Scout on Rudolph

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

Posted in the Mayock/WGR thread, but it bears reposting here:

 

I like Mayock for what he brings in his role as a media analyst, but that’s as far as it goes. He is not a scout and doesn’t possess a fraction of the insight on all these players as scouts and other personnel evaluators do. It’s just not his full time gig. I take everything he says with a grain of salt. From Sanchez over Stafford to Gabbert over Newton and the many players at positions in between over the years, his “evaluations” leave a lot to be desired. 

 

 

...now there's a well thought out IMMEDIATE disqualifier.......do we even know how much time guys like Mayock, Kyper, McShay, Cosell, etc spend preparing?......I'd bet they invest a helluva lot of time as film rats continually analyzing and probably make a BETTER living than some high and mighty "scout"...........how many folks here bust their butts as film rats continually analyzing (UNCOMPENSATED) and share their work with members?....guess because they're not scouts, they are also not worthy......BTW, my schedule does not allow me time to watch college ball, but ANY TIME I have asked for analytical help here, MANY have responded to help me out and I am infinitely grateful......

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, Commonsense said:

Darnold and Rosen are pipe dreams. Those are the two quarterbacks that stand out from all the others. I don't need to see his grades to understand that.

 

I'd like to see where he has the rest of the guys ranked that would be attainable with the normal use of picks. For instance would he have rather taken Watson/Mahomes at 10 than trade up for Mayfield or wait around for Jackson, Rudolph. 

But you can't just factor out the 2 best prospects in the context of this discussion. That makes absolutely no sense.

[CommonCents]

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

But you can't just factor out the 2 best prospects in the context of this discussion. That makes absolutely no sense.

Of course it does! They could have stayed and got X which one would he take! 

 

We all know who he would take if he is he is willing to trade away 3 1st round picks and a mix of others. That isn't entertaining discussion. Isn't it common knowledge that both Rosen and Darnold are the best two out of the bunch? The rest are all in play. 

 

It could work out in the Bills favor, what if he likes Mayfield the best and can trade the firsts this year and get him? If that is how it shakes out then great. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, Commonsense said:

Of course it does! They could have stayed and got X which one would he take! 

 

We all know who he would take if he is he is willing to trade away 3 1st round picks and a mix of others. That isn't entertaining discussion. Isn't it common knowledge that both Rosen and Darnold are the best two out of the bunch? The rest are all in play. 

 

It could work out in the Bills favor, what if he likes Mayfield the best and can trade the firsts this year and get him? If that is how it shakes out then great. 

You're asking why a team might pass on Palmer/Leftwich/Boller in 2003 knowing that Eli, Rivers, Big Ben and Losman are coming in 2004. If you take Manning & Rivers out of the 2004 class then it might've looked silly, but in reality they are a part of that class.

[CommonCents]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

You're asking why a team might pass on Palmer/Leftwich/Boller in 2003 knowing that Eli, Rivers, Big Ben and Losman are coming in 2004. If you take Manning & Rivers out of the 2004 class then it might've looked silly, but in reality they are a part of that class.

The only purpose those two serve for OBD is pushing the rest of the guys down the board. If your saying they had Darnold and Rosen in mind they should have never brought back Taylor. If they trade away a bunch of picks for either one I will eat my words and enjoy it.

[Kirby Jackson]

23 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

The take on Rudolph is all over the place....and again, I sound like I'm beating a dead horse, but some good evaluators have him as the #1QB in the Draft, others see him as a late Day 2 guy, but I think "most" evaluators have him as a mid 1st to high 2nd round pick, and that's probably fair. I don't think he will ever be Favre-esque, but I can tell you to me he is absolutely Drew Brees but taller....he is accurate, makes all the throws at all levels of the field, is productive, and is a pocket passer....questions about his ability to read an NFL Defense are valid, because right now that same concerns is valid on ALL the QBs in the Draft. But taking credit away from him because he has great WRs, is not valid to me because he still has to make the throws and make the "right" throw as well. 

 

Here are his career stats:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/mason-rudolph-1.html

 

Please look not just at the gaudy numbers from his Senior year, but watch his improvement from his starting year as a Sophmore until this year....the are PROGRESSIVE, and statistically significantly so in regards to Yards, Completion Percentage (Accuracy), TDs, low amount of INTs, and Rating. Not to mention he just won the Johnny Unitas Award beating out Baker Mayfield. Take what you will from it, but this kid will be a decent to great QB depending on the system and depending on how he is coached at the NFL level.

FWIW, I’ve heard that NFL people like him less than media people. It is a little like Jimmy Clausen. He isn’t my favorite prospect but wouldn’t hate him in the 2nd. I actually think he is going to go a little later than people think (round 2 somewhere). 

[K-9]

14 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...now there's a well thought out IMMEDIATE disqualifier.......do we even know how much time guys like Mayock, Kyper, McShay, Cosell, etc spend preparing?......I'd bet they invest a helluva lot of time as film rats continually analyzing and probably make a BETTER living than some high and mighty "scout"...........how many folks here bust their butts as film rats continually analyzing (UNCOMPENSATED) and share their work with members?....guess because they're not scouts, they are also not worthy......BTW, my schedule does not allow me time to watch college ball, but ANY TIME I have asked for analytical help here, MANY have responded to help me out and I am infinitely grateful......

Ffs,  unworthy? I didn’t come anywhere close to saying that about Mayock. 

 

Like I said, I like him for what he brings as a media figure. But I take his insights with a grain of salt. 

 

He is not a scout and he doesn’t possess the same wealth of knowledge and insight as the scouting community. Video is a wonderful tool, but it is simply not the same as seeing players in person, interviewing them and their coaches, etc. His career as a TV color analyst in the booth certainly doesn’t afford him the thousands of man hours required to bring that kind of expertise to bear, either. That’s not a knock on him, just the reality of the matter. 

 

I don’t know how many hours the various talking head pundits put in and I’m sure they work hard at what they do. But I am familiar with the work of several league scouts and other personnel evaluators over the years and I doubt it comes close to that both in terms of video analysis and in person evaluations. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

12 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

FWIW, I’ve heard that NFL people like him less than media people. It is a little like Jimmy Clausen. He isn’t my favorite prospect but wouldn’t hate him in the 2nd. I actually think he is going to go a little later than people think (round 2 somewhere). 

 

 

...maybe I'm reading too much into it, but thought it was interesting that McBeane PERSONALLY scouted him at the WVU game as well as his bowl game.....not sure if that is the norm or if McBeane would dispatch a staffer to do the scouting if interest was tepid at best............

[BigBuff423]

10 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

FWIW, I’ve heard that NFL people like him less than media people. It is a little like Jimmy Clausen. He isn’t my favorite prospect but wouldn’t hate him in the 2nd. I actually think he is going to go a little later than people think (round 2 somewhere). 

 

QBs really are so very difficult to project to the NFL...one thing I don't like about most of the QBs except Josh Allen, is they don't play in a Pro Style Offense and for Rudolph that's just par for the course with the rest of the highly regarded QBs. I like Rudolph because only he and Mayfield (out of that projected top 6) check all the Parcells QB evaluation boxes. I like that he started 3 years, and I like all of the other things I mentioned up thread. And you may very well be right about him, I don't think anyone can stand here and say, I'll defend my line to the grave with such certainty because of the fluid nature of the NFL. But, I would take Rudolph over everyone expected to go in the 1st except Rosen, and that to me is based solely on the "potential".....I'm not a Darnold fan for what it would cost to get him and I don't think Mayfield's game translates to the NFL very well - all similarities to Brees notwithstanding - Allen's accuracy is very suspect IMHO and that rarely if ever improves and usually spells doom for QBs going into NFL. If I'm waiting to the 2nd round, I take Mike White.....now, if for some reason Darnold is available at 21 (which we know he won't be, but stranger things have happened) AND the Bills have themselves a bridge Vet for a year or two, then I'm good with it because I DO think Darnold's issues are correctable and his potential is nearly as high as Rosen's....anyways, I like these debates as long as everyone keeps it respectful and we all remind ourselves, we're not employed in the NFL doing these kinds of evaluations, and there's a reason for that....

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

...maybe I'm reading too much into it, but thought it was interesting that McBeane PERSONALLY scouted him at the WVU game as well as his bowl game.....not sure if that is the norm or if McBeane would dispatch a staffer to do the scouting if interest was tepid at best............

It tells me that there is some level of interest. At the same time if he is a 2nd round prospect on most boards it may be as simple as, “if we can’t get ____ we are comfortable with him there.” The Bills have been pretty thorough with this class so far. 

2 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

QBs really are so very difficult to project to the NFL...one thing I don't like about most of the QBs except Josh Allen, is they don't play in a Pro Style Offense and for Rudolph that's just par for the course with the rest of the highly regarded QBs. I like Rudolph because only he and Mayfield (out of that projected top 6) check all the Parcells QB evaluation boxes. I like that he started 3 years, and I like all of the other things I mentioned up thread. And you may very well be right about him, I don't think anyone can stand here and say, I'll defend my line to the grave with such certainty because of the fluid nature of the NFL. But, I would take Rudolph over everyone expected to go in the 1st except Rosen, and that to me is based solely on the "potential".....I'm not a Darnold fan for what it would cost to get him and I don't think Mayfield's game translates to the NFL very well - all similarities to Brees notwithstanding - Allen's accuracy is very suspect IMHO and that rarely if ever improves and usually spells doom for QBs going into NFL. If I'm waiting to the 2nd round, I take Mike White.....now, if for some reason Darnold is available at 21 (which we know he won't be, but stranger things have happened) AND the Bills have themselves a bridge Vet for a year or two, then I'm good with it because I DO think Darnold's issues are correctable and his potential is nearly as high as Rosen's....anyways, I like these debates as long as everyone keeps it respectful and we all remind ourselves, we're not employed in the NFL doing these kinds of evaluations, and there's a reason for that....

Rosen has been my guy since his freshman year. He has some things that make people scratch their heads but I see a potential star. He was born to throw a football. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 minute ago, K-9 said:

Ffs,  unworthy? I didn’t come anywhere close to saying that about Mayock. 

 

Like I said, I like him for what he brings as a media figure. But I take his insights with a grain of salt. 

 

He is not a scout and he doesn’t possess the same wealth of knowledge and insight as the scouting community. Video is a wonderful tool, but it is simply not the same as seeing players in person, interviewing them and their coaches, etc. His career as a TV color analyst in the booth certainly doesn’t afford him the thousands of man hours required to bring that kind of expertise to bear, either. That’s not a knock on him, just the reality of the matter. 

 

I don’t know how many hours the various talking head pundits put in and I’m sure they work hard at what they do. But I am familiar with the work of several league scouts and other personnel evaluators over the years and I doubt it comes close to that both in terms of video analysis and in person evaluations. 

 

 

 

...sorry for the confusion......I thought I was responding to a quote you found in the article..........but if that was your opinion, we're good as I respect it period.....that is what is supposed to make this place work...my opinion is I see Brylcream Mel and Beiber McShay as ESPN theatrics.....others may 100% value their assessments......Maycock has had some QB gaffes as they all do....Sanchez was his top rated in 2009....Bryce Petty was in his top 5 for 2015...or "Manziel is a better passer coming out of college than Russell Wilson (COUGH)".......we're good bud......

[K-9]

2 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

 

...sorry for the confusion......I thought I was responding to a quote you found in the article..........but if that was your opinion, we're good as I respect it period.....that is what is supposed to make this place work...my opinion is I see Brylcream Mel and Beiber McShay as ESPN theatrics.....others may 100% value their assessments......Maycock has had some QB gaffes as they all do....Sanchez was his top rated in 2009....Bryce Petty was in his top 5 for 2015...or "Manziel is a better passer coming out of college than Russell Wilson (COUGH)".......we're good bud......

[corta765]

47 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

Darnold and Rosen are pipe dreams. Those are the two quarterbacks that stand out from all the others. I don't need to see his grades to understand that.

 

I'd like to see where he has the rest of the guys ranked that would be attainable with the normal use of picks. For instance would he have rather taken Watson/Mahomes at 10 than trade up for Mayfield or wait around for Jackson, Rudolph. 

 

Dude wtf does it matter? By the time you would get a true final result with any of these QBs or the two you have massive crush on from last draft your GM either will be here because he drafted his QB right or gone. People like you live in this prism that the rest of the team does not matter and literally everything is the QB or nothing. Second you basically want your team to lay their cards completely out for you on how exactly they view the QB's something no team every in their right mind wuld do. For as much as the NFL is a QB driven league the talent on your roster still really freaking matters as does your coach. The Bills had about 15 holes walking into last season and still have about another 10 to fill this offseason. They calculated correctly that this draft would have more QB talent, got a lot of picks to go after one and build the rest of the roster. If you look at some of the biggest successes at QB in the NFL they walked into situations where the team had talent so as the grew as a QB the rest of the roster was there to go from Brady to Rodgers and on the inverse biggest flops because of lack of talent/coaching.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I think it might take a year or two but I see Luke Falk being one of the top QB's from this draft.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

13 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It tells me that there is some level of interest. At the same time if he is a 2nd round prospect on most boards it may be as simple as, “if we can’t get ____ we are comfortable with him there.” The Bills have been pretty thorough with this class so far. 

Rosen has been my guy since his freshman year. He has some things that make people scratch their heads but I see a potential star. He was born to throw a football. 

 

 

...not seeing college ball and depending on solely what I read here and "out there", Rosen requires a definite move up.....just a hunch, but I think McBeane got a pretty good idea from meeting with Smith's agent, Condon to see what the tariff would be and was scared off....my gut says he will be a conservative preservationist with both draft capital and FA dollars....value in body count to fill multiple holes......so what is your assessment as far as what it takes to land Rosen and does McBeane pull the trigger?.....

[CommonCents]

35 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

Dude wtf does it matter? By the time you would get a true final result with any of these QBs or the two you have massive crush on from last draft your GM either will be here because he drafted his QB right or gone. People like you live in this prism that the rest of the team does not matter and literally everything is the QB or nothing. Second you basically want your team to lay their cards completely out for you on how exactly they view the QB's something no team every in their right mind wuld do. For as much as the NFL is a QB driven league the talent on your roster still really freaking matters as does your coach. The Bills had about 15 holes walking into last season and still have about another 10 to fill this offseason. They calculated correctly that this draft would have more QB talent, got a lot of picks to go after one and build the rest of the roster. If you look at some of the biggest successes at QB in the NFL they walked into situations where the team had talent so as the grew as a QB the rest of the roster was there to go from Brady to Rodgers and on the inverse biggest flops because of lack of talent/coaching.

They have more holes this offseason than they did heading into TC. That's not what we were talking about though. The Pegulas mishandled last offseason that's what we were going on about. I'm happy McBeane is here and I'm sure I have contributed much more discussion relative to team building than you have so I'm not sure why you say "people like you" 

[BillsFan4]

6 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

That shouldnt be the question, considering this FO wasnt in place. McD was here, but that is it. He would have been crazy to rely on Whaley's team's QB scouting reports to pin his HC career on so early in. Completely different scouting and personnel department between 2017 draft and 2018 draft.

 

To that point though, I'd hope this staff doesnt make the same mistake as the last one, and not move forward quick enough with another QB pick. It could definitely be argued that the Bills should have been looking at drafting another QB in 2015 since EJ wasnt developing as hoped and they already knew 2013 was a weak year for QBs.

 

This FO needs to make it's pick AND be ready to make its next pick until they find a QB.

 

I have said this same thing multiple times myself and I think it's something that some don't take into consideration. 

 

McDermott was what, 2 months into his first time as a head coach - a position he has worked his arse off for the last 2 decades to earn. And he was clearly working with a GM + scouting staff that he had zero faith in (and most likely knew would be replaced right after the draft). I can't really say I blame him for not gambling his entire head coaching career on a Whaley picked QB...

 

plus then he's sticking the new GM with a QB drafted in the top 10 that he may or may not like/want (and it wouldn't be very easy to walk away from that QB for a while).

 

Its not like Whaley had some good track record at the QB position, either.  

 

Honestly, I had no faith left in Whaley myself when it came to the QB position. I didnt like the traits that he seemed to prioritize in his QBs. That was the main reason that I didn't really want the Bills drafting a QB at #10 last year. I just didn't trust Whaley to get it right, and I figured if he blew it again we'd be stuck with another EJ for the next 4-5 years (especially with it being a top 10 pick).. And with how strong the QB class was supposed to be this year, my fear was repeating 2013 all over again - where we draft the wrong QB in the wrong draft year and watch in subsequent years while other teams draft their franchise guys in stronger draft classes. 

 

This year i feel way different. I know that Beane is totally unproven at this point, but I just have more hope/faith that he (and the top notch front office/scouting staff he put together) will get it right. It's a shame that this front office wasn't here before last year's draft... 

Edited February 13, 2018 by BillsFan4

[NewEra]

Dude throws the deep ball as high as he does far.  I don’t  often disagree with mayock, but I’ll continue my “agenda”.....JUST SAY NO TO MASON RUDOLPH.  

[Kirby Jackson]

34 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

...not seeing college ball and depending on solely what I read here and "out there", Rosen requires a definite move up.....just a hunch, but I think McBeane got a pretty good idea from meeting with Smith's agent, Condon to see what the tariff would be and was scared off....my gut says he will be a conservative preservationist with both draft capital and FA dollars....value in body count to fill multiple holes......so what is your assessment as far as what it takes to land Rosen and does McBeane pull the trigger?.....

I actually believe that the Bills are going into the top 5. I believe that has been the plan all along. I think that it will be something like 21-22 and next year’s #2. The new draft value chart has picks 21 & 22 worth between the 3rd and 4th pick. They would pay the premium of the 2019 2nd. I think that Indy is a logical target at 3 and Cleveland at 4. The Colts are a talent devoid roster and could use the quantity. The Browns have a new regime every other year that wants their own guys. If they take the QB at 1 it may make sense for them to take a deal like that and try to get Guice, Josh Jackson & a 2019 2nd rounder instead of Fitzpatrick OR Barkley. 

43 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I think it might take a year or two but I see Luke Falk being one of the top QB's from this draft.

He’s had a nice offseason so far. He may be the guy that goes a little higher than people think.

[Augie]

26 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I actually believe that the Bills are going into the top 5. I believe that has been the plan all along. I think that it will be something like 21-22 and next year’s #2. The new draft value chart has picks 21 & 22 worth between the 3rd and 4th pick. They would pay the premium of the 2019 2nd. I think that Indy is a logical target at 3 and Cleveland at 4. The Colts are a talent devoid roster and could use the quantity. The Browns have a new regime every other year that wants their own guys. If they take the QB at 1 it may make sense for them to take a deal like that and try to get Guice, Josh Jackson & a 2019 2nd rounder instead of Fitzpatrick OR Barkley. 

He’s had a nice offseason so far. He may be the guy that goes a little higher than people think.

 

Would you still see going to 3 or 4 if Rosen and Darnold are gone in the top 2 picks? If so, who is the target???