So Much For The "Analytics Have No Place In Football" Crew Here

[BuffaloRush]

Back in 2013, when Uncle Russ Brandon announced his plan for a "robust analytics department," I'm pretty sure this is what he had in mind.  In 2010, Howard Rosenman hired a Harvard graduate, Alec Hanaby, with a background in economics and analytics as a special assistant to help out with personnel.  He made many key decisions that helped the team and he's now Vice President of Football operations. 

 

The article below discusses how Pederson relies on a 27 year old Dartmouth graduate named Ryan Paganetti, to dictate the crucial decisions on the field based on analytics.  

 

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/football/super-bowl/math-inclined-assistant-has-eagles-coach-doug-pedersons-ear/

 

I'm posting this only because when news broke of the Bills disbanding their very "robust" analytics department, there were several members here who said things like "analytics have no place no place in football" or "analytics work in baseball but no in football when you have 11 players every play."  

 

Sorry but I feel that the Eagles win last night was proof that yes, analytics DO have a place in football and if you have a coach who's smart enough to use the information to his advantage, you just might win.  

 

Want more proof?  Here you go:

 

This season, the Eagles converted 65.4 percent of fourth-down attempts, third-best in the NFL and first among teams with more than 15 attempts. They finished 17 of 26 overall. One of those nine failed fourth downs ended a game. On the other eight that led to an opponent drive, Philadelphia allowed no points.

Pederson is instrumental to the offense’s fourth-down success rate.

One example is communication.

Eagles coaches proactively consider whether to attempt a fourth-down conversion, their discussion beginning before a third down play — such as the Wentz incompletion preceding the Jeffery touchdown on Dec. 10 — or well prior to that. There are instances around the NFL when a head coach, indecisive on fourth down, must burn a timeout.

 

[Mango]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

Back in 2013, when Uncle Russ Brandon announced his plan for a "robust analytics department," I'm pretty sure this is what he had in mind.  In 2010, Howard Rosenman hired a Harvard graduate, Alec Hanaby, with a background in economics and analytics as a special assistant to help out with personnel.  He made many key decisions that helped the team and he's now Vice President of Football operations. 

 

The article below discusses how Pederson relies on a 27 year old Dartmouth graduate named Ryan Paganetti, to dictate the crucial decisions on the field based on analytics.  

 

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/football/super-bowl/math-inclined-assistant-has-eagles-coach-doug-pedersons-ear/

 

I'm posting this only because when news broke of the Bills disbanding their very "robust" analytics department, there were several members here who said things like "analytics have no place no place in football" or "analytics work in baseball but no in football when you have 11 players every play."  

 

Sorry but I feel that the Eagles win last night was proof that yes, analytics DO have a place in football and if you have a coach who's smart enough to use the information to his advantage, you just might win.  

 

Want more proof?  Here you go:

 

This season, the Eagles converted 65.4 percent of fourth-down attempts, third-best in the NFL and first among teams with more than 15 attempts. They finished 17 of 26 overall. One of those nine failed fourth downs ended a game. On the other eight that led to an opponent drive, Philadelphia allowed no points.

Pederson is instrumental to the offense’s fourth-down success rate.

One example is communication.

Eagles coaches proactively consider whether to attempt a fourth-down conversion, their discussion beginning before a third down play — such as the Wentz incompletion preceding the Jeffery touchdown on Dec. 10 — or well prior to that. There are instances around the NFL when a head coach, indecisive on fourth down, must burn a timeout.

 

 

 

There is a weird philosophy in the Bills fanbase where if it didn't work here it is some bad.

 

Analytics are good. The way the Buffalo Bills invested in analytics is bad. It didn't need to be disbanded. It needed to be revamped. 

[Mat68]

In football smart aggressivness normally pays off.  Forth and short should always be gos past the 40.  Its too early to know what Mcdermott will do.  They had to play the averages and he didnt truely trust his offense.

[BuffaloRush]

Just now, Mango said:

 

 

There is a weird philosophy in the Bills fanbase where if it didn't work here it is some bad.

 

Analytics are good. The way the Buffalo Bills invested in analytics is bad. It didn't need to be disbanded. It needed to be revamped. 

 

Yep not saying it’s everything.  But Philadelphia just displayed why ignoring analytics in football is well...ignorant

[cale]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

 

 

There is a weird philosophy in the Bills fanbase where if it didn't work here it is some bad.

 

Analytics are good. The way the Buffalo Bills invested in analytics is bad. It didn't need to be disbanded. It needed to be revamped. 

 

Wholeheartedly agree.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Many teams don’t understand how and where to use analytics. 

 

A key place for it is in these gameday situations. I have suggested for a long time that head coaches delegate complete authority to an analytics/strategy coach on gameday, who can make all the key calls (when to go for it on 4th down; when to challenge; etc). Let the head coach manage like a CEO and the analytics coach focus on those critical gameday decisions.

[Fadingpain]

Yes, this Superbowl was sort of a landmark event in showing the way for the future with NFL franchises.

 

Analytics played a big role in the game and anyone who ignores it going forward is doing so to their own detriment.

 

It can't be over-stated how conservative and slow to embrace change NFL culture is.

 

 

[Freddie's Dead]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said:

Back in 2013, when Uncle Russ Brandon announced his plan for a "robust analytics department," I'm pretty sure this is what he had in mind.  In 2010, Howard Rosenman hired a Harvard graduate, Alec Hanaby, with a background in economics and analytics as a special assistant to help out with personnel.  He made many key decisions that helped the team and he's now Vice President of Football operations. 

 

The article below discusses how Pederson relies on a 27 year old Dartmouth graduate named Ryan Paganetti, to dictate the crucial decisions on the field based on analytics.  

 

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/football/super-bowl/math-inclined-assistant-has-eagles-coach-doug-pedersons-ear/

 

I'm posting this only because when news broke of the Bills disbanding their very "robust" analytics department, there were several members here who said things like "analytics have no place no place in football" or "analytics work in baseball but no in football when you have 11 players every play."  

 

Sorry but I feel that the Eagles win last night was proof that yes, analytics DO have a place in football and if you have a coach who's smart enough to use the information to his advantage, you just might win.  

 

Want more proof?  Here you go:

 

This season, the Eagles converted 65.4 percent of fourth-down attempts, third-best in the NFL and first among teams with more than 15 attempts. They finished 17 of 26 overall. One of those nine failed fourth downs ended a game. On the other eight that led to an opponent drive, Philadelphia allowed no points.

Pederson is instrumental to the offense’s fourth-down success rate.

One example is communication.

Eagles coaches proactively consider whether to attempt a fourth-down conversion, their discussion beginning before a third down play — such as the Wentz incompletion preceding the Jeffery touchdown on Dec. 10 — or well prior to that. There are instances around the NFL when a head coach, indecisive on fourth down, must burn a timeout.

 

 

Great post OP.  This is the Bills in a nutshell.  For over a decade, and even now with McDermott, they only think one play at a time.  3rd and two late in the 4th QTR?  How many times have we seen the empty backfield, incomplete, punt, INSTEAD OF, run on 3rd, run on 4th to get the first down.  We've done this constantly during the drought, and I haven't seen any innovative thinking from the Bills offense this year on critical 3rd and short plays either.  How many times did we do the 4th and kitty this year, trying to draw them offsides?  Hopefully Daboll will bring some smarts in this area.  

[Nostradumbass]

19 minutes ago, JR in Pittsburgh said:

Many teams don’t understand how and where to use analytics. 

 

A key place for it is in these gameday situations. I have suggested for a long time that head coaches delegate complete authority to an analytics/strategy coach on gameday, who can make all the key calls (when to go for it on 4th down; when to challenge; etc). Let the head coach manage like a CEO and the analytics coach focus on those critical gameday decisions.

This x 1000

 

I wouldn't hire a head coach if he didn't indicate his plans to me to have a delegate upstairs communicating game time decisions 

 

Belichick has one 

[Thurman#1]

Didn't know the Eagles were big on analytics. But it isn't a big surprise. The best teams take an advantage where they can get one.

 

Exactly how you use this stuff is up in the air, it should be a bit different for each team. But every team ought to look carefully at where analytics can fit into their plans and help them achieve their goals.

[The Frankish Reich]

3 hours ago, Mango said:

 

 

There is a weird philosophy in the Bills fanbase where if it didn't work here it is some bad.

 

Analytics are good. The way the Buffalo Bills invested in analytics is bad. It didn't need to be disbanded. It needed to be revamped. 

Bills fans have always been more Mike Ditka than Bill Walsh. And that's fine - it actually makes for a better, more entertaining fan base. It only becomes a problem when Bills management starts to emulate Bills fandom.

[mannc]

10 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

Yes, this Superbowl was sort of a landmark event in showing the way for the future with NFL franchises.

 

Analytics played a big role in the game and anyone who ignores it going forward is doing so to their own detriment.

 

It can't be over-stated how conservative and slow to embrace change NFL culture is.

 

 

Absolutely.  Just listen to the brain-dead announcers: On the radio during the Super Bowl, Boomer absolutely savaged Pederson for going for the TD on fourth and goal from the 1 ("Take the points!"), as if the Eagles were playing the Bills in a 6-3 snoozefest.  As it turned out, of course, they needed every point they could get.  And of course it was completely lost on Boomer that if the Eagles had gone for it and failed, the Pats would take over on their own 1-yard line. 

 

It's entirely possible that the Bills did have a "robust" analytics department, but that McDermott just decided to ignore it.  If so, that would be a huge problem.     

[row_33]

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Didn't know the Eagles were big on analytics. But it isn't a big surprise. The best teams take an advantage where they can get one.

 

Exactly how you use this stuff is up in the air, it should be a bit different for each team. But every team ought to look carefully at where analytics can fit into their plans and help them achieve their goals.

 

when a team wins the analytics crowd runs in front of the lead car of the victory parade

 

 

[mannc]

8 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

when a team wins the analytics crowd runs in front of the lead car of the victory parade

 

 

What a bizarre comment.  The Patriots have been ahead of the curve on analytics for many years.  It’s not a new thing or some kind of fad.

[row_33]

8 minutes ago, mannc said:

What a bizarre comment.  The Patriots have been ahead of the curve on analytics for many years.  It’s not a new thing or some kind of fad.

 

analytics can mean anything

 

if you see them as Utopia in a quasi-religious experience you can adopt any success to them.

 

 

The Red Sox spent roughly 1% less than the Yankees and said it was analytics when they won World Series, that was really going out on a ledge there...

 

 

[LeGOATski]

Analytics works for game situations, yes.

 

The question has always been whether or not it works for building a roster.

[Koko78]

10 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Analytics works for game situations, yes.

 

The question has always been whether or not it works for building a roster.

 

Using statistics for game situations isn't exactly new, and it's something every team does. Hell, Marv Levy had binder after binder after binder of statistical information on opposing offenses and defenses when he was coaching in the 80's and 90's. Any coach worth a crap knows that his opponent runs a certain defense x% of the time in a given situation.

 

The OP is trying to confuse analyses of opponent tendencies and Moneyball-type analytics.

[AmishRifle]

Heard the same topic on a nighttime CBS Sports Radio show and they detailed how Philly uses it and how the booth to field communication works in critical gametime decisions.  I will caution though that the decision to assume risk needs to be supported by a good playcall and great execution!  The missed extra point and subsequent misses on two point conversions, chasing the missed extra point, set up the situation of a potential game tying touchdown and 2 point conversion for the Pats at the end.  Could’ve been a completely different conversation if the Pats came back.

[mannc]

12 minutes ago, Koko78 said:

 

Using statistics for game situations isn't exactly new, and it's something every team does. Hell, Marv Levy had binder after binder after binder of statistical information on opposing offenses and defenses when he was coaching in the 80's and 90's. Any coach worth a crap knows that his opponent runs a certain defense x% of the time in a given situation.

 

The OP is trying to confuse analyses of opponent tendencies and Moneyball-type analytics.

No, he's not.  That's what you're doing.  He's talking about core football analytics, which involves game-time decisions such as when to punt, kick a FG or go for it on fourth down. 

[PIZ]

Good QB play can make a lot of ideas look correct.  I wouldn't consider any of this factual, unless you have a good QB in place.  Take the Eagles current roster and put Tyrod Taylor and Nathan Peterman in the places of Wentz and Foles and see how this plan works.

Edited February 6, 2018 by PIZ