The “Draft Capital” is over rated

[OldTimer1960]

There is a LOT of hype about haw draft capital rich the Bills are this year.  Looking at the Bills’ picks this year, it seems that they are a lot poorer than the hype.

 

in round 1, Bills picks 21st and 22nd.  Neither pick is a prime selection.  *Maybe* a trade of both picks gets them high enough to get a good QB prospect.

 

in round 2, both picks are in the bottom third of the round.  All of the exciting players who might be left till round 2 will be long gone by the Bills’ 2 late picks in this round.

 

The Bills’ own pick in round 3 was traded for Kelvin Benjamin- like that trade...  BUT the remaining “draft capital “ in round 3 is the very LAST pick of the round.  It is unlikely that pickbis finding a long-term contributor.  

 

Round 4 may give a shot at a mid-level contributor for a few years and the 5th round picks are fairly long shots to ever be a contributor.

 

Bottom line, I don’t see a QB in this draft worth trading the farm for.  So far this offseason, I have no reason to believe that any of Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph are any worse prospect than Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Mayfield.  

 

With the the recognition that waiting until 21 might get them shut out of the QB derby,  I can’t see a powerful case to pay a lot to trade up...

[Alphadawg7]

16 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

There is a LOT of hype about haw draft capital rich the Bills are this year.  Looking at the Bills’ picks this year, it seems that they are a lot poorer than the hype.

 

in round 1, Bills picks 21st and 22nd.  Neither pick is a prime selection.  *Maybe* a trade of both picks gets them high enough to get a good QB prospect.

 

in round 2, both picks are in the bottom third of the round.  All of the exciting players who might be left till round 2 will be long gone by the Bills’ 2 late picks in this round.

 

The Bills’ own pick in round 3 was traded for Kelvin Benjamin- like that trade...  BUT the remaining “draft capital “ in round 3 is the very LAST pick of the round.  It is unlikely that pickbis finding a long-term contributor.  

 

Round 4 may give a shot at a mid-level contributor for a few years and the 5th round picks are fairly long shots to ever be a contributor.

 

Bottom line, I don’t see a QB in this draft worth trading the farm for.  So far this offseason, I have no reason to believe that any of Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph are any worse prospect than Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Mayfield.  

 

With the the recognition that waiting until 21 might get them shut out of the QB derby,  I can’t see a powerful case to pay a lot to trade up...

 

HOF players are drafted in all rounds and even signed as UDFA.  This notion great prospects aren't available at 21 and 22 or in the 2nd round is nuts.  Teams COVET those picks.  So unless you think the brightest minds in all of football now and history are all wrong in the fact that great players are found regularly with those picks, then this post is misguided. 

 

Look at the general consensus on the 4 best QB's in the NFL today...none taken earlier than 24th pick and only 1 in the first round.  Rogers, Brees (2nd round), Wilson (3rd round), Brady (6th round).  So, sorry but your post is waaaaay off.

Edited February 9, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[hondo in seattle]

8 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

There is a LOT of hype about haw draft capital rich the Bills are this year.  Looking at the Bills’ picks this year, it seems that they are a lot poorer than the hype.

 

in round 1, Bills picks 21st and 22nd.  Neither pick is a prime selection.  *Maybe* a trade of both picks gets them high enough to get a good QB prospect.

 

in round 2, both picks are in the bottom third of the round.  All of the exciting players who might be left till round 2 will be long gone by the Bills’ 2 late picks in this round.

 

The Bills’ own pick in round 3 was traded for Kelvin Benjamin- like that trade...  BUT the remaining “draft capital “ in round 3 is the very LAST pick of the round.  It is unlikely that pickbis finding a long-term contributor.  

 

Round 4 may give a shot at a mid-level contributor for a few years and the 5th round picks are fairly long shots to ever be a contributor.

 

Bottom line, I don’t see a QB in this draft worth trading the farm for.  So far this offseason, I have no reason to believe that any of Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph are any worse prospect than Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Mayfield.  

 

With the the recognition that waiting until 21 might get them shut out of the QB derby,  I can’t see a powerful case to pay a lot to trade up...

 

 

We get four picks in the first two rounds.  Good personnel guys  can do a lot with that. 

 

But you're right: we don't have the draft position  to land a top notch QB.   And if we do trade up to nab a QB, it'll be at the cost of a lot of that 'draft capital.'

 

And we have so many positional needs, any package to get up into the top 5 will mean we'll have several unplugged roster holes after the draft.  

[The Jokeman]

8 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

There is a LOT of hype about haw draft capital rich the Bills are this year.  Looking at the Bills’ picks this year, it seems that they are a lot poorer than the hype.

 

in round 1, Bills picks 21st and 22nd.  Neither pick is a prime selection.  *Maybe* a trade of both picks gets them high enough to get a good QB prospect.

 

in round 2, both picks are in the bottom third of the round.  All of the exciting players who might be left till round 2 will be long gone by the Bills’ 2 late picks in this round.

 

The Bills’ own pick in round 3 was traded for Kelvin Benjamin- like that trade...  BUT the remaining “draft capital “ in round 3 is the very LAST pick of the round.  It is unlikely that pickbis finding a long-term contributor.  

 

Round 4 may give a shot at a mid-level contributor for a few years and the 5th round picks are fairly long shots to ever be a contributor.

 

Bottom line, I don’t see a QB in this draft worth trading the farm for.  So far this offseason, I have no reason to believe that any of Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph are any worse prospect than Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Mayfield.  

 

With the the recognition that waiting until 21 might get them shut out of the QB derby,  I can’t see a powerful case to pay a lot to trade up...

QBs generally get over hyped every draft and one usually falls. See Aaron Rodgers, Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr and Watson as recent examples. I could see one of the "big 3" that as I define as Rosen, Donald or Allen fall. I admit not a fan of the 3rd happens to fall, I have no issue making a move like Chiefs/Texans made last season to get one of them in top 15 if we don't lose Gaines and find a starting DT and LB in free agency. Yet not opposed taking Rudolph at 21 and keeping the rest of picks else where. I mean let's not forget we got White with a pick lower than 22 last year. 

[OldTimer1960]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

HOF players are drafted in all rounds and even signed as UDFA.  This notion great prospects aren't available at 21 and 22 or in the 2nd round is nuts.  Teams COVET those picks.  So unless you think the brightest minds in all of football now and history are all wrong that great players are found regularly with those picks, then this post is misguided. 

You are right $10 is as good as $100 in purchase power.  

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

 

We get four picks in the first two rounds.  Good personnel guys  can do a lot with that. 

 

But you're right: we don't have the draft position  to land a top notch QB.   And if we do trade up to nab a QB, it'll be at the cost of a lot of that 'draft capital.'

 

And we have so many positional needs, any package to get up into the top 5 will mean we'll have several unplugged roster holes after the draft.  

 

Again...the top 4 QBs in the NFL contain one first round player who was taken 24th (Rogers), followed by Brees in the 2nd, Wilson in the 3rd, and Brady in the 6th.  All this nonsense about how you can only find a great QB in the top is silly considering the 4 best were taken after both our picks this year.

 

PS:  Montana taken 82nd pick in 3rd round.  Kurt Warner undrafted.  I mean I could go on and on about how misguided this thread is...and this extends past just QB's.

 

2 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

You are right $10 is as good as $100 in purchase power.  

 

I am right, thanks for acknowledging that.  

Edited February 9, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[OldTimer1960]

2 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

QBs generally get over hyped every draft and one usually falls. See Aaron Rodgers, Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr and Watson as recent examples. I could see one of the "big 3" that as I define as Rosen, Donald or Allen fall. I admit not a fan of the 3rd happens to fall, I have no issue making a move like Chiefs/Texans made last season to get one of them in top 15 if we don't lose Gaines and find a starting DT and LB in free agency. Yet not opposed taking Rudolph at 21 and keeping the rest of picks else where. I mean let's not forget we got White with a pick lower than 22 last year. 

A good starting CB is a lot easier to find (and less valuable in terms of building a winning team) than a good starting QB.

[The Jokeman]

2 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

 

We get four picks in the first two rounds.  Good personnel guys  can do a lot with that. 

 

But you're right: we don't have the draft position  to land a top notch QB.   And if we do trade up to nab a QB, it'll be at the cost of a lot of that 'draft capital.'

 

And we have so many positional needs, any package to get up into the top 5 will mean we'll have several unplugged roster holes after the draft.  

Assuming we don't sign Cousins am sure we could fill three positions in UFA, yes we have depth holes but think the notion the we have so many needs over hyped.

[OldTimer1960]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Again...the top 4 QBs in the NFL contain one first round player who was taken 24th (Rogers), followed by Brees in the 2nd, Wilson in the 3rd, and Brady in the 6th.  All this nonsense about how you can only find a great QB in the top is silly considering the 4 best were taken after both our picks this year.

 

 

I am right, thanks for acknowledging that.  

Why do you have to come off as a know-it-all?  How about a reasonable counter argument?  

[Alphadawg7]

7 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Why do you have to come off as a know-it-all?  How about a reasonable counter argument?  

 

I gave you a reasonable counter argument and showed you the 4 best in the NFL did not come from picks higher than ours, and one only in first round.  You then made a snarky comment back to me, in which I responded accordingly.  

 

So, sorry bud, you got your reasonable argument and decided to go the opposite direction with your reply and I responded back to you with the same tone of response you gave me.  Practice what you preach bud and I will show the same respect back.

Edited February 9, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[The Jokeman]

1 minute ago, OldTimer1960 said:

A good starting CB is a lot easier to find (and less valuable in terms of building a winning team) than a good starting QB.

I've always been in belief you build a roster and the QB is the end piece. We made the playoffs last year with a QB who threw 14 TD passes. I think Rosen can be another Goff/Wentz and gladly trade up for him and fill holes on defense in free agency.

[3rdand12]

1 minute ago, The Jokeman said:

Assuming we don't sign Cousins am sure we could fill three positions in UFA, yes we have depth holes but think the notion the we have so many needs over hyped.

it's a culture of football fans. you can never have enough all pros and 1st round drafts that hit it out of the park.
Fans will never be satiated. never get enough.

 but Bills do have much ado about something in regard to improving the overall roster.
Lotsa work just to define quality depth

1 minute ago, The Jokeman said:

I've always been in belief you build a roster and the QB is the end piece. We made the playoffs last year with a QB who threw 14 TD passes. I think Rosen can be another Goff/Wentz and gladly trade up for him and fill holes on defense in free agency.

But Bills cannot likely get there this year.
regardless. the masses will clamour for him.

you sell the farm Mortgage the children and still may not have The Guy. you sure thats how you want to play the game this year ?

 

: )

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, The Jokeman said:

I've always been in belief you build a roster and the QB is the end piece. We made the playoffs last year with a QB who threw 14 TD passes. I think Rosen can be another Goff/Wentz and gladly trade up for him and fill holes on defense in free agency.

 

I cringe when people lump Goff in with Wentz.  They are not the same IMO, at least not yet.  Goff is not a good downfield thrower while Wentz is coming into his own as a very good QB.  Goff is a short throw dump off specialist as of right now where Gurley and his guys like Kupp, Woods, and Garret thrive, not to mention Austin and Higbee.  I have yet to see him impress me as a QB and I watched every Rams game this year in LA.  

 

By no means has he peaked and has a great coach, but I worry he might disappoint next year.  McVay is a great mind and put him in the right spots to succeed, but with more tape on them, I wonder if they will find the same offense success next year and if Goff will take a step forward or back.  Take away the short passing attack and you can beat the Rams fairly easily.  

[OldTimer1960]

I am not arguing that the Bills don't have ammo to improve the overall roster, but the notion that they have some awesome amount of picks that will let them trade up to get any QB that they want is fallacious.  Further, their selections in round 2 and especially round 3 are underwhelming.

[The Jokeman]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I cringe when people lump Goff in with Wentz.  They are not the same IMO, at least not yet.  Goff is not a good downfield thrower while Wentz is coming into his own as a very good QB.  Goff is a short throw dump off specialist as of right now where Gurley and his guys like Kupp, Woods, and Garret thrive, not to mention Austin and Higbee.  I have yet to see him impress me as a QB and I watched every Rams game this year in LA.  

 

By no means has he peaked and has a great coach, but I worry he might disappoint next year.  McVay is a great mind and put him in the right spots to succeed, but with more tape on them, I wonder if they will find the same offense success next year and if Goff will take a step forward or back.  Take away the short passing attack and you can beat the Rams fairly easily.  

A guy named Brady was a short throw specialist too but he improved over the years. Peyton and Brees don't have the biggest arms either. The Bills need a QB who can flip the field or sustain drives and produce bigger than Tyrod when we're down late. I'll agree Goff isn't as good as Wentz but to me he's miles ahead of Tyrod and why brought them us a QB that Rosen compares to. As to me Goff seems to understand the chess game that makes successful QBs. Something Tyrod doesn't.

Edited February 9, 2018 by The Jokeman

[OldTimer1960]

14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Again...the top 4 QBs in the NFL contain one first round player who was taken 24th (Rogers), followed by Brees in the 2nd, Wilson in the 3rd, and Brady in the 6th.  All this nonsense about how you can only find a great QB in the top is silly considering the 4 best were taken after both our picks this year.

 

PS:  Montana taken 82nd pick in 3rd round.  Kurt Warner undrafted.  I mean I could go on and on about how misguided this thread is...and this extends past just QB's.

 

 

I am right, thanks for acknowledging that.  

I could also cite upside anomalies picked later in the draft ad nauseum.  Are you suggesting that a 3rd round pick(like Wilson) is as likely to find a good starting QB as a high first round pick?  

 

Nobody would argue that there isn't some small chance that you can find a valuable player late in the draft or even as an undrafted FA.  That is not the same as saying that it doesn't matter where in the draft you pick - you have an equal chance of finding a good QB.

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, The Jokeman said:

A guy named Brady was a short throw specialist too but he improved over the years. Peyton and Brees don't have the biggest arms either. The Bills need a QB who can flip the field or sustain drives and produce bigger than Tyrod when we're down late. I'll agree Good isn't as good as Wentz but to me he's miles ahead of Tyrod and why brought them us a QB that Rosen compares to. As to me Goff seems to understand the chess game that makes successful QBs.

 

Yeah, totally agree with he’s better than TT.  I’m not closing the door on Goff by any means.  I was strictly citing the very common comparison link to Wentz given the draft slotting and good records of both teams.  I would certainly take Goff as a young developing QB.  I was only meaning I feel Wentz is still much further along in being a good QB where I am not sold on Goff yet.  

 

Goff has a great coach though who seems to coach to peoples strengths and weaknesses.  But Goff is going to need to be more than what he is to have a sustainable and successful career as a quality starter.  And he certainly is promising and has time, just not where Wentz is yet IMO.

[Augie]

If only we were the Browns.....      

[The Jokeman]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yeah, totally agree with he’s better than TT.  I’m not closing the door on Goff by any means.  I was strictly citing the very common comparison link to Wentz given the draft slotting and good records of both teams.  I would certainly take Goff as a young developing QB.  I was only meaning I feel Wentz is still much further along in being a good QB where I am not sold on Goff yet.  

 

Goff has a great coach though who seems to coach to peoples strengths and weaknesses.  But Goff is going to need to be more than what he is to have a sustainable and successful career as a quality starter.  And he certainly is promising and has time, just not where Wentz is yet IMO.

Valid points, I can't disagree with you. 

[Alphadawg7]

22 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I could also cite upside anomalies picked later in the draft ad nauseum.  Are you suggesting that a 3rd round pick(like Wilson) is as likely to find a good starting QB as a high first round pick?  

 

Nobody would argue that there isn't some small chance that you can find a valuable player late in the draft or even as an undrafted FA.  That is not the same as saying that it doesn't matter where in the draft you pick - you have an equal chance of finding a good QB.

 

Fair enough, so lets look at this anomaly rate by examining the SB winners since the year 2000 since all this is about winning the SB in first place.  Thats 19 SB's in total.  

 

Since the year 2000, here are the Super Bowl Winning QBs.

 

Winner where QB was drafted top 10:  4 

Winner where QB was drafted outside the top 10:  15

 

Further more:  

Winner where QB was drafted before the Bills 21st pick:  6

Winner where QB was drafted after the Bills 21st Pick:  13

 

Further more:  

Winner were QB was taken in first round:  8

Winner were QB was taken in any other round or UDFA:  11

 

And thats just the winning QB's.  Lets keep going though.

 

All time top leading passers:

Taken before the Bills first pick this year:  4

Taken after the Bills first pick this year:  6

 

Guys taken after the 21st pick:  Marino, Montana, Brady, Farve, Brees, Moon, Warner (and Moon and Warner were not even drafted), Wilson, Rogers, and so on and so on.  

So again, the data absolutely shows in every case that draft capital in the first 2 rounds is not over rated.  And this is just QB's and not even factoring in all the other positions you draft for.  Literally the greatest playing now, the greatest of the last 20 years, and the greatest all time were all taken after our pick.  

 

OF COURSE...teams can completely squander great draft capital too...only valuable in the right hands, just ask the Browns.  Or the Colts when they had the 1st and 2nd picks in the same draft and blew both picks.  

Edited February 9, 2018 by Alphadawg7