Is Bradon Beane Playing The Compensatory Draft Pick Game?

[NoSaint]

14 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Here's a clear and extremely in-depth article on it. It's not quite as easy as suggested above.

 

https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/

 

For the purpose of message board banter, it really is just about as easy as the thread portrays though. ID qualifying signings based on how they left their last team and when they signed. Slot up gains vs losses. Take the average value and compare it to last years guys.

 

 

If you want to nail the exact round for all 32 picks handed out you might get very slight variations based the in depth process — but the bar napkin example provided will likely suffice in identifying the 31 of 32 recipients and get you 29 of them in the right round and the other 3 being guys on the edge bumping up or down a round or someone being right on the edge of qualifying 

 

Sometimes the incredibly simple and very good version is better for fan talk 

[artmalibu]

During the season aI started to hate the compensatory pick system because I was so tired of seeing threads that the bills should cut several contributing players for like a 3rd round pick while the playoff hut was very alive.  If playoff were off the table then why not. 

 

If a team is trying to gain comp picks then they are not trying to build a football team.   

[NoSaint]

3 minutes ago, artmalibu said:

During the season aI started to hate the compensatory pick system because I was so tired of seeing threads that the bills should cut several contributing players for like a 3rd round pick while the playoff hut was very alive.  If playoff were off the table then why not. 

 

If a team is trying to gain comp picks then they are not trying to build a football team.   

 

If you have two relatively equal options but one nets you a pick— I’d say that’s great team building to take the dude that gets you the pick.

 

im not cutting a true contributor mid season but if we are deciding between two depth linebackers that are very similar cost but ones an expiring contract and the other was cut— get the guy that was cut 

[26CornerBlitz]

Beane is on the record by stating he will be very cognizant of the compensatory pick formula when making decisions about what moves to make in Free Agency in 2018.  He said it was too late for him to do anything regarding this in 2017 since he was hired after Free Agent acqusitions had already been made.

[Estro]

8 hours ago, Logic said:

Yeah. McDermott totally botched it last year by coaching the Bills to the playoffs for the first time since 1999! What a loser! I'd so much rather have 101st pick in this coming draft!

I don't happen to think Patrick DiMarco, Vlad Ducasse, or Ryan Davis were worth forgoing the 2 mid round picks, do you?  You think those 3 were what put the Bills over the top?  You think the Bills could've signed comparable talent had they waited post June 1 or signed players that were cut or were those 3 UFAs must haves?

 

Think through your arguments before posting uninformed sarcastic stupidity.

 

If you don't think 3rd and 5th round picks are extremely valuable assets you're a dumber fan than most.

[TPS]

While Beane is cognizant of the formula, it will take a back seat to how they go about finding their QB. If they give up their draft capital to move up, then they will have fill a lot of holes in FA, so needs will trump comps.

[artmalibu]

11 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

If you have two relatively equal options but one nets you a pick— I’d say that’s great team building to take the dude that gets you the pick.

 

im not cutting a true contributor mid season but if we are deciding between two depth linebackers that are very similar cost but ones an expiring contract and the other was cut— get the guy that was cut 

 

Yes if all else is equal then grab the pick.  During the season the starting guard, leading TD catching WR and rotational DE would have needed to be cut to get a 3rd.  That talk is crazy when winning.  If the season was a lost cause then thats different.  

[BuffaloRush]

49 minutes ago, TPS said:

While Beane is cognizant of the formula, it will take a back seat to how they go about finding their QB. If they give up their draft capital to move up, then they will have fill a lot of holes in FA, so needs will trump comps.

 

Not really... if they sign guys that were cut as opposed to true free agents it doesn’t count against the formula.... or I believe if you sign a player after the FA period in May or June it also doesn’t count.

 

That’s why you can make the argument they botched it last year.  You could arguably find players with equal value to the team as a Patrick DiMarco, Vlad Duccasse, or Andre Davis later in the summer and still kept the comp picks.  There was no need to sign guys like that in FA

 

 

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Not really... if they sign guys that were cut as opposed to true free agents it doesn’t count against the formula.... or I believe if you sign a player after the FA period in May or June it also doesn’t count.

 

That’s why you can make the argument they botched it last year.  You could arguably find players with equal value to the team as a Patrick DiMarco, Vlad Duccasse, or Andre Davis later in the summer and still kept the comp picks.  There was no need to sign guys like that in FA

 

 

 

Depends on the position. Both what we have and what free agency offers. I suspect that last year was a much more reasonable year than this year to stockpile high value comps. 

 

We don’t have all that much walking out the door and should be anticipating bringing in some guys. 

 

Matthews, brown and Gaines are out - and we need to bring in quality players at all 3 of those spots (possibly multiple)— plus potentially RB2, QB, and both lines.

 

ill be annoyed if we sign a boring player for RB2 that counts against it while otherwise playing cards well— but I expect to need more than 3 quality signings and don’t think they will all have a comparable option that works for us and wants to come here etc...

[TPS]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Not really... if they sign guys that were cut as opposed to true free agents it doesn’t count against the formula.... or I believe if you sign a player after the FA period in May or June it also doesn’t count.

 

That’s why you can make the argument they botched it last year.  You could arguably find players with equal value to the team as a Patrick DiMarco, Vlad Duccasse, or Andre Davis later in the summer and still kept the comp picks.  There was no need to sign guys like that in FA

 

 

The issue is meeting needs this year. If they go the move up route for QB, then they will give up at least 3 of the first 4 picks, but they will have in the range of $35 mil for FAs to play with. They will certainly go after 2-3 mid-to-high level UFAs in this scenario. Comp picks are never, or never should be, the primary decision factor. 

[JerseyBills]

11 hours ago, Captain Murica said:

 

Yeah, he sure did. I mean he only replaced our “Star” CB with a cheaper and better fit to his system. Found us our future LT and OLB. 

Yea two of the highest paid positions and we now have rookie contracts on 2 studs , that's a winning formula.

 

2 hours ago, NoSaint said:

 

If you have two relatively equal options but one nets you a pick— I’d say that’s great team building to take the dude that gets you the pick.

 

im not cutting a true contributor mid season but if we are deciding between two depth linebackers that are very similar cost but ones an expiring contract and the other was cut— get the guy that was cut 

I agree. 

I just don't understand ppl talking about cutting Vlad during the season. Whether we agreed or not , he was our starting RG for Christ sake , during a playoff push. Ryan Davis also had a bigger impact as the year went on, Shaq injured . I'm fine with the moves or lack thereof we made

[LabattBlue]

If it is more important that we get compensatory picks instead of signing the best players for the 53 man roster, the Bills are in big trouble.

 

All this compensatory pick stuff is overblown.  If it works out that they get an extra pick, great.  If not, no big deal. I don't want Beane to forego signing players to improve the team, just so the Bills can have an extra 5th round pick that more or likely will be camp fodder.

[RochesterRob]

5 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

If it is more important that we get compensatory picks instead of signing the best players for the 53 man roster, the Bills are in big trouble.

 

All this compensatory pick stuff is overblown.  If it works out that they get an extra pick, great.  If not, no big deal. I don't want Beane to forego signing players to improve the team, just so the Bills can have an extra 5th round pick that more or likely will be camp fodder.

  Agreed.  The draft after the first 100 picks gets real sketchy and comp picks don't start normally until the end of the third round or pick 97.  If the homework has been done on a FA there should be less risk in going that route than a draft prospect.  I love draft picks but comps should be a function of no clear cut beneficial FA's.

[BakersBills]

They did blow the Comp picks this year, could’ve easily replaced the guys they needed to cut for the picks.

[Logic]

8 hours ago, joesixpack said:

 

Finally a post of yours I can be on board with 

We may have radically different politics, but it doesn't mean we can't share football opinions!

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I disagree with your disagreement about it being luck. There was a lot of luck involved I would argue.

 

Yeah, the Broncos were 2-0 when we beat them. In their first game of the year, Denver had beaten a Chargers team that lost its first four games and a Cowboys team that started at 2-3 and those two wins were only the Giants and Cardinals. That win looked a lot better at the time than it turned out to be.

 

Same with the Falcons win. Atlanta looked pretty good the first couple of games, but a bit weaker against the Lions and then we were lucky enough to see Julio Jones get injured in our game on top of having lost Sanu, Beasley and their RT, can't remember his name. After Julio's injury they only scored seven in a half and a bit more. Also, the Falcons lost to Miami the next week at home in Atlanta too.

 

The fact that you're boasting about a win over the Colts to me kinda sums up the whole thing.

 

I agree that McDermott did a fine job, but he also got very lucky with the schedule (opponents cumulative win-loss was well below even and we hit the better teams at very good times).

Meh. Agree to disagree, then.

You can only play who they put on your schedule. To that end, the only "lucky" thing that happened to the Bills was the Ravens losing. As for the Bills themselves, they beat who they needed to beat, when they needed to beat them. A big reason they got into the playoffs was their AFC win-loss record. Beating the Broncos, Raiders, Chiefs, Jets, Dolphins x2. Winning in Arrowhead isn't easy. Neither is winning in Atlanta. The Colts snowstorm game was no gimme, either. To whomever discounts that win just because the Colts stink, I think you're wrong. Weather like that evens the playing field, and the Bills played most of the game with their third string quarterback. As for the Falcons WR injuries...so what? How many of the Bills' losses over the years were discounted just because they had key players injured? How many games during the drought did the Bills play teams with injured stars and STILL lose?

The bottom line is that the Bills did what they needed to do in the AFC, won some tough games, overcame a dreadful mid-season stretch of bad football, rebounded, won their must-win week 17 game (never a gimme when it comes to the Bills!) and made the playoffs. I can't point to too many wins on their schedule that were lucky or flukey. They earned the wins they got. They won games that most if not all of the Bills teams of the drought era would lose. And a BIG reason they were able to do all this was their mindset, their preparation and, in short, the influence of their head coach. There's no other way to reasonably explain a roster like the Bills had making the playoffs. I didn't view many of our wins as lucky or flukey, either. They earned them.

You say luck. I say metal toughness and earned victories. Agree to disagree.

[Logic]

37 minutes ago, BakersBills said:

They did blow the Comp picks this year, could’ve easily replaced the guys they needed to cut for the picks.

Like their starting RG? Their kicker who won them multiple games? 

I think people underestimate the importance of some of the guys we would've needed to cut to the outcome of our season.

[baskingridgebillsfan]

I am all for playing the comp pick game but this is not the year to start. They don't have a lot of players team will pay for and they have a lot of fillable holes that free agency can solve.   Build the roster first and there will be plenty of years when you are forced to give up talent because you simply can't pay everyone . 

[BuffaloRush]

4 hours ago, Logic said:

Like their starting RG? Their kicker who won them multiple games? 

I think people underestimate the importance of some of the guys we would've needed to cut to the outcome of our season.

Haushka had some very good kicks and yes you can make the argument that he was a difference maker and Ducasse played fairly decent as a starter.  But how can you make the argument that Ryan Davis, Patrick DiMarco, and Andre Davis were significantly better than player which could have been signed post June 1.  In fact, some of those player might even have been available on June 1.  

 

That's the point here - the Bills appear to be unaware of the draft compensation formula and fortunately Beane is IS aware

[blacklabel]

The outrage displayed by some fans over not gaining comp picks has been a bit ridiculous. Comp picks aren't as valuable or important as some would like to believe. I think some people just wanna see them head into the draft with 12 picks. Know who else heads into the draft with 10 or 12 picks every year? Cleveland. How's that working out for them... 

 

And yes, I'm well aware that the comp picks can be used in a trade. Other than that, the odds of finding a starter any time after rounds three or four are pretty low. So what's the better option? Sign a few mid/lower tier vets with experience or take a few rookies who will need a season or two to even reach the level of said vets? At the end of the day, the argument for comp picks over signing suitable free agents to fill some spots doesn't hold that much weight. 

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, TPS said:

While Beane is cognizant of the formula, it will take a back seat to how they go about finding their QB. If they give up their draft capital to move up, then they will have fill a lot of holes in FA, so needs will trump comps.

 

 

You can fill holes in FA in ways that don't cost you comp picks. It's how the Pats have traditionally used FA, as well as Green Bay, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, etc.

 

Comp picks count, especially so now that they're tradeable. Smart teams value them and can work around losing them while still bringing in good (though not the top, most expensive) FAs.

 

 

1 hour ago, blacklabel said:

The outrage displayed by some fans over not gaining comp picks has been a bit ridiculous. Comp picks aren't as valuable or important as some would like to believe. I think some people just wanna see them head into the draft with 12 picks. Know who else heads into the draft with 10 or 12 picks every year? Cleveland. How's that working out for them... 

 

And yes, I'm well aware that the comp picks can be used in a trade. Other than that, the odds of finding a starter any time after rounds three or four are pretty low. So what's the better option? Sign a few mid/lower tier vets with experience or take a few rookies who will need a season or two to even reach the level of said vets? At the end of the day, the argument for comp picks over signing suitable free agents to fill some spots doesn't hold that much weight. 

 

 

The best teams in football, the ones who win consistently, disagree with you. But if it's any comfort, most of the others do go along with you. The best teams in football maximize their comp picks and lead the league when you start to look at two or three years or more all put together.

 

No, it's not the biggest piece of the puzzle. But it's one piece.

 

And again, it's not comp picks vs. getting suitable free agents. Some free agents don't hurt you on the comp pick formula. It's not an either-or. Smart teams can do both.

Edited February 19, 2018 by Thurman#1