Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 10, 2018 Posted April 10, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 2:42 AM, GreggTX said: I suspect it will be Rudolph or Jackson. Jackson has accuracy issues related to impatience. He rely's on arm strength and doesn't always get set before throwing. If that can be corrected, look out because he has everything else and can always add a few pounds. Fixing accuracy/footwork can be a thorny problem, though. From what I've read, Rudolph will be a good but not great NFL QB. He is pro ready, though. At least that's what I've read. I don't want to see us squander a ton of picks for Rosen. Too many question marks. All I know about Allen is that he only hit 53% of his passes. That's a major red flag. Rudolph's "pro ready" ness should be a major concern, if that's not what you've read. He plays in an "air raid" offense with a very simplified set of reads, and he has had the benefit of some great WR talent who can make a play on whatever he throws. I'm not saying he can't play in an NFL offense, I'm just saying that whatever he does at the whiteboard, he's going to have a learning curve in actual games.
Dr. Who Posted April 10, 2018 Posted April 10, 2018 14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Rudolph's "pro ready" ness should be a major concern, if that's not what you've read. He plays in an "air raid" offense with a very simplified set of reads, and he has had the benefit of some great WR talent who can make a play on whatever he throws. I'm not saying he can't play in an NFL offense, I'm just saying that whatever he does at the whiteboard, he's going to have a learning curve in actual games. So much smoke nowadays, I really don't know what is credible and what is not. Unlike most, I actually like all the top four, though Allen is the highest risk. My current best hope is Rosen falls for largely non-football reasons and we get a very good qb. Not at all keen on Rudolph, though I will root for whoever we choose to do well.
SouthNYfan Posted April 10, 2018 Posted April 10, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 3:14 AM, transplantbillsfan said: I've been on record as wanting Darnold, Mayfield and Rudolph, so I guess 2/3 ain't bad. God please no to Allen!!! I'm good with Allen. Only because I'm a risk taker. I even cut the tags off of my pillows and mattresses. 19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Rudolph's "pro ready" ness should be a major concern, if that's not what you've read. He plays in an "air raid" offense with a very simplified set of reads, and he has had the benefit of some great WR talent who can make a play on whatever he throws. I'm not saying he can't play in an NFL offense, I'm just saying that whatever he does at the whiteboard, he's going to have a learning curve in actual games. I've started to think that this is a term scouts and analysts throw around that either means "really good, ready to rock" or "he's hit his ceiling, this is what he will be as a pro, if you're lucky" 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 10, 2018 Posted April 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Dr. Who said: So much smoke nowadays, I really don't know what is credible and what is not. Unlike most, I actually like all the top four, though Allen is the highest risk. My current best hope is Rosen falls for largely non-football reasons and we get a very good qb. Not at all keen on Rudolph, though I will root for whoever we choose to do well. Well, our own "Buffalo716" over on the college football forum has some pretty good stuff. I like Erik Turner of Cover1. The bottom line to remember is that most college QB these days do play in a simplified offense so there will be some transition. Rosen, Allen, and Jackson are exceptions. How important that transition may be is open to opinion, since NFL OCs increasingly run college concepts and for any QB, the speed of the pro game and the athleticism of the guys chasing you around is a big step up. 2
SouthNYfan Posted April 10, 2018 Posted April 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Well, our own "Buffalo716" over on the college football forum has some pretty good stuff. I like Erik Turner of Cover1. The bottom line to remember is that most college QB these days do play in a simplified offense so there will be some transition. Rosen, Allen, and Jackson are exceptions. How important that transition may be is open to opinion, since NFL OCs increasingly run college concepts and for any QB, the speed of the pro game and the athleticism of the guys chasing you around is a big step up. Don't forget the size and power too. Most of the college defenses they play against arent running guys like JJ Watt and Khalil Mack as you, who want to eat your kidneys for lunch
racketmaster Posted April 10, 2018 Author Posted April 10, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Rudolph's "pro ready" ness should be a major concern, if that's not what you've read. He plays in an "air raid" offense with a very simplified set of reads, and he has had the benefit of some great WR talent who can make a play on whatever he throws. I'm not saying he can't play in an NFL offense, I'm just saying that whatever he does at the whiteboard, he's going to have a learning curve in actual games. Every college quarterback is going to have a learning curve because the college game is so different from the NFL as far as what qbs are asked to do. I think Mason gets a bad rap but he has done some setting of protections and site adjustments. They controlled tempo on offense going very fast or slow it down. Is he going to be asked to do more at the NFL level? For sure but I think he is smart enough and he mastered the system he was asked to perform in at the college level. Many of the spread concepts have made there way to the NFL and most college qbs don’t huddle and take but a few snaps from under center while in college. But there too the NFL is moving the way of the college game. A lot of folks love Mahomes (I like him too) and give Rudolph grief for being system qbs. What about Goff? If you have a smart OC and the qb has the tools and is smart enough, then it can work. That’s why the interview and whiteboard process is so important. It allows teams to figure out what qbs were asked to do and what they are capable of learning. Edited April 10, 2018 by racketmaster
TigerJ Posted April 10, 2018 Posted April 10, 2018 I'm OK with Rudolph if that is how the draft shakes out. I'm not expecting him to start right away. His Wonderlic score was not leaked as were the top 5 QBs, but when he's been on TV he appears to be bright and articulate, with an excellent recall when shown plays (Steve Mariucci's white board). The Bills will be comfortable starting McCarron or Peterman IMO, and I think it'll take less than a year for Rudolph to grasp Daboll's offense.
mead107 Posted April 10, 2018 Posted April 10, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 4:37 PM, racketmaster said: It’s draft season and it is always an exciting time especially when the Bills are in the market for a quarterback. It is no secret the Bills are in the market for a quarterback and if it is, then it is the worst kept secret. They let their feelings about Taylor and his future be known when pulling him for Peterman in the middle of a playoff race. It is possible Taylor could be back but only to finish out his last year as a bridge. The Bills regime is going into their second year and they know they must find a franchise quarterback or they will not have long term job security. They are going to do everything possible in this draft to find their quarterback. So with that said, I enjoy putting on my Sherlock Holmes hat and predicting (mocking) quarterbacks who would be a fit for the Bills. So the following is not a true analysis and quarterback ranking, but rather who are the quarterbacks most valued by the Bills? In order to come up with an educated guess it is useful to first look at what type of quarterback the Bills might be looking for. I have listed a few generally known facts about the organization and some additional attributes mentioned by our GM. The McBeane era has brought significant changes to the organization and the changes will reflect on what quarterback they will likely target. Here are some attributes that the current organization appears to place a high emphasis on (no particular order): 1. High moral character 2. Willingness to compete 3. Being a good teammate 4. Smart 5. Emphasis on experience and maturity 6. Importance of faith and family 7. High work ethic 8. Availability and durability, 9. Scheme and culture fit.There are probably more but McDermott and Beane appear to have emphasized these traits in the types of players they have maintained and acquired. When drafting players and acquiring players the Bills seem to place an emphasis on these traits. Not every player will be a perfect 10 on the list of characteristics but the Bills appear to want players that possess all or most of those characteristics. The 2017 draft and free agents signings demonstrate this. The players traded away also demonstrate this. After the Watkins and Darby traded McDermott was quoted as saying “the Bills were trying to build a team – not just collect talent. So we have a pretty good idea of what attributes the Bills value in all of their players. But what are some of the specific characteristics the Bills may be looking for in a quarterback? The following quote from Brandon Beane gives us some insight into this area: "Obviously, you draw them up, from a physical standpoint, they look like Cam (Newton)," Beane said. "But how many are there like that? You want a guy, the stature, the height, you know, they're standing over, they're not worried about linemen in their face. It gives them the vision and all that. Arm strength. But the one thing that people I think miss a little bit when they're watching, you know, the college game schematically has just been so dummied down that these guys know before the ball's snapped right where they're going. There's no progressions. There's no audibiling. That's the challenge that the college guys have, and it's brutal. And these quarterbacks that are getting drafted high that have never taken a snap from center, have never called an audible. That's tough. The intangibles are the other thing that you can't necessarily measure from the film. I can turn on the film and watch some things. You obviously want to see quarterbacks live, but what's this guy's makeup? What's his leadership? Do guys rally behind him? I go back to Carolina. Jake Delhomme, one of the greatest leaders I've ever been around. He was undrafted. The guy willed himself to lead the team the years he was in Carolina. His intangibles were a 12 on a one-to-10 scale. And that's how he overcame his athletic limitations. I kind of went around the question a little bit, but you're looking for a lot of things, some of it physically we can all see. But a lot of it you can't necessarily see." So here we can infer that Beane values (1) Size (ideal height and weight), (2) Arm Strength (3) Mental side of game (4) Leadership. In another recent quote, Beane was asked what quarterbacks he had scouted live and he responded by saying "I've seen all of them that matter," Beane said. "I've seen every one of them that could potentially be in the first round." This statement is very telling to me. Beane said he has seen all the quarterbacks that matter (ones that could be drafted by in first round). He is basically telling us that the Bills are looking for their franchise quarterback in the first round because those are the ones that matter. So who has Beane visited this college season? Bills Mafia Dean Kindig has a list of visits made by Beane to colleges (updated 12/4/17): USC/Darnold 3 times, Oklahoma State Rudolph 2 times plus a reported Bowl game visit by Beane and Schoen, UCLA Rosen 2 times, Oklahoma Mayfield 1 time, Louisville Jackson 1 time and Wyoming Allen 1 time. It is possible that some of the visits are not accurate but I will trust the writer as he has been tracking this activity for the past few years. Coincidentally, the above six quarterbacks are the only ones that are consistently found in the first rounds of mock drafts. Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield and Allen are found being drafted in the first round of most every mock draft out there. Rudolph and Jackson are found going in a significant number of mock drafts but not at the same level as the other four. No other quarterbacks are found going in the first round on a significant basis. Beane reportedly visited Washington State (Falk) 2 times as well but Falk is not considered a first round quarterback in most mock drafts. Mike White and Lauletta’s respective colleges were not on the list of visits. Conclusions/Predictions: So that is a lot of information to digest. Hopefully, you were patient to sift through it all for yourself. Maybe you have and made your own conclusions. Here are my takeaways from this information/evidence: DARNOLD: He appears to fit the character attributes the organization is looking for in a quarterback. Work ethic and coachable. No real off the field issues and no concerns from teammates and coaches that have been made public. Darnold also fits the physical attributes Beane appears to be looking for in a quarterback. There are concerns with his throwing motion and decision making, but I think he checks most all the boxes for the Bills. Enough where I believe the Bills would trade up for him if they could get in the right spot. ALLEN: Same with Darnold, Allen checks all the boxes for the type of character the Bills are looking for in a quarterback. He also is the most physically gifted quarterback to come out since probably Cam Newton in terms of size, mobility and arm strength. So those boxes will be checks. There are concerns about his accuracy, read defenses and throw with touch. But I don’t think any of these things will automatically take Allen out of consideration. To me, the interview process and visits with coaches will be the determining factor for Allen. If he shows really well on the board and proves that he can process and retain information being thrown at him he could be a target for a trade up. He is in consideration. RUDOLPH: I have watched videos and interviews with all the top quarterbacks and my sense is that Rudolph will blow the Bills decision makers away with his intangibles and character. He reminds me of a young Peyton Manning in the way he conducts himself. I don’t know what “It” is but he definitely has the “It” part down in spades. He also has the size and stature the Bills are looking for in a quarterback. However, I think the Bills will have reservations regarding his arm strength. I have questions about his arm strength and it is definitely the weakest of the top 6 quarterbacks. But is it “Strong Enough” as Philip Rivers famously said about his arm during the draft process. Combine and pro days will tell us more. But Beane did reference Delhomme as a franchise quarterback and he was not one with the strongest of arm or possessing any great mobility. He was off the charts in the intangibles department and that is where I believe Rudolph will also fall in the Bills eyes. I see Rudolph as a very real possibility at 21 if he demonstrates that his arm is just strong enough. MAYFIELD: Mayfield had the drunken incident in which he ran away from the cops but otherwise no other off the field issues. But he has displayed himself in a brash and almost cocky manner on the field and was involved in the crotch grabbing incident. . Mayfield is a regular on social media and can be sensitive about criticism. These may not be deal breakers if Mayfield was a LB or WR. But we are talking quarterback and the Face of the Franchise. McBeane will be attaching their reputation and careers on this draft pick and Mayfield will likely fail the maturity test. In addition, Mayfield fails the size and stature test. This is probably not a deal breaker but it is rare to find franchise quarterbacks at his size. Brees and Wilson are the exceptions but they are also exceptionally mature individuals and were so coming out of college. I just don’t see Mayfield as a fit and would be surprised if the Bills targeted him. ROSEN: With Rosen, there have been consistent rumblings about his demeanor/attitude going back to his days at the Elite 11 camp. Reading into his background, my sense on him is that he grew up a privileged kid and has a “I’m better than you” type demeanor about him. He is extremely smart but maybe too smart for his own good sometimes. He has had issues with past coaches like Dilfer and Mora and it is likely due to Rosen thinking he is smarter than his coaches (sometimes he might be). But there are ways of using your intelligence in a more productive manner. Rosen needs to grow in his maturity and recognize that there is a time and place to question coaches and you must do so in a tactful manner without being dismissive toward instruction. There have been rumblings that his attitude rubs teammates the wrong way as well. As much as McBeane emphasize team culture and character, I just can’t imagine that Rosen would be a fit for the Bills. In addition, there have been questions about how passionate Rosen is about the game of football. Is he going to walk away and pursue other interests? Will he be truly committed to his team? He has durability concerns missing a significant amount of games in college to include concussion concerns. If he gets 1 or 2 more concussions in the NFL, is he just going to walk away because he can pursue another passion? I just don’t see a match with the Bills and I would be absolutely shocked if the Bills traded up for him. In fact, I would not be surprised if the Bills passed on Rosen if he fell to them at 21. McBeane value the right fit over talent. No matter where Rosen would be drafted by the Bills, he is not the right fit for this organization. JACKSON: I’ll admit that I have spent the least amount of time researching Jackson. I have watched only 4 of his games and just 3-4 interviews. I have read some articles on him as well but have not does a deep dive into him. By all accounts he has solid character. He is not particularly impressive during interviews but nothing that raises a red flag. In my mind he has 2 things going wrong for him as far as his chances of being drafted by the Bills. First, he is smaller in stature and has a more slender build. The Bills would prefer him to be taller and thicker. Second, and probably more importantly is that he is similar to Tyrod Taylor and not just because they are both black quarterbacks. Jackson is an exceptional runner, probably faster and more explosive than Tyrod. He ran a lot in college and he was successful at it. But quarterbacks that run as much as he did in college do so at the detriment of improving as a passer. The NFL is a different animal. He will make some plays with his legs but eventually the speed and skill of NFL defenders will get to him as they do with Tyrod. And can his more slender frame hold up to NFL collisions? And when defenses scheme to take away his running lanes, will he be prepared to make NFL throws on a consistent basis. We have seen this with Tyrod. He has some success but teams that remain disciplined against the run and keep him in the pocket tend to have success against him. The Bills appear very ready to move on from Tyrod and it would be an odd choice to me if they were to replace him with Jackson. I actually, could see Jackson ending up on a team like the Bengals, Baltimore or San Diego. He could sit behind a veteran but also be used in special situations. Again, I would be surprised if the Bills targeted him as their franchise quarterback. SUMMARY: Things can change but as I see it right now I put the following percentages of the Bills drafting the following qbs: Rudolph 50%, Allen 25%, Darnold 20% and the remaining field 5%. My bet is Rudolph because he should be available for the Bills at 21 or maybe they have to just move up a few spots at a reasonable price. Darnold will probably end up at #1 and I don’t see the Browns moving out of that spot. If he slips past the NYG, the Bills will probably try and take a major run at him. Maybe even try and trade with the Giants if they are willing to go with Eli for another few years (probably unlikely scenario). If Allen passes the interview process and mental tests from our coaches he could be in play for a trade up, especially if he gets past Denver and the Jets. Things could change, but that’s how I would handicap it right now. UPDATED PORTION 4/10/18: We are almost 2 weeks away from the draft now and things are starting to become a little clearer. What we know: (1) Bills are drafting a QB in round 1 and (2) Bills prefer a big, strong, competitive, dedicated, at least some mobile qb but one that is a consistent pocket passer. Who are the top candidates in round 1? The answer is still the same (Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen, Jackson and Rudolph). And of the top 6, I think we can eliminate 2 of them, Jackson and Allen. Why? Allen has all the physical attributes the Bills are looking for and has excellent character as well. But it is clear that they Bills have not spent much time on Allen and they must be bothered by his pocket presence, accuracy and decision-making. If the updated version of Dean Kindig's (scouting the Bills scouts) is correct, then the Bills attended the following games of the top 6: Darnold (3), Rosen (2). Mayfield (2), Rudolph (2), Jackson (1) and Allen (0). This is a bit of a change as it had been reported previously that the Bills attended 1 of Allen's games. But 1 or none, still shows the Bills overall lack of interest in Allen. A few weeks ago, the Allen and Buffalo loves him rumors started circulating around the draft community and it appeared that Bills scouts were deliberately putting that information out there. To me, it was an obvious smokescreen. Maybe the Bills had some interest in Allen but not in the top half of round 1 where he would need to be selected. It could also be that the Bills know the Browns want Allen and there is nothing they can do with them at #1 and #4. Whatever, the case may be the Bills have not shown enough interest in Allen to lead me to believe they would risk trading a bunch of assets to move up and get him. Jackson is the other qb we can eliminate from contention. As stated in the original post, Jackson is not a fit for what the Bills are looking for and nothing has changed since that time (if anything it is even more obvious). They have moved on from Tyrod and the Bills brass have not had the extensive meetings they have had with the other top candidates. Whether that is due to lack of interest on the Bills part or scheduling issues with Jackson's mother being his agent. In any case, the Bills attended only 1 of Jackson's games live. And if there is a candidate that the Bills would want to test on the whiteboard and through watching extensive film with, it is Jackson. It has been reported that Jackson did not impress in interviews at the combine and his 13 wonderlic score did him no favors. Jackson could end up being the most productive qb of the bunch (at least for the first few years) but it is extremely unlikely that it will be with the Bills. They want a consistent pocket passing qb (Bills envision a long term answer at qb and they see long term success coming from consistent pocket passers). That is not Jackson's game as he relies far too much on his legs. I can't emphasize this enough, the Bills are not purposely avoiding Jackson in order to fake other teams out. This is an extremely important decision and they are not drafting a qb without having gone through extensive whiteboard, interviews and film study with the candidates. They have had short interviews with but not the extensive ones. This regime values information and will want to know virtually everything about the player they select. Who does it leave: Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield and Rudolph. I think there is little doubt at this point that Buffalo's top choice would be Darnold. They loved him in the fall and attended 3 of his games (more than any other qb). As stated in the original post, Darnold checks all the boxes of what the Bills are looking for in a qb. The only problem is, how do the Bills get to 1 or 2 because that is the only way they would be able to draft him. The Bills are visiting with Darnold this week and like others I do not believe they would be wasting their time meeting with him if they did not have some plan to trade up. And I do believe the Bills would be willing to pay a hefty price for Darnold. The question will be if they can get Cleveland of the Giants to bite. I believe the reports that the Giants only want Darnold and would otherwise take a player at another position. And if that is the case, the Bills won't be able to trade with the Giants or would have to significantly overpay in order to get the Giants to move off Darnold. It might be more possible that the Bills get a deal with Cleveland because I do believe the many reports that they love Allen. I believe Cleveland is looking for ways to get Allen but also get some extra picks out of the deal (it would help them justify taking Allen over Darnold if they could get extra assets). Ideally, they probably want the Giants to pay them a second and third to move up to #1. I think they have been trying to get Gettleman to pay assets to move up 1 spot but they have gotten no where so far. Maybe the Bills are just being used to get the Giants to move (similar to the Colts using the Bills to get the Jets or Denver to move up). But in any case the Bills have some visions of a possible move up to the top spot. In the end, Bills push really hard to get up to the #1 or #2 spot but probably can't close deal (25% chance they get this deal). Rosen/ Mayfield: These 2 players are the hardest to gauge exactly how much the Bills like them. Bills have obvious interest in them both (attended 2 games a piece and have had extensive meetings and visits with both). But both qbs have enough concerns that the Bills will not trade up inside the top 3 to get them. Rosen's character concerns may have been a little overblown in the initial draft process but they are still a concern (His former HC is taking another qb #1 over him and describing Rosen as a typical millennial). Most concerning are Rosen's injuries (especially the concussions). Durability and availability are a high priority for franchise qbs. Mayfield has some character concerns (arrest tape, at time overly cocky) and this will bother the Bills some. Also, he does not have ideal size for the position and this is also important to this regime. That said, the Bills are spending a lot of time on them. Which one os left after pick 3 will depend on who the Jets like. It is at this spot (picks 4 thru 11) that the Bills might consider trading up for either Rosen or Mayfield. However, I don't think the Bills are in love with the entire package for either of these players. For that reason, I believe the Bills would be outbid by other teams that may be in "love" with Mayfield or Rosen (maybe Arizona, Miami, or Denver). For this reason, I see the chance of selecting Rosen or Mayfield as about 15%. Again, this does not mean that they are bad qb options, but it is all about "fit" and "DNA" and I don't think either player is a perfect match for the Bills. Rudolph: This leaves the last of the top 6 and the player most likely to be left out of the discussion by pundits when discussing the top qbs. Rudolph has been gaining momentum as of late. Many pundits that had Rudolph going in the second round are not thinking he will go in the late first. There are a bunch of teams that have been rumored to like Rudolph (Denver, Washington, Baltimore, New England and Pittsburgh to name a few). It is no surprise that Rudolph has gained momentum as I said before, he will likely kill it during the interview process. You can tell that he has spent a good deal of time around the Manning family as he conducts himself like a Manning. His intangibles will appeal to a lot of team and I firmly believe the Bills are one of those teams. The Bills have definite interest in Rudolph (attended 2 of his games in the fall) and have met extensively with him (most recently with him being in Buffalo this past weekend). Rudolph checks every box the Bills are looking for with the exception of arm strength. There are real concerns about his arm strength but I believe they see it as strong enough. Beane could see Rudolph as his Jake Delhomme (not necessarily the most talented qb but a 12 on a scale of 1-10 for intangibles). And the most important thing, Rudolph will likely be available at 12 and the Bills won't need to give up any assets. Beane loves his picks and he will need to be "all in" on a player to move up and give up that many assets. For that reason, the Bills will most likely get turned away by the Browns and Giants and settle on Rudolph (a player that I believe from a character perspective is the best fit of any of the quarterbacks). I say it is a 60% chance Rudolph gets selected. The draft can't get here soon enough. Riley Ferguson
John from Riverside Posted April 10, 2018 Posted April 10, 2018 To the OP......Im ok after taking some motrin after reading your post.
BadLandsMeanie Posted April 10, 2018 Posted April 10, 2018 Thanks for the thoughtful post racketmaster. I knew a lot of the information already because I have spent too much time reading up on these people. But I learned some too and you back up your opinions well. Don't worry about the ones who just stop in to say they didn't read it because it was too long. 1
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