Staying at #21 and drafting QB ... can you still get a top prospect?

[Luxy312]

2 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  I don't hate you for it but a lot of your reasoning is wishful thinking.  Yes, not all of the 8 in the OP might not choose a QB but the odds are far from zero that they do.  I don't think most teams go by a QB's feel but rather the age listed on the QB's W-2.    Your last paragraph just shoots down the idea of a big trade up.  Glad you brought it up though as a reason not to trade the cow for some magic beans.  

  For how many Quatloo's?

 

My last paragraph may be the most important of the entire post.  For the record, the only guy that I think will be good in the pros is the "short guy" with an attitude in Baker Mayfield.  I do not see him making it out of the top 10 picks in the draft.

[Chuck Wagon]

Bridgewater was viewed as a consensus top pick for the large portion of his final year and into early February of his draft process.

 

Last year no one would have imagined Watson going 12 in early February

 

Geno Smith, Derek Carr, Manziel, Gabbert, Bortles, Clausen, Barkely, Leinart etc.  The list of mock drafters missing on QB draft positions in January/early February is long and distinguished.  Teams aren't saying where they value guys, we are dealing largely with speculation.

[Zebrastripes]

5 minutes ago, Luxy312 said:

 

That's a nice thought, but there's much speculation that the Redskins (despite having traded for and signed Alex Smith) will tag him, such that they maintain some trade value.  I would be shocked if they just let him hit free agency.

I think the redskins saying they are going to tag and trade him is just talk.  They don't have the cap room to do this.  Plus the risk of them getting stuck with him all year is not worth the reward of the draft pick they will receive.

[Luxy312]

Just now, Zebrastripes said:

I think the redskins saying they are going to tag and trade him is just talk.  They don't have the cap room to do this.  Plus the risk of them getting stuck with him all year is not worth the reward of the draft pick they will receive.

 

One of the two tag types can be undone such that they would not be stuck with a contract.  You are right though that a tag would virtually eliminate their ability to do anything in free agency until they moved him.  I believe that's the biggest obstacle to the tag.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Rigotz said:

I've seen a lot of mock drafts that have us getting the fourth best or fifth best QB in the draft by staying at #21.

But that doesn't really seem realistic.

 

Lets look at the teams ahead of us:

1. Browns - Definitely need a QB

2. Giants - Definitely need a QB

5. Broncos - Definitely need a QB

6. Jets - Definitely need a QB

11. Dolphins - I could see them taking a QB (Tannehill is Meh)

12. Bengals - I could see them taking a QB (Dalton is Meh)

15. Cardinals - Definitely need a QB

17. Chargers - I could see them taking a QB (Rivers is old)

 

And lets not forget about the Saints and Steelers, who could trade up a few spots because Brees and Ben have what... 1-2 years left?

 

So ... that's 8 teams in front of us and 2 behind that probably need QBs.

Maybe Keenum / Cousins / Bridgewater fill two or three openings ... but ...

That doesn't exactly leave us with a top choice. What do you guys think?

 

Drafting is not an exact science.  Every year, some guys who are drafted later out-perform guys who are drafted earlier.  Examples would be 2016: Dak Prescott, the 8th QB drafted, outperforming 5 QB drafted ahead of him until you get up to the top 2 picks of Goff and Wentz.  2014: Jimmy Garappolo and Derek Carr, drafted in the 2nd round, are arguably outperforming the 3 QB drafted ahead of them (Bridgewater, prior to injury; Manziel; and Bortles).  2012: Russ Wilson, Nick Foles, and Kirk Cousins outperforming the QB drafted ahead of them Osweiler, Weedon, Tannehill, and Griffon (rookie year excepted) until you get up to the top pick of Luck.

 

It really depends on how good our criteria are for grading QB, and how good our scouting is, a certain element of luck in how the draft falls out, and then of course the coaching and development a guy gets after he's drafted.  What you can say based on past history: 1) the probability of getting a good QB is highest in the top 2 picks 2) since this looks to be a good QB draft year, there will probably be a couple good QB drafted later on, but not necessarily following the order in which they are drafted.

[Zebrastripes]

Just now, Luxy312 said:

 

One of the two tag types can be undone such that they would not be stuck with a contract.  You are right though that a tag would virtually eliminate their ability to do anything in free agency until they moved him.  I believe that's the biggest obstacle to the tag.

I know it can be undone but I think the tag would put them over the cap.  I just don't see a team trading any assets for cousins when they know the redskins would have to pull the tag before free agency begins.

[RochesterRob]

7 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

Bridgewater was viewed as a consensus top pick for the large portion of his final year and into early February of his draft process.

 

Last year no one would have imagined Watson going 12 in early February

 

Geno Smith, Derek Carr, Manziel, Gabbert, Bortles, Clausen, Barkely, Leinart etc.  The list of mock drafters missing on QB draft positions in January/early February is long and distinguished.  Teams aren't saying where they value guys, we are dealing largely with speculation.

  Teams would be foolish to tip their hands now and waste all that effort scouting a  player.

[NeverOutNick]

Looking at the last few years drafts and seeing the trend of 1st round QBs bust less frequently (Wentz, Goff, Winston, Mariotta, Watson, Trubisky maybe even Mahomes) I am confident most GMs are getting better at evaluating the position. I hope Beane and company are in that club...I love this draft much more than the last few years. IMO there are 4 guys that have franchise QB potential and I think we know the 4 (in order: Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Mayfield). We've been in this situation in the past (2004) where we didn't trade up high enough and we end up with Losman instead of Eli, Ben or Rivers and we miss out on Rodgers the following year. Lets not sit and wait for Rudolph or White or any of these guys who aren't at the special level the top 4 guys are at. Yes they all have holes (just like any QB coming out of the draft except for maybe Luck) but they have great qualities as well. Darnold is my favorite (We'd likely need to move up into the top 2-3 to get him)! He has the quickest release I've seen from a college QB and he and Allen are built for Buffalo. Both of those guys also seem to have great personalities that the team and fans will fall in love with. Allen has a cannon! Sure he hasn't played great competition but his weapons were subpar as well and he showed up in bowl season and at the senior bowl. He's shown he has the ability and has the upside of a Big Ben. Rosen scares me injury/personality wise but that ball comes out beautifully and what touch on those passes. Mayfield has the IT factor. He's smaller than the rest but that brett favre attitude and fight will have his teammates rally around him. I don't know if Mayfield and Rosen's bodies will hold up in Buffalo like Darnold and Allen's should but I'm still willing to give any 4 of them a shot because each is a franchise changing QB and that's what we need more than anything else. Trade #21 and #22 (maybe a 2nd next year if need be) and move up into the top 10 to get our guy. Please don't settle for Rudolph or whomever falls to us. 

 

I'd also love to sign a guy like Bradford to a one year prove it deal while the rookie sits and learns if possible (Foles would be even better but that would cost us too much).

 

Go Bills!

[KingRex]

No they cannot expect to get a franchise QB with either of the two late mid round 1sts.

 

However, that's 'a great thing because what this TEAM needs is to use their 2-1sts and 2- 2nds to rebuild the oldest team in the league.  Giving away resources to obtain the next Andrew Luck (or Ryan Leaf would likely prove fatal to building a TEAM to go deep in the playoffs,

[Rockinon]

We have a lot of picks in the early rounds to really upgrade the roster.  I don't want to trade away that leverage for a maybe good QB.  I'd rather build a dominant team this year and then next year go for a QB.  Tyrod is good enough for another year especially if this new OC works out.  If by some miracle a really good QB falls in our laps, that's just gravy.  Trying to force a top QB pick by throwing all our leverage out the window is too risky. We have plenty of weaknesses on this roster that can be addressed.

 

My philosophy for this year's draft is "keep it simple, stupid".

[#34fan]

You have to know how to scout. -Period.

I happen to prefer a defensive round 1-3 over  rolling the dice on Mason frickin' Rudolph... I really don't believe this Daboll fella can coach anyway... Let's get Da'ron Payne in here,  plus a speedy linebacker... Then roll with a Journeyman until our kid comes out next draft.

[BuffaloBillyG]

3 hours ago, Rigotz said:

I've seen a lot of mock drafts that have us getting the fourth best or fifth best QB in the draft by staying at #21.

But that doesn't really seem realistic.

 

Lets look at the teams ahead of us:

1. Browns - Definitely need a QB

2. Giants - Definitely need a QB

5. Broncos - Definitely need a QB

6. Jets - Definitely need a QB

11. Dolphins - I could see them taking a QB (Tannehill is Meh)

12. Bengals - I could see them taking a QB (Dalton is Meh)

15. Cardinals - Definitely need a QB

17. Chargers - I could see them taking a QB (Rivers is old)

 

And lets not forget about the Saints and Steelers, who could trade up a few spots because Brees and Ben have what... 1-2 years left?

 

So ... that's 8 teams in front of us and 2 behind that probably need QBs.

Maybe Keenum / Cousins / Bridgewater fill two or three openings ... but ...

That doesn't exactly leave us with a top choice. What do you guys think?

 

 

 

Ok, look at it like this. The ones I have bolded may take a QB, but not likely in round 1. They would be teams, that I believe talk themselves into Lauletta/White/Falk and draft another position of need in the 1st.

 

The Giants could be added to that list as well, but I really think there's a shot they pull the trigger on Allen if anyone.

 

Of the Broncos/Jets/Cardinals/Browns I believe one of them should "win" the Cousins sweepstakes. Lets just say it's the Cards for the sake of argument. That would leave Broncos/Jets/Browns as almost definite to go QB early. 

 

Also, depending on how they handle the QB position, Minnesota and Jacksonville could be added to the QB mix.  It's going to be interesting and I believe there will be a ton of first round trades. Can't wait.

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, Rigotz said:

I've seen a lot of mock drafts that have us getting the fourth best or fifth best QB in the draft by staying at #21.

But that doesn't really seem realistic.

 

Lets look at the teams ahead of us:

1. Browns - Definitely need a QB

2. Giants - Definitely need a QB

5. Broncos - Definitely need a QB

6. Jets - Definitely need a QB

11. Dolphins - I could see them taking a QB (Tannehill is Meh)

12. Bengals - I could see them taking a QB (Dalton is Meh)

15. Cardinals - Definitely need a QB

17. Chargers - I could see them taking a QB (Rivers is old)

 

And lets not forget about the Saints and Steelers, who could trade up a few spots because Brees and Ben have what... 1-2 years left?

 

So ... that's 8 teams in front of us and 2 behind that probably need QBs.

Maybe Keenum / Cousins / Bridgewater fill two or three openings ... but ...

That doesn't exactly leave us with a top choice. What do you guys think?

 

Apparently you are of the "sky is falling" club.

 

Realistically, the Giants, Dolphins, Bengals or Chargers don't seem all that likely to draft QBs in the first round because they're already paying big $$$ for their starting QBs since adding a first round QB is likely to add $5-7 million for the rookie.  Plus, they likely have many other needs more pressing than getting a young QB who isn't going to help them much in the near future ... or they don't like the QB prospects as much as they like other prospects. 

 

I also can't see the Saints or Steelers trading up "a few spots" to get ahead of the Bills, either.  QBs available outside of the top 12 spots have simply been too prone to failure for smart organizations to trade up to get them.  Since 2000, only Chad Pennington, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, and Teddy Bridgewater have been successful coming out of the bottom of the first round.   A team would be better served to take a QB in the 2nd or 3rd than giving up more draft capital for a player likely to fail, and I think that most GMs understand that.

 

I think that Cousins ends up in Denver, with Jacksonville and maybe Arizona also possibilities, so I think it's entirely possible that one of the popular top prospects will be available  when the Bills' turn comes up at #21.   Then the question is whether the Bills like him enough to gamble or if they pass to take a player other than a QB that they like better.

[OldTimer1960]

3 hours ago, wppete said:

I would like to trade Tyrord for a 4th, sign Teddy Bridgewater as a FA and draft Mason Rudolph in the first round. 

If the Vike’ings let Bridgewater hit free agency, then there should be serious questions about his health.  Bridgewater had a VERY SERIOUS knee injury and is very questionable to come back to play at NFL level.

3 hours ago, T-Bomb said:

Who wants the 4th or 5th best lol.

I think that Miami was happy to take Dan Marino late in the 83 first round.  It just is not a very exact science.

[thurmant]

At  21 you are looking at someone like Jackson or Rudolph.  The top QBs will be gone by then.  Two different skill sets.  Take a chance on one of them, (which ever you like better), and build an offense around him.  If it's Jackson, then keeping Tyrod around kind of makes sense - same kind of player. 

[Big Turk]

Maybe...Aaron Rodgers went in the mid 20s...

 

Its a crap shoot. Nobody has any idea which if these QBs will turn out to be good and which ones will crap the bed. All of the analysis doesnt mean much once they step on the field in the NFL.

[Paul Costa]

I’d take Rudolph at #53. Unless Mayfield or Allen fall to us .

[Uncle Joe]

4 hours ago, purple haze said:

 

"Top prospect" is a nebulous term.  Perceived top prospects at all positions wash out yearly.  Players who aren't become All-Pros and Hall of Famers.  No one knows which players will be what.  If a player is good enough to be drafted in the first round they are a top prospect. 

 

Except anyone named Maybin.

[xRUSHx]

Draft a QB early and build around the kid. Drafting other positions first will just lead to them leaving after a few seasons like Watkins,MD and so on. We need a QB first to learn and build around. So sick of OBD waiting around for a franchise worthy QB to fall in the draft or to find one on another teams backup pile. Good teams draft QBs while Buffalo does not and ends up with the longest playoffless streak in NFL history. Thank god that is gone, thank you Cinci.

 

So many wasted seasons of this team needing so many players with lame excuses every off season to wait to draft a QB, the next draft has better prospects, there is no sure fire QB, wait till later in the draft said player will still be there and bla, bla, bla. Just stop it, go get a top talent in this draft at QB, go get what you want not wait and hope he falls to you. No excuses, if OBD screws this draft up by not taking a QB early again this staff deserves to be fired by year 3. Got a top 6 to pick from a very QB friendly draft so to not take one 1st or to move up for a better one would be a epic fail once again for OBD.

 

It would be nice to have a QB other teams don't game plan to make him be a QB. We all want a QB to be proud of, go get us a real talent at QB not some other teams backup with hopes to build a team first then hope the magic sky drops a franchise worthy QB in the next draft. Sick of waiting, do it this year, do it now.

Edited February 9, 2018 by xRUSHx

[purple haze]

5 hours ago, Uncle Joe said:

 

Except anyone named Maybin.

May in was an unfortunate wash out.  What contributed is to the first round status was his athleticism.  Too bad that athleticism didn't come in a bigger package.