BuffaloHokie13 Posted February 9, 2018 Posted February 9, 2018 Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said: I should have posted, Hokie. I read it and thought it was a pretty good job. No worries. I am genuinely interested in feedback on it as I'm still open to tweaking it, but I think the fact that the QBs available all rank 19th or worse based on their past 3 years (except Kirk), and they all rank 17th or worse (Except Kirk & Case) based on 2017 speaks to some level or accuracy.
SoTier Posted February 9, 2018 Posted February 9, 2018 12 hours ago, jrober38 said: If you separate it farther and take away the guys who went #1 overall, it's really freaking hard to find a QB unless you have the first pick. Most of the "successes" in the 1-5 range were all guys who went #1. Reality is that if we draft a QB this year, they're nothing more than a long shot of being successful. Odds are we'll be looking for someone again in 2-3 years. This. Go high or stay at home is the best way to get a QB. The number of #1 picks who have been busts over the last 16 years number just 2: 2002 - David Carr and 2007 - Ja'Marcus Russell. All the others have been at least modest successes: Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, and Andrew Luck. Jameis Winston (2015) and Jared Goff (2016) appear likely to be at least modest successes, too. I would add that being the consensus #1 pick in the entire draft regardless of position is important, too. I would only trade up to the #1 pick for that consensus #1 pick because that means he's the best prospect hands down. Of the successful #1 picks I listed, only Eli Manning and Alex Smith were not the best QBs in their draft class, and only Manning was a consensus #1 pick ... but he was in a generational QB draft class which will likely include 2 HOF QBs, and maybe 3. There is no QB in the 2018 draft who is the consensus #1 pick. In fact, there's no consensus on who's even the best QB since all of them have significant flaws. It's not like 2011 or 2015 or 2016 where there were two outstanding QB prospects that were clearly superior to all the other prospects, regardless of position, but maybe not necessarily to each other. That makes 2018 the wrong year to trade up very far to get a QB. Giving up 1 draft pick to move up to grab a QB they really, really like might be an acceptable risk. Giving much more in this draft to move up for a first round QB is playing Russian roulette.
BuffaloHokie13 Posted February 9, 2018 Posted February 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, SoTier said: There is no QB in the 2018 draft who is the consensus #1 pick. In fact, there's no consensus on who's even the best QB since all of them have significant flaws. It's not like 2011 or 2015 or 2016 where there were two outstanding QB prospects that were clearly superior to all the other prospects, regardless of position, but maybe not necessarily to each other. That makes 2018 the wrong year to trade up very far to get a QB. Giving up 1 draft pick to move up to grab a QB they really, really like might be an acceptable risk. Giving much more in this draft to move up for a first round QB is playing Russian roulette. I've got to disagree here. There's no consensus #1 because of the strength of the competition. If you take Darnold or Rosen and put them in 2017 or 2019 they are the clear #1 choice and it isn't even close. 1
Mat68 Posted February 9, 2018 Posted February 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, SoTier said: This. Go high or stay at home is the best way to get a QB. The number of #1 picks who have been busts over the last 16 years number just 2: 2002 - David Carr and 2007 - Ja'Marcus Russell. All the others have been at least modest successes: Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, and Andrew Luck. Jameis Winston (2015) and Jared Goff (2016) appear likely to be at least modest successes, too. I would add that being the consensus #1 pick in the entire draft regardless of position is important, too. I would only trade up to the #1 pick for that consensus #1 pick because that means he's the best prospect hands down. Of the successful #1 picks I listed, only Eli Manning and Alex Smith were not the best QBs in their draft class, and only Manning was a consensus #1 pick ... but he was in a generational QB draft class which will likely include 2 HOF QBs, and maybe 3. There is no QB in the 2018 draft who is the consensus #1 pick. In fact, there's no consensus on who's even the best QB since all of them have significant flaws. It's not like 2011 or 2015 or 2016 where there were two outstanding QB prospects that were clearly superior to all the other prospects, regardless of position, but maybe not necessarily to each other. That makes 2018 the wrong year to trade up very far to get a QB. Giving up 1 draft pick to move up to grab a QB they really, really like might be an acceptable risk. Giving much more in this draft to move up for a first round QB is playing Russian roulette. Comparable to other drafts this has higher rated Qbs. Seen multiple agencies have rated Rosen and Darnold higher than Wentz and Goeff when they came out. Im not saying it is a guarantee that both are going to be as successful but they have the higher potential than the fore mentioned. Allen had the best physical tools and arm in years, add in Mayfield and Jackson the level of ability in this class is very high. In lesser years and 4 of these guys would #1. There are more options does not mean no is worth it 1.
SoTier Posted February 9, 2018 Posted February 9, 2018 5 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said: Yes but many stars can be found in most rounds with the other positions especially RB ,QBs not as much. Exactly this. Maybe more star QBs would come out of other rounds if the QB position was such that more than 1 QB regularly played in games (such as DL rotations or RB substitutions) but that's not the nature of pro football. Most of the truly successful QBs who've come out of later rounds in the last 16 years were drafted lower for reasons really unrelated to their ability to play QB (ie, usually short or slightly built), and they benefited from being given real shots to start fairly early in their careers. 1
Batman1876 Posted February 9, 2018 Author Posted February 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I think that's a cop-out. There are certain QB performance metrics that correlate with successful QB performance, which can enable winning if the rest of the team is in place. All charts and criteria are not equal. Some can be shown to be more relevant than others. The Bills haven't started a QB in 20 years without extensive fan debate because for 20 years, they haven't had a QB who wasn't debatable. Being a long-term starter in the league is not necessarily what you want, unless the performance is such that the QB is enabling wins, or at worst not holding the team back. Probably the worst "poison pill" QB for the drafting team have been Alex Smith and Sam Bradford, who showed just enough flashes of talent that the team didn't want to move on from them, but who failed to perform consistently and well enough to enable winning (the rest of the team being there is of course in question) See my other post - I'm not sure whether or not a guy starts for multiple years is a good criterion for success I think we are looking for different things from the numbers. I'm not concerned with individual successes or failures I'm concerned with a general trend line, I picked the criteria I did you are free to disagree but it won't effect the general trend. The reason for that is there are successes and failures that are sure things Big Ben and Rogers on one side and Losman and Tebow on the other. The only real question is what to do with the middlers the Cutler's and Flacco's of the world. Because we have a number of sure failures and sure successes it does not matter too much how you parse those in the middle, so long as you try to be consistent. And because most of the sample sizes are large enough disagreeing about individual cases is unlikely to sway the data much. The exception in terms of large data set is the 6-10 range since only five were picked there, before Tannahill the best QB picked in that range was Trent Dilfer, yikes! In fact in order to get a player more successful than Dilfer or Tannehill you have to go all the way back to Phil Simms in 1979. In other words for the past 40 years or so the 6-10 range has been a wasteland for QBs. In other words I'm not looking for a fine point I'm looking for a broader trend.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 9, 2018 Posted February 9, 2018 44 minutes ago, HOUSE said: Ryan Tannihill a hit? The people down here near Miami would trade him for a 5th rounder That confirms my opinion of the poor "football intelligence" of whiny Phins fans. Tannehill's not Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, but he's a competent NFL QB and would draw significant interest on the FA market. If they chose to trade him, they could do far better than a 5th. If they chose to put a team around him, they could do better than 6-10, 8-5 with him 2 minutes ago, Batman1876 said: I think we are looking for different things from the numbers. I'm not concerned with individual successes or failures I'm concerned with a general trend line, I picked the criteria I did you are free to disagree but it won't effect the general trend. Your general trend is fine, it confirms the assessment that I and others have made by rigorous criteria. 1
SouthNYfan Posted February 9, 2018 Posted February 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: That confirms my opinion of the poor "football intelligence" of whiny Phins fans. Tannehill's not Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, but he's a competent NFL QB and would draw significant interest on the FA market. If they chose to trade him, they could do far better than a 5th. If they chose to put a team around him, they could do better than 6-10, 8-5 with him I'd take him in a heartbeat
SoTier Posted February 9, 2018 Posted February 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: I've got to disagree here. There's no consensus #1 because of the strength of the competition. If you take Darnold or Rosen and put them in 2017 or 2019 they are the clear #1 choice and it isn't even close. We'll have to agree to disagree. I'm not impressed with comparisons to a future draft class or a draft class in which only 1 first round rookie QB distinguished himself ... and that for only part of a season. Generally, drafts yield 1 franchise QB no matter how many prospects are taken in the first round, and usually that's the guy who's clearly head and shoulders better than any of the other QBs.
BuffaloHokie13 Posted February 9, 2018 Posted February 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, SoTier said: We'll have to agree to disagree. I'm not impressed with comparisons to a future draft class or a draft class in which only 1 first round rookie QB distinguished himself ... and that for only part of a season. Generally, drafts yield 1 franchise QB no matter how many prospects are taken in the first round, and usually that's the guy who's clearly head and shoulders better than any of the other QBs. And this year looks like it may yield 3 franchise QBs. So clearly it isn't the year to trade up...
SouthNYfan Posted February 9, 2018 Posted February 9, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: And this year looks like it may yield 3 franchise QBs. So clearly it isn't the year to trade up... Except that none of the top 4 will be avail at 21
BuffaloHokie13 Posted February 9, 2018 Posted February 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said: Except that none of the top 4 will be avail at 21 The second half of my post was tongue in cheek because the guy I'm talking with doesn't think a trade up is worth it because there isn't a consensus #1.
SouthNYfan Posted February 9, 2018 Posted February 9, 2018 12 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: The second half of my post was tongue in cheek because the guy I'm talking with doesn't think a trade up is worth it because there isn't a consensus #1. Ahh Makes sense I mean there isn't a consensus #1 There is a consensus darnold and Rosen will be solid starters at worst, and most believe Mayfield will be too. I think most of the fan-base would be happy with any of those 3 (with obvious personal preference) and nobody should be very upset if we got any one of them
SoTier Posted February 9, 2018 Posted February 9, 2018 4 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: And this year looks like it may yield 3 franchise QBs. So clearly it isn't the year to trade up... That's what many fans thought about the 2011 and 2012 drafts, too. They were howling because the Bills didn't draft Blane Gabbert or Christian Ponder or trade up to get Robert Griffin III. Aside from Newton, Luck, and maybe Tannehill (depending how you view him vs Dalton and Cousins) the best QBs from 2011 and 2012 came out of rounds other than Round 1 (Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins).
BuffaloHokie13 Posted February 9, 2018 Posted February 9, 2018 Just now, SoTier said: That's what many fans thought about the 2011 and 2012 drafts, too. They were howling because the Bills didn't draft Blane Gabbert or Christian Ponder or trade up to get Robert Griffin III. Aside from Newton, Luck, and maybe Tannehill (depending how you view him vs Dalton and Cousins) the best QBs from 2011 and 2012 came out of rounds other than Round 1 (Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins). Let's get one thing straight, the best QB from 2011 came out of the 6th round 1
Recommended Posts