st round is where it's at!" 

 

That's how you draft JP Losman when just maybe you'd have been better off drafting Steve Jackson and picking up Matt Schaub in the 3rd. 

 

I'm not the professional football talent evaluator.  What's important is that

1) we have first-rate football talent evaluation in place, and continually work to improve our talent evaluation and scouting

2) they be free to do their job, unhindered by any input/interference from marketing or ownership

3) they take a shot at a guy they like, and if he isn't "all that", keep taking shots in subsequent years.

 

So please don't have a cow if the Bills trade up to #8 pre-draft and then don't draft a QB (because the guy they liked went sooner), or because they pass on the Wonderboy all the Pundits rated as #1 or #3 in favor of a 3rd round pick. 

 

Because there is an element of chance, and history says that the QB are unlikely to wind up being drafted in the order of their eventual NFL performance.

 

 

If you're hearing the Bills are asking around for trade partners at the top of this draft it's for good reason, this is one of the deepest QB drafts in awhile and the Bills are in the market for one, from what I'm reading they'll be gone by the 17th pick of the draft and probably before (Allen, Rosen,Darnold, Mayfield and Jackson). This is the year to go up and get their guy, I'm going to guess they've done their due diligence on these guys and have them ranked where they'd take them. I doubt the Rams or Eagles are pissed what they gave up to get Goff and Wentz. 

[ALF]

With other teams wanting to trade up for a QB  it will be an expensive bidding war this draft. It's going to take the farm to get into the top 4.  If the scouting staff is convinced on a player go for it. 

 

Where Cousins lands and other free agents like the 3 Viking QBs might loosen things up.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Give me the guy who knows how to stand tall in the pocket.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Some drafts are deep. Some are shallow. Some are deep and shallow at certain positions.

 

Like the unbelievably deep WR draft in 2014. The year we traded up for Sammy Watkins. And later end up with another guy from the same draft, Kelvin Benjamin.

 

This year is a deep QB draft. That's not an opinion I came up with myself. It's what the GMs are saying, the pundits, everyone. Those four or five drafts you looked at ... they weren't deep at QB. This one is.

 

And of course a GM should pick the one or two or three guys he thinks he wants, that will fit the team and the scheme and the situation. Of course you shouldn't just grab anyone from the pile. But the reason this draft is different is that it has a bigger bunch of guys with a better shot at success than you have in your usual draft class.

 

I don't see how anyone could say that "the four or five drafts I looked at...they weren't deep at QB"

Some were shallow (eg 2013).  But 2012 was certainly regarded (and spoken about at the time) as being deep in QB talent, and 2014 had almost as much hype.

 

People always think a specific draft is super-deep in some position and all the cream will rise to the top, and it seldom works that way - some later players always wind up outworking or out-talenting the "cant miss" prospects who were drafted above them and were hampered by injury or insufficient "want it" and work ethic.

 

The closest thing to what folks are suggesting (a draft with 3-4 top QB likely to be drafted all in a row) would be 2004, featuring Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roeth, and JP Losman.   One of those guys had flags - for example, his completion percentage never broke 60% in a year where he saw significant playing time and he perhaps played a lower level of competition - but we traded up to draft him anyway.   Dammit, we needed a QB and it was a deep class! 

I could be wrong but I don't see this as a 2004 draft with several "can't miss" top prospects on the level of a Manning/Rivers/Roeth either.  There may be 2.

Edited February 19, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[BigBuff423]

I agree with the overall premise of this thread: pick YOUR guy, regardless of where in the Draft and be confident that the assessment is the tool, not the position in which he is Drafted. I am one who thinks Rudolph will be a very good QB, and certainly one the Bills could utilize to re-make their Offense beginning next year. I also believe Beane values the Draft more than FA, which is why I'm doubtful of the Cousins to Buffalo scenario, regardless of the money. 

 

IMHO, Beane and McD are reshaping the roster to be the identity they want, which is why I think Hughes, Taylor, Shady, Richie all go...and why it's possible Glenn goes, but now with a new OC and probably a new QB, they may keep him to help the young QB as one less changing part. 

 

I'm hoping the Bills stay put, or if they move up, it's a relatively short distance and NOT up to #2 overall or even #3 overall as I think it would take a king's ransom to do it, and this roster needs youth all over the field and they have a lot of departing FAs, which is a good thing IMO as well. 

 

Just to be clear, I really like Cousins and was vocal about it when he was Drafted, but at this current time where the roster is for the Bills and where the team is, I just don't see it. However, if I'm wrong and the Bills get him, of course I will be a fan because it's not like I want the man to fail, I just don't think it's a great idea to spend all that money when there are so many issues with the roster. Furthermore, I would hope the Bills see the strengths of the Draft, i.e. QB, and realize to use it to their advantage.

[Chuck Wagon]

Yeah, lets be conservative and draft the 8th best QB, it's worked great for the last 20 years.