Playing Sherlock Holmes, what QB will the Bills draft? UPDATED

[racketmaster]

It’s draft season and it is always an exciting time especially when the Bills are in the market for a quarterback. It is no secret the Bills are in the market for a quarterback and if it is, then it is the worst kept secret. They let their feelings about Taylor and his future be known when pulling him for Peterman in the middle of a playoff race. It is possible Taylor could be back but only to finish out his last year as a bridge. The Bills regime is going into their second year and they know they must find a franchise quarterback or they will not have long term job security. They are going to do everything possible in this draft to find their quarterback. So with that said, I enjoy putting on my Sherlock Holmes hat and predicting (mocking) quarterbacks who would be a fit for the Bills. So the following is not a true analysis and quarterback ranking, but rather who are the quarterbacks most valued by the Bills?

 

In order to come up with an educated guess it is useful to first look at what type of quarterback the Bills might be looking for. I have listed a few generally known facts about the organization and some additional attributes mentioned by our GM. The McBeane era has brought significant changes to the organization and the changes will reflect on what quarterback they will likely target.

 

Here are some attributes that the current organization appears to place a high emphasis on (no particular order): 1. High moral character 2. Willingness to compete 3. Being a good teammate 4. Smart 5. Emphasis on experience and maturity 6. Importance of faith and family 7. High work ethic 8. Availability and durability, 9. Scheme and culture fit.There are probably more but McDermott and Beane appear to have emphasized these traits in the types of players they have maintained and acquired. When drafting players and acquiring players the Bills seem to place an emphasis on these traits. Not every player will be a perfect 10 on the list of characteristics but the Bills appear to want players that possess all or most of those characteristics. The 2017 draft and free agents signings demonstrate this. The players traded away also demonstrate this. After the Watkins and Darby traded McDermott was quoted as saying “the Bills were trying to build a team – not just collect talent.

 

So we have a pretty good idea of what attributes the Bills value in all of their players. But what are some of the specific characteristics the Bills may be looking for in a quarterback? The following quote from Brandon Beane gives us some insight into this area:  "Obviously, you draw them up, from a physical standpoint, they look like Cam (Newton)," Beane said. "But how many are there like that? You want a guy, the stature, the height, you know, they're standing over, they're not worried about linemen in their face. It gives them the vision and all that. Arm strength. But the one thing that people I think miss a little bit when they're watching, you know, the college game schematically has just been so dummied down that these guys know before the ball's snapped right where they're going. There's no progressions. There's no audibiling. That's the challenge that the college guys have, and it's brutal. And these quarterbacks that are getting drafted high that have never taken a snap from center, have never called an audible. That's tough. The intangibles are the other thing that you can't necessarily measure from the film. I can turn on the film and watch some things. You obviously want to see quarterbacks live, but what's this guy's makeup? What's his leadership? Do guys rally behind him? I go back to Carolina. Jake Delhomme, one of the greatest leaders I've ever been around. He was undrafted. The guy willed himself to lead the team the years he was in Carolina. His intangibles were a 12 on a one-to-10 scale. And that's how he overcame his athletic limitations. I kind of went around the question a little bit, but you're looking for a lot of things, some of it physically we can all see. But a lot of it you can't necessarily see." 

 

So here we can infer that Beane values (1) Size (ideal height and weight), (2) Arm Strength (3) Mental side of game (4) Leadership. In another recent quote, Beane was asked what quarterbacks he had scouted live and he responded by saying "I've seen all of them that matter," Beane said. "I've seen every one of them that could potentially be in the first round."

This statement is very telling to me. Beane said he has seen all the quarterbacks that matter (ones that could be drafted by in first round). He is basically telling us that the Bills are looking for their franchise quarterback in the first round because those are the ones that matter. So who has Beane visited this college season?

 

Bills Mafia Dean Kindig has a list of visits made by Beane to colleges (updated 12/4/17):

USC/Darnold 3 times, Oklahoma State Rudolph 2 times plus a reported Bowl game visit by Beane and Schoen, UCLA Rosen 2 times, Oklahoma Mayfield 1 time, Louisville Jackson 1 time and Wyoming Allen 1 time.

 

It is possible that some of the visits are not accurate but I will trust the writer as he has been tracking this activity for the past few years. Coincidentally, the above six quarterbacks are the only ones that are consistently found in the first rounds of mock drafts. Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield and Allen are found being drafted in the first round of most every mock draft out there. Rudolph and Jackson are found going in a significant number of mock drafts but not at the same level as the other four. No other quarterbacks are found going in the first round on a significant basis. Beane reportedly visited Washington State (Falk) 2 times as well but Falk is not considered a first round quarterback in most mock drafts. Mike White and Lauletta’s respective colleges were not on the list of visits.

 

Conclusions/Predictions:

So that is a lot of information to digest. Hopefully, you were patient to sift through it all for yourself. Maybe you have and made your own conclusions. Here are my takeaways from this information/evidence:

DARNOLD: He appears to fit the character attributes the organization is looking for in a quarterback. Work ethic and coachable. No real off the field issues and no concerns from teammates and coaches that have been made public. Darnold also fits the physical attributes Beane appears to be looking for in a quarterback. There are concerns with his throwing motion and decision making, but I think he checks most all the boxes for the Bills. Enough where I believe the Bills would trade up for him if they could get in the right spot.

ALLEN: Same with Darnold, Allen checks all the boxes for the type of character the Bills are looking for in a quarterback. He also is the most physically gifted quarterback to come out since probably Cam Newton in terms of size, mobility and arm strength. So those boxes will be checks. There are concerns about his accuracy, read defenses and throw with touch. But I don’t think any of these things will automatically take Allen out of consideration. To me, the interview process and visits with coaches will be the determining factor for Allen. If he shows really well on the board and proves that he can process and retain information being thrown at him he could be a target for a trade up. He is in consideration.

RUDOLPH: I have watched videos and interviews with all the top quarterbacks and my sense is that Rudolph will blow the Bills decision makers away with his intangibles and character. He reminds me of a young Peyton Manning in the way he conducts himself. I don’t know what “It” is but he definitely has the “It” part down in spades. He also has the size and stature the Bills are looking for in a quarterback. However, I think the Bills will have reservations regarding his arm strength. I have questions about his arm strength and it is definitely the weakest of the top 6 quarterbacks. But is it “Strong Enough” as Philip Rivers famously said about his arm during the draft process. Combine and pro days will tell us more. But Beane did reference Delhomme as a franchise quarterback and he was not one with the strongest of arm or possessing any great mobility. He was off the charts in the intangibles department and that is where I believe Rudolph will also fall in the Bills eyes. I see Rudolph as a very real possibility at 21 if he demonstrates that his arm is just strong enough.

MAYFIELD: Mayfield had the drunken incident in which he ran away from the cops but otherwise no other off the field issues. But he has displayed himself in a brash and almost cocky manner on the field and was involved in the crotch grabbing incident. . Mayfield is a regular on social media and can be sensitive about criticism.  These may not be deal breakers if Mayfield was a LB or WR. But we are talking quarterback and the Face of the Franchise. McBeane will be attaching their reputation and careers on this draft pick and Mayfield will likely fail the maturity test. In addition, Mayfield fails the size and stature test. This is probably not a deal breaker but it is rare to find franchise quarterbacks at his size. Brees and Wilson are the exceptions but they are also exceptionally mature individuals and were so coming out of college. I just don’t see Mayfield as a fit and would be surprised if the Bills targeted him.

ROSEN: With Rosen, there have been consistent rumblings about his demeanor/attitude going back to his days at the Elite 11 camp. Reading into his background, my sense on him is that he grew up a privileged kid and has a “I’m better than you” type demeanor about him. He is extremely smart but maybe too smart for his own good sometimes. He has had issues with past coaches like Dilfer and Mora and it is likely due to Rosen thinking he is smarter than his coaches (sometimes he might be). But there are ways of using your intelligence in a more productive manner. Rosen needs to grow in his maturity and recognize that there is a time and place to question coaches and you must do so in a tactful manner without being dismissive toward instruction. There have been rumblings that his attitude rubs teammates the wrong way as well. As much as McBeane emphasize team culture and character, I just can’t imagine that Rosen would be a fit for the Bills. In addition, there have been questions about how passionate Rosen is about the game of football. Is he going to walk away and pursue other interests? Will he be truly committed to his team? He has durability concerns missing a significant amount of games in college to include concussion concerns. If he gets 1 or 2 more concussions in the NFL, is he just going to walk away because he can pursue another passion? I just don’t see a match with the Bills and I would be absolutely shocked if the Bills traded up for him. In fact, I would not be surprised if the Bills passed on Rosen if he fell to them at 21. McBeane value the right fit over talent. No matter where Rosen would be drafted by the Bills, he is not the right fit for this organization.

JACKSON: I’ll admit that I have spent the least amount of time researching Jackson. I have watched only 4 of his games and just 3-4 interviews. I have read some articles on him as well but have not does a deep dive into him. By all accounts he has solid character. He is not particularly impressive during interviews but nothing that raises a red flag. In my mind he has 2 things going wrong for him as far as his chances of being drafted by the Bills. First, he is smaller in stature and has a more slender build. The Bills would prefer him to be taller and thicker. Second, and probably more importantly is that he is similar to Tyrod Taylor and not just because they are both black quarterbacks. Jackson is an exceptional runner, probably faster and more explosive than Tyrod. He ran a lot in college and he was successful at it. But quarterbacks that run as much as he did in college do so at the detriment of improving as a passer. The NFL is a different animal. He will make some plays with his legs but eventually the speed and skill of NFL defenders will get to him as they do with Tyrod. And can his more slender frame hold up to NFL collisions? And when defenses scheme to take away his running lanes, will he be prepared to make NFL throws on a consistent basis. We have seen this with Tyrod. He has some success but teams that remain disciplined against the run and keep him in the pocket tend to have success against him. The Bills appear very ready to move on from Tyrod and it would be an odd choice to me if they were to replace him with Jackson. I actually, could see Jackson ending up on a team like the Bengals, Baltimore or San Diego. He could sit behind a veteran but also be used in special situations. Again, I would be surprised if the Bills targeted him as their franchise quarterback.

SUMMARY:

Things can change but as I see it right now I put the following percentages of the Bills drafting the following qbs: Rudolph 50%, Allen 25%, Darnold 20% and the remaining field 5%. My bet is Rudolph because he should be available for the Bills at 21 or maybe they have to just move up a few spots at a reasonable price. Darnold will probably end up at #1 and I don’t see the Browns moving out of that spot. If he slips past the NYG, the Bills will probably try and take a major run at him. Maybe even try and trade with the Giants if they are willing to go with Eli for another few years (probably unlikely scenario). If Allen passes the interview process and mental tests from our coaches he could be in play for a trade up, especially if he gets past Denver and the Jets. Things could change, but that’s how I would handicap it right now.

 

UPDATED PORTION 4/10/18:

We are almost 2 weeks away from the draft now and things are starting to become a little clearer. What we know: (1) Bills are drafting a QB in round 1 and (2) Bills prefer a big, strong, competitive, dedicated, at least some mobile qb but one that is a consistent pocket passer. 

 

Who are the top candidates in round 1? The answer is still the same (Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen, Jackson and Rudolph). And of the top 6, I think we can eliminate 2 of them, Jackson and Allen. Why? Allen has all the physical attributes the Bills are looking for and has excellent character as well. But it is clear that they Bills have not spent much time on Allen and they must be bothered by his pocket presence, accuracy and decision-making. If the updated version of Dean Kindig's (scouting the Bills scouts) is correct, then the Bills attended the following games of the top 6: Darnold (3), Rosen (2). Mayfield (2), Rudolph (2), Jackson (1) and Allen (0). This is a bit of a change as it had been reported previously that the Bills attended 1 of Allen's games. But 1 or none, still shows the Bills overall lack of interest in Allen. A few weeks ago, the Allen and Buffalo loves him rumors started circulating around the draft community and it appeared that Bills scouts were deliberately putting that information out there. To me, it was an obvious smokescreen. Maybe the Bills had some interest in Allen but not in the top half of round 1 where he would need to be selected. It could also be that the Bills know the Browns want Allen and there is nothing they can do with them at #1 and #4. Whatever, the case may be the Bills have not shown enough interest in Allen to lead me to believe they would risk trading a bunch of assets to move up and get him.

 

Jackson is the other qb we can eliminate from contention. As stated in the original post, Jackson is not a fit for what the Bills are looking for and nothing has changed since that time (if anything it is even more obvious). They have moved on from Tyrod and the Bills brass have not had the extensive meetings they have had with the other top candidates. Whether  that is due to lack of interest on the Bills part or scheduling issues with Jackson's mother being his agent. In any case, the Bills attended only 1 of Jackson's games live. And if there is a candidate that the Bills would want to test on the whiteboard and through watching extensive film with, it is Jackson. It has been reported that Jackson did not impress in interviews at the combine and his 13 wonderlic score did him no favors. Jackson could end up being the most productive qb of the bunch (at least for the first few years) but it is extremely unlikely that it will be with the Bills. They want a consistent pocket passing qb (Bills envision a long term answer at qb and they see long term success coming from consistent pocket passers). That is not Jackson's game as he relies far too much on his legs. I can't emphasize this enough, the Bills are not purposely avoiding Jackson in order to fake other teams out. This is an extremely important decision and they are not drafting a qb without having gone through extensive whiteboard, interviews and film study with the candidates. They have had short interviews with but not the extensive ones. This regime values information and will want to know virtually everything about the player they select.

 

Who does it leave: Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield and Rudolph. 

I think there is little doubt at this point that Buffalo's top choice would be Darnold. They loved him in the fall and attended 3 of his games (more than any other qb). As stated in the original post, Darnold checks all the boxes of what the Bills are looking for in a qb. The only problem is, how do the Bills get to 1 or 2 because that is the only way they would be able to draft him. The Bills are visiting with Darnold this week and like others I do not believe they would be wasting their time meeting with him if they did not have some plan to trade up. And I do believe the Bills would be willing to pay a hefty price for Darnold. The question will be if they can get Cleveland of the Giants to bite. I believe the reports that the Giants only want Darnold and would otherwise take a player at another position. And if that is the case, the Bills won't be able to trade with the Giants or would have to significantly overpay in order to get the Giants to move off Darnold. It might be more possible that the Bills get a deal with Cleveland because I do believe the many reports that they love Allen. I believe Cleveland is looking for ways to get Allen but also get some extra picks out of the deal (it would help them justify taking Allen over Darnold if they could get extra assets). Ideally, they probably want the Giants to pay them a second and third to move up to #1. I think they have been trying to get Gettleman to pay assets to move up 1 spot but they have gotten no where so far. Maybe the Bills are just being used to get the Giants to move (similar to the Colts using the Bills to get the Jets or Denver to move up). But in any case the Bills have some visions of a possible move up to the top spot. In the end, Bills push really hard to get up to the #1 or #2 spot but probably can't close deal (25% chance they get this deal). 

 

Rosen/ Mayfield: These 2 players are the hardest to gauge exactly how much the Bills like them. Bills have obvious interest in them both (attended 2 games a piece and have had extensive meetings and visits with both). But both qbs have enough concerns that the Bills will not trade up inside the top 3 to get them. Rosen's character concerns may have been a little overblown in the initial draft process but they are still a concern (His former HC is taking another qb #1 over him and describing Rosen as a typical millennial). Most concerning are Rosen's injuries (especially the concussions). Durability and availability are a high priority for franchise qbs. Mayfield has some character concerns (arrest tape, at time overly cocky) and this will bother the Bills some. Also, he does not have ideal size for the position and this is also important to this regime. That said, the Bills are spending a lot of time on them. Which one os left after pick 3 will depend on who the Jets like. It is at this spot (picks 4 thru 11) that the Bills might consider trading up for either Rosen or Mayfield. However, I don't think the Bills are in love with the entire package for either of these players. For that reason, I believe the Bills would be outbid by other teams that may be in "love" with Mayfield or Rosen (maybe Arizona, Miami, or Denver). For this reason, I see the chance of selecting Rosen or Mayfield as about 15%. Again, this does not mean that they are bad qb options, but it is all about "fit" and "DNA" and I don't think either player is a perfect match for the Bills. 

 

Rudolph: This leaves the last of the top 6 and the player most likely to be left out of the discussion by pundits when discussing the top qbs. Rudolph has been gaining momentum as of late. Many pundits that had Rudolph going in the second round are not thinking he will go in the late first. There are a bunch of teams that have been rumored to like Rudolph (Denver, Washington, Baltimore, New England and Pittsburgh to name a few). It is no surprise that Rudolph has gained momentum as I said before, he will likely kill it during the interview process. You can tell that he has spent a good deal of time around the Manning family as he conducts himself like a Manning. His intangibles will appeal to a lot of team and I firmly believe the Bills are one of those teams. The Bills have definite interest in Rudolph (attended 2 of his games in the fall) and have met extensively with him (most recently with him being in Buffalo this past weekend). Rudolph checks every box the Bills are looking for with the exception of arm strength. There are real concerns about his arm strength but I believe they see it as strong enough. Beane could see Rudolph as his Jake Delhomme (not necessarily the most talented qb but a 12 on a scale of 1-10 for intangibles). And the most important thing, Rudolph will likely be available at 12 and the Bills won't need to give up any assets. Beane loves his picks and he will need to be "all in" on a player to move up and give up that many assets. For that reason, the Bills will most likely get turned away by the Browns and Giants and settle on Rudolph (a player that I believe from a character perspective is the best fit of any of the quarterbacks). I say it is a 60% chance Rudolph gets selected.

 

The draft can't get here soon enough.  

 

 

 

 

Edited April 10, 2018 by racketmaster

[BuffaloHokie13]

I don't think Allen comes anywhere close to the accuracy that Beane has publicly said he looks for and cares about more than arm strength.

[Seanbillsfan2206]

tl/dr. All in on Foles. Go Bills

[racketmaster]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I don't think Allen comes anywhere close to the accuracy that Beane has publicly said he looks for and cares about more than arm strength.

At this point, I can't write Allen off because of his immense physical tools. Beane was significantly involved with scouting and drafting Cam Newton. He had limited experience and was not the most accurate passer even though his completion percentage was very solid. Allen operates in a pro style offense and was required to make more difficult throws. Yes, he makes some very inaccurate throws but because he is incredibly gifted the Bills may feel like he is worth the risk. He checks the character box so he will not fail because he is lazy or not willing to be coached. He would be more like Jake Locker than a Jamarcus Russell. But I believe Allen is more physically gifted than Locker (more height, larger frame and better arm talent). So, yes he could fail but Newton has not been the most accurate NFL passer and Beane still appears to consider him a franchise quarterback. The interview and board process will be huge for Allen.

[machine gun kelly]

To the OP, if you can’t shorten up you’re post, a lot of people. Will not read it. I made the same mistake when I was new to TBD.

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

At this point, I can't write Allen off because of his immense physical tools. Beane was significantly involved with scouting and drafting Cam Newton. He had limited experience and was not the most accurate passer even though his completion percentage was very solid. Allen operates in a pro style offense and was required to make more difficult throws. Yes, he makes some very inaccurate throws but because he is incredibly gifted the Bills may feel like he is worth the risk. He checks the character box so he will not fail because he is lazy or not willing to be coached. He would be more like Jake Locker than a Jamarcus Russell. But I believe Allen is more physically gifted than Locker (more height, larger frame and better arm talent). So, yes he could fail but Newton has not been the most accurate NFL passer and Beane still appears to consider him a franchise quarterback. The interview and board process will be huge for Allen.

Cam Newton was much more accurate in college than Allen has shown. He's also a much better athlete.

[racketmaster]

Just now, machine gun kelly said:

To the OP, if you can’t shorten up you’re post, a lot of people. Will not read it. I made the same mistake when I was new to TBD.

I hear you, but I like to include some real quotes and visit information to back up my opinions. It is definitely not for everyone but there are members that like this kind of stuff and prefer more details rather than less. 

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Cam Newton was much more accurate in college than Allen has shown. He's also a much better athlete.

As a runner he is better, but I would say that Allen's arm talent is better. He has made throws on the run that are ridiculous and only a few players in the game could ever imagine making. I agree, Cam's completion percentage was higher but he was in a different offense. He ran read option and had more single reads. Allen has operated in a more pro style offense and he is consistently asked to make more challenging throws. I still agree that he needs to be more accurate. I think Cam was at 66% and Allen was at 56% but if Cam was asked to make the same throws Allen made at Wyoming I think his percentage goes down some. And it shows as in the NFL, Cam has had accuracy issues but is still considered a franchise quarterback. Allen is intriguing but is certainly a risk and may be one the Bills are willing to take because he checks so many other boxes. 

[macaroni]

The Bills also have a tendency toward 4 year starters who have improved their body of work each year ... with the aforementioned "attributes" adding in a 4 year starter, I also strongly feel that Mason Rudolph is the QB that they are targeting. With all of the "QB needy" teams he just may not last until pick 21/22 ... we just MAY have to trade up a bit to get him. 

[sirebors]

9 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

To the OP, if you can’t shorten up you’re post, a lot of people. Will not read it. I made the same mistake when I was new to TBD.

I disagree. I rarely post on this message board but I check it and read it almost hourly and have for a dozen years. This is exactly the type of post that I come to TBD hoping to find and to be able to read. I am beyond sick of people complaining about multiple "similar" postings or worried about 'posting counts'  and that being a determining factor in an individuals credibility or love for the Bills. In fact I almost prefer new postings so i don't have to scroll through 80 pages of mostly nonsense. I compliment this poster, and would like to say thank you for your effort and insight and please continue the good work. I have liked Rudolph for over a year and have predicted him to be the Bills choice for just as long. Thanks again. 

[racketmaster]

3 minutes ago, macaroni said:

The Bills also have a tendency toward 4 year starters who have improved their body of work each year ... with the aforementioned "attributes" adding in a 4 year starter, I also strongly feel that Mason Rudolph is the QB that they are targeting. With all of the "QB needy" teams he just may not last until pick 21/22 ... we just MAY have to trade up a bit to get him. 

Great point. Rudolph definitely checks the experience and maturity box as far as attributes the Bills prefer. I would be concerned about CIN, BAL, and possibly SD taking a shot at him before the Bills pick. If the Bills really covet him they may seriously consider moving up a few slots. 

[Dkollidas]

To the OP:

 

I think you have it down in spades. One thing I will contest though. Passing deep isn’t only about strength, it’s also about accuracy, touch and anticipation. I think those factors make Rudolph the best downfield passer in the class. He might not throw 30yards downfield with the most velocity, but he gets it to his man in tight windows (yes, he does) and puts it in a spot where the receiver can run after the catch. 

 

I think exactly like you do though. Darnold is their number 1. But he’ll go to Cleveland. Mayfield has too many height & character questions. Rosen has too many injury & character questions. Allen has too many accuracy, and pocket presence questions (he bails our way too much for my liking). 

 

Rudolph will be their #2, also because of the fact he won’t likely be picked in the top 15, maybe even not the 1st round, but QB’s always go earlier than anticipated. 

Edited February 15, 2018 by Dkollidas

[Jamie Muellers Ghost]

Anything we hear this early usually ends up being smokescreen or rumor.

[Best Player Available]

42 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

It’s draft season and it is always an exciting time especially when the Bills are in the market for a quarterback. It is no secret the Bills are in the market for a quarterback and if it is, then it is the worst kept secret. They let their feelings about Taylor and his future be known when pulling him for Peterman in the middle of a playoff race. It is possible Taylor could be back but only to finish out his last year as a bridge. The Bills regime is going into their second year and they know they must find a franchise quarterback or they will not have long term job security. They are going to do everything possible in this draft to find their quarterback. So with that said, I enjoy putting on my Sherlock Holmes hat and predicting (mocking) quarterbacks who would be a fit for the Bills. So the following is not a true analysis and quarterback ranking, but rather who are the quarterbacks most valued by the Bills?

 

In order to come up with an educated guess it is useful to first look at what type of quarterback the Bills might be looking for. I have listed a few generally known facts about the organization and some additional attributes mentioned by our GM. The McBeane era has brought significant changes to the organization and the changes will reflect on what quarterback they will likely target.

 

Here are some attributes that the current organization appears to place a high emphasis on (no particular order): 1. High moral character 2. Willingness to compete 3. Being a good teammate 4. Smart 5. Emphasis on experience and maturity 6. Importance of faith and family 7. High work ethic 8. Availability and durability, 9. Scheme and culture fit.There are probably more but McDermott and Beane appear to have emphasized these traits in the types of players they have maintained and acquired. When drafting players and acquiring players the Bills seem to place an emphasis on these traits. Not every player will be a perfect 10 on the list of characteristics but the Bills appear to want players that possess all or most of those characteristics. The 2017 draft and free agents signings demonstrate this. The players traded away also demonstrate this. After the Watkins and Darby traded McDermott was quoted as saying “the Bills were trying to build a team – not just collect talent.

 

So we have a pretty good idea of what attributes the Bills value in all of their players. But what are some of the specific characteristics the Bills may be looking for in a quarterback? The following quote from Brandon Beane gives us some insight into this area:  "Obviously, you draw them up, from a physical standpoint, they look like Cam (Newton)," Beane said. "But how many are there like that? You want a guy, the stature, the height, you know, they're standing over, they're not worried about linemen in their face. It gives them the vision and all that. Arm strength. But the one thing that people I think miss a little bit when they're watching, you know, the college game schematically has just been so dummied down that these guys know before the ball's snapped right where they're going. There's no progressions. There's no audibiling. That's the challenge that the college guys have, and it's brutal. And these quarterbacks that are getting drafted high that have never taken a snap from center, have never called an audible. That's tough. The intangibles are the other thing that you can't necessarily measure from the film. I can turn on the film and watch some things. You obviously want to see quarterbacks live, but what's this guy's makeup? What's his leadership? Do guys rally behind him? I go back to Carolina. Jake Delhomme, one of the greatest leaders I've ever been around. He was undrafted. The guy willed himself to lead the team the years he was in Carolina. His intangibles were a 12 on a one-to-10 scale. And that's how he overcame his athletic limitations. I kind of went around the question a little bit, but you're looking for a lot of things, some of it physically we can all see. But a lot of it you can't necessarily see." 

 

So here we can infer that Beane values (1) Size (ideal height and weight), (2) Arm Strength (3) Mental side of game (4) Leadership. In another recent quote, Beane was asked what quarterbacks he had scouted live and he responded by saying "I've seen all of them that matter," Beane said. "I've seen every one of them that could potentially be in the first round."

This statement is very telling to me. Beane said he has seen all the quarterbacks that matter (ones that could be drafted by in first round). He is basically telling us that the Bills are looking for their franchise quarterback in the first round because those are the ones that matter. So who has Beane visited this college season?

 

Bills Mafia Dean Kindig has a list of visits made by Beane to colleges (updated 12/4/17):

USC/Darnold 3 times, Oklahoma State Rudolph 2 times plus a reported Bowl game visit by Beane and Schoen, UCLA Rosen 2 times, Oklahoma Mayfield 1 time, Louisville Jackson 1 time and Wyoming Allen 1 time.

 

It is possible that some of the visits are not accurate but I will trust the writer as he has been tracking this activity for the past few years. Coincidentally, the above six quarterbacks are the only ones that are consistently found in the first rounds of mock drafts. Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield and Allen are found being drafted in the first round of most every mock draft out there. Rudolph and Jackson are found going in a significant number of mock drafts but not at the same level as the other four. No other quarterbacks are found going in the first round on a significant basis. Beane reportedly visited Washington State (Falk) 2 times as well but Falk is not considered a first round quarterback in most mock drafts. Mike White and Lauletta’s respective colleges were not on the list of visits.

 

Conclusions/Predictions:

So that is a lot of information to digest. Hopefully, you were patient to sift through it all for yourself. Maybe you have and made your own conclusions. Here are my takeaways from this information/evidence:

DARNOLD: He appears to fit the character attributes the organization is looking for in a quarterback. Work ethic and coachable. No real off the field issues and no concerns from teammates and coaches that have been made public. Darnold also fits the physical attributes Beane appears to be looking for in a quarterback. There are concerns with his throwing motion and decision making, but I think he checks most all the boxes for the Bills. Enough where I believe the Bills would trade up for him if they could get in the right spot.

ALLEN: Same with Darnold, Allen checks all the boxes for the type of character the Bills are looking for in a quarterback. He also is the most physically gifted quarterback to come out since probably Cam Newton in terms of size, mobility and arm strength. So those boxes will be checks. There are concerns about his accuracy, read defenses and throw with touch. But I don’t think any of these things will automatically take Allen out of consideration. To me, the interview process and visits with coaches will be the determining factor for Allen. If he shows really well on the board and proves that he can process and retain information being thrown at him he could be a target for a trade up. He is in consideration.

RUDOLPH: I have watched videos and interviews with all the top quarterbacks and my sense is that Rudolph will blow the Bills decision makers away with his intangibles and character. He reminds me of a young Peyton Manning in the way he conducts himself. I don’t know what “It” is but he definitely has the “It” part down in spades. He also has the size and stature the Bills are looking for in a quarterback. However, I think the Bills will have reservations regarding his arm strength. I have questions about his arm strength and it is definitely the weakest of the top 6 quarterbacks. But is it “Strong Enough” as Philip Rivers famously said about his arm during the draft process. Combine and pro days will tell us more. But Beane did reference Delhomme as a franchise quarterback and he was not one with the strongest of arm or possessing any great mobility. He was off the charts in the intangibles department and that is where I believe Rudolph will also fall in the Bills eyes. I see Rudolph as a very real possibility at 21 if he demonstrates that his arm is just strong enough.

MAYFIELD: Mayfield had the drunken incident in which he ran away from the cops but otherwise no other off the field issues. But he has displayed himself in a brash and almost cocky manner on the field and was involved in the crotch grabbing incident. . Mayfield is a regular on social media and can be sensitive about criticism.  These may not be deal breakers if Mayfield was a LB or WR. But we are talking quarterback and the Face of the Franchise. McBeane will be attaching their reputation and careers on this draft pick and Mayfield will likely fail the maturity test. In addition, Mayfield fails the size and stature test. This is probably not a deal breaker but it is rare to find franchise quarterbacks at his size. Brees and Wilson are the exceptions but they are also exceptionally mature individuals and were so coming out of college. I just don’t see Mayfield as a fit and would be surprised if the Bills targeted him.

ROSEN: With Rosen, there have been consistent rumblings about his demeanor/attitude going back to his days at the Elite 11 camp. Reading into his background, my sense on him is that he grew up a privileged kid and has a “I’m better than you” type demeanor about him. He is extremely smart but maybe too smart for his own good sometimes. He has had issues with past coaches like Dilfer and Mora and it is likely due to Rosen thinking he is smarter than his coaches (sometimes he might be). But there are ways of using your intelligence in a more productive manner. Rosen needs to grow in his maturity and recognize that there is a time and place to question coaches and you must do so in a tactful manner without being dismissive toward instruction. There have been rumblings that his attitude rubs teammates the wrong way as well. As much as McBeane emphasize team culture and character, I just can’t imagine that Rosen would be a fit for the Bills. In addition, there have been questions about how passionate Rosen is about the game of football. Is he going to walk away and pursue other interests? Will he be truly committed to his team? He has durability concerns missing a significant amount of games in college to include concussion concerns. If he gets 1 or 2 more concussions in the NFL, is he just going to walk away because he can pursue another passion? I just don’t see a match with the Bills and I would be absolutely shocked if the Bills traded up for him. In fact, I would not be surprised if the Bills passed on Rosen if he fell to them at 21. McBeane value the right fit over talent. No matter where Rosen would be drafted by the Bills, he is not the right fit for this organization.

JACKSON: I’ll admit that I have spent the least amount of time researching Jackson. I have watched only 4 of his games and just 3-4 interviews. I have read some articles on him as well but have not does a deep dive into him. By all accounts he has solid character. He is not particularly impressive during interviews but nothing that raises a red flag. In my mind he has 2 things going wrong for him as far as his chances of being drafted by the Bills. First, he is smaller in stature and has a more slender build. The Bills would prefer him to be taller and thicker. Second, and probably more importantly is that he is similar to Tyrod Taylor and not just because they are both black quarterbacks. Jackson is an exceptional runner, probably faster and more explosive than Tyrod. He ran a lot in college and he was successful at it. But quarterbacks that run as much as he did in college do so at the detriment of improving as a passer. The NFL is a different animal. He will make some plays with his legs but eventually the speed and skill of NFL defenders will get to him as they do with Tyrod. And can his more slender frame hold up to NFL collisions? And when defenses scheme to take away his running lanes, will he be prepared to make NFL throws on a consistent basis. We have seen this with Tyrod. He has some success but teams that remain disciplined against the run and keep him in the pocket tend to have success against him. The Bills appear very ready to move on from Tyrod and it would be an odd choice to me if they were to replace him with Jackson. I actually, could see Jackson ending up on a team like the Bengals, Baltimore or San Diego. He could sit behind a veteran but also be used in special situations. Again, I would be surprised if the Bills targeted him as their franchise quarterback.

SUMMARY:

Things can change but as I see it right now I put the following percentages of the Bills drafting the following qbs: Rudolph 50%, Allen 25%, Darnold 20% and the remaining field 5%. My bet is Rudolph because he should be available for the Bills at 21 or maybe they have to just move up a few spots at a reasonable price. Darnold will probably end up at #1 and I don’t see the Browns moving out of that spot. If he slips past the NYG, the Bills will probably try and take a major run at him. Maybe even try and trade with the Giants if they are willing to go with Eli for another few years (probably unlikely scenario). If Allen passes the interview process and mental tests from our coaches he could be in play for a trade up, especially if he gets past Denver and the Jets. Things could change, but that’s how I would handicap it right now.

Is a Cliff notes version available?

The QB if drafted by the Bills. Will have 2 arms, 2 legs, and most likely a head.

 

[racketmaster]

2 minutes ago, Dkollidas said:

To the OP:

 

I think you have it down in spades. One thing I will contest though. Passing deep isn’t only about strength, it’s also about accuracy, touch and anticipation. I think those factors make Rudolph the best downfield passer in the class. He might not throw 30yards downfield with the most velocity, but he gets it to his man in tight windows (yes, he does) and puts it in a spot where the receiver can run after the catch. 

 

I think exactly like you do though. Darnold is their number 1. But he’ll go to Cleveland. Mayfield has too many height & character questions. Rosen has too many injury & character questions. Allen has too many accuracy, and pocket presence questions (he bails our way too much for my liking). 

 

Rudolph will be their #2, also because of the fact he won’t likely be picked in the top 15, maybe even not the 1st round, but QB’s always go earlier than anticipated. 

I have gone back and forth on Rudolph and it all comes down to his arm strength for me. If he could improve his velocity just a little bit, he has a chance to be a Philip Rivers type quarterback. I agree with his accuracy. He throws with great tough and has very good ball placement. He puts balls in spots to allow his wrs to go up and get it just like the elite qbs do in the NFL. Some say they are risky throws but he does not throw many picks and he realizes that his wrs see the ball coming and are more prepared to make a play on it than the db. His deep ball is very good to me, although he does put a little too much air under it (again reminds me of Rivers a little and his deep ball) but the ball almost always lands where his wrs can make a play on it. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

43 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

It’s draft season and it is always an exciting time especially when the Bills are in the market for a quarterback. It is no secret the Bills are in the market for a quarterback and if it is, then it is the worst kept secret. They let their feelings about Taylor and his future be known when pulling him for Peterman in the middle of a playoff race. It is possible Taylor could be back but only to finish out his last year as a bridge. The Bills regime is going into their second year and they know they must find a franchise quarterback or they will not have long term job security. They are going to do everything possible in this draft to find their quarterback. So with that said, I enjoy putting on my Sherlock Holmes hat and predicting (mocking) quarterbacks who would be a fit for the Bills. So the following is not a true analysis and quarterback ranking, but rather who are the quarterbacks most valued by the Bills?

 

I

 

 

Bills Mafia Dean Kindig has a list of visits made by Beane to colleges (updated 12/4/17):

USC/Darnold 3 times, Oklahoma State Rudolph 2 times plus a reported Bowl game visit by Beane and Schoen, UCLA Rosen 2 times, Oklahoma Mayfield 1 time, Louisville Jackson 1 time and Wyoming Allen 1 time.

 

 

Conclusions/Predictions:

 

RUDOLPH: I have watched videos and interviews with all the top quarterbacks and my sense is that Rudolph will blow the Bills decision makers away with his intangibles and character. He reminds me of a young Peyton Manning in the way he conducts himself. I don’t know what “It” is but he definitely has the “It” part down in spades. He also has the size and stature the Bills are looking for in a quarterback. However, I think the Bills will have reservations regarding his arm strength. I have questions about his arm strength and it is definitely the weakest of the top 6 quarterbacks. But is it “Strong Enough” as Philip Rivers famously said about his arm during the draft process. Combine and pro days will tell us more. But Beane did reference Delhomme as a franchise quarterback and he was not one with the strongest of arm or possessing any great mobility. He was off the charts in the intangibles department and that is where I believe Rudolph will also fall in the Bills eyes. I see Rudolph as a very real possibility at 21 if he demonstrates that his arm is just strong enough.

SUMMARY:

 

Things can change but as I see it right now I put the following percentages of the Bills drafting the following qbs: Rudolph 50%, Allen 25%, Darnold 20% and the remaining field 5%. My bet is Rudolph because he should be available for the Bills at 21 or maybe they have to just move up a few spots at a reasonable price. Darnold will probably end up at #1 and I don’t see the Browns moving out of that spot. If he slips past the NYG, the Bills will probably try and take a major run at him. Maybe even try and trade with the Giants if they are willing to go with Eli for another few years (probably unlikely scenario). If Allen passes the interview process and mental tests from our coaches he could be in play for a trade up, especially if he gets past Denver and the Jets. Things could change, but that’s how I would handicap it right now.

 

...GREAT work and thorough analysis.....I concur that Rudolph is McBeane's pick at 21/22......most mocks have him there at 21 and some even having him slipping to the 2nd......McBeane gets HIS guy (will differ with many opinions here as expected), while preserving his draft capital and FA dollars to build this roster for the long haul.....

[racketmaster]

12 minutes ago, Jamie Muellers Ghost said:

Anything we hear this early usually ends up being smokescreen or rumor.

I believe the smokescreens are things we start seeing around the time of the college all star games begin. The draft starts to become real and teams really begin to button up. It is important to me to know who Beane has been scouting in the fall as he is a busy man and will only attend a certain amount of games. You can bet your last dollar that the most important position Beane was scouting this past fall was quarterback. And what the organizational philosophy happens to be is also important. What the HC deems to be important and traits that the GM values is also important. Beane would not say much now but he gave us some nuggets in July after taking over as GM that I believe give us some insight into his thinking. I doubt he decided to try and put smokescreens out in July after just taking over as the new GM but it is always possible. 

Edited February 15, 2018 by racketmaster

[macaroni]

13 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

Great point. Rudolph definitely checks the experience and maturity box as far as attributes the Bills prefer. I would be concerned about CIN, BAL, and possibly SD taking a shot at him before the Bills pick. If the Bills really covet him they may seriously consider moving up a few slots. 

 

The way I see it ... the Browns, Giants, Broncos Jets, and Cardinals will all be QB shopping. Cinci, Balt, and SD COULD take a flier on a QB, but all three have established QBs and I don't see them overly willing to spend a first round pick on one. With Cousins going to one of the QB needy teams (eliminating them from the draft competition) I see 4 teams above us who I feel will defiantly draft a first round QB.

 

If one were to assume the QBs get drafted in the order of the current hype/trendiness, that leaves the Bills with the need to only leapfrog the Cardinals to get a better than even chance to draft Rudolph. 

[ghostwriter]

I think Josh Allen ends up in Buffalo, just a gut feeling. He sits most of the year behind a veteran, comes in late in the year and dominates.

[racketmaster]

2 minutes ago, macaroni said:

 

The way I see it ... the Browns, Giants, Broncos Jets, and Cardinals will all be QB shopping. Cinci, Balt, and SD COULD take a flier on a QB, but all three have established QBs and I don't see them overly willing to spend a first round pick on one. With Cousins going to one of the QB needy teams (eliminating them from the draft competition) I see 4 teams above us who I feel will defiantly draft a first round QB.

 

If one were to assume the QBs get drafted in the order of the current hype/trendiness, that leaves the Bills with the need to only leapfrog the Cardinals to get a better than even chance to draft Rudolph. 

Very true. And if the Cardinals were to get Cousins, Foles or maybe one of the MIN. Quarterbacks they may be less inclined to draft one at their spot in the first (they will not take one if they got Cousins or even Foles as they would have to give up assets). 

[BobChalmers]

23 minutes ago, Best Player Available said:

Is a Cliff notes version available?

 

Did you really need to paste the entire OP to make that point?   

 

And yeah, among the rookies Rudolph seems the most like "their guy".  I don't love taking the guy who lost to the other guy (Mayfield) in the big game situation where they played each other.

 

OTOH, Peyton Manning also had concerns raised about his arm strength.  That's why some scouts like Ryan Leaf better.  

Edited February 15, 2018 by BobChalmers